Following on the heels of the Running Back Primer from last week, it is time to give an overview of the 2014 wide receiver class from a statistical perspective before the all-important NFL combine and pro day season. Like the running backs, the model accounts for their age when entering the NFL, their age-weighted college production, as well as their measureable athleticism. The receivers are the class of this year’s skill position crop, both in terms of depth and top-end options. They are grouped by how their overall score is distributed across the various categories. Each category operates on a 1-100 range and is weighted together to form their overall score.
As a point of reference there have been just 26 receivers with an overall score of greater than 80 since 1999 heading into this draft class. Many of them are the names one would expect like Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Dez Bryant, and Demaryius Thomas. Two less-heralded receivers, Pierre Garcon and Miles Austin, also surpassed the lofty benchmark, both turning into quality fantasy options down the line. The 2014 class has two receivers currently above this benchmark with Donte Moncrief, Sammy Watkins, and Mike Evans. Jordan Matthews and Allen Robinson also have a shot to join the heralded group with strong performances at the combine.
Balanced Prospects
*A score of at least 60 across all categories, ranked by overall score
Donte Moncrief
Moncrief has an enviable size-speed combination in the area of Andre Johnson and Demaryius Thomas. Any 40-time around 4.50 is perfectly acceptable for his size and at a shade over 21 years old come September to start his NFL career, he is one of the youngest prospects in the past 15 years. He had a subpar final college season, but did breakout at the tender age of 19 by nearly doubling the team market share expected by a drafted receiver in his age 19 campaign. Moncrief is getting a little bit lost in the fantasy shuffle amid the Sammy Watkins and Mike Evans talk since the season ended, primed to be a value as the NFL draft approaches.
Sammy Watkins
Watkins has the unbridled love of most dynasty and draft analysts, including a projection to be a top-15 select come NFL draft time. Watkins is one of a handful of receivers with that ‘blow up the combine’ type potential. His 6’1” estimated height is on the short side for historical first round receivers, so a sub-4.45 40-time would be preferable to balance out the equation. The good news is Watkins has a thicker frame which projects well as an after-the-catch performer at the next level. His production score of 80 is around Donte Moncrief and Allen Robinson of the notable receivers this season. Watkins got there with an up-and-down college progression. His weighted score as an 18-year-old was one of the best on record, rivaling Keenan Allen, Michael Floyd, and Randall Cobb as other recent 18-year-old college phenoms. In the two years since then, Watkins lagged as a 19-year-old behind Deandre Hopkins at Clemson, a first rounder in his own right, and then had a volume-based year at age 20 which was merely above average. Overall, that makes Watkins a top prospect with some question marks regarding his initial dynasty placement in the rankings.
Mike Evans
Evans is an example of using market share instead of raw receiving statistics. Like Watkins in 2013, Evans was a non-dominant part of a juggernaut passing attack. In his short college career, Evans topped out with a weighted market share score of 30 as a 20-year-old. That is a little above-average, but rather light for a receiver projected to be a first round pick in the NFL draft. The previous receiver to have not eclipsed Evans’ career-high market share of 30 are: Percy Harvin (dual threat, hard to gauge as pure receiver prospect), Jeremy Maclin, Ted Ginn Jr, Javon Walker, and Travis Taylor. Outside of Walker, however, those receivers all lacked any sort of prototypical size. The lowest production score of all first round receivers at least 6’4” since 1999 is Jonathan Baldwin’s mark of 65. The rest are at 80 or above. So Mike Evans’ 63 is definitely front and center as a legitimate concern. That said, Evans gets over the threshold of a 60 production score, a baseline level to be a balanced receiver prospect.
Jordan Matthews
Amidst all the underclassmen in this year’s crop, Matthews dominated the Vanderbilt passing game and progressed in terms of weighted market share every collegiate season en route to a 95 production score. It is unlikely Matthews wows with gaudy combine times, but has already logged a solid arm measurement along with oven mitt-like hand size during the all-star game circuit in January. Matthews checks all the boxes and while a handful of receivers are likely to get drafted higher come May, he belongs near the top of his NFL draft tier.
Allen Robinson
Robinson, like Moncrief, is a little under the radar behind the more flashy names. Robinson checks all the boxes from age to size to speed to production. He is the second-youngest receiver in the class behind Brandin Cook and production score of 75 is right alongside Moncrief and Watkins. Robinson put up two quality seasons at 19 and 20 years old, both at least 40% better than the average drafted receiver at those check points. A 40 time in the low to mid-4.5s is fine as Robinson fits in the A.J. Green-type mold of receiver more than the overtly athletic tier.
Davante Adams
Adams has the most combine pressure of the balanced receiver prospects. His production score bests all but Jordan Matthews of this group, but his athleticism score lags behind all of them by at least 15%. A 40 time in the 4.45-4.50 range would be helpful for his projected size to complement his two solid college seasons of production. Adams, like Robinson is on track to be a value point amidst a crowded top-10 group of 2014 rookie receivers.
More Athlete than Production
*Typically they are the high-risk variety of receivers that can hit if things come together and bust at a much higher rate than their more well-rounded peers.
Cody Latimer
Latimer falls into the Mike Evans-light category. His athleticism score and production score are in the ballpark of Evans and is an absolute afterthought at this point in the draft process. White not mining twitter every hour for a Cody Latimer name drop, I have yet to hear a mention of his name once. Latimer fits the size requirements for an outside receiver if he confirms the estimated 6’2” and 210+ pounds in the coming weeks. He, like so many receivers in this class, will be under 22 years old for the 2014 season. His top season of production was a 27 market share, close to Evans’ 30, both a uninspiring for a projectable NFL outside receiver.
Brandon Coleman
Coleman fits into the Evans and Latimer range as a prospect as well, that athlete that needed to some more at the college level. At 6’5”, Coleman has that shine of ‘what if.’ Like Moncrief and Watkins, Coleman’s progression in college did not happen from a market share perspective. Part of that was the horrific play of the Rutgers quarterbacks this past season, but a truly impactful receiver can elevate an offense as well. Two sides of the coin and both were failing to find traction for Coleman in 2013. Coleman will be on the hot seat at the combine as he could very well run in the 4.60+ range and lag in the other drills. If Coleman runs in that range, he will join a rough set of comparable receivers with the ‘big and slow’ label like Brandon Kaufman, Malcolm Kelly, Dwayne Jarrett, and Ernest Wilford of years past.
Kelvin Benjamin
To sum up Benjamin in a single sentence: he is an older, half-the-production version of Mike Evans. The risk of Evans was discussed in his capsule and Benjamin is even more of a projection-based proposition. Benjamin topped out with a market share of 30 despite being two-to-three years older than his opponents week in and week out last season. He qualifies as a one-hit wonder, which carries far more risk than similarly-drafted receivers in the past. Riley Cooper and Marko Mitchell are two big-bodied names from the historical database that fit Benjamin’s 21 and 22-year-old collegiate seasons. Unfortunately both were late round picks and Benjamin is a hot name to go in the top-50 range come early May. A sub-4.50 time in the 40 would help his projection quite a bit.
Martavis Bryant
Finishing out this category of athletes lacking production, but with passable overall scores, is Martavis Bryant. He will be intriguing if he logs a sub-4.40 time at his height, but consider him the highest of risk in this category. Bryant did not even eclipse a market share of 20 in any college season. Not one receiver prospect since 1999 has emerged to produce above-baseline value in fantasy with a production progression like Bryant’s to-date.
More Production than Athlete
*From a probability standpoint, this is considered a better historical group than the more athletic group above.
Jarvis Landry
Landry was a well-above-average producer in his final two college seasons. That is paired with his lagging size and estimated speed at the upcoming combine. Landry, like Marqise Lee, fits into the Santonio Holmes mold in terms of production and size. That translates to an above-average secondary receiver at the NFL level, but one likely to underwhelm with a full-on lead role in an offense for long.
Brandin Cooks
Cooks is the Randall Cobb-esque wild card in this receiver class. In an ideal situation in the NFL, Cooks could thrive. Otherwise, he may lack the overt athleticism for his size to win on his own. At 5’10” it is already an uphill climb to prominence. His age (youngest in the class) and rock solid production at 17, 18, and 19 years old are what props up his overall score.
Paul Richardson
Richardson is a poor man’s version of Cooks being a year and a half older and having one of the lowest projected BMI marks at the position. Can he hold up as even a role player in the NFL? That limits his fantasy worth, regardless of his good college production, tremendously.
Odell Beckham, Jr.
Beckham lags behind teammate Jarvis Landry just slightly in production in 2013 and even more so in 2012. Beckham has a little more upside to improve on his overall marks through combine performance, but that would merely even things with Landry, Cooks, and a few of the others that are currently above of him.
Marqise Lee
Lee is basically an older version of Beckham in a lot of ways. Similar expected athlete score post-combine and similar age-weighted production. Lee had great 19 and 20-year-old seasons, overshadowing a top-50 pick in his own right in Robert Woods at USC, but lagged through an injury-laden final college season. The historical prospects with a similar production dive in their final season are all of the late-round variety. If Lee does go in the first round like he is currently projected, his less-than-stellar overall score in the mid-50s fits more with the Peter Warrick types of prior draft classes than the high upside, long-term dynasty assets with elite projection scores.
Other Notable Names
Alex Neutz
Neutz is likely to have subpar athletic numbers post-combine, but was one of the more productive players in college from this draft class. He fell off some in his final season at Buffalo, but still was far above average for his age. His 40 time will be crucial as he could be in that dicey 4.55-4.65 range that can push a prospect like Neutz down draft boards significantly.
Cody Hoffman
Hoffman is in the top 20% of all receiver prospects in terms of projected athleticism and age-weighted production. His big ding is being 23.5 years old when the season kicks off. He already logged good arm length and hand size in January on the all-star game circuit, a plus heading into the drills. A 40 time in the mid or low 4.5 range would be a big plus with his 6’4” frame. Many top-64 picks grace Hoffman’s early comps with a high hit rate for future fantasy difference-makers. The main difference will be Hoffman’s size-adjusted speed. Ultimately lagging in that area keeps him closer to guys like Brian Robiskie and Roy Williams than the high-level alternatives with ‘freakier’ size-speed combinations.
Chris Boyd
Boyd is one of the watch players in this class. He is a little on the lighter side for his height, but has above-average production and is younger enough to like his progression continuing into the NFL. His off-the-field concerns are the biggest wild card in his ultimate draft position. One of the more intriguing elements of his profile was his 40 market share as a 19-year-old. That will be three years in the rear-view mirror come the 2014 season, but young college players like Boyd achieving levels like that means the upside is at least present. Many top-100 picks fill his early comparable list
Quincy Enunwa
Enunwa could also fit in the ‘more athlete than production’ category with prototypical size and likely to post good combine numbers to boot. On the flip side, he was a one-hit wonder at Nebraska with a very good 21-year-old season, but was nearly invisible prior to that in his college career. Players that fit that profile have a lower than average hit rate outside the rare Brandon Marshall or Anquan Boldin type that turned into a viable fantasy starter.
Michael Campanero
Campanero was productive and has a thick build, but that is about where his positive metrics end. As one of the shortest receiver prospects at 5’9’, he will need to be one of the rare successes with that profile. Can he run fast enough to be a Kendall Wright-type without the first round draft pedigree? If not, he falls into the class where it is pretty much Wes Welker or bust.
Robert Herron
Herron is in the mold of Michael Campanero, but a shell of the production Campanero had in college. Herron is likely to test much better at the combine though, making him a small, thick, projection-type player likely to go on day three of the draft at best. No prospect since 1999 with his size, projected athleticism, and production trio of metrics has turned into a top-36 type fantasy option. Previous receivers of his stature that showed lasting success in the NFL had the following characteristic in common: they all have very good college seasons early in their career arc (age 18 or 19). Herron did the exact opposite by not flashing any real market share prowess until well after 20 years old. The odds are stacked against him.
L’Damian Washington
Washington fits the mold of non-production, but physically-enticing prospect. His A.J. Green height and build lacks any of the college stats to back it up and at 23 years old as an NFL rookie, it is hard to think the light suddenly comes on to turn the size and athleticism into fantasy-worthy statistics. In the L’Damian Washington mold, add Geraldo Boldewijn of Boise State and Marcus Lucas from Missouri as athletically intriguing but production-limited projects to monitor.
Josh Huff
Huff is another small, thick receiver in this class. His athleticism (combine-pending) is in the average range and his production was below average at Oregon. If he blows away the combine drills, he has a Victor Cruz-light type of profile. Other than that scenario, Huff blends in to the valueless fantasy masses of the past 15 years.
Jared Abbrederis
Abbrederis is one of the more well-known receivers on this list, but scored poorly in the projection model. Even if he goes on day two of the draft, he will be categorized as a player to shy away from within that tier of receivers. His final three college seasons did not show much progression from average production to difference-maker, which is worrisome for older prospects coming out. If they stay in school when they are older than their peers, it is important to dominate more and more as time passes. Abbrederis did not do that at 21 and 22 years old at Wisconsin.
Corey Brown
Brown fits into the intriguing athleticism, but lacking size and production category. High-risk and even if he ‘hits’ at the next level, it is likely to be of the low-ceiling variety. In terms of comparable players, Brown, at best, is a T.J. Graham or LaVon Brazill-type in the NFL.
Kevin Norwood
Norwood is a worse version of Corey Brown. He has more name value, but as one of the least age-adjusted receiver prospects of the last 15 years, there is little to see here from a probability standpoint.
Tevin Reese
Reese has one of the lowest overall projection scores in the 2014 receiver class heading into the combine. He is short, slight, and was unproductive at Baylor. His saving grace is pure speed. Reese could post a time in the 4.3s in the 40, which automatically puts him into a higher tier than his other metrics would otherwise indicate. While Reese would not have the college resume or upside being 21 years old entering the NFL, his physical profile would be in the range of DeSean Jackson or Ted Ginn Jr, Jr. of years past. A long shot, but can carve a speed role in the NFL.
Jeremy Gallon
Gallon is yet another short, thick, but rather unproductive receiver prospect. He finally had a good college season, market share-wise, but it came at the age of 23, well older than his collegiate peers. He will be one of the oldest prospects of this class and only his stocky build even approaches average marks in his projection profile.
Willie Snead
Snead had good production, but lacks the size or athleticism to round out his projection profile. He is a hot seat player in danger of running in the 4.6s in the 40-yard dash. For a receiver likely less than 6’0”, that is a big concern.
Eric Thomas
At an estimated 6’1” and over 200 pounds, Thomas has the build to complement his above-average production (two seasons with weighted market shares of 35 or more). Like Snead and a few others, his speed will be in question until he logs quality times.
T.J. Jones
Jones has some good qualities to his game from film study, but the projection model is not so kind. He statistically progressed through his four seasons at Notre Dame, but topped out with forgettable seasons of 26 and 33 market shares in his final two years. Teammate Davaris Daniels probably surpasses Jones over the next season or two as the next Fighting Irish NFL receiver prospect. With middling size and athleticism, Jones is one of those ‘blends into the faceless masses’ type prospects in this year’s class.
Austin Franklin
Franklin is yet another player that produced more than his size and athleticism would dictate at the college level. He was a big fish in the small pool of New Mexico State, but without a surprise performance in the drills, he slots in the WR40-60 range among his 2014 peers.
Tracy Moore
Moore has a good build and passable estimated speed heading into the combine and pro day circuit. That promise did not translate into difference-making production at Oklahoma State, however, as he failed to surpass a market share of 30 despite five collegiate seasons.
Shaquelle Evans
Love the name, but a career-high market share of 30 came at 22 years old (below average for that age) and that nearly doubled his second-best year at UCLA. He has athletic upside worth monitoring, so consider him an underrated name pending his drill times.
Mike Davis
After a decent 19-year-old season, Davis had some promise at Texas. Since then he had two forgettable seasons and popped with an above-average final year. He has big hands, a plus, and could be in the mix to run in the 4.45-4.50 range. If that happens, Davis is back on the radar in the WR30-40 range in this draft.
Bruce Ellington
Ellington is yet another thick and short target with underwhelming production throughout his college career. If he logs a time in the 4.4s then he becomes worthy of more analysis, but as it stands his highlight college season with a 27 market share (at 22 years old) is a middling mark for a receiver lacking starting outside receiver measurements.
Chandler Jones
Jones did progress at San Jose State all the way to a noteworthy weighted market share of 39 in his final season. His 12.4 career yards-per-catch leave something to be desired though. If he could not produce big plays against lesser college competition, that calls into question the transition to the NFL. He already recorded a very small hand size in January, which further cements the case that Jones will likely be an afterthought in months instead of years for fantasy owners.
Noel Grigsby
Chandler Jones’ teammate at San Jose State is also draft eligible. Also lacking even average size or projected athleticism, Grigsby had a promising 18-year-old season which unfortunately was followed by three straight underwhelming years where Jones zoomed past time on the same team.
Eric Ward
Ward adds to the group of middling producers that did not progress as they moved through their college careers. Add to that he will be a 24-year-old NFL rookie and an 11.2 career yards-per-catch mark at Texas Tech and things are bleak.
Jamarcus Nelson
The only thing for Nelson to hang his hat on as a prospect is an impressive weighted market share of 46 in his final season (still attempting to find a birthdate for Nelson to set his age progression). That was his lone season above even a middling mark of 25 along the way. Nelson is another sub six-foot and thin option that needs some quality drill times.
Devin Street
Street has the height (projected 6’3”), but could weigh in at less than 200 pounds and run in the mid-4.5s. That combination puts him in the higher risk category when combined with a production arc that took him until 22 years old to log an above-age-adjusted season at Pittsburgh.
Alex Amidon
Amidon did have back-to-back quality seasons at Boston College in his final two years. Like many receivers in this group, he has his own share of warts being on the old side (23.5 years old for Week 1) and likely being well under 200 pounds.
Josh Stewart
Stewart is a smaller receiver, estimated to run in the low 4.5s and did not reach even a 25 market share in three seasons at Oklahoma State. He has one of the lowest overall projection scores in this receiver class.
Small School Names to Know
Jordan Harris
Harris fits the small school profile to turn into a valued fantasy asset in the NFL. He has a thicker build than 99% of small school receivers, had elite production marks at 19 and 20 years of age, and is young enough to not be dinged from an age standpoint. While he lacks an inch or two to be in the Miles Austin class of prospects, he has everything else.
Albert Wilson
Wilson is a big-bodied receiver, like Harris, that is in the top 5% of college producers in the last 15 years. At 5’9” or so, he fits a quasi-running back mold. With three straight seasons of 45+ market share scores (elite level), Wilson was no fluke as the main offensive weapon at Georgia State. There are many top-100 picks on Wilson’s comparable prospects list including guys like Golden Tate, Josh Reed, and Deion Branch. While completely off the radar at this stage, Wilson is a watch list player to stick on a roster.
Jeff Janis
Janis is probably the most talked about small school receiver this year. He grades out in the projection model a little below Jordan Harris and Albert Wilson, but has a very good score compared to historical small school pass catchers. His production is in the top 10% category and his size and straight line speed will likely check the boxes in the coming weeks. Janis’ very small hands are a concern as the track record for receivers with smaller than 9” hands is not a glowing recommendation. Even the top-100 picks on that list had their share of concerns attempting to be dependable fantasy options in their career. Janis will have some buzz come NFL draft time, but is not in the locked-and-loaded Miles Austin type tier for small school prospects.
Corey Washington
Washington has solid numbers for an under-the-radar Newberry prospect, including an impressive weighted market share of 51 his final season (prospect average of 30 at that age). The big lynchpin for Washington is his skinny frame combined with his expected slow 40 time. That combination can sour an otherwise promising projection resume.
Freddie Martino
From North Greenville, Martino has decent wheels for his size, but at a likely 6’0”, he is a long-shot small schooler lagging behind Washington, Janis, and a few others in production against lesser competition.
Erik Lora
Consider Lora a poor man’s version of Josh Huff, Freddie Martino, and a host of other smaller, but thick enough receivers trying to carve out a secondary receiver role in the NFL.
Matt Hazel
It is tough to find optimal historical statistics for Coastal Carolina, but Hazel has projected size and speed to keep him on the radar at least until his official measurements and drill times come in. He finished with a market of 29 in his final season, a rather forgettable mark for a non-BCS NFL hopeful.
Greg Hardin
Hardin dominated the passing game at North Dakota with three seasons of a market share greater than 40, including a season of 60 in his first season when many receivers are ahead of the game putting up half of those numbers. At an estimated 5’10” and not a burner, Hardin is long shot even with his production, to carve out an NFL role.
Torrence Allen
Allen, a West Texas A&M product, has one of the lowest overall scores among the 2014 class. Outside of a surprising measurements and times, he will fall off the radar in the coming months.
Lee Kurfis
Kurfis has a slight build, which downgrades his decent height. His production maxed out with a slightly above-average final college season, not what small school receivers need to do for a decent shot at future fantasy production.
The next installment will analyze the 2014 rookie crop of tight ends with their pre-combine physical estimates and their weighted college production. Questions, comments, and ideas for future articles are welcomed by emailing Parsons@Footballguys.com.
