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SFB Running Diary II

Snapshots from the middle rounds of our staff's Scott Fish Bowl VII discussion

Yes, #SFB7 has been dominating your Twitter feed. If you're involved, or merely following the action, you know it's Scott Fish Bowl 7 (SFB7) that we're all discussing. With 13 of us individual Footballguys participating, it was only a matter of time until we started talking SFB7 heavily at the e-watercooler. And the floodgates have opened; Scott Fish's never-boring format has us FBGs joining brains and poring over the wild scoring/lineup requirements, as well as the wonky ADPs that it creates. In the process, we've churned out a lot of interesting overall (non-SFB) discussion, and we wanted to pass as much of it as we can manage along to all of you.

See Part I of our discussions here.

On Mid-Round Wide Receivers, Tight Ends, and Their Tricky Scott Fish Bowl ADPs

Ryan Hester 10:45am

I have this feeling that if I go two WR here, in Round 11, I'm going to be starting a TON of WRs each week in a league where WR scoring isn't a premium. However, taking any of these crap-tastic RBs here probably means the SAME result (only with lesser WR options).

Daniel Simpkins 10:46am

I wouldn't. You have two good ones and you can extract the most value by going elsewhere with this pick. You'll still have a shot at some of those guys later. It's a pretty flat tier.

Ryan, what TEs left?

Ryan Hester 10:47am

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I like Hooper, but I don't think he's worth taking over Jackson or Benjamin here. And I can get any of those others later, I think (save for Fiedo and Cook perhaps)

Justin Howe 10:49am 

I would probably prioritize Hooper a hair above DJax, honestly, in this format.

Daniel Simpkins 10:50am

I agree with Justin on that.

Ryan Hester 10:51am

Fair points

Justin Bonnema 2:15pm

Only 19 WRs in seven rounds. 

So different than every other league I play in.

Ryan Hester 2:23pm

We had 22 WRs in 7 rounds, Justin - indeed, it is weird

But I like it...as a notorious late-round QB and TE enthusiast, this gives me an opportunity to own different players (i.e. I won't own Kelce anywhere else this year)

Alessandro Miglio 2:40pm

Had I known that WRs would fall so far I would have started differently. That said, owning the two top receivers isn't so bad...

Justin Bonnema 2:41pm

Same here Alessandro, I would have gone QB over Julio

(maybe)

Daniel Simpkins 3:09pm

Getting close to making my next picks. Board is looking pretty flat all over, other than at WR.

Think I need to keep pounding RBs? Tempting to take RB and Marvin Jones.

Justin Bonnema 3:11pm

Thoughts on Tyrell Williams?

Daniel Simpkins 3:13pm

I'm not as high on him as our projectors.

Phil Alexander 3:13pm

I like Tyrell, Enunwa, and Ginn more than Marvin tbh

Justin Bonnema 3:13pm

Same on Tyrell and Enunwa

Daniel Simpkins 3:14pm

Ginn I could see filling the Cooks role and moving the chains, but think he'll be around later due to disgust factor.

Ryan Hester 3:14pm

Ginn over Marvin Jones, Phil? I think we finally have our first disagreement. I like Marvin at his price.

But I do like Tyrell and Enunwa over Jones. I probably like Tyrell the best of the three, and his FFCalculator ADP is lowest.

Justin Bonnema 3:16pm

Same

Jones and Ginn are basically a tie for me

Will take Brees’ offense over Stafford

Phil Alexander 3:18pm

I don't know. Isn't Marvin Jones the very definition of a mediocre fantasy football asset? And isn't Ted Ginn playing on the fast track with Drew Brees?

Justin Bonnema 3:19pm

Ginn is legit until Brees' arm falls off

Justin Howe 3:43pm 

I'm gonna get bold here: gimme Will Fuller over Marvin or Ginn

Devin Knotts 3:44pm

Can Watson throw the ball far enough to Fuller?

Justin Howe 3:44pm 

Dunno but Fuller gets a lot of short-ball work too. Screens, quick slants

Devin Knotts 3:45pm

I see Braxton Miller taking some of that short-ball work away from Fuller

Phil Alexander 3:53pm

Also, over/under 25% target market share for Enunwa?

Justin Howe 3:57pm 

I have 22.5% for Enunwa

Could be low, though, I may have the two rookies projected too high

Justin Bonnema 3:58pm

Justin where do you have ASJ?

Justin Howe 3:58pm 

11.0% but trending upward

Justin Bonnema 3:59pm

I’m thinking he could be a great late-round option both in SFB and others. But hasn't done anything to justify it

Justin Howe 3:59pm 

Still only comes in 22nd in per-game projection though. 32-445-4 over 14 games and that's gotta be an absolute ceiling, right?

Phil Alexander 4:01pm

Yeah, even if he's seriously recommitted himself, he's still in that offense

I loved him coming out of college FWIW

Justin Howe 4:01pm 

Think I prefer Njoku and Higbee from that tier. Vernon Davis too.

Justin Bonnema 4:01pm

ASJ has metrics and nothing else? 

Ryan Hester 4:01pm

you know who else was considered a good prospect coming out of college...who played for the Jets (and did so during years where they actually had an offense...? Jace Amaro

(I'll show myself out)

Justin Bonnema 12:12pm

Parker/Benjamin seem smart here?

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Justin Howe 12:13pm

I'm not big on Parker.. Benjamin seems definite, but I'd probably pair w/ Tyrell or Enunwa

Or maybe wait 2 rounds and get the same numbers from Rishard!

Phil Alexander 12:14pm

I think I had the same board when I went Benjamin/John Brown

Justin Howe 12:17pm 

Justin B, I think I go Benjamin/Tyrell here

Justin Bonnema 12:17pm

That's kind of where my heart is at but Rivers is a spread it around offense. No love for Cobb or Maclin (not pictured)

Justin Howe 12:19pm 

Well, he is and he isn't. They were dead last in 3WR sets last year. That'll change some with Allen around but Tyrell should be close to an every-snap guy. Williams won't be ready, Inman is depth, and TBenjamin might be largely out of the picture.

And an injury to Allen just skyrockets Tyrell's value.

Now, Tyrell is going later ADP-wise. So you can probably scoop him, Rishard, or even Cobb next round, and I don't see a ceiling dropoff at all. I might take Benjamin, then use the second pick to fortify something else.

Justin Bonnema 12:25pm

I suppose I could go Witten here and pray

Justin Howe 12:26pm 

Think I go Brate

Daniel Simpkins 12:26pm

Shocked Brate is still there. I agree with Justin.

Justin Howe 12:27pm 

By ADP he'll likely be gone by your next pick. Hooper is already gone.  I'd rather have Rishard/Tyrell + Brate than Parker/Witten.

Justin Bonnema 12:27pm

Brate it is. Took Kelvin Benjamin too

Justin Howe 12:28pm 

That's the right call I'd say.

Probably 5-7 very similar WR on your board there

Justin Bonnema 12:28pm

Thanks fellas

Yeah, I'm fine with waiting rather than reaching for the likes of Ty or Parker. 

I'll let Maclin and Cobb fall to me

Brate at least seals up my weakest position a little bit

Justin Howe 12:31pm 

I have the same dilemma this round (10). Brate or virtually the same WR group as you. Not on the turn though

Rank this cohort for me: KBenjamin, Tyrell, Pryor, Cobb, Garcon, Maclin

Justin Bonnema 12:33pm

For me: KB, Pryor, Maclin, Ty, Cobb, Garcon

But I'll admit Pryor is a huge unknown, so probably could move him lower. I really like Maclin in Baltimore with no TEs and mediocre backs (Woodhead notwithstanding). 

Didn't Flacco lead the league in pass attempts last year?

Justin Howe 12:35pm 

I like Maclin more and more every day. Think I go KB, Maclin, Pryor, Tyrell, Cobb, Garcon

Ryan Hester 12:36pm

Hey Justin B, Brees did - by 1. But BAL led the NFL two straight years.

Justin Bonnema 12:36pm

Yet they ran 3WR sets only 56% of the time, according to Sharp football. That probably says something about talent. 

Justin Howe 12:41pm

I think Maclin will be every-down and Perriman takes the hit

In fact, I think both Maclin and Wallace make a run at 70 catches.

Justin Bonnema 12:42pm

I'll have a glass of that kool-aid

Justin Howe 12:43pm 

We all trash Wallace but 113-141 targets in 5 of the last 6 years

Justin Bonnema 12:43pm

He's so off folk's radars too. 

Justin Howe 12:44pm 

Yup. He's my WR4 plan. I think I'll get him in 14 or 15 here.

On Bilal Powell

Justin Bonnema 3:34pm

Not to mention Powell, a top-10 guy in PPR leagues 🔥

Phil Alexander 3:35pm

Whew

I think he can get there by the end of the year maybe

Justin Bonnema 3:36pm

Come, Phil, join my cult.

The Kool-Aid is delicious 

Phil Alexander 3:42pm

What makes you so sure on Powell? I think it's 50-50 with Forte barring injury 

Justin Bonnema 3:46pm

Just looking at the SFB scoring, Powell had the second highest first down rate among RBs and was fifth or sixth in receiving first downs. They're using him to move the chains. Touchdowns are coming

Daniel Simpkins 3:47pm

Justin's love of Powell is proportionate to how much rage I feel about missing out on him by one pick to a team who needed WR and TE much much worse.

Justin Howe 3:48pm 

Take heart Daniel. I like his outlook too but he IS still a Jet, and no one should beat themselves up over "losing out" on a 2017 Jet.

Justin Bonnema 3:48pm

5.5 ypc, 6.7 per catch. Meaningless stats when it comes to timeshares but efficiency is on his side.

Justin Bonnema 3:53pm

(continues Powell rant) and considering the likes of D Cook, Henry, Ingram, Peterson, Lacy, Ameer, Coleman and Perkins are going ahead of him, he's the end of the shelf and a better buy than all of those guys

Ari Ingel 4:06pm

Justin B... I'm so not on him this year. That team is going to be horrible, literally horrible and there is zero indication that he is their bell cow over Forte. Powell at age 29 is not the future of this backfield, he is probably gone or their second back next year. Dumspter fire teams will kill you week to week. 

Justin Bonnema 4:08pm

Ari he's 28.7

Phil Alexander 4:08pm

lol

Justin Howe 4:09pm 

I'm with you Ari except that Forte looks pretty much done to me. Can't move well, can't produce in short yardage to save his life, and now only the second-best receiving back. Guaranteed salary kept him from being cut, but I could see a near-shutdown at worst and a 50/50 split as his ceiling.

And Powell has most of the risk factored into ADP, which has risen but is still low.

Justin Bonnema 4:09pm

Bad offense is bad but not a death knell to a receiving back like Powell. Good price

Ari Ingel 4:10pm

Yeah, I will concede, as your RB3 in PPR leagues, he's a more than fine player. Just as risky as any of the other RB3's.  

Justin Bonnema 4:11pm

They were horrible last year too. He finished the season as PPR RB17 (rb21 through 16)

More chances at TDs this year but I have so much bias now I can't see

Ari Ingel 4:11pm

Yeah, he had a good run at the end of the season there. Perhaps I come around to him ... not a great offensive line though either. 

Devin Knotts 4:12pm

Josh McCown doesn't throw to running backs and Christian Hackenburg couldn't complete a five yard pass to a running back

Phil Alexander 4:12pm

*Good end of season runs in 2 straight years

Justin Bonnema 4:12pm

(I say more chances at TDs but that's purely speculative and based on the fact that I believe Forte will wear down)

Justin Howe 4:12pm 

LOL Devin

Phil Alexander 4:13pm

I do wonder if Powell was just a good fit for Gailey's system, but he definitely ran with some juice last year

Justin Howe 4:14pm 

Honestly game script his is biggest positive. They'll be trailing every game, all year. They won't be feeding the ghost of Forte in the 3rd/4th Qs of their weekly 27-7 deficits.

Devin Knotts 4:14pm

Hackenberg scares the hell out of me 

Justin Bonnema 4:15pm

McCown, in his five games last year, targeted Duke Johnson 27 times

Justin agree on game scripts. part of the upside

Ari Ingel 4:17pm

Gailey's 4 wide sets fit him perfectly. That QB situation is so bad, I just think nothing good comes out of there. And McCown is either going to get hurt or they will shift to Hackenberg or Petty very soon since they need to know what they have and tank for the USC QB . It's really bad. 

Ari Ingel 4:18pm

I mean look at this team ... Powell does get a good grade at least 

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Once again though ... as your 3rd RB, can't argue with it

Justin Bonnema 4:18pm

Drafting him at his floor

Devin Knotts 4:19pm

McCown>>>>>>>Hackenberg. Hackenberg is if Landry Jones had Brett Favre's gunslinging mentality

Justin Bonnema 4:19pm

I mean, CJA or Powell. Who are you taking

Justin Howe 4:19pm 

For me, the peripheral stuff + the very real possibility Forte is all but shut down at 31 = a better shot than most of the tier at 200 touches. Guys like Perkins, Woodhead, Riddick, etc have less than 0 chances at 200.

Powell almost every day of the week, Justin

Devin Knotts 4:20pm

Powell for sure

Justin Bonnema 4:20pm

Exactly. And CJA is going  at RB24  vs Powell RB32

Powell is the best RB value in July

On Thomas Rawls and Early-Late Handcuff Running Backs – Yes, All of the Williamses

Daniel Simpkins 10:14pm

Thinking I have to take RB/RB here. They are already flying off the board and having not even fostered a second one, I'm in a world of hurt there.

Ryan Hester 10:25pm

Daniel, time to mix floors and ceilings. Floor like James White, ceiling of Rawls. Don't forget Terrance West too. Sometimes, 4 weeks of RB2 is all you get. If they're 1-4 and then you figure things out later, so be it.

Justin Howe 10:37pm 

I'm thinking White and Hunt.

Daniel Simpkins 10:38pm

I really believe in Booker if CJA can't stay healthy. Cecil has highlighted how that scheme change is going to help. Think I can get away with letting him go till 13.12?

Devin Knotts 10:45pm

Latavius Murray should be the guy there IMO

Justin Bonnema 10:46pm

Murray gets a slight edge over a prayer in Jamaal Charles

The rest of the list are JAG

Daniel Simpkins 10:47pm

How long do you think he holds off Cook, Devin and Justin? That's what I'm concerned about. Not sure Minnesota would have given that kind of contract to Murray had they known Cook would be available.

Justin Howe 10:48pm

Honestly I could see Murray finishing last in carries.

Devin Knotts 10:48pm

With rookie running backs it's hard to know Daniel. I don't love Cook to be honest this year. I think he will take some time to develop into an NFL guy

Devin Knotts 10:48pm

Florida State running backs have shown a difficult time adapting to the NFL year one

Justin Howe 10:49pm 

Latavius is s really just another guy. Inefficient behind an elite line, fewer TD looks now

Devin Knotts 10:49pm

I do like Rob Kelley too, I don't think he loses his spot to Perine as everyone else thinks

sigmund bloom 10:49pm

Agree Devin and more beat writers are echoing that

Justin Howe 10:49pm 

Kelley could hold him off but he just redefines JAG

Devin Knotts 10:50pm

but if he gets the carries at that value Justin he's more than JAG

Justin Howe 10:50pm 

If he dominates the backfield then sure

Devin Knotts 10:50pm

he has a clearer path to getting carries than the rest of them

Justin Howe 10:51pm 

But if he sits around 175 rushes, he's barely a RB3 as he has no pass-game boost whatsoever

Someone has to definitively win that job to have value before the late pickings

Daniel Simpkins 4:46pm

My pick is around. RBs just flying off the board. Maybe take Tyrell Williams and a runner here because of my team construction?

I hope I have a shot at Jamaal Williams next time around. I just have a feeling about that situation.

Justin Bonnema 4:54pm

Daniel sell me on that. Montgomery is getting expensive 

Devin Knotts 4:55pm

Love Jamaal Williams

Daniel Simpkins 4:56pm

Yeah, I just feel like Montgomery did well with the position conversion last year, but Williams is already a more natural runner than Montgomery.

Williams went the next pick

Knew I should've doubled up

Justin Howe 5:05pm 

Daniel Think you're much better off with Aaron Jones and the discount than Jamaal

Superior prospect in every way, just drafted 2 rounds later by the Pack. Comes cheaper in fantasy too.

Daniel Simpkins 5:10pm

Not sure I agree with the superior prospect part, but I do agree he's much much cheaper.

Justin Howe 5:18pm

FWIW Jones posted the better speed score, far better agility score, much stronger rushing share, and much stronger YPC. Caught more passes too. I honestly had Williams as an undrafted prospect and Jones in the 4th or so.

Ari Ingel 5:44pm

Someone just took Rawls in the 9th in my league ... this thing is crazy

Daniel Simpkins 5:59pm

Justin, Williams plays much faster on tape than he tests. Love the footwork in particular. I think he's also a better blocker than Jones which will get him on the field quicker. Packers told you who they thought was superior by taking him ahead of Jones.

Ari Ingel 6:17pm

Debating Joe Williams, Ken Dixon, Kareem Hunt and Jonathan Williams .... 

Phil Alexander 6:18pm

That's tough. All have their merits. Between Hunt and Williams for me

Ari Ingel 6:19pm

Which Williams?

Phil Alexander 6:19pm

Whoops, Jonathan

Ari Ingel 6:19pm

They really like Joe ... Jonathan more of a league winner if Shady goes down. 

Phil Alexander 6:20pm

This is your RB3?

Ari Ingel 6:20pm

RB5

Phil Alexander 6:22pm

I've been starting to buy Hyde more as his stock has been falling. Probably why I'm not into Williams much

Ari Ingel 6:23pm

Hyde is too good to go away unless they trade him. I agree, I am not buying he's being replaced. 

Kareem Hunt an interesting guy though ... but Spencer Ware would have to lie down and die

Phil Alexander 6:24pm

I see something close to an even split there. Maybe 55-45 Ware if both are healthy

Devin Knotts 6:37pm

Not a fan of Joe Williams. I like Jamaal who we referenced earlier