Welcome to the Week 13 Review / Week 14 Preview. If you're new here, check out Week 1's introduction.
#FFBookie Prop Bets
A couple weeks ago, we introduced the prop bets to the column. The concept has been fun, and this week we had our first prop of "will Player X score a touchdown" variety.
Our first prop involved a popular New Orleans receiver in the wake of Brandin Cooks' season-ending injury a couple weeks ago. Some folks preferred Marques Colston as the New Orleans receiver who would best fill in for Cooks's lost production. While that was true in terms of fantasy points in Week 12, only Colston's touchdown made it so.
Perhaps we should have seen this coming with Stills, as he hasn't had fewer than three receptions in any game since the team's Week 6 bye. Steady production before an injury to a teammate led to boosted production since. Sometimes this silly game can make sense.
You’re the #FFBookie Prop 1: Kenny Stills receiving yards. Set the O/U.
— Ryan Hester (@RyanHester13) November 29, 2014
Let's see what first two responders said:
@RyanHester13 64.5
— travis (@AveryDaddy10) November 30, 2014
Well, that was just barely within 100 yards of Stills' final tally of 162. The next wasn't much closer, though.
— Samuel L. Nielsen (@DavezorNielsen) November 29, 2014
Our second prop involved Andre Ellington and was ruined by his injury. One response, however, was quite emphatic.
@RyanHester13 under 10
— Samuel L. Nielsen (@DavezorNielsen) November 29, 2014
Not only did this responder take the UNDER, but he provided his own line.
Ellington's injury highlights something that his owners probably already know. It's highly unlikely that he'll be a championship-winner over the next three weeks. He had a nice little run in the middle of the season, but he's been completely volume-dependent and incredibly inefficient. Now, he's injured, and his team just scraped the bottom of the barrel for Michael Bush. Ellington's playoff schedule sees him facing the current 22nd, 23rd, and 21st most difficult running back matchups. Unless he's your flex, you're in trouble with him.
Our third prop focused on Sunday Night Football. The volume for passing games opposing Denver generally produces great results in the "counting stats" department, which is obviously the whole point of fantasy football.
Also, don’t forget the YOU’RE the #FFBookie Prop for tonight. Dwayne Bowe PPR points. Set the O/U.
— Ryan Hester (@RyanHester13) December 1, 2014
Many stats fascinate me, but the fact that Kansas City entered Week 13 with zero touchdown passes to wide receivers inspired this one. Much like their "zero rush TDs allowed" stat was demolished last week, I thought this one would come crashing down to earth as well.
The responses I received didn't exactly share my confidence.
@RyanHester13 10.5
— Samuel L. Nielsen (@DavezorNielsen) November 29, 2014
This one was more specific but basically got to the same point total.
@RyanHester13 5 catches, 60 yards.
— Derek Willett (@DereksDaycare) December 1, 2014
It turns out that these responders were actually close to Bowe's final yardage count. His two reception, 18-yard "performance" clearly didn't go as I thought it would.
Because the #FFBookie had a little time to kill before Sunday Night Football started, we added another prop to the mix. This one was pretty simple.
Opening up another prop - one for the binky of #FantasyTwitter, Mr. Travis Kelce. Will he score a TD tonight? Set the “yes” line.
— Ryan Hester (@RyanHester13) December 1, 2014
The first two responses epitomized the huge gap in the potential and actual production of Kelce this season.
@RyanHester13 -105
— travis (@AveryDaddy10) December 1, 2014
@RyanHester13 +1200
— Richie Oliver (@secondhandsmug) December 1, 2014
Kelce's talent is undeniable, but as I said in last week's column, his skills don't align with the strengths of his quarterback. Our own Matt Waldman pointed out "On the Couch" with Sigmund Bloom a few weeks back that Kelce's long touchdown in the preseason that set the #FantasyTwitter world ablaze was thrown by Aaron Murray. Alex Smith simply doesn't have the arm strength or boldness to "rip the seams." Despite thinking this, I still thought there was a chance Kansas City had perhaps been "saving" Kelce for a big divisional game.
I think Kelce has a big night. Like Week 4 vs NE. Feel like they’ve been saving those bunch packages they used that night.
— Ryan Hester (@RyanHester13) December 1, 2014
It's a borderline coaching felony that Andy Reid doesn't use his best players. Kelce is a beast running after the catch. Why have we only seen it in one game? Below is what I wrote about Kelce after the Week 4 Monday Night Football thrashing of New England. Just read the bold parts to save some time.
...his usage is becoming a key part of Kansas City's offense. They often used three-man bunch sets with Kelce as one of the players in the back. It was very Chip Kelly-esque in that the play would be a called run but had a built-in bubble screen if the box was stacked. This role is typically reserved for a wide receiver in Kelly's offense, but Kansas City employed Kelce.
Among his eight chatches, a couple were these quick bubble screens. When he got the ball, Kelce got his momentum going forward and got up to speed quickly while delivering devastating stiff-arms and racking up yards after catch. The big takeaway from these formations is that when teams find simple ways to get certain players the ball, it's because trust the playmaking abilities of those certain players. These are special talents, and Kelce fits the bill.
Kelce's late touchdown was from a run-heavy goal line set where he was lined up in-line (as opposed to in the slot or out wide). He also had a catch where he started out wide, motioned towards the middle, and ran a cross-field drag leaving linebackers in the dust. He made plays from the perimeter, the slot, and in-line.
Does any of this resemble how we saw Kelce used on Sunday night?
primetime recap
This Week's Three Studs of Primetime:
- Jamaal Charles
- Demaryius Thomas
- C.J. Anderson
This Week's Three Duds of Primetime:
- Miami Dolphins Defense/Special Teams
- Travis Kelce
- Ryan Tannehill
This was prehaps the least "studly" primetime week of the year, as Charles put up one of the worst yardage totals you'll ever see him put up, scored just one touchdown, and still made the third star. We can thank the New York Jets for this one.
Everyone for Miami disappointed, but their D/ST is the first to make this list. After what Buffalo did to New York last week, the ceiling was high for Miami. They failed to deliver, though.
last week at the "book"
Underdog of the Week
ere, we had an owner in a highly unenviable position: nursing a small lead with one player left whose matchup is poor and playing against Jamaal Charles.
@ginny_beth Ouch. Opponent has better player and better matchup. +300. #FFBookie
— Ryan Hester (@RyanHester13) December 1, 2014
Through three quarters, Charles had 35 rushing yards and zero receptions. However, on Kansas City's first fourth quarter drive, he caught two passes for 15 yards and a touchdown.
Charles ended the night with a pretty lackluster (for him) performance. Combined with Miller's touchdown on Monday night, @ginny_beth overcame the odds and won the matchup.
Close Call of the Week
This one was so close, it was hard to call. I attempted to go "granular" with it and project points for each player. While those weren't exactly correct, this reader took the lead in his matchup with under 10 minutes left in the game. Congrats, @secondhandsmug.
@secondhandsmug Razor thin. I’d guess Manny ~11, Anderson ~12, Kelce ~9. That’s a close one. PICK ‘EM.
— Ryan Hester (@RyanHester13) December 1, 2014
looking ahead
After a successful slate of picks in Week 12 looking ahead to Week 13, we 're starting to get on a roll. Last week's "Nelson" section player was C.J. Anderson. With over 180 total yards and a touchdown, Anderson came through in a big way. I also singled out Miami's passing game as good Daily Fantasy targets. While receivers Jarvis Landry and Mike Wallace were solid, they were far from home runs. Kelce was also mentioned, but we've alredy gone over his disappointing evening.
Our "Romo" section player last week was Lamar Miller due to New York's tough run defense. Miller ran for just 56 yards on 13 carries but did find the end zone, making this prediction a less-than-stellar one.
The Jordy Nelson Memorial "You Don't Want to Play Against This Guy" Section
This week's primetime slate is full of teams with playoff aspirations, despite 5-7 Atlanta being a Monday Night Football participant. It's also full of fantasy superstars. Atlanta clearly has the worst defense of the four, though, and Green Bay is firing on all cylinders, particularly at home. Don't bet against the home touchdown streak this section's namesake has going. Nelson has scored in every contest at Lambeau, and all have come from 25 yards or more.
Despite an island sounding like a nice place, Nelson's trip off of "Revis Island" should be quite relaxing and should result in more than two catches for 53 yards. The only slight concern is if Green Bay turns this game into one of their many blowouts where the passing game calls off the dogs in the second half, which leads us to...
This week is a two-fer here at the #FFBookie. Expect Eddie Lacy to have 100+ total yards and a touchdown as well. Green Bay will wear out Atlanta and exploit a weak defense who only looked good in Week 13 because Drew Stanton is unfortunately ruining Arizona's chances at a deep postseason run.
The Tony Romo Memorial "Bright Lights, Dim Fantasy Production" Section
This week's "Romo" section player is likely the next visitor to "Revis Island." In his last two games, Keenan Allen has 17 receptions, 225 yards, and three touchdowns. It's pretty likely that New England's success on defense will be to shut him down and make the other San Diego players beat them. Allen will get back on track in Week 15 against Denver, but hopefully a lackluster Week 14 doesn't eliminate his owners from their playoffs. It's worth noting that Rob Gronkowski was almost the selection here due to San Diego's standing as the third-hardest matchup for opposing tight ends. But touchdown regression is coming for Gronkowski, who hasn't scored in his last two games.
Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail hester@footballguys.com
