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Welcome to the Week 12 Review / Week 13 Preview. If you're new here, check out Week 1's introduction.
#FFBookie Prop Bets
A couple weeks ago, we introduced the prop bets to the column, and the "betting" debuted last week. This week, we did three more, with two being of the "YOU Be the #FFBookie" variety. It's not as easy as it looks, is it?
One of the biggest stories in the NFL and in fantasy football was the return of Josh Gordon, so we had to do a prop for him.
Prop 1 - YOU’RE the #FFBookie: Josh Gordon PPR points - set the Over/Under.
— Ryan Hester (@RyanHester13) November 21, 2014
We had a range of guesses on Gordon, but they averaged 14.5. This low number was mostly received before the news of him being on a "pitch count" came out. An 8-120 line later, and Gordon is a fantasy WR1 once again.
Our next prop was a two-parter featuring two up-and-down quarterbacks in an only-good-for-fantasy matchup.
Prop 2 (two parts!) - YOU’RE the #FFBookie: Josh McCown TD Passes - set the O/U Jay Cutler TD Passes - set the O/U
— Ryan Hester (@RyanHester13) November 21, 2014
The majority of the lines were set exactly here, despite some decent hype around the potential shootout nature of this game.
@RyanHester13 #FFBookie Josh McCown TD Passes - 1.5, Jay Cutler TD Passes - 2.5
— Jason Brookins (@MrJasonBrookins) November 21, 2014
It turns out that even though the #FFBookie though these numbers were low, they were still too optimistic.
primetime recap
This Week's Three Studs of Primetime:
- Dez Bryant
- Justin Forsett
- Odell Beckham, Jr.
This Week's Three Duds of Primetime:
- The New York Jets
- Rueben Randle
- Sammy Watkins
Beckham is basically the "stud" of everything after that catch on Sunday. There could have been five places for each category above due to a third game taking place on Monday, but that was such a miserable experience, it's best left unacknowledged.
The Jets only get the third spot because, honestly, who was relying on any part of that team? Once again, this section is expectations-based.
last week at the "book"
I didn't come across any truly horrific beats this week, but there was one rare instance where one of the elite fantasy assets in the game was an underdog to a kicker.
You know how the #FFBookie feels about kickers. I'm thinking frequent-reader @jtmckenzi feels the same.
@jtmckenzi You’re +120. But don’t worry, I’m playing against Graham in my top league, so he’ll go off. #FFBookie
— Ryan Hester (@RyanHester13) November 24, 2014
That's all for the "Last Week" section. There wasn't as much action as typical weeks, no horrible beats, and the #FFBookie is fighting quite the cold, meaning the energy level is dwindling.
Instead of more bookie situations, here's my favorite tweet of the week, which features my favorite Vine of the week, because it was my favorite moment of the week. Good for you, T.Y. Hilton.
New dad TY Hilton rocking that baby to sleep https://t.co/S5GMZFnPMK
— Will Brinson (@WillBrinson) November 23, 2014
looking ahead
While the selections here admittedly aren't always spot-on, last week was mostly successful. Here's what we said for the "Jordy Nelson" section:
...Justin Forsett should have a really nice game down on the bayou. If you think New Orleans will control the game and be playing from ahead, Forsett makes a nice PPR play as well. He's not game script-dependent.
Other candidates include DeMarco Murray, Odell Beckham, Jr., and one of the Smiths in Baltimore (one will score a long-ish touchdown but good luck predicting which it will be).
Nailed it on just about every selection there. Thanks for the leeway on the Smiths, but Steve had a short-ish touchdown, so we're taking credit.
As for the "Tony Romo" section, I selected Mr. Romo himself. He really doesn't want this section to be named after him anymore. You may recall the Week 5 column when I apologized to him for selecting him in this space when predicting Week 4. After four more touchdown passes in primetime, this section may have to be renamed. I'm open to suggestions. At least Rueben Randle was also named here as a potential bust candidate.
The Jordy Nelson Memorial "You Don't Want to Play Against This Guy" Section
While anyone on the Denver offense can swing a fantasy matchup, C.J. Anderson is the one who should perform best relative to expectations. Kansas City is allowing 5.0 yards per carry, worst in the NFL. Their amazing run of not allowing a rushing touchdown despite this per-carry lack of efficiency came to an emphatic end last week as my fellow University of Central Florida alum Latavius Murray got two early.
Outside of every Denver passing game staple and Jamaal Charles, Ryan Tannehill and Jarvis Landry are nice Daily Fantasy options as the New York Jets secondary has been brutal all year and was just torched by Buffalo's number two receiver, Robert Woods.
Also, despite the entire fantasy community chomping at the bit for it to happen, Travis Kelce's massive upside hasn't yet been realized. His quarterback's strengths don't align with his skills. However, his Week 13 opponent's weakness certainly do. Kelce has "go-off" potential this Sunday.
The Tony Romo Memorial "Bright Lights, Dim Fantasy Production" Section
This week's primetime slate seems like one that we shouldn't overthink. Denver's good fantasy assets should be good, Jamaal Charles should be good, Miami's passing game should be okay, and we shouldn't expect anything from the Jets. That leaves the Miami running game. Temper expectations for Lamar Miller, as any production would likely be a product of game script and a run-heavy attack while leading late.
Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail hester@footballguys.com
