Welcome to the Week 10 Review / Week 11 Preview. If you're new here, check out Week 1's introduction.
Last week, we had to take the week off due to some unforeseen circumstances. That means the last time the #FFBookie was published, we had changed the name of one of our sections below due to Jordy Nelson's poor showing on Sunday Night Football at New Orleans. It's fitting that we took a bye week with Nelson and the Packers, as both of us are returning in a rejuvenated fashion. In fact, Nelson has re-claimed his rightful place as the headline name in the "You Don't Want to Play Against This Guy" Section. Shame on me for stripping it from him in the first place.
#FFBookie Prop Bets - Coming Soon!
Any good sportsbook has player prop bets. And any good twitter-er interacts with his followers for feedback and input. So, I'm introducing a fun new concept to the column for future editions. I'll create a fake player prop and seek over/under responses from my followers. In certain instances, I'll even ask you, dear followers, to set the over/under early in the week and release the prop later in the week for the "bets" to be made.
primetime recap
This Week's Three Studs of Primetime:
- Mark Sanchez
- Jordy Nelson
- Aaron Rodgers
This Week's Three Duds of Primetime:
- Matt Forte
- Jeremy Maclin
- Jay Cutler
In the Week 9 column, we poked fun at Mike Carey and his rather questionable job as the CBS Officiating Expert. Carey has been wrong almost every time he has been asked to speak this season, but in the Pittsburgh-New York Jets game Sunday, it appeared as if he broke his unfortunate streak of poor calls.
Legitimately ATROCIOUS call on the non-reversal of Vick fumble. Mike Carey agrees w/me. The ref, however, felt no obligation to explain.
— Dave Dameshek (@Dameshek) November 9, 2014
But alas, despite many tweets agreeing with him that said the non-fumble call should have been reversed, the game's referee said the call would stand. In other words, we're back to this:
Can we get a petition to replace Mike Carey on CBS broadcasts with Harry Caray? Sure there's plenty of audio of him to create a soundboard.
— Tom Gower (@ThomasGower) November 9, 2014
Speaking of Pittsburgh, here's a tweet that highlights their lack of success when playing the teams against whom they should have the most success.
As usual, the #Steelers play down to their competition under Tomlin…never fails
— Matt Williamson (@WilliamsonNFL) November 9, 2014
As an admitted Pittsburgh homer, I must say that I'm one of a few from the banks of the three rivers who had seen this "movie" even before it had another matinee showing on Sunday.
C’mon. We know it but let us enjoy it. RT @FO_ScottKacsmar: It would be so Steeler-like to follow up this stretch with a loss to the Jets.
— Ryan Hester (@RyanHester13) November 3, 2014
Here are a few fantasy-relevant tidbits I came across on Sunday and Monday.
First, one that is quite depressing for the many (including yours truly) who thought Michael Floyd would break out this season.
Jared Cook has 30% more receiving yards on the season than Michael Floyd.
— Chad Parsons (@ChadParsonsNFL) November 9, 2014
Next, a fact about Julius Thomas that defies logic for many of the "targets portend fantasy success, and touchdowns aren't predictable" crowd.
The last time Julius Thomas had more than 8 targets in a game was October 6th. Of 2013.
— Adam Harstad (@AdamHarstad) November 9, 2014
Lastly, it's hard to find anything promising from a player who put up 19 receiving yards on just two catches, but for Travis Kelce, the amount of snaps he has played in each game is a constant topic of conversation.
Travis Kelce played 66% of the snaps, which is on the high side from him, but Bills said they viewed him as another Gronk. 2-19 (2)
— John Paulsen (@4for4_John) November 10, 2014
last week at the "book"
Bad Beat of the Year Nominee, Part VI
Prior to this week, this category could have been renamed the "Heath Cummings Award" after my fellow FBG staffer due the fact that his fantasy teams made up three of the five nominees. However, @CdaddyQuant has a legitimate claim to the award. His situation was looking so good heading into Monday Night Football that he didn't even seek odds. But the first half brought some understandable consternation.
@CdaddyQuant Before game, would've been -10000. Now, it's -225. #FFBookie
— Ryan Hester (@RyanHester13) November 11, 2014
Despite the huge lead being just a modest one at the half, he was still a pretty sizable favorite. You know from the heading, though, where this one ended up.
@RyanHester13 lost on last sack
— Marc A. Spungin (@CdaddyQuant) November 11, 2014
Here's a situation where having the better fantasy player isn't necessarily a good thing.
@DaBachmann Tough one. I rarely favor a 1-vs-2, but you’re about as close as it gets. Pick ‘em! #FFBookie
— Ryan Hester (@RyanHester13) November 10, 2014
The odds of him losing weren't too high, but the way it so quickly went up in flames was obviously surprising. Sorry for giving you hope, @DaBachmann.
Next, we have the quickest win of the week. While the last line was set rather poorly, the Bookie did like Jordan Matthews tonight. There's something to the narrative of the backup quarterback and the third and/or fourth wide receiver having a vibe from their time working together in practice.
@alifakharany Like your chances. -250. #FFBookie
— Ryan Hester (@RyanHester13) November 10, 2014
Each week, there are one or two "bets" that demand a relatively short line because they could go really far in either direction. This week's involved the Philadelphia Defense/Special Teams. Heading into the night, the Bookie knew this unit had a chance to make an impact. As it turns out, their impact was huge in the first half alone.
@illinijashmore Yikes. Gonna be close. Philly DST the x-factor. I think the have a 9+ point night. So you’re +130. #FFBookie
— Ryan Hester (@RyanHester13) November 10, 2014
looking ahead
We took last week, but I would've predicted that Aaron Rodgers would thrown five touchdowns and that two would have been to Nelson. I would've also said that Jay Cutler would be a disappointment and would drag Matt Forte down with him. Fine, don't believe me. Let's move on to the future.
The Jordy Nelson Colin Kaepernick Jordy Nelson (again) Memorial "You Don't Want to Play Against This Guy" Section
THe #FFBookie says that the odds of this player coming from the New England-Indianapolis game and not the Pittsburgh-Tennessee game is about -1000. Seriously, how excited are you for New England at Indianapolis? Rob Gronkowski should be the studliest of the studs, though. Throw out their games against Jacksonville and Houston (because those teams don't utilize their tight ends and don't have great options at the position), and Indianapolis has been absolutely shredded by players at that position so far. Here are some performances in terms of PPR points by tight ends against Indianapolis.
- Julius Thomas: 38.4
- Zach Ertz: 12.6
- Delanie Walker: 19.4
- Owen Daniels: 12.0
- Jermaine Gresham: 14.8
- Heath Miller: 24.2
- Larry Donnell: 12.5
Considering these are mainly "part-time" offensive options for their respective NFL teams (outside of Thomas), think about the Gronk-smashing that could occur next Sunday night.
The Tony Romo Memorial "Bright Lights, Dim Fantasy Production" Section
We'll rule out anyone from Tennessee here, because the expectations of those players are so low that any disappointment won't really be a let-down. Perhaps the best bet for this section is someone from Sunday who plays well but doesn't "go off" to the degree his owners hoped. However, it's worth noting the home/road splits for a couple of prominent Pittsburgh players in terms of average fantasy points in home games / average in road games:
- Ben Roethlisberger: 28.65 / 13.26 (~15 fantasy points)
- LeVeon Bell (PPR): 22.94 / 15.92 (~7)
- Antonio Brown (PPR): 27.88 / 18.92 (~9)
With the way Pittsburgh plays down to its competition, this game could be closer than the average 6-4 vs 2-7 contest. However, Pittsburgh may have received their wake up call in Week 10, leading to a positive game script for Bell and limited fantasy production from the passing game. Brown will get his unfathomably standard-sounding 20 PPR points, but Roethlisberger will fall short of fantasy QB1 production.
Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail hester@footballguys.com
