Welcome to the Week 8 Review / Week 9 Preview. If you're new here, check out Week 1's introduction.
primetime recap
This Week's Three Studs of Primetime:
- Brandin Cooks
- Mark Ingram
- Drew Brees
This Week's Three Duds of Primetime:
- Dez Bryant
- Pierre Garcon
- Jordy Nelson
Let's move on to my favorite tweets and discussion points of the week. To start, we'll go back to Thursday night, where Mike Carey continued to endear himself to people on twitter who like to make jokes. As my followers may know, I began wondering why Carey was chosen for his current role a couple weeks ago during the Indianapolis-Houston Thursday night game. Then, it continued during Pittsburgh's blowout loss at Cleveland in Week 6.
You might be asking why I'd make such a big deal about Carey. Everyone makes mistakes, right? Well, it turns out Mr. Carey has made so many mistakes and been so far from being correct, that he can take over a whole timeline...twice.
I’m not the only one tweeting how bad Mike Carey is, Part I pic.twitter.com/exLjg6DANW
— Ryan Hester (@RyanHester13) October 24, 2014
I’m not the only one tweeting how bad Mike Carey is, Part III pic.twitter.com/ItLBuxy2Pe
— Ryan Hester (@RyanHester13) October 24, 2014
There was actually a "Part II" tweet there as well, but I forgot to attach the screengrab. Either way, Mike Carey isn't having the best season. The best tweet of them all, though, was this one. My personal friend and fellow UCF alum "Mayor Burnsy" has always been a funny guy, but the high humor bar he has set for himself hasn't stopped him from continuing to generate chuckles.
But my guy Burnsy has the best Mike Carey of them all. RT @MayorBurnsy: Mike Carey: “And that’s how you draw a cat.” pic.twitter.com/sICMqocWtx
— Ryan Hester (@RyanHester13) October 24, 2014
The other huge topic of Week 8 was Ben Roethlisberger putting on what I thought was the best quarterback performance I've ever seen. I really dislike how being caught in the moment can create hyperbole, but there was some "science" to back me up.
I won't make people wait for Quick Reads. Ben Roethlisberger had the highest regular-season DYAR by a QB ever (i.e. since at least 1989).
— Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) October 27, 2014
Fantasy statistics also validated Roethlisberger's performance as the best in recent history.
Roethlisberger just topped Michael Vick’s 2010 game against Washington for the highest-scoring game in history in one of my scoring systems.
— Adam Harstad (@AdamHarstad) October 26, 2014
Pittsburgh's offense has certainly had its low moments this season (just nine offensive points at Jacksonville and 10 at Cleveland in consecutive weeks), but they appear to be hitting their stride. This Rich Eisen tweet at halftime on Sunday put that in perspective.
Steelers have put up 65 points since 3 minutes to go in the half six days ago.
— Rich Eisen (@richeisen) October 26, 2014
To update, that's 81 points in their last six quarters (plus three minutes).
last week at the "book"
Regular readers may remember that back in Week 7's article, we had our first parlay come in. That was from #FFBookie regular @jtmckenzi. It turns out that "JT" has had a bundle of success against the book this season.
@RyanHester13 (1/2) Not sure if you noticed, but I'm on a crazy run with #FFBookie this season
— Jake McKenzie (@jtmckenzi) October 28, 2014
@RyanHester13 (2/2) I'm 6-0-1 covering +200, -120, +183 parlay, +150, +140, -400, and pushed a +125
— Jake McKenzie (@jtmckenzi) October 28, 2014
This guy is putting together a wonderful season full of close calls that have gone his way. I hope the streak continues for him -- even if it bleeds the #FFBookie dry of completely pretend funds.
You may recall our friend and fellow staffer Heath Cummings. He's responsible for three of our five Bad Beat of the Year Nominees so far this season. Bless his heart, Heath keeps on playing. Fortunately for Heath, this loss wasn't a bad beat. Unfortunately, though, he was beaten badly.
@heathcummingssr Not bad. +140. #FFBookie
— Ryan Hester (@RyanHester13) October 27, 2014
Sometimes, I can't respond to every last #FFBookie request. But as I write the column late each Monday evening, I will do a "Ctrl-F" search of my at-mentions for the names of certain players and try to find some items of note. This one definitely qualifies. Based on my not-really-scientific projections system, I would've had this scenario around -500.
@RyanHester13 #FFBookie went Palmer/Marshall over Ben/Sanders. Will still finish 1st or tough loss 2nd. +22.84 + Jordy vs Cobb/SGraham. PPR.
— Ariakis (@Ariakis73) October 26, 2014
For a little look behind the curtain, here's how I would have "broken down" this scenario. I'd project Nelson for about 17 points, giving this individual a 40-point lead. Then I assign a percentage chance to the opposing players getting this 40 points. In this case, the percentage would have been low (under 15%), giving us the -500 figure.
As it turns out, not only did Nelson fall incredibly short of the somewhat modest 17-point projection I assigned him, but the Cobb/Graham combo scored 37.6. This is the rare #FFBookie that went from blowout to blowout. Adding to the "bad beat" nature of this tweet is the fact that this fantasy owner left a pair of players on his bench that scored 89.6 PPR points in favor of a duo that scored 30.
looking ahead
Last week, I really thought the stars were aligning as the namesakes for both of these sections were both playing in primetime. However, Jordy Nelson's three reception, 25 yard performance was one of the biggest duds in a week full of unbelievable fantasy performances. Two players scored as many touchdowns as Nelson had catches. Roethlisberger threw for twice as many touchdowns as Nelson had receptions. This game we call NFL football continues to be vexing.
I selected Tony Romo in the section named after him where I try to identify disappointing players. Romo only had 183 yards and one touchdown, but his night was shortened due to injury. He was on his way to being relatively disappointing, but it doesn't feel right to give myself a positive grade here with the toughness he showed in re-entering the game.
The Jordy Nelson Colin Kaepernick Memorial "You Don't Want to Play Against This Guy" Section
Nelson has been dethroned. You can't have a 3-25-0 game against one of the league's worst secondaries in a game with a Vegas over/under of 56 and still have this section named after you. Instead, we're going with Kaepernick, who has quite the nice Monday Night Football resume. As for this week, sometimes, taking the obvious choice isn't "sexy" and being a contrarian feels like the smart move. But it's hard to pick anyone except Andrew Luck here. Luck should continue his dominant season on Monday Night Football.
The Tony Romo Memorial "Bright Lights, Dim Fantasy Production" Section
Despite the aforementioned Pittsburgh offensive explosion, too many of these Baltimore-Pittsburgh games have been physical, low-scoring battles. While the defenses on these teams (particularly Pittsburgh's) aren't good enough to make this a 13-10 type of game, something in the 23-20 range with limited fantasy production makes sense. Roethlisberger could be a guy who causes many a fantasy novice to chase points this week, and they aren't likely to be thrilled with that decision.
Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail hester@footballguys.com
