Left Shoulder/Right Shoulder
If Footballguys could have a virtual reality draft advisor program (coming in 2042), Sigmund Bloom would be the angel on your right shoulder. He'll be your beatific little-tie-dyed angel uttering catchy sound bytes of praise for players that dwell in his land of bright and shiny toys. Whether or not he coins them, fantasy owners and writers will continue crediting him until it becomes fantasy football cliche.
Please allow me to introduce myself. I'm lounging on Bloom's Couch on your left shoulder. Yeah, I'm wearing a black cape. Bloom will try to convince you that it's actually a wet blanket, but that's his beams of sunshine and rainbows tickling your hind parts. It's ridiculous garbage that the gullible masses clamor for like ravenous pigs. Do you actually enjoy watching football when his rays of sunlight are blocking your view of the screen?
Let me hang my cape over that annoying Bloo--beam. After all, the dark is so much better to see the details of the game. Isn't that better? I like the dark. I live in those details.
(I hope you guessed my name.)
Calling me evil is so simplistic. I prefer to describe my role as a necessary test; an advocate for doubt; me at my most cynical. This week, I'm testing your faith in the top 100 players according to early August ADP in PPR leagues.
If you still like these players after I do my work, then there's no reason that you shouldn't draft them. If not, their name should never cross your lips.
The Devil's Advocate 100, Part I: 100-51
100. Eric Decker: The Jets couldn't trade Decker so they let him go. The Ravens had first dibs at Decker and chose Jeremy Maclin instead and it wasn't like Maclin's knee injury wasn't a lingering concern for the Chiefs. Even so, the Ravens preferred a receiver coming off a knee injury to Decker, who had surgery on both his hip and shoulder. Do you really want a 30-year-old wide receiver coming off surgeries to body parts that are likely to take a pounding over the middle as a slot and outside option whose best routes are over the middle?
99. Samaje Perine: Fat Rob Kelly still has a hold of the starting job after the first week of training camp. F-A-T R-O-B. Perine fumbled the ball away on a practice rep and lost to a defender in one-on-one pass protection drills. There's a small margin of error between NFL starters and reserves and it's these tiny mistakes that could be the difference. After all, we've seen Jay Gruden have a hair trigger in the past with players who make mistakes.
98. Dak Prescott: One good year. Correction, one fantastic year. Blake Bortles had a good year once. So did Scott Mitchell. Colin Kaepernick was once the toast of the league as the hot young superstar QB. How 'bout that Nick Foles in Philadelphia? Matt Cassel just had to be a stud after developing under the watchful eye of Bill Belichick's regime, right? I sure hope that offensive line in Dallas remains intact. Oops, where's Ronald Leary? Oh no, didn't Doug Free retire? Don't tell me that Tyron Smith has missed consecutive practices with back tightness. Didn't Marshawn Lynch kill the seasons of fantasy owners with that problem? But Prescott will be alright. After all, he can create like Russell Wilson, who handled a banged up and inexperienced offensive line just fine last year...
97. Hunter Henry: Who cares that Henry's red zone prowess came from excellent scheming to counteract opponents focusing too much on Antonio Gates? I mean, Gates is old, right? He can't run like he used to. Henry's younger, quicker, and everyone says the sky is the limit for him. Tony Gonzalez was two steps from needing a walker in 2013 and he scored 8 touchdowns. Gates scored 7 last year. Gates may lack the athletic ability of his prime, but he has over a decade of rapport with Rivers and a staff that knows that opposing defenses will begin focusing on Henry. Dominant athletes beat defenses focused on stopping them. Are you sure Henry is a dominant athlete or just a good athlete with strong receiving skills? If it's the latter, beware of rapport taking advantage of youth.
Eagles came off the field today and Carson Wentz threw his wrist band to fans. A grown man caught it, first thing he did was smell it. 😲— TURRON DAVENPORT (@TDavenport_NFL) August 6, 2017
96. LeGarrette Blount: The Eagles offensive line is arguably better than the Patriots unit that helped Blount earn 18 touchdowns last year. Carson Wentz may have old men sniffing his used wrist bands and crying like the Elvis fans they once were in their youth, but Wentz is no Tom Brady. And the place where that will be most telling is the red zone where the field and time are compressed. Decisions inside the 20 require greater precision and split-second recognition processed into action. Wentz is still getting his footwork aligned with his release so he's not spraying the ball around the field like he did last year. He hasn't spent a decade in this offense with the same coaching staff like Brady. But cut Blount's 18 touchdown totals in half (and that's still an optimistic figure for his offense) and he would have been the No. 22 fantasy runner in PPR last year. The Eagles had 4 backs that scored 13 touchdowns total in the red zone last year. And remember, Wentz has wheels...
95. Jeremy Maclin: Joe Flacco has a disc issue that will cost him training camp and possibly the beginning of the season, which means Maclin will have gained almost no on-field rapport with Flacco. However, Danny Woodhead did. Flacco threw lots of passes to Woodhead this spring and early summer before Maclin arrived and Flacco's back flared up. In case you forget, Woodhead also mans the slot in addition to the backfield. You know who else has had more time to work with Woodhead? Flacco's backups.
94. Martellus Bennett: Bennett scored 7 touchdowns last year because Rob Gronkowski couldn't stay healthy. It was a career-high for Bennett, who has never scored more than 6. When he caught 90 balls in Chicago in 2014, Brandon Marshall missed 3 games that year and was fantasy football's 34th-ranked receiver. Unless two of Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams, Randall Cobb, and perhaps Ty Montgomery get hurt, are you really expecting Bennett to earn career highs as a fantasy performer?
93. Randall Cobb: Davante Adams was a two-route wonder at Fresno State who displayed greater versatility last year. Do you think that's going away? His 12 touchdowns may, but his route running won't. While Aaron Rodgers has the talent to support 3-4 fantasy starters in the passing game, he doesn't have the offensive line to help him. It will take injuries to at least two receivers for Cobb to become fantasy relevant beyond that of a bye-week option.
92. Zach Ertz: A mediocre athletic talent by NFL standards who has been overrated by stat jockeys since he came into the league, Ertz finally had a fantasy season ranked in the single digits at his position after three years of analysts telling us to wait for it. Ertz required over 100 targets to earn starter production in 12 team leagues during the past two years and during those years, the Eagles have been barren at wide receiver. Alshon Jeffery, Torrey Smith, and possibly a renewed Nelson Agholor should bolster this corps. Ertz offers little to no upside.
91. Theo Riddick: Ameer Abdullah is the starter, Zach Zenner could be the goal line option, and Marvin Jones is healthy. Between Abdullah, Jones, and Golden Tate, Riddick looks like a losing proposition. The Lions obviously feel that when the offense is feeding Riddick, it's a losing situation in the way the Jaguars felt about feeding T.J. Yeldon. Do you want to take a handcuff with no red zone value this early?
90. Frank Gore: Donte Moncrief got hurt last year, Dwayne Allen couldn't stay healthy, Phillip Dorsett couldn't run short and intermediate routes, and Andrew Luck had been playing with a partially torn labrum since 2015. Despite Luck's gritty top-tier fantasy production, the Colts needed to run the ball. Gore earned at least 18 touches in 10 contests last year. Despite Luck's injury, opposing defenses knew that the Colts quarterback could still hurt them. Combined with Luck's skill at the line of scrimmage, Gore benefited from his veteran quarterback. As of today, Luck is throwing a tennis ball. I know Jene Bramel believes there's enough time for Luck to progress to throwing the ball that is actually used in this sport sometime before the opener, but it's cutting things close. If Luck isn't ready or suffers a setback, Father Time of running backs won't have a top field general checking in and out of run plays and adjusting the direction of his carries at the line of scrimmage. That's a bigger deal than many let on.
89. DeSean Jackson: Jameis Winston is still reckless as of this weekend in training camp. While the aggressive demeanor could mean big weeks for Jackson, it could also lead to Dirk Koetter putting the governor on the Buccaneers' quarterback. Don't think he won't after he clamped off Winston's arm early in the year? When your coach pounds the rock against the Panthers with Jacquizz Rodgers on a nationally televised game, he's saying to Winston, did I stutter? Taking the slinger away from his gun is difficult and Jackson could be an innocent bystander.
88. Kirk Cousins: There is no doubt that Cousins has improved his game since arriving from Michigan State as the golden boy of that class of rookie quarterback prospects. Evaluators gushed about his leadership and grittiness. They effectively ignored that Cousins wrote checks with throws that his arm couldn't cash. Although less frequent, Cousins is still committing these crimes and getting away with it far more often than any quarterback I have seen since Nick Foles' first year with the Eagles. A play that encapsulated this behavior, and the ability to get away with it, was a red zone throw from an off-balanced position against Minnesota that was so inaccurate that both Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr had great angles for the interception. And as luck continued to have it, Kendricks and Barr collided trying to catch the ball and hurt each other. Both had to temporarily leave the game, much to the benefit of Cousins. While the receiving corps looks good, if Jordan Reed isn't too hurt, these throws will catch up with Cousins if he doesn't stop and I fear that he's been getting away with this behavior for too long to curtail it. Woe is you if this offensive line allows 1-2 extra QB pressures per game because Cousins will see himself as mash-up of Brett Favre and John Elway.
87. Pierre Garcon: DeSean Jackson, Jamison Crowder, and Jordan Reed aren't in San Francisco to help Garcon earn excellent matchups. At the same time, Garcon led the NFL in targets in 2013 when he was the best game in town for Robert Griffin in Kyle Shanahan's Washington offense. But are you going to trust that Garcon's analytics will transfer this neatly into the context of the 49ers personnel? He's not a touchdown machine and the 49ers aren't likely to score many with its crew. His ADP makes him a value as a potential high-volume target because he's the only game in town. However, San Francisco's best fantasy receiver last year was 59th-ranked, Jeremy Kerley. 5-9. Although Garcon will be the No. 1 option with the 49ers, this team doesn't even have the proven likes of Santana Moss or a young Jordan Reed as complements.
86. Ben Roethlisberger: He's hinting at retirement and he hasn't stayed healthy for a full 16-game slate since 2014. It's a good sign that the baling wire is emerging from Roethlisberger's uniform.
85. DeVante Parker: What can go wrong often will. Murphy's Law. The most notable part of Parker's first two seasons has been his glaring inattention to detail on the field, in the film room, and with off-field training and conditioning. This year, he's figured this out. So what does Uncle Murphy do? Yep, he trips up Ryan "I'll be leading the O.R. team with my pre-med degree" Tannehill last week and now the Dolphins are going with Jay Cutler. On the surface, this is a great pairing for Parker because Cutler loves tight-windows and see-it-throw-it football that relies on athletic receivers to lean on their God-given talent. But f there's anyone in the NFL whose face embodies the essence of dear ole Uncle Murph...
84. Derrick Henry: Because Bloom is so enamored with the bright and shiny toy of a big back with burst and DeMarco Murray's 2016 as a last hurrah, that he's trying to will Henry as a "thing" when training camp talk about Henry primed for a big year is little more than an aspirational training camp story that rarely pans out (and you think I'm the cruel one?). We see it every year.
83. Delanie Walker: Eric Decker, Rishard Matthews, and Corey Davis tie Walker's game to a spit over a fire and cannibalize his targets.
82. Cam Newton: The Panthers don't want him to run and Newton told the media last year that he had to run less if he wanted to lengthen his career. Without those rushing yards, Newton is a backup fantasy passer unless his offensive line dramatically improves and one of his receivers approximates Steve Smith. I don't see it.
80. Jameis Winston: See DeSean Jackson's entry.
79. Marcus Mariota: A good passer with grit and intelligence, Mariota remains a task-oriented passer. This is not a knock on Mariota. Tom Brady is a task-oriented player who performs at an extraordinary level. Unlike Brady, Mariota can run, which in some ways can be a curse. Ask Robert Griffin, who never had a great feel for the rush or creating plays with his legs. Get him into open field and his speed killed defenses, but I'm talking about those critical moments where Griffin didn't know how to take care of himself or create with wisdom. Mariota has lacked in this area as well. When the Titans design runs for him, he looks good. When he's asked to scramble the hits and turnovers fly. I don't have a great argument against Mariota, except I'm not sure I want a starter whose greatest issue is taking care of himself. He may be good, but he does no one any good in the training room.
78. Kyle Rudolph: Finally healthy, Rudolph had a career year in an offense that didn't have a healthy receiver beyond Adam Thielen. Now they do.
77. Eddie Lacy: Thomas Rawls is younger and C.J. Prosise is younger and arguably more versatile. He might be just as talented as Lacy, but he's lacking Lacy's experience. Of course, the greatest bump for young players is between the first and second year and running backs usually catch on this early if they're going to emerge at all. The fact that Prosise still thinks he has a shot to emerge as the lead back may be "talk" but we also know Pete Carroll rarely plays politics with his depth charts.
76. Paul Perkins: There are some Devonta Freeman-like traits to Perkins' game and he could emerge as a surprise star in his sophomore season. However, Freeman's emergence coincided with a vastly improved Falcons offensive line. The Giants have a young, cohesive line that Matt Bitonti believes is underrated. However, Wayne Gallman, Orleans Darkwa, and Shane Vereen could also benefit from this improving unit in the same way that the entire running back depth chart faltered during the line's struggles during the past two seasons.
75. Derek Carr: The media-beloved Carr would have been a top-10 fantasy quarterback last year if not for injury. He also had a boom-bust running game with Latavius Murray who earned nearly 50 percent of his rushing yards in 4 games. If Marshawn Lynch stays healthy, his decision-making is far more consistent the Murray and that will lead to a level of productivity that could cap Carr's attempts and yardage.
74. Donte Moncrief: If you project Moncrief's touchdown rate from last year to a full season, his potential is in the double digits. No one really does that, though. The red zone is less predictable and we know that players often get hot during periods of the season and tail off. It's likely that Moncrief's injury occurred during a hot streak of scoring production. Is he a future WR1 or an athletic WR2 whose career has reached a plateau. If Andrew Luck can't progress past a tennis ball in August, we may still be asking this question in 2018.
73. Tyler Eifert: The Bengals offensive line lost two of its best players and when lines struggle, coaches often keep tight ends in-line to pass protect. Eifert may stretch the seam as well as any tight end in the game, but Joe Mixon can do that from the backfield and earn more after the catch. Tyler Boyd can also work the middle in three-receiver sets with Eifert still at the line. Throw a healthy Giovani Bernard into that mix and it's clear that if the priority is to keep Andy Dalton upright, Eifert will be the first option whose fantasy totals suffer.
72. Brandon Marshall: He's old, he's on a loaded depth chart, and if Jay Cutler's play inspired arguments, wait until Marshall gets a load of the throws that inspire "Eli Manning face." Marshall better be careful, Manning might call his daddy and organize a team boycott until the Giants trade Marshall if the veteran has a halftime tirade (look, I'm trying here...I like Marshall despite his age. But I too and raging against the dying of the light.).
71. Mike Gillislee: Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett were walking wounded much of the year, which led to an inordinate amount of touches inside the five for LeGarrette Blount. Don't expect the same for Gillislee, who will also be contending with a much healthier Dion Lewis and an upgraded depth chart consisting of Rex Burkhead. With a depth chart of this caliber, there will be a low tolerance for error. It's one thing to play well when you're on the way up and have nothing to lose. It's another to be the anointed starter for the first time and for a championship team.
70. Doug Martin: There's no doubt that Martin is the most talented back on this roster and arguably the most talented back in the NFC West. However, GM Jason Licht is so tired of Martin's past behavior that he told the media there was no guarantee that Martin would get the starting job upon his return from suspension. I don't believe that, but it shows that any slip-up from Martin will be dealt with harshly. Considering that Martin has only delivered twice in five years doesn't make this encouraging.
69. Danny Woodhead: Coming off an ACL tear, the greatest concern is burst and change of direction quickness. Will it return? It's usually the last thing to return and it's the bread and butter of Woodhead's game. Rapport with his quarterback is also another critical aspect of Woodhead's skills and the rapport he built with Joe Flacco is on ice until at least early September. Even so, Woodhead has played with top decision-makers like Brady and Philip Rivers. Flacco isn't in their class and leaning on Woodhead to provide value as a mid-round option with early-round upside could be fool's gold.
68. Bilal Powell: I might have built the Bilal Powell bandwagon in fantasy football when Powell was starring at Louisville. However, I wasn't as impressed with Powell as my peers were last year. He benefited from a lot of runs in passing down situations. His best plays were draws and runs to end from the shotgun. He still has to prove that he can get it done between the tackles on downs where the defense is expecting run. I fear Powell has already shown what he is: a good reserve with starter moments but lacking every-down upside.
67. C.J. Anderson: A terrific zone runner, Anderson will be asked to operate from a gap-heavy attack that isn't the ideal match for his style. It leaves the window open for Devonte Booker to take the job when he returns in September. De'Angelo Henderson has the most experience in a gap system and the rookie has turned heads with his play early on, including reps with the first-team offense.
66. Kelvin Benjamin: The Eddie Lacy of wide receivers lost a lot of weight this summer. When you undergo this kind of dramatic weight loss, the body will not always respond well to the stress of the transformation. Don't be surprised if Benjamin suffers muscle and/or ligament injuries because he hit the Ben & Jerry's harder than the route tree.
65. Emmanuel Sanders: Paxton Lynch or Trevor Siemian? Trevor Siemian or Paxton Lynch? I have a feeling this will be the question all year long and those changes will result in a lack of rapport and consistent communication that leads to big plays. Sanders is a fantastic player waiting for Chad Kelly to emerge in 2018.
64. Willie Snead: He wants to do more in the vertical game this year. Lavar Ball wants to beat Michael Jordan in one-on-one. Jamaal Charles wants to prove to the world that he's the same player he ever was despite the Broncos handling him with kid gloves. Johnny Manziel wants another chance in the NFL.
63. Jamison Crowder: He had three red zone scores last year and now the team has Terrelle Pryor and a healthy Josh Doctson. If Jordan Reed gets healthy, Crowder will be lucky if he earns his 2016 scoring production. Washington didn't have red zone options with the potential of Pryor and Doctson. Despite his title as a starter in base sets, Crowder's role could be the same, if not smaller than what it was last year.
62. Ameer Abdullah: Yes, Abdullah is the starter, but Zach Zenner earned goal line looks this week in training camp. He's the starter, but Theo Riddick is an accomplished passing down back. He's the starter, but the Lions offensive line is nicked up and still has question marks. Combine these three things with Abdullah's ball security woes and flashes of elite play may not be tempting enough for fantasy owners to pull the trigger.
61. Mark Ingram: Alvin Kamara and Adrian Peterson have their weaknesses, but both have the talent to take a large enough role away from Ingram, who's had enough uninspiring moments to lose time to Chris Ivory and Tim Hightower during his career. In fact, the Saints tried to trade Ingram during the draft. I'm sure feeling inspired to take Ingram at the top of the sixth round now...
60. Jimmy Graham: The Seahawks haven't unlocked Graham's red zone prowess since he arrived in Seattle. You'd think it would be the first thing they did, but Graham has only scored 8 times during the past 27 games compared to 10 scores during his 16 games in 2014. While he earned 5 of his touchdowns inside the 20 last year, only 1 came from inside the 5. During Graham's final year in New Orleans, he had 5 scores from inside the 5. Seattle has been stubborn with its plan in recent years. Perhaps that will include Graham's lack of red zone production.
59. Russell Wilson: The offensive line was horrific last year. While George Fant has transformed his body and actually looks like a left tackle, it remains to be seen if he'll fulfill that promise this year. Part of Seattle's stubbornness with its offense has been its faith in line coach Tom Cable finding the correct combination of players and developing them in time to help the team become a contender. It worked halfway through 2015 but failed miserably last year. Because Seattle seems hell bent on recreating the same game plan that it used during Marshawn Lynch's prime, it appears as if the development of the passing offense is being stunted.
58. Stefon Diggs: A strong route runner who was limited for most of the year with an injury, Diggs has big-play upside due to his speed and burst. However, Diggs isn't a big player and it remains to be seen if Sam Bradford will trust him in contested situations when Laquon Treadwell, Kyle Rudolph, and Adam Thielen are all healthy and capable of earning separation that doesn't require Bradford to go to Diggs at all cost. With only two touchdowns in the red zone during the past two years, his role might not differ much from the worst-case for Jamison Crowder.
57. Tevin Coleman: The Falcons are working hard on Devonta Freeman's contract extension, which leads me to wonder if Coleman will earn a new deal when his expires next year. Coleman is a fine weapon in space and still has potential to mine as a runner between the tackles. However, there's still a gap between potential and reality when comparing Coleman's every-down acumen to a player like Freeman. While I've heard arguments that Coleman makes Freeman better because of his threat as a receiver when both are on the field, I'd argue that Freeman's ability to earn tough yards in stacked boxes opened the flats for Coleman to thrive last year. The NFL tends to catch up to one-dimensional players after a year of exposure to the way an offense uses them. Coleman isn't one dimensional, but he's closer to that label in role and skill than Freeman. If the Falcons don't have an answer to how defense's address Coleman, then Coleman's value could be far more boom-bust than believed.
56. Spencer Ware: The Chiefs didn't draft Kareem Hunt in the third round to backup Ware, did they? The same has been said about Kenyan Drake, C.J. Prosise, Duke Johnson, Charles Sims, Montee Ball, Knile Davis, David Wilson, Daniel Thomas, Alex Green, Toby Gerhart, Shonn Green, and Glen Coffee. Despite the glaring track record of third-round (and some second-rounders included here) busts, Ware's promising 2015-2016 performances ended after a concussion he sustained against the Colts last year. Ware's red zone production was disappointing throughout the year as well. The one edge Ware has on paper and on film against Hunt is his work in the passing game. However, Hunt has performed well in drills. If that translates to the preseason, Ware will lose a significant amount of touches.
55. Matt Ryan: Russell Wilson, Cam Newton, Blake Bortles, and Carson Palmer all took significant steps backward as players or their surrounding talent faltered around them. These declines and Tom Brady's suspension opened the door for Ryan to earn a top-three season despite supporting only one top-36 fantasy receiver in the offense. Atlanta's new offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian is well aware of the offense's lack of versatility among its receivers not named Julio Jones. However, it's one thing to aspire for receivers to enhance their respective route trees, it's another for them to do it well during real games. Mohamed Sanu flashed these skills in Cincinnati between rounds of dropped passes. Gabriel has more upside than Sanu as a timing route runner, but he's still a young player and you'd really prefer the bigger Sanu to have the timing route skills. We know that Ryan is capable of spreading the ball around, but can Sanu show more than flashes? He hasn't thus far. If Sanu, Gabriel, and/or Austin Hooper fail to emerge, Ryan could have another good season but the context of the league's quarterbacks could change enough that his efforts aren't commensurate with his ADP.
54. Martavis Bryant: The league hasn't even fully reinstated Bryant and as a result, he's not getting time with his teammates in training camp. August is still an important time for readying players for contact. Bryant has been missing this contact for over a year. As good as he can be, a fifth-round pick on a player who isn't even the primary option for a passing offense that can easily close up shop and turn the offense into a two-man show starring Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown doesn't seem like an intelligent risk.
53. Larry Fitzgerald: John Brown's thigh could be the most pivotal body part in the Cardinals passing attack. It was a symptom of a sickle cell issue last year. This year, he looked like his old self before suffering an injury during the first week of camp that has the Cardinals approaching Brown with extra caution. Beyond Fitzgerald and Brown, there are a bunch of young and/or unsung players who are capable of big plays but won't strike consistent fear because they lack great versatility. In fact, the Cardinals offense looks a lot like the Falcons' worst case scenario. Add the popular analysis that Carson Palmer's tired arm is an excuse for an overall decline, and it's difficult to get excited about Fitzgerald having any upside whatsoever.
52. Dalvin Cook: He's a fumbler who was rarely asked to pass protect at Florida State. Don't listen to any analyst who quips, "With Cook's receiving prowess, who is going to ask him to pass block that often?" Plenty of teams will expect him to pass protect. You see, there's this concept in the NFL that happens even more frequently than in college football. It's called the "audible" and it's a favorite tool of competent NFL veteran quarterbacks. Running backs who can't keep up find themselves on the bench or stuck in reduced roles. I seem to recall that Giants runner David Wilson had great speed and balance like Cook but was also a fumbler. Now he's an Olympic hopeful.
51. Julian Edelman: The Patriots' leading receiver in 2016 earned 98 catches, 1106 yards, and only 3 touchdowns despite injuries to Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett. How will that change with Brandin Cooks added to the equation? A healthy Dion Lewis, who the Patriots like to target as a receiver out of the backfield when inside the 30. How about Malcolm Mitchell and his skill as a rebounder? Even if Edelman somehow doubles his touchdown total with a healthy corps of teammates, it's more likely that his reception and yardage totals will decline and generate a net loss in production. This ADP seems fitting for a player who the Patriots seem ready to give a reduced role in the pecking order.