ABOUT MY TIERS
My 2015 tiers have greater subtlety of detail than previous incarnations. It's not a fully realized fantasy TripTik. I'm not sure it will ever be.
One of the differences between my tiers and others is that I ordered the players by ADP rather than my ranking. As you read on, you'll begin to understand how these tiers will help you identify multiple, successful ways to build a competitive roster. They also share a thought process and a method for organizing rankings:
- My rankings (MW).
- Average draft position (ADP).
- Round Value (Value):
- Rx (x equals the round value based on my rankings).
- Par (my rankings and ADP are within 12 picks for the first 6 rounds; within 24 picks for rounds 7-20).
- How I value each player's potential this year (Class):
- U = Underrated - A greater talent than many analysts and fans regard him.
- S = Safe - A combination of talent, opportunity, and scheme that limits his downside.
- BB = Boom-Bust - Talent, opportunity, and/or scheme presents high upside, but equal downside.
- LC = Low Ceiling - Talent, opportunity, and/or scheme presents limited upside.
- H = High Upside - Talent, opportunity, and scheme presents high upside.
- Color-coded tiers/values - My tiers are ordered by ADP and the tier headings are color coded. Players are also color coded to match the tier where I value them. For instance, Marshawn Lynch has an ADP of 13, which places him in the Round 2 tier. I value him as a Round 1 player (No.4) overall. Lynch's info is highlighted the same color as the Round 1 tier heading although he's listed in the Round 2 tier.
Before I share the tiers, let's review relationships among players based on my value of them relative to their ADP. Learning more about these value exchanges should help you formulate draft options that integrate my views with yours. Getting faimilar with these player relationships should also make the tiers more useful.
Last month, I introduced you to the idea of value exchanges--players I'm willing to draft in lieu of the "name brand" option because I expect enough upside to offer similar value at a lower price tag. This post examines the players in these tiers through the lens of risk-reward:
- The safe build: A conservative draft that builds a team where at least 15 of your players in a 20-round draft will quailfy as safe, safe-high upside, or low ceiling options.
- The balanced build: A draft with an even balance of safe and safe-high upside options where 10-12 of your players in a 20-round draft will qualify as underrated, high upside, and boom-bust options.
- The high-risk build: A "play to win" team built with a majority of options (15 players in a 20-round draft) that are high-upside, underrated, and boom-bust.
As I take you through my tiers, I'm going to gradually build three teams--one from each category above--to give you an idea of what these philosophies will yield. Most of you will veer somewhere in the middle of the balanced build and conservative build or the balanced build and the high-risk build, meaning 12-14 of your choices will have a safer or risk-friendly bent. Keep that in mind as I profile more extreme examples on each side and a perfectly balanced team in the middle.
For the sake of this exercise, I'm picking 9th in a 12-team serpentine draft with a starting lineup of 1 QB, 2-3 RBs, 3-4 WRs, 1-2 TEs, 1 DEF, and 1 PK
Round 1, Pick 9
Safe, Balanced, and High-Risk Build Option-RB Marshawn Lynch: The Seattle starter is the best safe pick according to my tiers. If I were going higher-risk, Matt Forte has a higher ranking from me, but I'm listing him as an underrated player who I value 8 spots higher than his ADP of 12. If you're drafting safe, Lynch's ADP of 9 is a narrower gap between group-think and my rankings than Forte. I'm a risk-friendly drafter by nature. Even so, I tend to play it safe in the first round and Lynch is my kind of pick on either side of the risk-reward spectrum.
Round 2, pick 16
Safe Build-QB Andrew Luck: I have Luck 27th overall in my rankings. I don't project as close to the upside potential of a quarterback's production, becuase it's too difficult to predict, but if I'm seeking a safe pick with huge upside Luck and his offensive additions of potential Hall of Famers Andre Johnson and Frank Gore fit the bill. If Jordy Nelson falls to this spot, I'd consider him an equal or safer pick than Luck, but lacking Luck's upside. As ADP dictates, Luck fits the bill as the player still available who is most likely to retain his value as a first-tier starter. Thus far: Lynch-Luck
Balanced Build-RB DeMarco Murray: Like many fantasy owners, I subscribe to the idea that the gap in fantasy production among QB1s isn't enough to warrant taking an early-round passer unless you are adept at hitting the bull's eye on the potential record breaker year after year after year. Since most of us lack that kind of uncanny accuracy, targeting a top player at a non-QB position has merit. Concerns that Murray will cede more time to reserves in Philly have dropped his fantasy stock.
Keep in mind that the Eagles have a strong offensive line and, as good as Ryan Mathews can be, the new reserve has rarely met the Chargers' expectations. The gap between Murray's ADP and my ranking is also a bigger positive than the narrow gap between LeSean McCoy's slightly better ADP, but lower personal ranking. There's a good possibility that a Lynch-Murray fantasy backfield gives you two starters with top-10 production--maybe top-5 production--by year's end. Thus far: Lynch-Murray
High-Risk Build-RB Justin Forsett: ADP? You don't need no stinking ADP! You need players you value most. I value Forsett more than Murray despite his ADP of 25. If I'm going for broke, why am I going to take Murray if I value Forsett more and my third round pick is the 33rd spot? There's little chance Forsett falls eight spots to me. The time to strike is now. If I'm right, I just landed two backs in run-heavy offenses that love to use one back as its centerpiece. This could be a beautiful. Then again, Lynch and Forsett are a little older and Forsett has that "one good year," label by the naysayers. Thus far: Lynch-Forsett
Round 3, Pick 33
Safe Build-RB Frank Gore: If you believe the Colts' offense will be a top-producer, why buy shares in both its air and ground attack? Your team's touchdown production should remain consistently strong. Some people will say that Gore is a higher risk due to age and a new team. The history argument that has been used to fade Gore's value lacks the context for it to have legs. Gore's 1100 yards last year makes him the exception to the names of backs listed as examples of great runners who switched teams in their 30s and bombed. Those backs also switched teams after poor production with their original teams or to be backups with their new teams.
Gore is moving as a productive starter. The only player to match this situation was Steven Jackson moving to Atlanta and one player is not enough to offer a compelling history, even if the variables involved prove to be similar. I have Gore as a safer pick than Lamar Miller, a younger player, but I have listed as a high upside pick. Thus far: Lynch-Luck-Gore
Balanced Build-WR Jordan Matthews: This is where you begin to look ahead and consider the best values and how to mix and match around ADP rather than abiding ADP. I personally have Matthews ranked 61st overall despite having an ADP of 35. While I believe he's a safe pick and a solid WR2, I don't see much upside for him as a high-end WR2 or WR1 in an Eagles offense that probably won't use Matthews in the Jeremy Maclin role as much as Nelson Agholor. If I'm going strictly round-by-round, I would consider Gore or Miller over Matthews, but that's not how you stand to get the most value from a tiered draft board.
My fourth-round pick is the 40th overall and my fifth pick is the 57th overall. Looking ahead, Andre Ellington's ADP of 42 and personal value of 17 trumps both Gore and Miller's value. If Ellington gets taken before I can grab him in the fourth, Travis Kelce and Keenan Allen both appeal to me as values and if they're gone, I'll reach for Joseph Randle as my third back, considering my personal value for him is 23rd and his ADP his 51. When my fifth-round pick arrives, I should see Martavis Bryant, DeSean Jackson, Brandon Marshall, and John Brown as options I can take near value or reach a bit. All four provide weekly potential as high-upside producers to complement Matthews' likely consistency. In a sense, I'm getting my WR2 first and following up with a boom-bust WR1 a round or two later. Thus far: Lynch-Murray-Matthews
High-Upside Build-RB Andre Ellington: Are ADP considerations really going to force me into that kind of mental gymnastics when the best player on the board according to my ranking is Ellington and I'm going to risk losing my 17th-ranked player overall by waiting for him with the 42nd pick so I can take my 61st player in the third just because most people value Matthews more? Most reasonable people thought the world was flat once upon a time, too. No thanks, I'm taking Ellington now. Then I can take one of Travis Kelce or Keenan Allen in the fourth round.
Ellington is the quintessential conservative drafter's nightmare, because the risk of conservative thinking is that you always risk being a year behind every trend waiting for proof. You're the economist who has to wait for the data to declare there's a recession or a recovery when there's an enough anecdotal evidence to act as an individual. No offense to economists, it's important for them to be true to a scientific standard. Unless you have a real problem, risk won't destroy your life in fantasy football.
Last year fantasy owners were high on Ellington based on his previous year's production. This year, the surrounding talent is better and Ellington is healthy, but owners are lower on Ellington for the same reason: previous year's production. If you're a risk-friendly drafter, this statement makes you snicker. If you're a conservative drafter, you're probably puffing your chest and thinking, "That's right, those are the facts--I'm no fool."
I'm snickering. Thus far: Lynch-Forsett-Ellington
Round 4, Pick 40
Safe Build-WR Keenan Allen: The safest pick for the fourth round, if the fourth round were in a vacuum, is Ellington. But my team needs a wide receiver or a tight end. Travis Kelce has the lower ADP, but if I bypass Allen I won't see another receiver near that preseason value for the rest of the draft. My personal rankings also give Allen the slightest edge. Plus, there's a better chance that Greg Olsen drops three picks below his ADP to me in the fifth round and I'd be satisfied with Martellus Bennett in the sixth. Allen is healthy, he plays with a good quarterback, and I'm selecting him at market value rather than upside value. Thus far: Lynch-Luck-Gore-Allen
Balanced Build-RB Andre Ellington: Why reach for Ellington when he can fall to me a round later? If he doesn't, Joseph Randle is still available for me to reach here in the fourth if I'm that hard-up for a third back. I'll happily take the upside of Bryant or Marshall in the fifth, because I'm confident that I'll find mid-round starters at receiver. Thus far: Lynch-Murray-Matthews-Ellington
High-Risk Build-WR Keenan Allen: Here's one of those places where safe and high-risk intersect on a single player. Allen is my best personal value on the board. While I think Travis Kelce could have elite tight end upside, it makes him the equivalent of a WR15-18. I see this as Allen's floor. Thus far: Lynch-Forsett-Ellington-Allen.
Round 5, PIck 57
Safe Build-WR Brandon Marshall: Martavis Bryant has a better ADP, but Markus Wheaton is the starter opposite Antonio Brown in Pittsburgh. As a safe drafter, I realize that's a title more than a role and true role likely goes to Bryant, who has the skills to earn top-15 production. My personal rankings have Bryant as a seventh-round value despite a fifth-round ADP, which makes Bryan a high-upside pick, but not as safe to as as a player like Brandon Marshall.
The Jets new receiver may lack a quarterback like Ben Roethlisberger, but he is the primary option in the offense and his ADP is close to Bryant's. My personal value of Marshall is much higher than Bryant's even if I think Bryant has equal upside potential. If I'm focused on safety, Marshall is a more proven option with a WR1 role in New York and that trumps Bryant in a better offense with a less proven track record and a WR3 role. Does the Geno Smith injury change my view? Not at all, DeAndre Hopkins fared well with Fitzpatrick and the veteran has no problem giving physical receivers opportunities to win contested targets.
Thus far: Lynch-Luck-Gore-Allen-Marshall
Balanced Build-WR Brandon Marshall: I seriously considered Roethlisberger here, but Eli Manning, Matt Stafford and Tom Brady offer enough value to me later and one of them will be there for me. Bryant also earned a close look, but let's not go overboard with the prospect of upside when the role, experience, and upside potential remains a viable expectation for Marshall. I already took a risk with Ellington, I don't need to go for broke this early with Bryant when a primary receiver is waiting here for me. Thus far: Lynch-Murray-Matthews-Ellington-Marshall
High-Risk Build-WR Brandon Marshall: I love Bryant's upside and I'm tempted to take him at his ADP despite him having a much a lower personal ranking than Marshall. That ranking is based on mid-range projections where I have Bryant a TD shy of Marshall's totals and a high-range projection would probably put Bryant in the double-digit range. But I Marshall's top-end TD potential is similar and his reception totals are higher even if his average per catch will likely be lower than Bryant's. Overall, I can see a scenario where Bryant out-performs Marshall, but I can also see 2-3 more likely scenarios where Marshall has the better fantasy year. Thus far: Lynch-Forsett-Ellington-Allen-Marshall
Round 6, Pick 64
Safe Build-TE Martellus Bennett: This is a boom-bust pick in my tiers, but his ADP, my need for a third TE, and my personal value of Bennett is higher than the ADP. Looking ahead, I'll have a more difficult time landing a similar value at TE during the next few rounds. My other considerations are Ameer Abdullah, Allen Robinson, and Vincent Jackson. I nearly took Abdullah, but Bennett is a safer pick and I have a solid chance of landing Isaiah Crowell as my No.3 RB, who I have ranked a spot ahead of Abdullah in my personal value despite an ADP that's 15 picks lower. If Bennett performs like he did last year, I got value at this position. Thus far: Lynch-Luck-Gore-Allen-Marshall-Bennett
Balanced Build-RB Ameer Abdullah: It came down to a 6-7-8-9 combo of A) Ameer Abdullah-Julius Thomas-Steve Smith-John Brown, B) Martellus Bennett-Isaiah Crowell-Steve Smith-John Brown, C) Ameer Abdullah-Matt Stafford-Jordan Cameron-John Brown, or D) Ameer Abdullah-Matt Stafford-Jason Witten-John Brown. I felt Option D was the safest. Abdullah gives me quality depth for Murray or Ellington, who have a history of getting nicked up. If I wait for Crowell, I risk landing a back who has a greater chance of winding up in a more pronounced three-way committee than Detroit's backfield despite greater upside as a feature back behind a great offensive line.
I also miss on my choice of Matt Stafford, Eli Manning, Brady or Tannehill. It means Philip Rivers becomes the last of the better "safe bets" at the position and I'll probably miss my shot at John Brown if I don't take a quarterback until Rivers. I also get my pick of two decent tight ends in Rudolph and Walker, who both have top-7 upside at the position while still landing Brown in the eighth. Plus, Abdullah should give me the kind of depth to potentially trade an RB for a WR or two. Thus far: Lynch-Murray-Matthews-Ellington-Marshall-Abdullah
High-Risk Build-RB Arian Foster: The considerations are simpler for the risk-friendly drafter. Do I take Bennett who is ranked a little higher or do I take the similarly ranked Abdullah who has more upside due to his position? Or do I take Foster, who doesn't have to be my starter, but could offer me top-5 upside once he returns to the field? If you're truly embracing talent and upside over need, Foster is the pick. I'll have an easier time finding WR talent via free agency or a trade than I will a RB with Foster's baseline and upside. There are also tight ends with similar upside as Bennett even if the downside is worse. If I want a shot at a winner-take-all build then adding Foster gives me more upside and options to control my destiny than coloring inside the lines with position needs and ADP. Thus far: Lynch-Forsett-Ellington-Allen-Marshall-Foster
Round 7, PIck 81
Safe Build-WR Michael Floyd: I considered Crowell, but there's another back at a lower ADP who I valued more in my projections with greater upside. Floyd may miss a couple of games or have limited targets, but he's the best value on the board based on ADP and personal value. Floyd will also be my first "unsafe" pick in seven rounds. I can afford to take a chance on a player with high-end WR2 potential and probably no worse than a WR4 floor. Thus far: Lynch-Luck-Gore-Allen-Marshall-Bennett-Floyd
Balanced Build-QB Eli Manning: Let's presume Matt Stafford got picked at 80. I'd still be happy with Manning. The ADP, personal value, and upside are similar. Plus, the Giants defense is worse than the Lions and both divisions have powerful offenses. If you don't like Manning here, there's always Tom Brady if you can stomach the potential for time served due to Deflategate. I'll take my chances with Manning and his talented receiving corps. Thus far: Lynch-Murray-Matthews-Ellington-Marshall-Abdullah-Manning
High-Risk Build-WR John Brown: Time to take a little risk and use ADP to my advantage. My top six players over the next two rounds based on my personal value are Devonta Freeman, Duke Johnson Jr, Michael Floyd, Brown, Chris Ivory, Eric Decker, and Delanie Walker. Freeman and Johnson project well, but I'm not a fan of their upside due to the committee roles. I also have four backs and while a fifth could give me 2-3 players of value for trade bait, I'm not drafting to trade--especially when trades are always problematic.
At this point, it makes more sense for me to pick my highest rated receiver a few rounds early, which give the opportunity to follow up with a quarterback and tight end of my liking. Taking Brown now, means at pick 88, Tom Brady or Eli Manning still have a reasonable chance of falling to me. If not, settling for Philip Rivers is an acceptable consolation 13 picks earlier than his ADP after I take Delanie Walker a couple of rounds early, but 13 picks later than I actually value him.
To be clear, my plan for the next three rounds is Brown-Brady/Manning-Walker or Brown-Walker-Rivers. When you value your rankings this much over ADP, you get more of the players you believe in. Thus far: Lynch-Forsett-Ellington-Allen-Marshall-Foster-Brown
Round 8, PIck 88
Safe Build-RB Doug Martin: If basing Martin's value solely on last-year's thinking, he's a risk. If basing safety on Martin's rookie production, potential upgrades to the offensive line, and Martin returning to the condition that made him a fantasy RB1, all the factors are there--including the lead role. Yes, Charles Sims may see a role in the passing game, but I'll take my chances with him as my No.3 RB. The fact that the coaching staff tabbed Martin the starter this early in camp is a significant statement to how good Martin must look. I value Martin personally as the 44th player overall and with a ADP of 91, it's a risk worth taking for a safe builder. Thus far: Lynch-Luck-Gore-Allen-Marshall-Bennett-Floyd-Martin
Balanced Build-WR John Brown: Grabbing Brown now and one of Delanie Walker or Kyle Rudolph gives me a receiving corps where it's possible that the production might be inversely proportionate to the order I picked them. In terms of upside, I think it's entirely possible. Thus far: Lynch-Murray-Matthews-Ellington-Marshall-Abdullah-Manning-Brown
High-Risk Build-QB Tom Brady: It's not difficult to presume that Brady falls a spot lower than his ADP and in this scenario, I'll jump all over it. While the chances seem remote to the media, there is still possibility for a settlement that minimizes the length of the suspension, which would make Brady at this spot wise for even the conservative drafter. Thus far: Lynch-Forsett-Ellington-Allen-Marshall-Foster-Brown-Brady
Round 9, Pick 105
Safe Build-WR Marques Colston: It's possible that John Brown lasts this long. The same is true of Eric Decker. Both players I have a high personal value ranking that makes them favorable at this ADP. But both player's are already on the rise as I'm writing this post. Brown was at 113 this weekend, but it's at 109 on Monday. Decker's might stall a bit with the Geno Smith news, but I based on the tone of fantasy owners on social media, it appears many believe Fitzpatrick helps the receiving corps and the news could actually elevate Decker's stock a little more.
It means the next likely choice is Colston, Pierre Garcon or I take a second quarterback. Philip Rivers is tempting, because it frees me up to trade Luck for a better receiver than what what's likely available in the ninth round if I get consistent production from the Chargers' QB. But conservative drafters favor drafting their starting lineups or trusting their rankings. Colston has a higher personal ranking, a similar ADP, and a good quarterback. Thus far: Lynch-Luck-Gore-Allen-Marshall-Bennett-Floyd-Martin-Colston
Balanced Build-TE Delanie Walker: You never know for sure if the tight end will get enough love from a rookie quarterback with the spread offense as his portfolio of college work. Walker earns the benefit fo the doubt because after Kendall Wright, the Titans depth chart at the receiver position is in flux. Marcus Mariota also had two good receiving tight ends in Colt Lyerla and Pharoah Brown, so I like the possibility of Walker repeating his strong 2014 performance. Thus far: Lynch-Murray-Matthews-Ellington-Marshall-Abdullah-Manning-Brown-Walker
High-Risk Build-QB Phillip Rivers: A seventh-round pick in the ninth at a position I still need? Sure, Delanie Walker sounds good. But I prefer having Rivers and Brady as a combo and taking Kyle Rudolph in the 10th round. Both quarterbacks hit and I can sell Brady on name value or play optimal matchups. Thus far: Lynch-Forsett-Ellington-Allen-Marshall-Foster-Brown-Brady-Rivers
ROUND 10, PICK 112
Safe Build-QB Philip Rivers: He's the best value on the board if John Brown is gone and I'm assuming his rise in ADP to pick 109 will continue to trend upward. Rivers gives me great depth to pair with Luck and potentially use Luck as trade bait if I have a catastrophic injury to one of my top starters. The rest of the quarterbacks on this list are decent for bye weeks, but they don't offer me the weekly upside that Rivers to realistically give me trade bait at QB if I need it. That's a failsafe I like having if taking a conservative team-building approach to my fantasy squad.Thus far: Lynch-Luck-Gore-Allen-Marshall-Bennett-Floyd-Martin-Colston-Rivers
Balanced Build-WR DeVante Parker: Marques Colston was a consideration. So was Kendall Wright. I like Wright's upside a little more than Colston's. I also like Parker's upside a lot more than both players. He's boom-bust pick, but I don't have many of these at this point of my draft. I think I can get better values than Colston or Wright later while not missing out on the upside of Parker due to following the ADP map. Thus far: Lynch-Murray-Matthews-Ellington-Marshall-Abdullah-Manning-Brown-Walker-Parker
High-Risk Build-TE Kyle Rudolph: I love the idea of an upside receiver like Parker, but there are more to mine from the late rounds. Grabbing my tight end two rounds lower than where I value him seems like a better option, especially when I still get a shot at some upside running backs like Arian Foster or Darren Sproles in the 11th. Thus far: Lynch-Forsett-Ellington-Allen-Marshall-Foster-Brown-Brady-Rivers-Rudolph
ROUND 11, PICK 129
Safe Build-TE Gates: I still have room to make upside picks and maintain a conservative approach and the second half is the time to consider options with upside. Gates is one of those guys and there's still a safety factor with his consistency. A Gates-Rivers connection is also nice if I trade Luck.Thus far: Lynch-Luck-Gore-Allen-Marshall-Bennett-Floyd-Martin-Colston-Rivers-Gates
Balanced Build-Kyle Rudolph: The Vikings tight end gives me the best upside of the remaining options and unlike Gates, Dwayne Allen, and Owen Daniels, there's not discernible timeshare. Thus far: Lynch-Murray-Matthews-Ellington-Marshall-Abdullah-Manning-Brown-Walker-Parker-Rudolph
High-Risk Build-WR Cody Latimer: I could have opted for safer picks like Kenny Stills, who was closer to this current tier on my list, but I don't have any true needs. Why not take a player with huge upside? Latimer fits the bill if Emmanuel Sanders or Demaryius Thomas get hurt. Thus far: Lynch-Forsett-Ellington-Allen-Marshall-Foster-Brown-Brady-Rivers-Rudolph-Latimer
ROUND 12, PICK 136
ROUND 13, PICK 153
ROUND 14, PICK 160
ROUND 15, PICK 177
ROUND 16, PICK 184
ROUND 17, PICK 201
ROUND 18, PICK 208
ROUND 19, PICK 225
ROUND 20, PICK 232
FINAL ROSTERS
It might not unfold this way for you, but I found that drafting on the extreme side of the "safe" spectrum kept me much more ADP conscious and not thinking or looking ahead as much as I should. As a result, I would have preferred to take 1-2 more runners than I did, but none of the picks were safe enough for me to consider them. I like the Safe Team, but I'm not in love with it. Even so there's potential trade bait and strong upside at receiver.
The Balanced Team yielded an even distribution of receivers and backs and I love the RB depth charth. The receivers feel a little weak to me, because Matthews and Brown aren't proven vets. I still like the group on paper because the trio of Jones, Johnson and Bowe should fill in gaps as needed. I'd love to leave a draft with this team. It truly feels balanced with safe and upside picksat each skill position.
The High-Risk Team is exciting with the likes of Latimer, Green-Beckham, Brown, Foster and Gray, but you can see how the tone of this squad would feel a little safer if three of those five upside picks I listed above were safer players. Even so, the Forsett, Ellington, Foster trio will be considered a boom-bust group by many. It's a team that could dominate if the starters play to expectation and 1-2 of the reserves reach their respective ceilings.
I like the Balanced Team the most, but I'd enjoy taking my chances with the High-Risk unit. Play around with your own risk-reward labels and try these build guidelines for yourself.