Imagine you're planning a car trip from Atlanta to Austin. There are several routes you can take. One of them is a 13 or 14-hour trek through Mobile, Alabama, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, and Houston, Texas. Another takes you through Birmingham, Jackson, and Shreveport.
MapQuest, Google Maps, or your car's GPS will give you the directions, but they won't supply a journey. None of them account for where to stay, where to eat, and what's worth seeing along the way. TripTik's supply those opportunities in abundance. It's why I'm a AAA guy when I'm trying to do more than get from A to B.
Fantasy rankings are the MapQuest, Google Maps, or GPS of draft "directions". It's a linear presentation that gets you from A to B, but it lacks nuance. When is it smart to deviate from a projection? Which players' projections are on a firm foundation and which are resting atop a sinkhole?
Which routes will enrich the travel experience? More often than we care to admit, the journey matters.
Depending on the detail of the writer, fantasy tiers are closer to a TripTik.
Every year for the past three, Sigmund Bloom and I have discussed our desire to present more nuanced draft plans that are still easy for readers to grasp. A snap shot of what's going on in our brains without the page looking like jumbo jet's instrument panel that has come to life in a horror movie.
Trust me, you don't want to see the inside of my brain unless you can handle the soundtrack. Bloom's noggin? Hmmm.
I'm advancing my tiers another step and it looks a bit like the instrument panel of a plane. Most of you are experienced enough fantasy pilots that I don't think you'll be overwhelmed. The journey might actually be easier.
ABOUT MY TIERS
My 2015 tiers have greater subtlety of detail than previous incarnations. It's not a fully realized fantasy TripTik. I'm not sure it will ever be.
One of the differences between my tiers and others is that I ordered the players by ADP rather than my ranking. As you read on, you'll begin to understand how these tiers will help you identify multiple, successful ways to build a competitive roster. They also share a thought process and a method for organizing rankings:
- My rankings (MW).
- Average draft position (ADP).
- Round Value (Value):
- Rx (x equals the round value based on my rankings).
- Par (my rankings and ADP are within 12 picks for the first 6 rounds; within 24 picks for rounds 7-20).
- How I value each player's potential this year (Class):
- U = Underrated - A greater talent than many analysts and fans regard him.
- S = Safe - A combination of talent, opportunity, and scheme that limits his downside.
- BB = Boom-Bust - Talent, opportunity, and/or scheme presents high upside, but equal downside.
- LC = Low Ceiling - Talent, opportunity, and/or scheme presents limited upside.
- H = High Upside - Talent, opportunity, and scheme presents high upside.
- Color-coded tiers/values - My tiers are ordered by ADP and the tier headings are color coded. Players are also color coded to match the tier where I value them. For instance, Marshawn Lynch has an ADP of 13, which places him in the Round 2 tier. I value him as a Round 1 player (No.4) overall. Lynch's info is highlighted the same color as the Round 1 tier heading although he's listed in the Round 2 tier.
Before I share the tiers, let's review relationships among players based on my value of them relative to their ADP. Learning more about these value exchanges should help you formulate draft options that integrate my views with yours. Getting faimilar with these player relationships should also make the tiers more useful.
VALUE EXCHANGES
Each position has players that we can classify like items in retail:
- Name Brand - These are the top-tier, premium picks.
- On Sale - Premium-caliber at a discount value or off-brand merchandise with good value.
- Thrift Store - Potential steals, but you have to hunt. Even if you locate them, their condition isn't always top-notch.
The exercise of identifying players with each of these values according to your rankings will enhance your decision-making because you'll have a clearer understanding of how you can shape your draft.
These values will change throughout training camp and I'll update both the value exchanges and the tiers at least once in August.
Quarterbacks (ADP in parens)
Most of my quarterback values are on par with their current ADP. There are three players that I believe offer enough value to target them as potential substitutes for the premium picks.
- Name Brands: Andrew Luck (21), Aaron Rodgers (26), Peyton Manning (50) and Russell Wilson (58).
- On Sale: Ben Roethlisberger (70).
- Thrift Store: Eli Manning (105) and Philip Rivers (114).
- RB1 Name Brands: Jamaal Charles (2), LeVeon Bell (3), Eddie Lacy (4), Adrian Peterson (5), and Matt Forte (8).
- RB1 On Sale: Arian Foster (16), Marshawn Lynch (13) and C.J. Anderson (14).
- RB1 Thrift Store: Justin Forsett (29).
- RB2 Name Brands: LeSean McCoy(17), DeMarco Murray(20), Jeremy Hill (23).
- RB2 On Sale: Joseph Randle (62).
- RB2 Thrift Store: Rashad Jennings (81) and Devonta Freeman (90).
- Latavius Murray (5th round)
- Giovani Bernard (5th round)
- T.J. Yeldon (5th round)
- Jonathan Stewart (5th-6th round)
- Joseph Randle (4th-6th round)
- Joique Bell (6th round)
- Ameer Abdullah (6th-7th round)
- Isaiah Crowell (7th round)
- Jennings (7th-8th round)
- Vereen (7th-8th round)
- LeGarrette Blount (7th-8th round)
- Devonta Freeman (7th-8th round)
- Charles Sims (8th-9th round)
- Duke Johnson Jr 8th-9th round)
- Doug Martin (9th round)
- Chris Ivory (9th round)
- David Cobb (9th-10th round)
- On-Sale WR1: Jordy Nelson (15) [Author's Note: This piece was written prior to Nelson's season-ending injury].
- On-Sale WR2: Brandon Marshall (54), Jeremy Maclin (63) and Michael Floyd (76).
- On-Sale WR3: Eric Decker (102), Steve Smith (104) and Anquan Boldin (106).
- Thrift Store WR3: Marvin Jones (156), Dwayne Bowe (170) and Kenny Britt (195).
- Top-3 TE Name Brand: Rob Gronkowski (9)
- Top-3 TE On Sale: Jimmy Graham (27)
- Top-3 TE Thrift Store: Travis Kelce (45)
- Mid-range TE On Sale: Delanie Walker (118) and Jason Witten (116)
- Mid-range TE Thrift Store: Larry Donnell (155), Kyle Rudolph (149) and Heath Miller (186).
PPR Tiers
Tier Info: I order the players by ADP rather than my ranking:
- My rankings (MW).
- Average draft position (ADP).
- Round Value (Value):
- Rx (x equals the round value based on my rankings).
- Par (my rankings and ADP are within 12 picks for the first 6 rounds; within 24 picks for rounds 7-20).
- How I value each player's potential this year (Class):
- U = Underrated - A greater talent than many analysts and fans regard him.
- S = Safe - A combination of talent, opportunity, and scheme that limits his downside.
- BB = Boom-Bust - Talent, opportunity, and/or scheme presents high upside, but equal downside.
- LC = Low Ceiling - Talent, opportunity, and/or scheme presents limited upside.
- H = High Upside - Talent, opportunity, and scheme presents high upside.
- Color-coded tiers/values - My tiers are ordered by ADP and the tier headings are color coded. Players are also color coded to match the tier where I value them. For instance, Marshawn Lynch has an ADP of 13, which places him in the Round 2 tier. I value him as a Round 1 player (No.4) overall. Lynch's info is highlighted the same color as the Round 1 tier heading although he's listed in the Round 2 tier.
Mock Drafts
Draft IV
When Russell Wilson falls to me in the sixth round, it's hard for me to resist taking him. It gives me confidence to wait a little longer to take a second quarterback and invest in more receivers with that round 9-13 block that I've been targeting.
Takeaways
- Use mock drafts to determine value exchanges across positions. For instance, "if you don't take WR Kendall Wright in the 8th round, what RBs are available?" How does this impact the shape of your draft?
- Incrementally assign more weight to players in your rankings/tiers based on their upside as you pass the halfway mark of your draft.
- Determine what those upside factors are for you. I have three, and I don't assign a player with a high upside tag unless two of these three conditions are met. If only one his met, I assign the boom-bust tag:
- Physical talent - Does the player have physical skills that make them a mismatch for even top opponents?
- Surrounding talent - Does the player have teammates that help or hurt this player's opportunities?
- Scheme/Role - Does the scheme or role that this player could earn due to injury or promotion offer enough opportunities for consistent production?
- If you determine a player is more than 2-3 rounds undervalued and believe strong enough in that assessment, experiment with ways to draft around it. Think of the financial advantages the Seahawks had building a football team around Russell Wilson's third-round, rookie contract? Translate that thinking to a fantasy football context.
- Spend time mocking scenarios that you wouldn't normally try. This will help you understand the way drafts are unfolding so you can be prepared with the strategies you actually prefer.