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Against The Spread Pool: Week 15

Jeff Pasquino's Against The Spread Pool: Week 15
By Jeff Pasquino, December 15, 2016

Against The Spread Pool: Week 15
Photo: USA Today Sports

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread.  Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (23) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line.  As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.   

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Here are the results from last week:

Road Team: OAK CHI ARI SD CIN DEN HOU WAS PIT MIN NYJ ATL SEA NO DAL BAL      
Home Team: KC DET MIA CAR CLE TEN IND PHI BUF JAC SF LAR GB TB NYG NE      
Favorite: KC DET MIA CAR CIN TEN IND WAS PIT MIN SF ATL SEA TB DAL NE      
Point Spread: -3.5 -7.5 -2.5 -1.5 -5.5 -1.5 -6.5 -1.5 -1.5 -3.5 -1.5 -5.5 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5 -7.5      
Staffer The Picks MNF LW YtD
Matt Bitonti OAK DET MIA CAR CIN TEN HOU WAS PIT MIN NYJ ATL GB TB NYG BAL 52 14 113
Aaron Rudnicki OAK DET ARI CAR CIN TEN IND WAS PIT MIN NYJ ATL GB TB DAL BAL 42 11 108
Alessandro Miglio KC CHI MIA CAR CIN DEN IND PHI PIT MIN SF LAR GB TB DAL BAL 47 10 98
Danny Tuccitto OAK CHI MIA CAR CIN TEN IND WAS PIT JAC SF ATL SEA TB DAL BAL 49 10 116
Jason Wood OAK DET MIA SD CIN TEN IND WAS PIT MIN NYJ ATL SEA TB NYG NE 46 10 111
John Mamula OAK CHI ARI CAR CIN DEN HOU WAS PIT MIN SF ATL SEA TB DAL BAL 45 10 104
Bear Heiser KC DET ARI SD CIN TEN IND WAS PIT MIN NYJ ATL SEA TB DAL NE 42 9 106
Chris Feery OAK DET ARI SD CIN TEN IND WAS PIT MIN NYJ ATL GB NO NYG NE 45 9 99
Clayton Gray OAK DET MIA SD CIN DEN HOU WAS BUF MIN SF ATL GB TB DAL BAL 51 9 105
Devin Knotts OAK DET ARI CAR CIN TEN IND WAS PIT JAC SF ATL GB TB NYG NE 46 9 108
Justin Bonnema OAK CHI ARI CAR CIN DEN IND WAS PIT JAC SF ATL GB TB DAL BAL 45 9 104
Phil Alexander OAK CHI MIA SD CIN DEN IND WAS PIT JAC SF ATL GB NO NYG BAL 43 9 113
Jeff Pasquino KC DET ARI SD CIN TEN IND PHI PIT MIN SF ATL GB TB DAL NE 50 8 104
Andrew Garda KC DET ARI SD CIN DEN IND WAS PIT MIN SF ATL GB TB DAL NE 70 8 104
Andy Hicks KC DET MIA CAR CLE TEN IND PHI BUF JAC SF LAR GB TB NYG BAL 45 8 104
Chris Kuczynski OAK DET ARI CAR CIN DEN HOU WAS PIT MIN NYJ ATL SEA NO DAL NE 50 8 103
Dave Larkin KC DET MIA CAR CIN DEN HOU WAS PIT JAC SF LAR SEA NO DAL BAL 45 8 102
James Brimacombe OAK DET ARI CAR CIN DEN IND PHI PIT MIN NYJ ATL GB NO NYG NE 47 8 112
Jeff Haseley KC DET MIA CAR CIN DEN HOU PHI BUF MIN NYJ LAR SEA TB DAL NE 44 8 92
Justin Howe OAK DET ARI SD CIN DEN HOU WAS PIT MIN SF ATL SEA TB DAL BAL 46 8 113
Mark Wimer KC DET ARI SD CIN DEN IND WAS PIT MIN SF ATL GB NO DAL BAL 42 8 101
William Grant OAK DET ARI CAR CIN DEN IND WAS PIT MIN NYJ ATL GB NO DAL NE 45 8 95
Keith Roberts OAK DET ARI SD CIN TEN IND WAS BUF JAC SF LAR SEA TB NYG NE 46 5 100

Remarkable.  Simply remarkable.  If you had followed Matt Bitonti's advice in Las Vegas this past weekend (or your office pool) you would be a very happy person come Tuesday as he was 14-2 on the week, blowing the rest of the staff out of the water.  Aaron Rudnicki's 11-5 record would have won most weeks, but not Week 14.  Oddly enough, Matt lost the first two games (Thursday Night Football and Detroit, who failed to cover), but was perfect after those two contests.  The guys at the top helped the staff's record overall, but all but one staffer (sorry Keith) had an 8-8 record or better.  Not a good week for the sportsbooks, but I am sure that they will survive.  This strong weekly showing (204-164, 55.4%) raised the staff further above 50% success levels to a 2,415-2,369 record, or 50.5% success rate.   

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week:

Road Team: LAR MIA IND PIT JAC TEN CLE PHI DET GB NO SF OAK NE TB CAR  
Home Team: SEA NYJ MIN CIN HOU KC BUF BAL NYG CHI ARI ATL SD DEN DAL WAS  
Favorite: SEA MIA MIN PIT HOU KC BUF BAL NYG GB ARI ATL OAK NE DAL WAS  
Point Spread: -14.5 -2.5 -4.5 -3.5 -5.5 -5.5 -10.5 -5.5 -4.5 -6.5 -2.5 -13.5 -2.5 -3.5 -7.5 -4.5  
Staffer The Picks MNF
Jeff Pasquino SEA MIA MIN PIT HOU KC BUF BAL DET GB ARI ATL SD NE DAL WAS 51
Aaron Rudnicki SEA MIA IND PIT JAC TEN BUF BAL NYG GB ARI ATL OAK NE TB WAS 42
Alessandro Miglio LAR NYJ MIN PIT HOU KC CLE BAL DET GB ARI SF OAK NE TB WAS 48
Andrew Garda SEA MIA MIN PIT HOU KC CLE BAL NYG GB ARI ATL OAK NE TB WAS 40
Andy Hicks LAR NYJ IND CIN JAC TEN CLE BAL DET GB ARI ATL OAK DEN TB WAS 61
Bear Heiser SEA MIA IND PIT JAC KC BUF PHI NYG CHI NO ATL OAK NE TB WAS 36
Chris Feery SEA NYJ IND PIT JAC TEN BUF BAL DET GB NO ATL OAK NE DAL CAR 48
Chris Kuczynski LAR MIA MIN PIT HOU KC CLE BAL DET GB ARI ATL OAK NE TB WAS 44
Clayton Gray SEA MIA MIN PIT HOU KC CLE BAL DET GB NO ATL OAK NE TB WAS 58
Danny Tuccitto LAR MIA IND CIN HOU KC CLE BAL DET GB ARI ATL OAK DEN TB CAR 49
Dave Larkin SEA MIA IND CIN HOU TEN BUF BAL DET GB ARI ATL SD DEN TB CAR 48
Devin Knotts LAR MIA IND PIT JAC TEN BUF BAL DET GB ARI ATL SD NE TB WAS 47
James Brimacombe SEA MIA IND PIT JAC TEN BUF PHI DET GB ARI ATL SD DEN TB CAR 48
Jeff Haseley LAR MIA MIN CIN HOU KC BUF BAL DET GB ARI ATL OAK DEN TB CAR 46
John Mamula LAR MIA IND PIT JAC KC BUF BAL DET GB ARI ATL OAK NE TB WAS 43
Justin Bonnema SEA NYJ IND PIT HOU KC CLE BAL NYG GB ARI ATL SD NE TB CAR 48
Justin Howe SEA MIA MIN CIN HOU KC CLE BAL DET GB ARI ATL OAK DEN TB CAR 51
Keith Roberts LAR NYJ IND CIN JAC TEN BUF BAL NYG CHI ARI ATL SD NE TB WAS 52
Mark Wimer SEA MIA MIN PIT HOU KC CLE BAL DET GB NO ATL OAK DEN DAL WAS 45
Matt Bitonti SEA NYJ MIN PIT HOU KC CLE PHI NYG CHI ARI ATL OAK NE TB WAS 52
Phil Alexander SEA MIA IND CIN JAC KC CLE BAL NYG GB ARI SF OAK DEN TB CAR 53
William Grant SEA NYJ MIN PIT HOU KC BUF BAL DET GB ARI ATL OAK NE TB WAS 51
Jason Wood LAR NYJ MIN PIT HOU TEN CLE PHI NYG GB NO SF OAK NE TB WAS 43

CONSENSUS WINNERS

The season is almost over, but getting everyone on the same page does not seem to be in the cards.  With 23 sets of picks all in now, many of the favorites are the picks this week.  Only two underdogs were clear picks as Tampa Bay had 20 votes while Detroit had 15.  Four teams were chosen 20 times (Atlanta, Baltimore, Green Bay, Tampa Bay) with two road teams in that mix in the Packers and Buccaneers.  Arizona was one step behind with 18 selections as the Cardinals host the Saints.  Oakland came in next with 17 of 23 selections as the Raiders visit San Diego but are a slight favorite.  Pittsburgh follows up with 16 choices in a trip to Cincinnati.  Seven teams come in with 14 or 15 picks this week, starting with Miami, New England, Washington, Kansas City and Detroit with 15 of 23 choices from the staff.  Seattle and Houston close out the group with 14 picks.  Only Detroit is an underdog from these seven teams, but three of them (Dolphins, Lions, Patriots) are on the road.  Two teams remain on the list with close to split decisions, as  Cleveland (12) and Indianapolis (12) are slightly chosen more than 50% of the time by the staff.  Week 15 looks to be yet another interesting week, so let's see how it all plays out.

ODDS AND ENDS

We are getting close to the end of the season, and the picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.

A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding.  That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder that it might seem.

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.

Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
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