Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
Last week was not so great, as a few favorites won but did not cover the number, and a few upsets hit the books as well. Week 15 is a different animal altogether, so let’s look to finish the season strong and on a winning note. Here we go:
Bye week teams: None
Teams returning from a bye: None
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
(Thursday) SEATTLE (-14.5) vs. LOS ANGELES
In case you missed it, the Rams fired Jeff Fisher right before he could become the losingest (is that a word?) head coach in the history of the NFL. There are two schools of thought after a team fires their coach – either they rally around the interim replacement and fight for their jobs, or they fold like a cheap tent. The tiebreakers clearly go towards Seattle, who is home on a short week and looking for every win that they can get as they try and get into the postseason. Plus, I’ve seen the Rams play – or what passes for playing for Los Angeles these days. I see Seattle looking for another victory, while the Rams are looking for tee times, Christmas gifts, and a ticket out of town if they can get it. PICK: Seahawks
(Saturday Night) MIAMI (-2.5) at NEW YORK JETS
First off, be sure to note that we have the first Saturday game of December (many more to come next week on Christmas Eve). With college football season over (and bowls about to begin), the NFL takes over some more real estate on the weekend schedule. That’s the good news. The bad news is that we have what looks to be another clunker of a game between the Jets and the Dolphins. Miami at 8-5 still has some slim playoff life, but with Ryan Tannehill out things do not look so great. Matt Moore is a capable backup, and the opposition is still the Jets, but this is a divisional clash that could go either way. With New York continuing to roll with a rookie quarterback (Bryce Petty) and questions about Matt Forte’s availability, I am going with the team that still is playing for the postseason. PICK: Dolphins
GREEN BAY (-6.5) at CHICAGO
This game is going to be played in the cold, and I do mean COLD! Game time temperatures are supposed to be about zero – Fahrenheit – and that tends to push teams more towards running games. That could favor the Bears, but I still think Aaron Rodgers will be willing to throw the ball a bit, even if it is shorter passes. Chicago is getting Alshon Jeffery back, but the Chicago quarterback is still Matt Barkley. He has played well, but am I really going to take Barkley over Rodgers? No. PICK: Packers
BUFFALO (-10) vs. CLEVELAND
It’s Cleveland, folks. Move along. PICK: Bills
BALTIMORE (-5.5) vs. PHILADELPHIA
Baltimore dropped their last contest to New England in Foxboro on Monday night, which was to be expected. The result is that the Ravens really have to run the table, especially next week against Pittsburgh. First they need to win this last home game of the regular season over the Eagles, who continue to struggle of late, especially on the road. Baltimore bounces back and wins by double digits in a must win game. PICK: Ravens
KANSAS CITY (-5.5) vs. TENNESSEE
This one is a more challenging pick, but I am sticking with that 85% rule (most of the time, about 85%, the point spread does not matter – either the favorite covers or the underdog wins outright). So I am just looking at recent trends and who needs this more. The Chiefs are 10-3, but they have two divisional games (Denver, at San Diego) left, so they need to keep winning to stay ahead of Oakland. Tennessee is 7-6, but they still have a trip to Jacksonville before a home game against the Texans in Week 17 that could be for the right to win the AFC South. The problem for Kansas City is that they are a Bottom 10 team against the run, which is the strength of the Titans. The good news for the Chiefs is that they can attack the Titans in the passing game, and Alex Smith had a great first half last Thursday. Getting the ball in the hands of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce will be the key, and I like those matchups. I’ll take Kansas City by a touchdown in what should look like a playoff game, 24-17. PICK: Chiefs
PITTSBURGH (-3) at CINCINNATI
Le’Veon Bell ran all over the Bills last week as the passing game pretty much got the week off thanks to his big day. Speaking of time off, the Bengals played the Browns last week. So what is left here? Cincinnati is giving up 4.5 yards per carry (tied for fifth-worst in the NFL), so look for a lot more (cow)Bell this week. The Steelers have been giving up more yards in the passing game, but after Tyler Eifert, the Bengals do not scare anyone with Tyler Boyd and Brandon LaFell. Pittsburgh needs this win to set up a big showdown next weekend as they host the Ravens for first place. PICK: Steelers
DETROIT (+4.5) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
The Lions are built to play indoors, as their offense comes mostly via the passing game right now with Matthew Stafford hitting his three wide receivers (Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, Anquan Boldin) and tight end Eric Ebron. Even their best rusher (Theo Riddick) is more of a receiver, but he may be out again. The Giants are strong against the pass and this game is going to be in the cold rain in New Jersey. The question then is whether or not the Giants can put up enough points to get a win (and cover) against a Detroit defense that has been playing very well of late. This is New York’s last home game of the year before trips to Philadelphia and Washington, and a game sandwiched between two divisional contests and a big win over Dallas screams “letdown” to me. I could see Eli Manning doing well, however, against Detroit as the Lions have yielded the second-best QB rating to opposing quarterbacks this year, but then again Darius Slay could be all over Odell Beckham Jr this week. This is a tough, tough call but I am going to take the points (gulp) in what should be a low-scoring, playoff-like environment. PICK: Lions
MINNESOTA (-4) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Do the Colts have something to play for? Yes. Can they live up to the need for a win? That’s the question. The Vikings have a solid defense, while the Colts barely have a defense. With Sam Bradford playing well and a passing rushing game, the Vikings could control this one from start to finish. Both teams think that they have a postseason run ahead of them, but a Vikings win here moves them to 8-6 with two divisional games left (at Green Bay, Chicago). A 10-6 finish is within reach. Meanwhile, the Colts are sinking fast at 6-7and may be out the hunt for the division if they lose and both the Texans and Titans win. Give me the team heading in the right direction here after a road win in Jacksonville. PICK: Vikings
HOUSTON (-6) vs. JACKSONVILLE
The Texans need this win in the division to move to 8-6 and set up what could be a Week 17 showdown with the Titans for the division. Yes the Bengals do come to town in Week 16, but that just adds fuel to the Houston fire that they can win both home games and be in a position for a virtual playoff game in two weeks. Jacksonville is pretty much done for the year, and most everyone knows that. Six points is nothing to sneeze at, but the Texans know the importance of this game and I think they cover that number. PICK: Texans
ARIZONA (-2.5) vs. NEW ORLEANS
The Cardinals get to play at home and at a 4PM start, which they have to be happy about after a bad loss last week in Miami. Odds are that they are out of the playoff race at 5-7-1, but nothing is over until they play out the schedule. Drew Brees has not looked so hot on the road this year, and he imploded against Tampa Bay last week. Arizona has a better defense than the Buccaneers, particularly against the pass, and they also have some guy named David Johnson. I will take Arizona at home to win by at least the field goal margin, something like 27-24 or 27-20. PICK: Cardinals
ATLANTA (-13.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Remember that 85% rule I mentioned earlier? This is where it really comes into play. The Falcons should be favored by MORE than 14 based on what I see, so getting them for less than two touchdowns is a bargain. The punters may never see the field in this one. Falcons 37, 49ers 20. PICK: Falcons
SAN DIEGO (+3) vs. OAKLAND
Stop me if you have heard this story before – the Chargers are playing a spoiler role in the AFC West this year. Philip Rivers seems to thrive in these situations, and now he gets the Raiders coming to town in a matchup of California teams (for now at least). The hidden matchup here is Kenneth Farrow against the Oakland run defense, which is giving up 4.7 yards per carry this season. Over the past four weeks, the Raiders are fifth worst in fantasy points against to running backs. Farrow might have a strong showing here, and with Derek Carr’s finger issue, this could come down to Rivers not having another meltdown. If he can keep his head on straight – a big if, I know – San Diego may get a big home win and wreck Oakland’s shot at the AFC West crown. PICK: Chargers
NEW ENGLAND (-3) at DENVER
Denver’s offense is completely stagnant when it comes to the run game, so now we have to consider if Trevor Siemian can move the ball against the Patriots. That’s a tough one, and I get the “revenge narrative” for A.J. Derby, but really, that’s a stretch. This has all the makings of a Blount game for New England as the Broncos are solid against the pass, but I am not picking against Tom Brady (or for Siemian) the way both teams are playing, regardless of where this game is played. PICK: Patriots
DALLAS (-7) vs. TAMPA BAY
To be clear, I like Tampa Bay, but the Cowboys have just been playing at another level all season long. Aside from two missteps to the Giants this year, Dallas is undefeated, while the Buccaneers are still figuring out how to me a winning franchise again. Jamies Winston, Cameron Brate and Mike Evans can all have productive games this week, but Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott will enjoy being back at home and produce plenty of offense in Dallas. The Cowboys do have the third worst QB rating against (favoring Tampa Bay’s passing attack) but this is a great spot to bounce back before a national television audience (again) and show everyone that Dallas has a big postseason run on their minds this year. PICK: Cowboys
(Monday) WASHINGTON (-4.5) vs. CAROLINA
Do you think that Josh Norman is looking forward to this matchup? Ted Ginn Jr may never come open in this game, so it will once again come down to Cam Newton and Greg Olsen figuring out how to move the ball. The hidden gem could be Jonathan Stewart, as the Washington defense is most suspect to the run, but I like Kirk Cousins to put up big numbers here against a Panthers defense that has been weak against the pass. Washington is 7-5-1 and needs to win out, which they can do with this game, another at Chicago and a final home game against the Giants (who might be locked into their spot by then). I like the narrative for Norman and the rest of his teammates to rally before a national TV audience to show that Washington is a playoff caliber team. PICK: Washington
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- GREEN BAY (-6.5) at CHICAGO
- KANSAS CITY (-5.5) vs. TENNESSEE
- PITTSBURGH (-3) at CINCINNATI
- ARIZONA (-2.5) vs. NEW ORLEANS
- SAN DIEGO (+3) vs. OAKLAND
- DETROIT “FOR THE WIN” (+185) at NEW YORK GIANTS (Good Odds)
- SAN DIEGO “FOR THE WIN” (+130) vs. OAKLAND
- 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+610 ODDS):
- BALTIMORE (+0.5) vs. PHILADELPHIA
- PITTSBURGH (+3) at CINCINNATI
- GREEN BAY (-0.5) at CHICAGO
- DALLAS (-1) vs. TAMPA BAY
- BUFFALO (-4) vs. CLEVELAND
- HOUSTON (EVEN) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- 7-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+890 ODDS):
- BALTIMORE (+0.5) vs. PHILADELPHIA
- PITTSBURGH (+3) at CINCINNATI
- GREEN BAY (-0.5) at CHICAGO
- DALLAS (-1) vs. TAMPA BAY
- BUFFALO (-4) vs. CLEVELAND
- HOUSTON (EVEN) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- KANSAS CITY (+0.5) vs. TENNESSEE
- 8-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+1275 ODDS):
- BALTIMORE (+0.5) vs. PHILADELPHIA
- PITTSBURGH (+3) at CINCINNATI
- GREEN BAY (-0.5) at CHICAGO
- DALLAS (-1) vs. TAMPA BAY
- BUFFALO (-4) vs. CLEVELAND
- HOUSTON (EVEN) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- KANSAS CITY (+0.5) vs. TENNESSEE
- (Monday) WASHINGTON (+1.5) vs. CAROLINA
- 9-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+1825 ODDS):
- BALTIMORE (+0.5) vs. PHILADELPHIA
- PITTSBURGH (+3) at CINCINNATI
- GREEN BAY (-0.5) at CHICAGO
- DALLAS (-1) vs. TAMPA BAY
- BUFFALO (-4) vs. CLEVELAND
- HOUSTON (EVEN) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- KANSAS CITY (+0.5) vs. TENNESSEE
- (Monday) WASHINGTON (+1.5) vs. CAROLINA
- MINNESOTA (+2) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
- 10-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+2600 ODDS):
- BALTIMORE (+0.5) vs. PHILADELPHIA
- PITTSBURGH (+3) at CINCINNATI
- GREEN BAY (-0.5) at CHICAGO
- DALLAS (-1) vs. TAMPA BAY
- BUFFALO (-4) vs. CLEVELAND
- HOUSTON (EVEN) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- KANSAS CITY (+0.5) vs. TENNESSEE
- (Monday) WASHINGTON (+1.5) vs. CAROLINA
- MINNESOTA (+2) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
- ARIZONA (+3.5) vs. NEW ORLEANS
- 11-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+3700 ODDS):
- BALTIMORE (+0.5) vs. PHILADELPHIA
- PITTSBURGH (+3) at CINCINNATI
- GREEN BAY (-0.5) at CHICAGO
- DALLAS (-1) vs. TAMPA BAY
- BUFFALO (-4) vs. CLEVELAND
- HOUSTON (EVEN) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- KANSAS CITY (+0.5) vs. TENNESSEE
- (Monday) WASHINGTON (+1.5) vs. CAROLINA
- MINNESOTA (+2) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
- ARIZONA (+3.5) vs. NEW ORLEANS
- ATLANTA (-7.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
- 12-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+5200 ODDS):
- BALTIMORE (+0.5) vs. PHILADELPHIA
- PITTSBURGH (+3) at CINCINNATI
- GREEN BAY (-0.5) at CHICAGO
- DALLAS (-1) vs. TAMPA BAY
- BUFFALO (-4) vs. CLEVELAND
- HOUSTON (EVEN) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- KANSAS CITY (+0.5) vs. TENNESSEE
- (Monday) WASHINGTON (+1.5) vs. CAROLINA
- MINNESOTA (+2) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
- ARIZONA (+3.5) vs. NEW ORLEANS
- ATLANTA (-7.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
- SAN DIEGO (+9) vs. OAKLAND
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- BUFFALO (-10) vs. CLEVELAND
- MINNESOTA (-4) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+410 ODDS):
- BALTIMORE (+0.5) vs. PHILADELPHIA
- PITTSBURGH (+3) at CINCINNATI
- GREEN BAY (-0.5) at CHICAGO
- DALLAS (-1) vs. TAMPA BAY
- BUFFALO (-4) vs. CLEVELAND
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+265 ODDS):
- BALTIMORE (+0.5) vs. PHILADELPHIA
- PITTSBURGH (+3) at CINCINNATI
- GREEN BAY (-0.5) at CHICAGO
- DALLAS (-1) vs. TAMPA BAY
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+165 ODDS):
- PITTSBURGH (+3) at CINCINNATI
- GREEN BAY (-0.5) at CHICAGO
- DALLAS (-1) vs. TAMPA BAY
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+165 ODDS):
- BALTIMORE (+0.5) vs. PHILADELPHIA
- GREEN BAY (-0.5) at CHICAGO
- DALLAS (-1) vs. TAMPA BAY
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+165 ODDS):
- BALTIMORE (+0.5) vs. PHILADELPHIA
- PITTSBURGH (+3) at CINCINNATI
- DALLAS (-1) vs. TAMPA BAY
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+165 ODDS):
- BALTIMORE (+0.5) vs. PHILADELPHIA
- PITTSBURGH (+3) at CINCINNATI
- GREEN BAY (-0.5) at CHICAGO
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Green Bay, Buffalo, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Houston, Arizona, San Diego, Washington
RESULTS
Last Week
- OVERALL: 8-7-1 (53.3%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 7.3-13 (36.0%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 3-4 (42.9%)
Season
- OVERALL: 103-101-4 (50.5%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 145.1-174-1 (45.5%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 57-52 (52.3%)
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.
