Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (23) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from last week:
Road Team: | MIN | WAS | PIT | JAC | SD | NYG | ARI | TEN | LAR | SF | CIN | SEA | NE | CAR | KC | GB | |||
Home Team: | DET | DAL | IND | BUF | HOU | CLE | ATL | CHI | NO | MIA | BAL | TB | NYJ | OAK | DEN | PHI | |||
Favorite: | DET | DAL | PIT | BUF | HOU | NYG | ATL | TEN | NO | MIA | BAL | SEA | NE | OAK | DEN | PHI | |||
Point Spread: | -2.5 | -6.5 | -3.5 | -7.5 | -0.5 | -6.5 | -4.5 | -3.5 | -6.5 | -7.5 | -4.5 | -5.5 | -7.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 | |||
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | LW | YtD | |||||||||||||||
Aaron Rudnicki | DET | DAL | PIT | JAC | HOU | NYG | ATL | TEN | NO | SF | BAL | SEA | NE | CAR | KC | GB | 42 | 12 | 89 |
Justin Bonnema | DET | WAS | PIT | JAC | SD | NYG | ATL | TEN | NO | SF | BAL | SEA | NE | OAK | DEN | GB | 49 | 12 | 87 |
Justin Howe | DET | DAL | PIT | JAC | HOU | NYG | ARI | TEN | NO | SF | BAL | TB | NYJ | CAR | KC | PHI | 48 | 12 | 100 |
Danny Tuccitto | DET | DAL | PIT | JAC | HOU | NYG | ARI | TEN | NO | SF | BAL | SEA | NE | CAR | KC | GB | 49 | 11 | 96 |
Devin Knotts | MIN | WAS | PIT | JAC | SD | NYG | ATL | TEN | NO | SF | CIN | SEA | NE | OAK | KC | GB | 46 | 11 | 90 |
Jason Wood | DET | WAS | PIT | JAC | SD | NYG | ATL | TEN | NO | MIA | CIN | SEA | NE | CAR | KC | PHI | 44 | 11 | 96 |
Matt Bitonti | DET | DAL | PIT | JAC | SD | NYG | ATL | TEN | NO | SF | BAL | SEA | NYJ | OAK | DEN | PHI | 54 | 11 | 88 |
Bear Heiser | MIN | WAS | PIT | BUF | SD | NYG | ATL | TEN | NO | SF | CIN | SEA | NE | OAK | KC | GB | 42 | 10 | 88 |
James Brimacombe | DET | WAS | PIT | JAC | SD | CLE | ARI | TEN | NO | SF | CIN | SEA | NE | CAR | DEN | GB | 50 | 10 | 96 |
Phil Alexander | DET | DAL | PIT | BUF | SD | CLE | ATL | TEN | LAR | SF | BAL | SEA | NYJ | OAK | KC | GB | 50 | 10 | 96 |
Andrew Garda | MIN | WAS | PIT | BUF | HOU | NYG | ATL | TEN | NO | SF | BAL | TB | NE | OAK | DEN | PHI | 45 | 9 | 87 |
Chris Kuczynski | DET | DAL | PIT | BUF | SD | NYG | ATL | TEN | NO | SF | BAL | SEA | NE | OAK | DEN | PHI | 42 | 9 | 87 |
John Mamula | MIN | DAL | IND | JAC | SD | NYG | ATL | TEN | NO | MIA | BAL | TB | NE | OAK | KC | PHI | 54 | 9 | 85 |
Chris Feery | DET | DAL | PIT | BUF | SD | NYG | ATL | TEN | NO | MIA | BAL | SEA | NE | OAK | DEN | PHI | 45 | 8 | 84 |
Dave Larkin | MIN | DAL | PIT | JAC | SD | NYG | ARI | TEN | NO | MIA | CIN | SEA | NE | CAR | DEN | GB | 48 | 8 | 85 |
Keith Roberts | MIN | DAL | PIT | BUF | SD | NYG | ATL | TEN | NO | MIA | CIN | TB | NYJ | OAK | DEN | PHI | 48 | 8 | 87 |
William Grant | DET | WAS | PIT | BUF | HOU | NYG | ARI | TEN | NO | SF | BAL | SEA | NE | OAK | DEN | PHI | 44 | 8 | 80 |
Jeff Pasquino | MIN | DAL | PIT | BUF | SD | NYG | ATL | TEN | NO | MIA | BAL | SEA | NE | OAK | DEN | PHI | 53 | 7 | 86 |
Alessandro Miglio | DET | WAS | IND | JAC | HOU | CLE | ATL | TEN | LAR | SF | BAL | SEA | NE | OAK | DEN | PHI | 50 | 7 | 80 |
Andy Hicks | DET | DAL | IND | BUF | HOU | NYG | ATL | TEN | NO | MIA | BAL | TB | NE | OAK | DEN | PHI | 55 | 7 | 88 |
Clayton Gray | DET | DAL | PIT | BUF | HOU | NYG | ATL | TEN | LAR | SF | BAL | SEA | NE | OAK | DEN | PHI | 51 | 7 | 87 |
Mark Wimer | MIN | DAL | PIT | BUF | HOU | NYG | ARI | TEN | NO | MIA | BAL | SEA | NE | OAK | KC | PHI | 48 | 6 | 83 |
Jeff Haseley | DET | DAL | IND | BUF | HOU | NYG | ARI | CHI | NO | MIA | BAL | SEA | NE | OAK | DEN | PHI | 47 | 4 | 73 |
This week was a stellar one for the staff, highlighted by three staffers posting a 12-4 record on the week. Aaron Rudnicki, Justin Bonnema and Justin Howe all posted 12 victories on a full slate of games, which is even more remarkable given the short Thanksgiving week to make selections. Aaron won the tiebreaker and the week with his Monday Night Football total points of 42, just two away from the actual total of 40 points for Green Bay and Philadelphia. Well done! The staff had arguably their best week of the season, which is once again remarkable considering the timing of pick submissions. Ten staff members had 10 or more correct for the week, and seven more had either eight or nine correct. Overall the group had a fantastic showing, posting a 207-161 record as a group (56.3%) and bringing the overall season average ever so close to .500 on the year (2,018-2,053, 49.6%). One more week like this and the entire staff will be above 50%. With five weeks to go and two strong weeks in a row, the staff is poised to make a strong finish.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week:
Road Team: | DAL | KC | HOU | SF | DET | MIA | LAR | DEN | PHI | BUF | NYG | WAS | TB | CAR | IND | |
Home Team: | MIN | ATL | GB | CHI | NO | BAL | NE | JAC | CIN | OAK | PIT | ARI | SD | SEA | NYJ | |
Favorite: | DAL | ATL | GB | CHI | NO | BAL | NE | DEN | PHI | OAK | PIT | ARI | SD | SEA | IND | |
Point Spread: | -3.5 | -3.5 | -4.5 | -2.5 | -4.5 | -3.5 | -13.5 | -4.5 | -2.5 | -3.5 | -5.5 | -2.5 | -4.5 | -6.5 | -1.5 | |
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | ||||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | DAL | KC | GB | SF | NO | BAL | NE | DEN | PHI | OAK | NYG | ARI | TB | SEA | IND | 51 |
Aaron Rudnicki | DAL | ATL | GB | SF | DET | MIA | NE | DEN | PHI | BUF | NYG | ARI | TB | SEA | IND | 42 |
Alessandro Miglio | DAL | ATL | GB | CHI | DET | MIA | LAR | DEN | CIN | OAK | NYG | ARI | SD | CAR | IND | 49 |
Andrew Garda | DAL | ATL | GB | CHI | NO | BAL | NE | DEN | CIN | OAK | PIT | WAS | SD | SEA | NYJ | 40 |
Andy Hicks | DAL | KC | GB | CHI | DET | MIA | LAR | DEN | CIN | BUF | NYG | WAS | TB | SEA | NYJ | 44 |
Bear Heiser | DAL | KC | GB | SF | DET | MIA | NE | DEN | PHI | BUF | PIT | WAS | TB | SEA | IND | 42 |
Chris Feery | DAL | ATL | GB | CHI | NO | MIA | NE | DEN | CIN | OAK | NYG | WAS | SD | CAR | NYJ | 45 |
Chris Kuczynski | DAL | ATL | GB | CHI | DET | MIA | LAR | DEN | PHI | OAK | NYG | WAS | TB | SEA | IND | 52 |
Clayton Gray | DAL | ATL | GB | SF | NO | BAL | NE | DEN | CIN | OAK | PIT | WAS | TB | SEA | NYJ | 45 |
Danny Tuccitto | MIN | KC | HOU | CHI | DET | MIA | NE | JAC | PHI | BUF | PIT | ARI | TB | SEA | IND | 49 |
Dave Larkin | DAL | KC | GB | SF | NO | MIA | LAR | DEN | CIN | OAK | NYG | ARI | TB | SEA | IND | 41 |
Devin Knotts | DAL | ATL | GB | CHI | DET | MIA | NE | DEN | PHI | OAK | NYG | ARI | SD | SEA | IND | 44 |
James Brimacombe | MIN | ATL | GB | SF | NO | BAL | NE | DEN | CIN | BUF | NYG | ARI | SD | CAR | IND | 47 |
Jason Wood | DAL | ATL | GB | SF | NO | MIA | LAR | DEN | PHI | OAK | NYG | WAS | SD | SEA | IND | 53 |
Jeff Haseley | MIN | KC | GB | CHI | DET | MIA | NE | DEN | CIN | BUF | NYG | ARI | TB | SEA | NYJ | 46 |
John Mamula | MIN | ATL | GB | CHI | NO | BAL | NE | DEN | PHI | OAK | NYG | ARI | SD | CAR | IND | 42 |
Justin Bonnema | DAL | ATL | GB | SF | NO | MIA | NE | DEN | CIN | OAK | NYG | ARI | SD | SEA | IND | 48 |
Keith Roberts | MIN | ATL | GB | CHI | NO | MIA | NE | JAC | PHI | BUF | PIT | ARI | TB | SEA | NYJ | 48 |
Mark Wimer | DAL | ATL | GB | CHI | NO | BAL | NE | DEN | PHI | OAK | PIT | WAS | TB | SEA | IND | 59 |
Matt Bitonti | MIN | KC | GB | SF | DET | BAL | NE | DEN | CIN | OAK | NYG | WAS | SD | SEA | IND | 48 |
Phil Alexander | DAL | ATL | GB | SF | NO | BAL | NE | JAC | CIN | BUF | PIT | ARI | SD | SEA | IND | 24 |
William Grant | DAL | ATL | GB | SF | NO | MIA | NE | DEN | PHI | OAK | PIT | WAS | SD | SEA | IND | 46 |
Justin Howe | DAL | ATL | GB | SF | NO | MIA | LAR | DEN | CIN | OAK | NYG | WAS | TB | CAR | NYJ | 49 |
CONSENSUS WINNERS
As we near the three-quarters mark on the regular season, you would think that this would be getting easier. The staff should know which teams are good and which are bad, but Las Vegas and their point spreads are the great equalizer. One pick this week was dominant for the staff, as 21 of 22 (one set of picks not in yet) chose the Packers as a -4.5 favorite at home over Houston. Currently the line has moved all the way up to -6.5, so Green Bay gets the added boost for selections this week. Denver (19), Seattle (18) and New England (17) are the next most popular choices, with the Broncos representing one of five majority road team picks this week. Two more road teams come in next with 16 of 22 picks for both Dallas (at Minnesota on Thursday) and Indianapolis (at the Jets on Monday). Atlanta was chosen 15 times to cover the field goal and then some at home against the Chiefs in Week 13. Three teams round out the clear majority selections with 14 choices for Oakland at home against Buffalo and our two final road team picks in the Giants (at Pittsburgh) and Miami (at Baltimore). New Orleans (13) and Arizona (12) were slightly favored by the group, but three games were split right down the middle - San Francisco at Chicago, Philadelphia at Cincinnati and San Diego hosting Tampa Bay. Week 13 looks to be yet another interesting week, so let's see how it all plays out.
ODDS AND ENDS
We are getting close to the midpoint of the season, and the picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder that it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.