Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
Finally, a week that had some respectability across the board. A winning week in all categories, from overall picks, Picks of the Week, and most of all the star picks, which hit at an amazing 41.65-7-1 clip (85.6%). Had Seattle won it would have been a HUGE week, but such is the way of picks. We stick to our process and keep plugging away. Speaking of which, this is the final week where we have byes, so let’s get starting on Week 13. Here we go:
Bye week teams: Cleveland, Tennessee
Teams returning from a bye: None
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
(Thursday) DALLAS (-3.5) at MINNESOTA
Interesting how the schedule maker gave both teams a full week of prep time for the Thursday Night Football game this week, as both teams were in action on Thanksgiving. Dallas is on a roll with 10 straight wins and it seems that it is just a matter of time for that offense to figure out the best way to move the ball on an opponent and finally secure a victory each week. Minnesota is a “dink and dunk” offense that is stuck in neutral, and that will not cut it against the Cowboys. The most compelling part of this matchup will be the offensive line for Dallas against the Vikings’ front seven, and I think that the Cowboys win that battle, and this game by at least a touchdown. PICK: Cowboys
KANSAS CITY (+4) at ATLANTA
This is a tough one to pick. On the one hand, Atlanta cannot seem to stop anyone on defense this year, but the Falcons held Arizona to just 19 points last week. Which is reality? Kansas City is not exactly a juggernaut on offense either, yet they scored 30 points in Denver on Sunday Night Football. It is all so confusing, but digging deeper I see that the Chiefs had Tyreek Hill go crazy against the Broncos, accounting for all three touchdowns. I see speed versus speed here with Hill and Taylor Gabriel both getting chances to burn the other side, but I also am looking at two favorable matchups for Kansas City. First, Spencer Ware gets to face the Atlanta defense that did give up over four yards a carry to David Johnson last week and over 100 yards receiving and a score. Atlanta’s run defense has not been solid all year, nor have they defended tight ends well this season. Jermaine Gresham had a 5-35-1 day last week, and Travis Kelce is far, far better. I predict a very high scoring game here but Ware and Kelce will have big days, while the Chiefs focus on slowing down Julio Jones. Gabriel and Hill could each score, but I like the Chiefs’ favorable matchups on offense to not just cover but possibly steal this one on the road. Chiefs 30, Falcons 27. PICK: Chiefs
NEW ORLEANS (-5.5) vs. DETROIT
Drew Brees at home against Matthew Stafford – that just sounds like a lot of points just waiting to happen. The problem I see is that Detroit actually has not been putting up a lot of points, with just one game topping 24 since Week 7 – and the Saints have only yielded more than 24 once since Week 8. New Orleans has improved on defense since the early part of the year, while Detroit is struggling to collect touchdowns. I understand that the Lions had three extra days to rest and prepare for this game, but New Orleans just scored 49 points last week against an above average Rams defense. I can see this one as a high scoring contest, but most of those points are going for the home team. Saints 34, Lions 23. PICK: Saints
NEW ENGLAND (-13) vs. LOS ANGELES
This is really not much of a question as to who wins this contest, but if the Patriots can win by two touchdowns or more. The New England defense has not been as opportunistic as in years past, averaging just two sacks and one turnover through 11 games this season. Both those numbers could go up appreciably against a rookie quarterback, as Jared Goff gets just his third NFL start on Sunday. I am looking for New England to kick into another gear for December as Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the entire defense use this home game to advance to a 10-2 record and push for the top overall spot once again in the AFC. New England wins and covers in compelling fashion, 34-3. PICK: Patriots
DENVER (-4.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE
Denver has a dominant defense and a mediocre offense, which is usually enough to take care of a lesser opponent like Jacksonville. The Jaguars were supposed to be getting better, but a 2-9 record and six straight losses have added to the overall disappointment for the franchise. Meanwhile the Broncos have to get back on the winning track after a tough home loss in overtime to the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. A 7-4 record is respectable, but every possible win matters now for Denver, and they simply have to have this game to stay in the playoff race. Denver gets it done with conservative offense and strong defensive plays that force turnovers and create short fields. PICK: Broncos
GREEN BAY (-6) vs. HOUSTON
Aaron Rodgers at home against Brock Osweiler. I could really stop there, but let’s continue. Green Bay just picked up a big road win in Philadelphia on Monday Night Football, and the Packers are now at 5-6 and need every win they can find on their schedule. With Seattle coming to Lambeau Field next week and then three divisional games, Green Bay has to find a way to run the table to get to 10-6. The Packers are susceptible on defense to good passing teams, but did I mention who the quarterback was for Houston? Even if Will Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins have big games, Aaron Rodgers can erase those mistakes and outscore anyone. Houston may not have given up a 300-yard passer this season yet, but that streak ends Sunday. Green Bay by double digits at home as the Texans drop to 6-6, which is the record I would expect for this average team. PICK: Packers
PHILADELPHIA (-1) at CINCINNATI
Two teams get together in southern Ohio that are both heading south in the standings. The Bengals are a mess after losing A.J. Green and Gio Bernard for the season, and the loss last week to Baltimore was downright ugly. While the Eagles have just one win on the road this season, there are three reasons that I like their chances this week. The first two surround the tight end position, as Cincinnati is one of the worst teams against tight ends, and the Eagles have three viable options at the position (Zach Ertz, Brent Celek and Trey Burton) to catch passes over the middle. Secondly, Cincinnati had to rely on Tyler Eifert last week against the Ravens as their primary target, but Philadelphia is one of the best defenses against tight ends. The third reason that tipped the scales towards the Eagles was the Bengals’ run defense. Cincinnati is giving up 4.4 yards per carry and over 120 yards per game on the ground. Throw in that Caleb Sturgis has been a strong kicker for Philadelphia and Mike Nugent has missed nine kicks (including four extra points) and you can see why I am leaning towards the road team in this one. I look for the Eagles to run the ball and work short passes to the tight ends to grind out a low scoring win on the road, something like 23-20. PICK: Eagles
SAN FRANCISCO (+2) at CHICAGO
Before you hold your nose and just pick one of these two teams, take a closer look. Would you be surprised to know that this is the only game that features two quarterbacks that had 290+ yards passing last week? Matt Barkley had 316 yards against Tennessee and nearly won at home, while Colin Kaepernick continues to put up strong numbers since his return as the starter for San Francisco. Kaepernick also had 110 yards rushing last week, which is not good news for a Chicago defense that is struggling just to get 11 players to put on the field. Similar things could be said for the Chicago passing game, with Alshon Jeffery suspended and TE Zach Miller also out of commission. Jordan Howard and Barkley will produce offense in this contest, but so will the 49ers with Kaepernick and Carlos Hyde. This game could easily be the biggest scoring contest of the week (if the weather cooperates) and I am going to take the points, and the better quarterback, in what I see as a coin flip game. PICK: 49ers
BALTIMORE (-3) vs. MIAMI
Miami just took care of business at home against San Francisco, but the 49ers’ defense is one of the worst – if not the worst – in the league. Now the Dolphins have to visit Baltimore, who is known for their defense. The Ravens have been shutting down run games this year, and this matchup has all the makings of a low-scoring defensive struggle. The X-factor here in this one is Mike Wallace, who has had this game circled on his calendar all year. He tweeted out a simple message on Sunday after Baltimore’s win – “7 Days!” – which is his countdown to facing off against the organization that gave up on him. The last time one of Joe Flacco’s receivers had revenge on his mind, Steve Smith exploded on Carolina for a 7-139-2 day against his former team. Wallace certainly has that upside, and I think he will help propel his new team towards the home victory in this matchup. PICK: Ravens
OAKLAND (-3) vs. BUFFALO
Let me just say that I don’t like this game at all. Both teams are strong and can get the win, which means I should be taking the points, but I can certainly see a clearer path for Oakland to get the win here. If this game is a shootout, Oakland stands to get the win, but if LeSean McCoy takes over, Buffalo will certainly be right there for an upset on the road. Tyrod Taylor has Sammie Watkins back in action, but I do not think one target in the passing game is enough for the Bills. Oakland needs to extend their divisional lead with three road games in their final four on the schedule, while Buffalo has a much easier path the rest of the year. Give me the home team and the better offense in a contest that really can go in either direction. PICK: Raiders
NEW YORK GIANTS (+6) at PITTSBURGH
The Giants are playing good football of late, and their defense has really stepped up in the past month or so. This is why I am not sure why the Steelers are favored by such a wide margin. Both teams have gaps on defense, as neither squad stops pass-catching running backs particularly well. This certainly favors LeVeon Bell, but Rashad Jennings can produce in this role. Both teams have stud WR1s in Odell Beckham and Antonio Brown. The Giants have not given up more than one passing touchdown to an opposing quarterback since Week 5 (Aaron Rodgers), but the caliber of opposing quarterbacks has not been stellar. I see this game as a moderate shootout, with a likely score in the 30-27 range, so I am taking the Giants and the points. PICK: Giants
ARIZONA (-2.5) vs. WASHINGTON
Arizona’s strength is defense and a guy named David Johnson. Washington’s weakness is against running backs. If the Cardinals can contain Kirk Cousins – who may not have Jordan Reed – then Arizona should easily get a home victory here over Washington. PICK: Cardinals
TAMPA BAY (+4) at SAN DIEGO
This is another game that is really hard to read. Tampa Bay just made Seattle look horrible last week, and that comes seven days after a win in Kansas City. Is this really the same defense that gave up 513 yards to Derek Carr in Week 8 and 344 more to Matt Ryan in Week 9? The Chargers are a mixed bag on defense as well, giving up less than four yards a carry but also yielding 15 touchdowns on the ground, second worst only to Washington’s 16 touchdowns against. Doug Martin should have a solid game, and there are plenty of reasons to doubt the Chargers for success this week. Melvin Gordon really did not get going last Sunday, and San Diego may be down another wide receiver with Tyrell Williams having a shoulder concern. The Chargers are 3-2 at home but the Buccaneers are 4-1 on the road and riding a three game winning streak. Give me the hotter team and the points in a game I would normally avoid. PICK: Buccaneers
SEATTLE (-6.5) vs. CAROLINA
Seattle fell flat on their faces in Tampa Bay last week, so this screams out as a “get right game” for Russell Wilson. Carolina made a big mistake in letting Josh Norman go this summer, and their defense continues to pay for it every week. Derek Carr was the most recent beneficiary of this matchup, racking up 315 yards and two touchdowns last week against the Panthers. Carr is one of four quarterbacks (Carson Palmer, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan) to get over 300 yards passing against Carolina, and three of those four (Ryan, Brees, Palmer) had three or more touchdown passes. I think Russell Wilson joins both lists this week with Cam Newton unable to keep pace. Seattle 30, Carolina 20. PICK: Seahawks
(Monday) INDIANAPOLIS (-1) at NEW YORK JETS
Andrew Luck returns to action to close out Week 13. The Jets have not looked good, but neither have the Colts on defense. Ryan Fitzpatrick will find a way to make a mistake or two here and Luck will capitalize on it, winning a probably high scoring game, 34-27. PICK: Colts
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- GREEN BAY (-6) vs. HOUSTON
- BALTIMORE vs. MIAMI (OVER 40.5)
- TAMPA BAY (+4) at SAN DIEGO (OVER 47)
- KANSAS CITY “FOR THE WIN” (+180) at ATLANTA
- DETROIT “FOR THE WIN” (+230) at NEW ORLEANS (GOOD ODDS)
- NEW YORK GIANTS “FOR THE WIN” (+235) at PITTSBURGH
- TAMPA BAY “FOR THE WIN” (+170) at SAN DIEGO
- 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER: NEW ORLEANS (+0.5) vs. DETROIT (OVER 47)
- 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER: TAMPA BAY (+10) at SAN DIEGO (OVER 41)
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+165 ODDS):
- DENVER (+1.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- GREEN BAY (EVEN) vs. HOUSTON
- SEATTLE (-0.5) vs. CAROLINA
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+165 ODDS):
- DENVER (+1.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- GREEN BAY (EVEN) vs. HOUSTON
- TAMPA BAY at SAN DIEGO (OVER 41)
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+165 ODDS):
- DENVER (+1.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- GREEN BAY (EVEN) vs. HOUSTON
- NEW ORLEANS (+0.5) vs. DETROIT
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+165 ODDS):
- DENVER (+1.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- GREEN BAY (EVEN) vs. HOUSTON
- TAMPA BAY (+10) at SAN DIEGO
- 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+610 ODDS):
- DENVER (+1.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- GREEN BAY (EVEN) vs. HOUSTON
- SEATTLE (-0.5) vs. CAROLINA
- TAMPA BAY at SAN DIEGO (OVER 41)
- NEW ORLEANS (+0.5) vs. DETROIT
- TAMPA BAY (+10) at SAN DIEGO
- 7-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+890 ODDS):
- DENVER (+1.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- GREEN BAY (EVEN) vs. HOUSTON
- SEATTLE (-0.5) vs. CAROLINA
- TAMPA BAY at SAN DIEGO (OVER 41)
- NEW ORLEANS (+0.5) vs. DETROIT
- TAMPA BAY (+10) at SAN DIEGO
- NEW ORLEANS vs. DETROIT (OVER 47)
- 8-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+1275 ODDS):
- DENVER (+1.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- GREEN BAY (EVEN) vs. HOUSTON
- SEATTLE (-0.5) vs. CAROLINA
- TAMPA BAY at SAN DIEGO (OVER 41)
- NEW ORLEANS (+0.5) vs. DETROIT
- TAMPA BAY (+10) at SAN DIEGO
- NEW ORLEANS vs. DETROIT (OVER 47)
- SAN FRANCISCO at CHICAGO (OVER 37)
- 9-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+1825 ODDS):
- DENVER (+1.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- GREEN BAY (EVEN) vs. HOUSTON
- SEATTLE (-0.5) vs. CAROLINA
- TAMPA BAY at SAN DIEGO (OVER 41)
- NEW ORLEANS (+0.5) vs. DETROIT
- TAMPA BAY (+10) at SAN DIEGO
- NEW ORLEANS vs. DETROIT (OVER 47)
- SAN FRANCISCO at CHICAGO (OVER 37)
- BALTIMORE vs. MIAMI (OVER 34.5)
- 10-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+2600 ODDS):
- DENVER (+1.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- GREEN BAY (EVEN) vs. HOUSTON
- SEATTLE (-0.5) vs. CAROLINA
- TAMPA BAY at SAN DIEGO (OVER 41)
- NEW ORLEANS (+0.5) vs. DETROIT
- TAMPA BAY (+10) at SAN DIEGO
- NEW ORLEANS vs. DETROIT (OVER 47)
- SAN FRANCISCO at CHICAGO (OVER 37)
- BALTIMORE vs. MIAMI (OVER 34.5)
- ARIZONA (+3.5) vs. WASHINGTON
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- DENVER (-4.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- SAN FRANCISCO at CHICAGO (OVER 43)
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- None this week.
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: New Orleans, Denver, Green Bay, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Arizona, Tampa Bay, Seattle
RESULTS
Last Week
- OVERALL: 8-7-1 (53.3%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 41.65-7-1 (85.6%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 6-5 (54.5%)
Season
- OVERALL: 85-89-3 (48.9%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 122.05-151-1 (44.7%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 49-45 (52.1%)
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.