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Against The Spread Pool: Week 15

Jeff Pasquino's Against The Spread Pool: Week 15
By Jeff Pasquino, December 11, 2014

Against The Spread Pool: Week 15
Photo: Imagn Images

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread.  Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (19) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line.  As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.  

Note that the links above are for 2013 articles.  Please see the Week 15 2014 Page at Footballguys.com for the 2014 Week 15 updates.

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Here are the results from last week:

Road Team: DAL NYG STL PIT INDY CAR HOU TB NYJ BAL BUF KC SEA SF NE ATL      
Home Team: CHI TEN WASH CIN CLE NO JAX DET MIN MIA DEN AZ PHI OAK SD GB      
Favorite: CHI TEN STL CIN INDY NO HOU DET MIN MIA DEN AZ PHI SF NE GB      
Point Spread: -3.5 -0.5 -2.5 -3.5 -3.5 -9.5 -4.5 -9.5 -5.5 -3.5 -10.5 -1.5 -1.5 -7.5 -3.5 -11.5      
Staffer The Picks MNF LW Year
Aaron Rudnicki CHI NYG STL PIT INDY CAR JAX TB MIN BAL BUF KC SEA OAK NE GB 48 10 106
Matt Bitonti DAL NYG STL PIT INDY CAR JAX DET MIN BAL BUF KC PHI SF NE GB 63 10 107
Alessandro Miglio CHI TEN STL CIN INDY NO HOU TB MIN BAL BUF AZ PHI OAK NE ATL 55 9 105
Andrew Garda DAL NYG STL CIN INDY NO HOU DET MIN BAL DEN KC SEA SF NE GB 60 9 91
Jason Wood CHI NYG STL PIT INDY NO HOU TB MIN BAL BUF KC PHI SF NE ATL 59 9 103
Steve Holloway DAL NYG STL CIN INDY CAR HOU TB NYJ BAL BUF KC SEA SF NE GB 60 9 101
Jeff Pasquino DAL NYG STL PIT INDY NO HOU DET MIN BAL DEN KC PHI SF SD GB 58 8 102
Bear Heiser CHI NYG STL PIT INDY NO HOU TB NYJ BAL DEN KC SEA OAK SD ATL 48 8 94
Clayton Gray CHI NYG WASH CIN INDY NO HOU DET MIN BAL BUF KC PHI OAK NE GB 56 8 103
Dave Larkin CHI NYG STL PIT INDY NO HOU TB NYJ BAL BUF AZ PHI SF NE GB 53 8 107
Justin Bonnema DAL NYG WASH PIT INDY NO JAX TB MIN MIA DEN KC SEA OAK NE ATL 58 8 105
Mark Wimer DAL NYG STL PIT INDY NO HOU DET MIN MIA DEN KC PHI SF NE GB 56 8 99
Andy Hicks DAL TEN STL CIN INDY CAR HOU TB MIN MIA DEN KC SEA SF NE GB 58 7 94
Dan Hindery CHI NYG STL PIT CLE NO JAX TB MIN MIA DEN KC PHI SF NE ATL 52 7 112
Danny Tuccitto CHI TEN WASH PIT CLE CAR JAX DET MIN MIA BUF KC PHI OAK SD GB 49 7 97
James Brimacombe CHI NYG STL PIT INDY CAR JAX DET NYJ BAL DEN KC PHI SF SD ATL 62 7 99
Jeff Haseley CHI NYG WASH CIN INDY NO HOU DET NYJ BAL BUF KC PHI OAK SD ATL 55 7 102
John Lee DAL NYG WASH PIT CLE NO JAX DET NYJ MIA DEN KC SEA OAK SD GB 54 7 104
Maurile Tremblay CHI TEN WASH CIN CLE CAR JAX TB NYJ BAL BUF KC SEA OAK SD ATL 52 7 93
Phil Alexander CHI NYG WASH PIT INDY NO JAX DET MIN MIA DEN AZ SEA SF NE GB 52 7 115
Will Grant CHI TEN STL CIN INDY NO HOU DET NYJ MIA DEN AZ PHI SF NE GB 58 5 103

Matt Bitonti and Aaron Rudnicki finished tied for first for the week with 10 correct picks, but Matt wins the total points tiebreaker (Matt had 63, still well below the 80 point explosion by Green Bay and Atlanta, but much more than Aaron's 48).  Four staff members followed closely with nine correct picks and nearly everyone had at least 7 or 8 correct picks in a tricky week with several upsets.  Overall it was a decent week with the staff nearly at 50% (165-171),  Overall the group is hovering near 50% (2122-2226, 49.0%) with Phil Alexander (115), Dan Hindery (112) and Dave Larkin (107) and Matt Bitonti (107) the Top 4 in the group so far on the season. 

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week:

Road Team: AZ OAK MIA PIT HOU WASH CIN JAX TB GB NYJ DEN SF MIN DAL NO  
Home Team: STL KC NE ATL INDY NYG CLE BAL CAR BUF TEN SD SEA DET PHI CHI  
Favorite: STL KC NE PIT INDY NYG CIN BAL CAR GB NYJ DEN SEA DET PHI NO  
Point Spread: -3.5 -10.5 -7.5 -1.5 -6.5 -6.5 -1.5 -13.5 -5.5 -6.5 -1.5 -4.5 -9.5 -7.5 -3.5 -3.5  
Staffer The Picks MNF
Jeff Pasquino STL OAK NE PIT INDY NYG CLE BAL CAR GB NYJ DEN SEA DET PHI NO 51
Aaron Rudnicki STL OAK MIA PIT INDY NYG CIN JAX TB GB NYJ DEN SEA MIN PHI CHI 52
Alessandro Miglio STL OAK MIA PIT INDY NYG CIN JAX TB GB TEN DEN SF DET PHI NO 53
Andrew Garda AZ OAK NE PIT INDY NYG CLE JAX TB GB NYJ DEN SEA DET PHI NO 60
Andy Hicks STL KC NE ATL INDY NYG CIN BAL CAR GB NYJ SD SEA MIN DAL CHI 58
Bear Heiser AZ KC NE ATL INDY NYG CLE JAX TB GB NYJ DEN SEA MIN PHI CHI 52
Clayton Gray STL KC NE PIT INDY NYG CLE BAL TB BUF TEN SD SEA MIN PHI CHI 56
Dan Hindery STL OAK MIA PIT INDY NYG CIN JAX TB GB NYJ SD SEA MIN DAL CHI 58
Danny Tuccitto AZ OAK MIA ATL HOU WASH CLE JAX CAR BUF TEN SD SF MIN PHI CHI 49
Dave Larkin STL OAK NE ATL INDY NYG CLE BAL TB GB TEN SD SEA DET PHI CHI 45
James Brimacombe AZ KC MIA PIT INDY NYG CLE JAX CAR GB TEN DEN SF DET DAL CHI 55
Jason Wood STL OAK MIA PIT INDY NYG CIN BAL CAR GB NYJ DEN SEA DET PHI NO 57
Jeff Haseley STL OAK NE PIT INDY NYG CLE BAL CAR GB NYJ SD SEA DET PHI CHI 52
John Lee STL KC MIA ATL INDY WASH CLE BAL TB BUF NYJ SD SEA MIN PHI CHI 50
Justin Bonnema STL OAK NE PIT INDY WASH CLE JAX TB GB NYJ DEN SF DET DAL CHI 58
Mark Wimer STL KC NE PIT INDY NYG CIN JAX CAR GB TEN DEN SEA DET PHI NO 66
Matt Bitonti AZ OAK NE PIT INDY NYG CLE BAL TB BUF NYJ DEN SEA DET DAL CHI 59
Maurile Tremblay AZ OAK MIA PIT HOU WASH CLE JAX TB BUF TEN DEN SF MIN DAL CHI 52
Phil Alexander STL KC MIA PIT INDY WASH CLE BAL TB GB TEN DEN SEA DET DAL NO 57
Steve Holloway STL OAK NE PIT INDY NYG CLE JAX CAR GB TEN SD SEA DET PHI NO 62
Will Grant AZ OAK NE ATL INDY NYG CIN JAX TB GB TEN DEN SEA DET PHI NO 58

CONSENSUS WINNERS

With three quarters of the season behind us, you would think that there would be some sort of better understanding of who are the dominant teams – but you would never know it from looking at the sets of picks this week.    No team was picked unanimously, and the closest were Indianapolis (18 of 21 staff), Seattle (16), Cleveland (15), Green Bay (15) and the New York Giants (15), followed by Pittsburgh (14), Oakland (14) and Chicago (14).  Las Vegas would love these sets of picks on Tennessee and the Jets as the choices were split almost exactly in half for all these contests.  It should be very interesting to see how it plays out.

ODDS AND ENDS

There are just a few weeks left but and the picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.

A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding.  That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder that it might seem.

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.

 

Photos provided by Imagn Images
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