As we descend upon our respective families for the Thanksgiving holiday to give thanks for our blessings, we should also give thanks to the NFL for blessing us with three solid intradivisional football games spread out of the course of the day! Most of the major DFS sites are offering Thanksgiving-only games, including both cash and GPP games, which should satisfy your non-Turkey cravings for the day. Below, you will find a cursory summary of the players with whom you should be looking to fill your Thanksgiving-only DFS rosters; each will have a designation to help you decide whether to roster those players in large-field tournaments or cash games.
An important note: Before visiting a single daily site to put together rosters for Thanksgiving, you should read fellow FBG Jeff Pasquino's succinct take on limited game slates in this week's edition of The Daily Grind. Jeff has done a wonderful job of recapping the risks of too much exposure in limited game slates and any serious DFS gamer should read this short, but valuable, piece prior to playing Thanksgiving Day-only game slates. That said, let's dive in...
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (12:30 PM EST): After a two road game losing streak, the Lions return home to host the Chicago Bears, who are riding their own two game winning streak. The Lions are 4-1 at home and Vegas projects them as a 27-20 victors over the Bears.
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (4:30 PM EST): The battle for sole ownership of the NFC East 1st place will take place in AT&T Stadium in Dallas at 4:30 EST. With the highest-projected total of the day, Vegas predicts a final score of Dallas 29, Philadelphia 26.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (8:30 EST): Another intradivisional clash of titans is the last Thanksgiving Day game, featuring the Seahawks versus the 49ers. The home team 49ers are only 3-2 in San Francisco this year, but oddsmakers are still predicting a 21-19 point victory, in favor of the Niners.
Defense versus Positions (% plus/minus NFL average)
| Defense | vs. QB | vs. RB | vs. WR | vs. TE | vs. DEF |
| Chicago Bears | +19.4% | -13.4% | +5.7% | +50.6% | +25.0% |
| Dallas Cowboys | -2.5% | -0.5% | -15.4% | +45.6% | +9.4% |
| Detroit Lions | -16.4% | -17.7% | -20.7% | +6.3% | -14.1% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +22.4% | +10.8% | +21.1% | -19.0% | +34.4% |
| San Francisco 49ers | -14.9% | -24.2% | -3.5% | -2.5% | +17.2% |
| Seattle Seahawks | -19.4% | -10.2% | -31.8% | +19.0% | -20.3% |
Key:
RED = 20+% less points allowed (compared to NFL average)
ORANGE = 10-19.9% less points allowed (compared to NFL average)
NO COLOR = Close to NFL average (+/- 10%)
BLUE = 10-19.9% more points allowed (compared to NFL average)
GREEN = 20+% more points allowed (compared to NFL average)
RATED THANKSGIVING DFS PLAYS
4-stars: Tony Romo (GPP & Cash games, FD: $8700, DK: $7600): Should have a field day against this Eagles' secondary that has allowed the 2nd most passing touchdowns on the season. Dez Bryant (GPP & Cash games, FD: $8800, DK: $7900): For the same reasons described for Tony Romo, Bryant should see plenty of fantasy opportunities on Turkey Day. LeSean McCoy (GPP & Cash games, FD: $8000, DK: $7400): The Cowboys will have their hands full with McCoy, who is starting to show glimmers of his 2013 self.
3-stars: Mark Sanchez (GPP & Cash games, FD: $7600, DK: $6800): If you cannot slot Romo into your lineup, Sanchez should be next on your list because his salary is reasonable for a game with a 55-point total. DeMarco Murray (GPP & Cash games, FD: $9000, DK: $8400): Dallas will assuredly give Murray the ball 20+ times, which means that he will see at least 100 all-purpose yards and a touchdown as his floor.
2-stars: Matthew Stafford (GPP only, FD: $8300, DK: $7200): Using the chart above, you can see the Bears are giving up nearly 20% more points to opposing QB's than the NFL average, which means that Stafford could come up big in GPP formats. Calvin Johnson (GPP only, FD: $8600, DK: $7000) and Golden Tate (Primarily GPP, FD: $7900, DK: $6800): Both Lions' receivers could be in store for huge games against a secondary that gave up dual 100-yard receiving days to Tampa Bay just a week ago. Jeremy Maclin (GPP & Cash games, FD: $8300, DK: $6800) and Jordan Matthews (GPP & Cash games, FD: $7600, DK: $5700): The Eagles' receivers should be in line for solid days against the Cowboys' secondary...slight edge to Maclin due to target opportunities and matchup against CB Brandon Carr. 49ers' Defense (Primarily cash games, FD: $5300, DK: $3100): The 49ers seem to be the safest play against the Seahawks due to the low Vegas team total for Seattle; this one should be a field goal fest.
1-star: Jay Cutler (GPP only, FD: $8400, DK: $6900): This game does not look good on paper for Cutler, but he will likely be forced to air it out and he has talent around him; he should be low-owned and has high-upside, which makes him GPP-only. Matt Forte (GPP only, FD: $9400, DK: $8700): Normally, Matt Forte slots in higher as a recommended play, but his matchup against this stingy Lions' front seven leaves much to be desired, particularly given Forte's lofty salary. Theo Riddick (GPP only, FD: $5800, DK: $3800): Reggie Bush has been limited all week; if he does not play, Riddick is a solid GPP play, particularly on full PPR sites like DraftKings. Alshon Jeffery (Primarily GPP, FD: $8000, DK: $6300) and Brandon Marshall (GPP only, FD: $8000, DK: $6400): If Cutler is forced to throw early, either of the talented Bears' receivers could become decent DFS plays; slight edge goes to Jeffery because Marshall seems to be playing cautiously since reaggravating his ankle injury a few weeks ago. Terrance Williams (GPP only, FD: $5100, DK: $3900): Williams is the type of overlooked player that wins GPP's on short game slates; if he catches a touchdown in this plus matchup at his minimal salary, he will almost assuredly be on the winner's DFS roster. Brent Celek (GPP & Cash games, FD: $4700, DK: $3300). On a day without Gronk or Jimmy Graham, Brent Celek looks to be the best value tight end; he is trending up in the Eagles' offense (Ertz is losing snaps each week) and is facing a Cowboys' defense that does not defend the position well. Jason Witten (Primarily GPP, FD: $5700, DK: $4500). Historically, Jason Witten has had some huge days against the Eagles, but his involvement in the Dallas offense has taken a dive this year; he becomes mostly a GPP play because his floor is near zero these days. Lions' Defense (GPP and Cash games, FD: $5200, DK: $3400): The Lions are amongst league leaders in most defensive categories and get a matchup against Jay Cutler, who is known for his knack for throwing interceptions; combine that with the fact that Vegas believes the Bears will be limited to ~ 20 points and the Lions are a reasonable defense for this limited slate. Seahawks' Defense (GPP only, FD: $5300, DK: $3300): The Seahawks are a great defense that keeps their team in games, but they are near the bottom of the league in sacks and takeaways, which would appear to otherwise limit their upside; they are included here because Vegas believes they will keep this game low-scoring.
KICKERS
Because predicting field goals is almost impossible, there is no reason to pay up for a kicker in daily games, unless you have extra salary to spend. If you want to be contrarian for a large-field GPP tournament, it sometimes make sense to pay a little more for a kicker, as most daily gamers will choose the cheapest option available on the highest-potential scoring team. With that in mind, here are some considerations for Sunday’s game slate at at several price points (FanDuel only):
Stephen Gostkowski, NE ($5500 versus Green Bay): Highest-scoring game (by far) on the week can only mean that Gostkowski will get a few shakes at a field goal...just be aware of the weather in Lambeau on Sunday morning to ensure that conditions are not terrible.
Mason Crosby, GB ($4900 versus New England): See Stephen Gostkowski (above), switch teams, and save $600.
Chandler Cantanzaro ($4600 versus Atlanta): The rookie kicker has been solid throughout the season, but slowed down a bit over the past few weeks. At near minimum-salary against a poor defense in a dome, Cantanzaro represents a solid punt play for the kicker position this weekend.
TEAM DEFENSES
Colts (versus Redskins): (FD: $5500, DK: $3200). The Colts make a repeat appearance here after scoring 15 fantasy points last week against the Jaguars. This week, they get a prime matchup against Colt McCoy, who was just named the Redskins' starting QB on Wednesday morning; if the Colts build an early lead as Vegas predicts, McCoy should be forced to throw the ball, which is not to his, or the Redskins', advantage. Against the Cowboys in his last start, McCoy threw multiple bad passes and was on the plus side of luck that night...do not expect that luck to continue against the Colts.
Rams (versus Oakland): (FD: $5200, DK: $3200). The 'smart guys' in Las Vegas project the Oakland Raiders as the lowest-scoring team of the week, despite beating the Chiefs last week and having 10-days to prepare for the 4-7 Rams. When Vegas disagrees with logic, there is generally good reason--their algorithms are smarter than our minds...roster the Rams and wait for them to prove us wrong again.
Dolphins (versus NY Jets): (FD: $4900, DK: $3200). The Dolphins are 4th in the league in sacks (31) and face the NY Jets, who have given up the 2nd most sacks in the league this season (36). A week after scoring 3 points against the Buffalo Bills, do not expect a signficant improvement of output against a Dolphins' defense that does everything well. Oddsmakers also agree with this sentiment, as they slate the Jets to score only 18 points at home. At a comparatively low price point, the Dolphins offer a lot of upside, but also allow you to spend your salary dollars elsewhere this weekend.
