There is absolutely no question that the biggest area of growth right now in fantasy football is with the explosion of Daily Fantasy Contests. With several top sites out there already and more entering this space each day, Footballguys is expanding the coverage in this arena to give Footballguys Insiders exclusive coverage of the latest news and information of Daily Fantasy Football.
Over the course of this football season, we will talk about numerous aspects of Daily Fantasy Football. From articles on these sites, strategies to win daily contests, bankroll (money management) strategy, different league and game types, signup and reload bonuses, players to target each week and even contests that look to be undersubscribed ("overlays"), we will cover it all. Welcome to the one-stop shop for Daily coverage.
Please note that even though the NFL has weekly Thursday games and DFS sites have contests that start on Thursdays, in general we will be looking at the majority of the contests and DFS games that do not begin until Sunday. Our weekly coverage does include Thursday DFS information if you are looking to get a jump on the DFS action for the week with the first game on Thursday.
DFS LESSON OF THE WEEK - THANKSGIVING AND LIMITED GAME CONTESTS
It’s a short week here at Footballguys (like everywhere else) due to the long weekend holiday, but I wanted to take a little time out here to share a timely lesson. This week is Thanksgiving, and many sites are offering Thanksgiving only contests. That means that there are contests with the players from only three contests (this year, Chicago at Detroit, Philadelphia at Dallas and Seattle at San Francisco), which sounds like a much easier game to play – but the truth is actually exactly the opposite. These contests have fewer players to choose from, so every player choice is far more critical to the outcome of the contest, and the fewer games increases the odds against you winning.
Let me start by sharing yet another conversation amongst the Footballguys’ staff from a few weeks ago. I was looking at the Monday-Thursday contest on DraftKings where the Eagles-Panthers and Miami-Buffalo contests were the two games from which you could select players. Because of the low cost of nearly every player, there was no possible lineup you could create which would maximize your salary cap. That meant that you could take any players you wanted and not be inhibited at all by the salary cap restriction. That got me to thinking that there could be an advantage here, but a few of the great minds here quickly changed my view. For example, Danny Tuccitto summed up the problem quite nicely with these two short but powerful paragraphs:
Thinking of this question from a game theory perspective...
Assume you are the best in the world at making lineup decisions, and that gives you an edge over the entire field in any DFS game. In that world, your best game would be the one that requires the most lineup decisions because it multiplies your edge the most. Therefore, the games with highly restricted player pools (e.g., Monday-Thursday, Sunday Night Football-Monday Night Football, Sunday Afternoons only, etc.) wouldn't be as profitable as the ones using all (or almost all) of the week's slate (e.g., Thursday-Monday or Sunday-Monday). Don’t get me wrong, the restricted games would still be profitable because you're the best decision maker in the world; they just aren't the best games for you if your goal is to maximize profits -- which it obviously is.
It's pretty much the same principle underlying why people advise novice poker players to highly restrict their pre-flop ranges and play as ABC as possible. Playing premium hands (i.e., choosing from a restricted "card pool") means playing fewer hands, which means having to make fewer (and easier) decisions, all of which are preferred when you don't have a decision-making edge over your opponents. It's only when you've gained said edge that you should widen your range in hopes of multiplying your edge over a larger number of (increasingly tougher) decisions.
Rock solid thinking here.
Let me give a simple example here that sums it up quickly. Let’s say you are in a 50/50 league with 90 entries. In a normal week with 30 teams in play (either due to byes or a Thursday game), that would mean that – on average – the quarterbacks, kickers (if any) and defenses would all be equally represented in three lineups in the league each. Now of course there are some better defenses, so let’s say the best defenses would be represented 3-4 times as much, but that is still only 9-12 lineups, or 10-13% of the teams in the league using those teams.
Now, let’s take this to a Thanksgiving contest with just six teams in play with the same 90 entries. There are only six viable quarterbacks, kickers and defenses to pick from, so odds are that every one of them will be used at least nine times, or be on 10% of the lineups or more. That means if you choose the wrong one, you will be at a big disadvantage and that your lack of a unique lineup (because so many other lineups will contain the players you use), your odds of recovering from that disadvantage are not good.
So the simple lesson this week is to avoid playing limited player pool games – but not entirely. I will throw one curveball at you (to change sports analogies briefly). If you really want to play and this Thursday, consider tournament entries only - which is exactly what DraftKings and FanDuel are promoting - these Thursday tournaments. That is the way to play for Thursday. Going back a few weeks when I did recommend playing in a Monday-Thursday contest with a limited lineup, only put in a lineup that tells a story well for the two or three games involved for that contest. If you think Seattle is going to run a ton and shut out San Francisco, use Marshawn Lynch, Steven Hauschka and the Seahawks defense – but do not use Colin Kaepernick or Anquan Boldin. That would not make sense with your game script. Be sure to be consistent in your thinking and your lineup decisions.
Bottom line - have some fun and enter a few tournament entries for Thanksgiving to make your Happy Thanksgiving even happier.
Have fun and Happy Thanksgiving.
INDUSTRY NEWS
Thanksgiving Thursday Contests
This time of year, several sites roll out contests for Thanksgiving. This is a great way to play the games on Thursday, and there are some big prizes at stake. For example:
Fanduel's Thursday NFL Gravy Bomb - This Thursday only multi-entry contest offers $1.25 Million in prizes, including $120,000 to first place. Entry is only $25 and over 11,000 entrants will earn more than double their entry fee!
DraftKing's Wishbone Classic - This Thursday only multi-entry contest offers $600,000 in prizes, including $100,000 to first place. Entry is only $20 and over 8,000 entrants will earn at least twice their entry fee! Good luck!
Check out both of these and all of the other sites in the DFS space for extra special tournament plays for this special day of NFL football.
DraftKings' Smaller Problem Last Sunday
ON THE DAILY AND INTERACTIVE VALUE CHARTS
Footballguys' own Maurile Tremblay does not just do projections for Footballguys - oh no, far from it. One of the best innovations that he has provided since last year is his "On the Daily" column, where he takes his projections, David Dodds' projections, and Sigmund Bloom's projections and provides recommended optimal lineups for five major DFS sites (FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftDay, FantasyAces, FantasyFeud) based on those projections. How cool is that?
But what if you want to play at other sites or build your own lineup (or multiple lineups)? Once again, Maurile has you covered. He has provided interactive value chart pages where you can click on each player, sort by position, salary and value (points per $10K) to craft your own custom team. All of the links for these are provided below in our Daily Content on Footballguys table plus they appear weekly on Footballguys' weekly home page.
But wait - there's more! Maurile went even further by adding the ability to partially fill out a lineup and have the tool fill in the rest of your roster. From Maurile himself:
How cool is that?
DAILY CONTENT AROUND FOOTBALLGUYS.COM
NFL WEEK 13
Halfway into the NFL season, and we have had some big, big contests in DFS so far - and the fun continues. Let's dig into some of the big contests out there. If there are any that I miss, please drop me an email (pasquino@footballguys.com) and I will update this article.
FANDUEL - WEEK 13 BIG CONTESTS
All of these contests can be found in the lobby at FanDuel.
DRAFTKINGS - WEEK 13 BIG CONTESTS
Are you interested in winning $1 Million Dollars in a single week? DraftKings hopes that you are.
NFL $2.2M Millionaire Maker - $1,000,000 to First Place. Another week, another guaranteed Millionaire Maker, where you can turn $27 into $1 Million! Over the past three weeks, the Millionaire Maker has paid out $1 Million to first place, and DraftKings is doing it again this week. First place will become an instant millionaire, and over 15,000 spots are paid out in total. Multiple lineups per player are permitted. Enter now!
King of the Beach - Only one week left to qualify! Just $12 to Enter. This King of the Beach Qualifier awards first place one of only 50 spots in the $2.5M King of the Beach and a VIP trip to Atlantis (Dec 4th - 8th) for the live final on December 7th! Enter now for your shot at the $1M top prize! See King of the Beach promotions page for full terms & conditions.
NFL Sunday 300 Grand. $300,000 in total prizes. $200 to enter. Up to 1,667 entries with the top 350 getting a payout. $50,000 to first.
World's Biggest $50 50/50 - This 2,224-player contest boasts a $100,080 prize pool and pays out the top 1,112 finishing positions. All winners earn $90. Good luck!
World's Biggest $20 50/50 - This 6,668-player contest boasts a $100,008 prize pool and pays out the top 5,556 finishing positions. All winners earn $36. Good luck!
World's Biggest $10 50/50 - This 11,112-player contest boasts a $100,008 prize pool and pays out the top 5,556 finishing positions. All winners earn $18. Good luck!
Future Big Contests:
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.