David Dodds has a long running feature series at Footballguys in which he opens his playbook and shows how he melds his knowledge of ADP, personal player evaluations and projections to have the "perfect draft." It's one of my favorite articles every August and it's served me extremely well over the years. It's a concept that I enjoy applying to IDP leagues.
I don’t remember who tweeted it first, but there’s an easy theoretical algorithm to the perfect draft.
1. Avoid drafting players that bust in the early rounds.
2. Hit on all your upside bets in the middle rounds.
3. Win your league running away.
Sigmund Bloom boils those lines down to a single phrase in his master draft plan: “Every plan works if you pick the right players.”
Of course, it’s not that easy.
And there's absolutely more than one path to having a perfect draft. In the years I’ve been writing the IDP version of this feature, I’ve haven't scripted specific players or even specific positions to a specific round. Have a range in mind, but don't draft as rigidly as Bill Walsh game planning his first 25 plays. In general terms, it is smart have an idea of what your optimal Plan A should be. But your optimal plan is a huge dog to fall into place just as you hope on draft day.
It's the process of thinking through the possibilities that prepares you to have the best draft possible. So, let's talk process first, then apply the process to this year's player pool.
PILLARS OF PERFECT DRAFT STRATEGY
1. Be aware of your league's parameters and competition.
You're a Footballguys Insider. You know this. But it bears repeating, especially since there is no single standard IDP scoring system. The perfect draft process, for me, relies on one part statistics, one part player evaluation and one part tier/ADP strategy. All three parts assume a precise understanding of your league's scoring system and a reasonable expectation about how your competition will value a given class of players.
2. Set up your draft board in tiers before the draft.
You can get an idea of how I do this in the positional tiers series we publish -- Sigmund Bloom (offense) and myself (defense) -- and update regularly during the preseason. I think using projections as a single data point or a list of players ranked 1-N is dangerous. You lose too much context. Your sixth ranked running back may be very close to the eleventh ranked running back in your mind. Or you may feel there's a significant tier break between your fourth and fifth ranked wide receiver.
Splitting your draft board into tiers allows you to see exactly where you stand at each position during the draft at a glance. It gives you maximum flexibility. You can identify smart relative values – i.e. there are eight RB2 available but only one TE1 left on my board, so it's better to take the TE. The flexibility within your tier list helps separate upside when needed – Player X is a big risk-reward as my RB14, but I want an upside player as the right foil for my safe, elite RB1, so he's a better fit than the RB9 right now.
Perhaps most importantly, it limits the chances you'll get stuck on the wrong side of run or push the panic button in the middle of one in the heat of the draft.
You can define your tiers in any number of ways. I tend to be boring and split into categories like Elite RB, Strong RB1 with questions, High Upside RB2, High Floor RB2, and so on. Others might have catchier names (gold standard, silver dollar, etc.) or break them into round grades (1st round, 2nd round, 3rd-4th round, etc.). The key is to be true to the process so that you're not debating player values during the draft. If you know that you'll reach for Gio Bernard or Terrance Williams or Travis Kelce before your first attempt at tiering your draft board says you should, bump that player up a tier before you draft. But be prepared to live with the consequences of falling too hard for any given player.
3. Understand what ADP means.
Average draft position, right? The point at which Player X is generally going in relation to his peers and overall. Absolutely, but know what "average" means in this context. Some players may go 2-3 rounds earlier than current ADP, especially in late August when ADP values seemingly change from hour to hour. Remember that the ADP data is only as good as the last draft from which it was taken.
Here's where the art of the tier process and ADP strategy comes in. If your player analysis and projections says a player belongs a tier or more ahead of his current ADP, i.e. Player X is in the RB2+ tier on your board but carries and ADP of RB33, don't fuss over getting that player at "value." Why get stuck with a back ten slots and two tiers down your board because you waited until it was "correct" to draft him by ADP? If you trust your analysis, let your leaguemates point fingers and laugh when you "reach" for Player X. If you’re right, you'll be the one laughing when it matters.
THE PERFECT IDP DRAFT
Let's assume a twelve team league, with a standard QB-2RB-3WR-TE-PK offensive lineup, PPR scoring, a reasonably standard 2DE-3LB-2DB IDP setup with balanced scoring and roster sizes between 30 and 36. I'll also assume you'll be in a competitive draft where your leaguemates are preparing with more than an outdated magazine.
Scripting the Early Rounds
Using tiers allows you to remain flexible in your draft, but a good set of tiers should suggest a loose draft strategy for your first few rounds. If you need help setting up your offensive tiers, do what I do. Consult the projections of David Dodds (FantasyPros third most accurate expert over the past four seasons combined) and Bob Henry (two-time Fantasy Index poll champ, fourth place finish in 2013) and the offensive tiers of Sigmund Bloom and Matt Waldman. That's the tip of the iceberg of course. All of our staff contributes to value play articles and spotlights and much more.
But make an effort to put your own spreadsheet together. The learning curve isn’t that steep. One major pitfall: the always annoying cut-and-paste error that leaves a player you like off your draft board. Then do a mock draft – at least through 8-10 rounds – to make sure you’re comfortable with your tiers and how to adjust on the fly.
My personal tiers have pushed me to the following game plan:
- Quarterback is deep and ripe to attack with a committee very late in your draft.
- Unless there’s an elite tier WR or TE available, err on the side of a Top 20 RB in the early rounds.
- Make sure you put a tier of your favorite upside WR3/4 candidates and get one.
- Make sure you put a tier of your favorite upside TE2 candidates and get one.
- Plan to take an elite linebacker rather than the elite defensive end.
- Forget about drafting a defensive back until the very late rounds.
However, I’m willing to deviate from my plan anytime my tiers say there is stronger than expected value at a position. The most likely of those situations will be:
- When a top three quarterback is still available in the third or fourth round.
- When my running back and wide receiver roster is deep and strong, there are multiple elite linebackers left on the board and I’m staring at a top three defensive end.
Special situations to consider before you draft:
- Where do you tier Rob Gronkowski and how early are you willing to take him?
- How high you value J.J. Watt and Robert Quinn in a big play scoring league?
WEAVING IDPS INTO YOUR PERFECT DRAFT
The primary focus of this article is to highlight the best places to weave in each IDP position and highlight the biggest IDP value relative to ADP. Here is my expected best process overall and by position, including my undervalued targets at each position.
1. Roster at least one elite linebacker this year.
This doesn’t mean you have to take Luke Kuechly or Lavonte David in the fifth, sixth or seventh round. However, unlike in previous seasons, when I argued that the second and third tiers held so much value that it was smart to prioritize a stud defensive end and offensive depth first, the uncertainty in the middle tiers this season dictate getting a top ten linebacker (or two) as an anchor even if you’re confident in your ability to attack the free agent list successfully during the season.
Get my most recent set of linebacker tiers on our IDP articles page here.
I think Jerod Mayo, Karlos Dansby and Paul Worrilow will represent the best elite linebacker values and I’ve been able to roster Wesley Woodyard as my LB2 in nearly every league. I think many of you will have a good chance to get two of the elite backers on my tier board and Woodyard. Barring injury, that should give you three anchors to work with all year long.
After 15-20 linebackers are drafted, I like Mason Foster and Jamie Collins as high upside LB3 targets (they’re tiered higher than that on my board). Try to add Keenan Robinson as depth much later in your draft. Check my tier board – making adjustments for Manti Te’o (drop from LB3 tiers due to another foot sprain) and Anthony Hitchens (consider late as the potential starting middle linebacker for Dallas) – for notes, current ADP and trends on every linebacker I’ve tiered.
2. Roster an elite defensive end if you can but recognize this year’s improved depth.
In previous seasons, the lack of depth at the top (and middle) tiers of the defensive end ranks dictated that you prioritize and elite defensive lineman in your draft around the eighth or ninth round. I will not talk you out of doing the same this year. If you see J.J. Watt or Robert Quinn as supreme relative value – a very valid argument to make – roster them and work through your linebacker and offensive depth as you can.
Get my most recent set of defensive line tiers on our IDP articles page here.
But two things have stood out to me as I’ve mocked through lots of scenarios this offseason with other industry experts. First, you can get Chandler Jones a round or more after Watt and Quinn. I love Jones this year and it would not be shocking to see Jones catch Watt and Quinn in year-end fantasy points in the same way Quinn caught Watt last year. Even if you miss on Jones, Cameron Wake, Demarcus Ware, Jason Pierre-Paul and many others are going to be strong options in the ninth round and sometimes well beyond.
Unless you’re in an extremely competitive league, you can usually find a way to easily get three of my top 25-30 defensive linemen on your roster. But if your league is very strong and knowledgeable or you choose to slough IDPs until late in your draft, my upside targets to fill your DL2 slot include Everson Griffen and Jerry Hughes. Mathias Kiwanuka is another strong depth target who should be available very late in your draft.
3. Only draft defensive backs from your elite tiers.
The group of safeties capable of 80 solo tackles (or 60-65 solos and the peripheral coverage plays to make up for the tackle difference) is deep this year. I have eight players in my elite tier (high ceiling and high floor) and another 13 players in my near elite tier (strong ceiling, questionable weekly floor). I’ve leveraged my tiers such that I’m always the last owner to draft a defensive back.
Get my most recent set of defensive back tiers on our IDP articles page here.
If Harrison Smith or Barry Church or T.J. Ward or another 100+ solo tackle safety is available after every upside offensive depth option and strong defensive end or linebacker goes off the board, draft him. Otherwise, I’m usually seeing Kenny Vaccaro as the most likely to be available from my elite tier. Many rounds later, I’ve usually rostered a combination of Stevie Brown, Donte Whitner and Tyvon Branch. I’ve also not been afraid to add Tyrann Mathieu and Reshad Jones. Neither may be at full fantasy strength until Week 5 or 6, but the value is there at current ADPs.
If you miss on every preferred defensive back target, you’ll easily be able to stream the defensive back position. That often applies in full IDP leagues with very deep rosters. So don’t panic here. Try to add some relative value to your lineup at the defensive back slots but do not do so at the expense of an upside RB5 or WR5 or DE2 or LB4.
4. Always err on the side of high upside rather than a high floor when drafting IDP depth.
The top three bullets in the IDP section of this article may change from season to season. This one never will. A high floor is nice, but unless you've got a lineup full of studs, a high floor LB3 without any upside provides no relative advantage for your lineup against a good team. Rather than filling out your roster with a player like Curtis Lofton or Nick Roach, take a shot on Brandon Spikes or Ryan Shazier or Keenan Robinson or Sio Moore.
BIG PLAY SCORING LEAGUE NOTES
More and more of you are gravitating toward scoring systems that value big plays highly. I’m with you. Sacks and turnovers change field position and lead to scoring chances for the offense (if not the defensive player who makes the play). The players that generate those game-changing situations should be highly valued in fantasy leagues.
Many of my leagues utilize a system that makes Von Miller as valuable as Patrick Willis. But the Von Miller, Terrell Suggs, Justin Houston tier is easy to differentiate. What sets your roster apart is having Cameron Wake or Justin Houston on your roster during their breakout season. And those players – as this feature has shown over the years – are fairly easy to identify.
First, take note that both Suggs and Miller are currently undervalued. I don’t know what the concern is with Suggs this year. Yes, he’s old. But he – as many other pass rushers before him did – recovered well from an Achilles injury last year. And he’s shown no signs of slowing down yet. He still belongs in the elite tier. As does Miller, who has looked good enough in training camp practices to risk.
My best bets to jump to the elite rush LB1 tier from the lower ranks this year are Brian Orakpo and Barkevious Mingo. Orakpo is playing for another contract in 2015, looks healthy and should benefit from a more aggressive subpackage scheme in Washington. Mingo is playing nearly every down (with Jabaal Sheard a rotational body only) and looks more comfortable in all phases.
I’m also watching Khalil Mack (in my elite tiers until preseason play showed him to sit in some nickel situations) and Jadeveon Clowney (if he gets off to a hot start, don’t write it off as a fluke).
That's it. Make sure you're comfortable with your tiers before your draft starts and you'll be able to handle any curve balls your leaguemates leave hanging over the middle of the plate. With luck, your draft can go just like Bloom suggests.
Follow and ask questions on Twitter @JeneBramel. Reading the Defense will be a regular feature this offseason with free agent commentary, draft prospect previews, tier discussion, links to our offseason IDP roundtable podcasts and much more. Subscribe to The Audible on iTunes or download our IDP podcast here.