It’s getting close to the time of commitment in our drafts. It’s important to not overreact to the preseason and camp news, but also to not ignore it completely. Momentum is a real thing in a player’s career and our draft boards should reflect positive and negative momentum as we perceive it peeking through our keyholes at the NFL. Here’s what I can make out:
1. Jamaal Charles, RB, KC
2. LeSean McCoy, RB, PHI
3. Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN
4. Matt Forte, RB, CHI
5. Jimmy Graham, TE, NO
6. Calvin Johnson, WR, DET
I’m not going to argue with you about the order of these six players at the top of your draft. These are the players (along with Peyton Manning) who can make it seem like you have an unfair advantage over your opponent.
7. Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
You don’t have to take him this high, but Gronk is the seventh member of that group. He has to get far enough back from a late season 2013 ACL tear to recapture his dominant form to justify this ranking, but he did it last year within three games from a much more tumultuous offseason. Bless you if you can get him in the third.
8. DeMarco Murray, RB, DAL
9. Eddie Lacy, RB, GB
10. Demaryius Thomas, WR, DEN
11. Dez Bryant, WR, DAL
12. Julio Jones, WR, ATL
13. Marshawn Lynch, RB, SEA
14. A.J. Green, WR, CIN
Murray and Lacy could be the equals of the top four running backs, but both have some durability concerns. Thomas and Bryant could approach Megatron numbers, but they haven’t done that before. Lynch is still the lead back on defense/running game champion. Green has Thomas and Bryant’s talent, but not their QBs or pass-friendly offenses. Getting two of these guys at the turn is a fine start to any draft.
15. Arian Foster, RB, HOU
16. Montee Ball, RB, DEN
On paper both of these backs should be good this year. With Foster there is an anxiety about injuries even though he is one of the few backs in the NFL right now who has proven that he can excel under a feature back workload year after year. He even did it as the Texans crumbled around him last year. Ball has the plug and play Peyton offense around him and needs only to avoid major pass protection lapses to cash in on low RB1 value, but he is not a transcendent talent by any means and it still feels off to take him with an early second. I don’t love the feeling of risk this high in the second, but when I look at the wide receivers I would take here, while they are great, they aren’t that different from the ones I’m seeing in the fourth round. The running backs, on the other hand, are very different. This ranking is all about positional value.
17. Brandon Marshall, WR, CHI
18. Jordy Nelson, WR, GB
19. Antonio Brown, WR, PIT
20. Alshon Jeffery, WR, CHI
I hope to take Rob Gronkowski over these wide receivers in the second. I might even take a running back over them if I went Graham or Calvin Johnson in the first. They are rock solid WR1s, and any of them could finish in top five this year.
21. Giovani Bernard, RB, CIN
22. Andre Ellington, RB, ARI
23. C.J. Spiller, RB, BUF
24. Doug Martin, RB, TB
25. LeVeon Bell, RB, PIT
All of these backs have the potential to reach the top five, but usage, workload, and quality of their surrounding offenses also give them a lower weekly floor. I have confidence in Spiller’s talent and a month ago would have had him at the top of this tier, but I am starting to waver about Marrone’s offense because of Manuel. I am getting a sneaking suspicion that Bernard could get something resembling a true feature back load including the primary role in the red zone and wouldn’t blame someone for going overboard to get him in the early second. Ellington could go Charles 2010/Spiller 2012 on us, but the possibility of games being played with his workload casts a shadow on his stock. Martin is coming on with Charles Sims out for the year, but Tampa’s line is looking as bad as the one that made life hard for Martin before he got hurt last year. I wish I wasn’t spooked by the report that LeGarrette Blount will get goal line carries for the Steelers, but it sounds like Todd Haley. They should come to their senses eventually, but without touchdowns, Bell lacks the big play ability to be an RB1. I lack clarity on Bell right now, which equals only taking him in third and only after my other RB targets are gone.
26. Randall Cobb, WR, GB
27. Julius Thomas, TE, DEN
28. Peyton Manning, QB, DEN
These guys are all rock solid picks in the third that can help you win your league. I won’t talk you out of any of them. I like the value at tight end better earlier, but Thomas could easily show up even better than last year and approach Graham/Gronk levels of production. I won’t blame you for taking him as high as the late second in PPR if Gronkowski is gone. Cobb has a great quarterback and is not a stretch to be a 100-catch receiver in a 16-game season. Manning was worth a top two pick last year and he could win leagues again this year, but I prefer to punt quarterback because it is the easiest position to solve later in your draft.
29. Alfred Morris, RB, WAS
30. Zac Stacy, RB, STL
This duo lacks PPR punch, which lowers both their weekly upside and floor, but they are primary backs with a track record of success. Stacy might be in the better situation, but Morris is the better talent.
31. Jordan Cameron, TE, CLE
Cameron’s ceiling is by far the highest of the remaining tight ends, and he has a 80-917-7 floor if the Cleveland QB play is as bad as last year. Cameron in the fifth or later is a steal. He, like Thomas, could come out of the gate a lot better than we remember him at the end of last year because he is still early in his football career curve as a former basketball player. Both Cameron and Thomas’s rankings apply only if you don’t have Graham or Gronkowski.
32. Roddy White, WR, ATL
33. Victor Cruz, WR, NYG
34. Vincent Jackson, WR, TB
35. Pierre Garcon, WR, WAS
36. Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, MIN
37. Andre Johnson, WR, HOU
38. Keenan Allen, WR, SD
39. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARI
40. Michael Floyd, WR, ARI
41. DeSean Jackson, WR, WAS
42. Percy Harvin, WR, SEA
This is your FAT third tier of wide receivers. All of these guys (and some that come after them) have WR1 upside. You can wait until the fourth round to take your WR1 and fifth round to take your WR2 with impunity this year. I won’t get into fistfights with anyone over how to order the wide receivers in the fourth and fifth round, but I feel pretty strongly about wide receiver being your target position in those rounds.
43. Drew Brees, QB, NO
44. Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB
This basically amounts to, “if Brees or Rodgers make it to the fifth round, it’s probably the right move to take them”.
45. Torrey Smith, WR, BAL
46. Michael Crabtree, WR, SF
47. Emmanuel Sanders, WR, DEN
48. Julian Edelman, WR, NE
This group is basically a mini sub-tier of the fat third tier. Smith and Crabtree are very talented, but the path to WR1 production is a little rougher without a top passing QB and crowded passing games. Sanders and Edelman are in terrific situations but have long-term durability concerns. I’d very pleased with any from this group as my WR3 in the sixth. (Update: with Wes Welker's concussion, Sanders might move up to being a value in the 5th)
49. Ryan Mathews, RB, SD
50. Reggie Bush, RB, DET
51. Shane Vereen, RB, NE
52. Ray Rice, RB, BAL
I believe in the talent of four of these backs, but they have much larger questions than the WRs in the above tiers. Mathews, Bush, and Vereen could all be in three-headed backfields, and Rice may split his down the middle. Mathews, Bush, and Vereen all have spotty durability records, and Rice could be in his decline phase. Still, they are productive backs when they get the touches, and their surrounding offenses have the look of units that will create a fertile ground for fantasy production. I would be fine with any of these as a base in a RB2BC approach, but likely not until the sixth round.
53. T.Y. Hilton, WR, IND
54. Marques Colston, WR, NO
55. Reggie Wayne, WR, IND
I can’t quite decipher how the big the Colts passing game will be this year and how it will be divvied up, but I know Luck is simpatico with Wayne and Hilton is an ascendant talent. Colston was fine once he rested his foot last year, and he’s in a terrific offense. Wayne looks like he won’t miss a beat after an ACL tear last year. Getting these guys in the seventh is stealing.
56. Wes Welker, WR, DEN
57. Kelvin Benjamin, WR, CAR
58. Brandin Cooks, WR, NO
59. Mike Wallace, WR, MIA
60. Kendall Wright, WR, TEN
I have misgivings about this quintet, but I also see their strong WR2 upside as undeniable if a few things from the past get straightened out. Benjamin in particular should be a target of yours in the seventh.
61. Rashad Jennings, RB, NYG
62. Joique Bell, RB, DET
63. Frank Gore, RB, SF
64. Toby Gerhart, RB, JAX
65. Chris Johnson, RB, NYJ
66. Ben Tate, RB, CLE
I don’t see an RB1 in this group in any scenario. These guys all have warts of varying shapes and sizes. I don’t feel passionate about any of them, but there’s some good to great talent and solid base opportunity to build from. This group where an acceptable seventh round RB to anchor an RB2BC can come from. Gore in particular stands out as a preferred target in that approach.
67. Bishop Sankey, RB, TEN
68. Trent Richardson, RB, IND
I see the argument for these guys to have consistent value this year on volume alone, but something in my gut says no when it comes time to draft them.
69. Nick Foles, QB, PHI
70. Andrew Luck, QB, IND
A bet on Foles is a bet on Chip Kelly. A bet on Luck is a bet against the Dallas defense in Week 16. Foles draws the Cowboys in Weeks 13 and 15. Giddyup.
71. Terrance Williams, WR, DAL
72. Kenny Stills, WR, NO
73. Justin Hunter, WR, TEN
74. Eric Decker, WR, NYJ
75. Sammy Watkins, WR, BUF
Every single member of this group is going to have 4-6 good to great games. They may even string them together, with an outside shot of being semi-consistent when they’re not going off. I’m still not convinced of any of their ability to be truly trustworthy as everyweek starters in a fantasy league. Ideally, they’re your #5 WR in the eighth or later.
76. Stevan Ridley, RB, NE
At this point, he’s the football, we’re Charlie Brown, and Belichick is Lucy. Still, Ridley was very useful for a four-game stretch last year, and his upside as a potential pounder for a strong defensive winning team is hard to pass up in the eighth or later.
77. Fred Jackson, RB, BUF
78. Steven Jackson, RB, ATL
79. Pierre Thomas, RB, NO
These guys are all high floor RB2/flex types who can be your first shot at a RB2BC approach or a solid RB3 after you neglect the position in the mid-rounds. The Jacksons might be closer to high RB2 on a weekly basis. Steven is injury prone, but the Falcons backfield produced five 20+ point PPR games last year. Quality picks in the 8th or later.
80. Robert Griffin III III, QB, WAS
81. Matthew Stafford, QB, DET
82. Matt Ryan, QB, ATL
I’m cool with any of this group as my QB if they are there in the ninth. Ryan is the only one with a good shot of that happening. Griffin is theoretically explosive on a game to game basis, but I’m worried about his confidence. There’s a good case for Stafford earlier based on his production with a healthy Megatron last year, but the last three times I saw him, he played like doodoo. That left a bad taste in my mouth for drafts this year. Ryan gets his WRs back and his line can’t be worse than last year.
83. Darren Sproles, RB, PHI
84. Danny Woodhead, RB, SD
The variable usage of these backs could make plugging them in as anything more than a matchup flex a dicey proposition, but they have also been known to go off for a stretch and be strong RB2 with weekly WR1 upside. Excellent #4 bench RBs, acceptable RB3s if you start RB-RB.
85. Lamar Miller, RB, MIA
86. Carlos Hyde, RB, SF
87. Christine Michael RB, SEA
There’s upside here, but I’m much more convinced of Miami being able to run the ball consistently as I am of the chances Frank Gore or Marshawn Lynch go down with injuries. Much more likely to ride the pine all year for you than pan out, but if they do pan out, hoh boy.
88. Zach Ertz, TE, PHI
89. Jordan Reed, TE, WAS
90. Kyle Rudolph, TE, MIN
91. Dwayne Allen, TE, IND
92. Travis Kelce, TE, KC
Here’s your #1 upside TE list if you miss out on the top four. Double up if you can. Maybe even worth taking in the 10th as a #2 to even Jimmy Graham for trade bait/insurance because there is a path to TE5 for each of them, although not without risk. Your Jordan Cameron/Julius Thomas of 2014 is coming from this list.
93. Tom Brady, QB, NE
94. Colin Kaepernick, QB, SF
95. Russell Wilson, QB, SEA
96. Jay Cutler, QB, CHI
97. Tony Romo, QB, DAL
98. Cam Newton, QB, CAR
That’s 14 QBs in the top 98, but I’m not advocating taking two quarterbacks. The main message here is that this tier is pretty flat and you might even argue that a name or two on this list should be higher in the top 100. You should be going best quarterback available once your core list of top 75-80 position players are gone.
99. Jason Witten, TE, DAL
100. Greg Olsen, TE, CAR
101. Dennis Pitta, TE, BAL
102. Vernon Davis, TE, SF
These tight ends make me yawn. They are safe high floor weekly options, but they are also low ceiling on both a weekly and season-long level compared to their peers in the top 9 on my list.
103. Anquan Boldin, WR, SF
104. Greg Jennings, WR, MIN
105. Hakeem Nicks, WR, IND
This veteran trio has the potential to be nice bye/injury/emergency depth, or maybe even a little more. They could also be replaceable depth and basically a push of a draft pick. Whether they are the right pick or not depends on the volatility of the WRs that make up your core.
106. Mike Evans, WR, TB
107. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, HOU
108. Cody Latimer, WR, DEN
109. Tavon Austin, WR STL
I can tell myself a story where any of these young receivers end up being everyweek plays at some point this season, but I don’t know if I totally buy it. Make Latimer a priority pick in the 13th or later. (Update: Wes Welker concussion makes Latimer a priority pick in the 10th or later)
110. Heath Miller, TE, PIT
111. Tyler Eifert, TE, CIN
These guys both have solid TE1 upside, but not quite the TE5 upside of the Ertz, etc. group above.
112. Riley Cooper, WR, PHI
113. Golden Tate, WR, DET
114. Jeremy Maclin, WR, PHI
115. Markus Wheaton, WR, PIT
116. Jarrett Boykin, WR, GB
In any given week, this group could produce a top 10 WR score. They have the QB/offense quality and talent to do it. However, none of them are likely to be central parts of the passing gameplan without injuries to complementary or superior pieces. They work as bye/injury/emergency depth with potential to get hot and generate trade value.
117. Martellus Bennett, TE, CHI
118. Ladarius Green, TE, SD
Two more tight ends with low TE1 potential and maybe even a mid TE1 ceiling. I’m not totally sold on Green being a consistent part of the offense yet in San Diego and Bennett is what he is.
119. Cecil Shorts, WR, JAX
120. Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC
121. Danny Amendola, WR, NE
Shorts and Amendola will miss time and Bowe will have a string of duds in the unimaginative short-handed Chiefs passing game, but we’ve also seen this trio produce good single game outputs when things line up for them. They are worth a bench spot to see if they can start the year on the right floor and regain past form. No remorse cuts for an early waiver wire flavor of the week if they start slow.
122. Lance Dunbar, RB, DAL
123. Khiry Robinson, RB, NO
124. Bernard Pierce, RB, BAL
This group represents young talent who could get their foot in the door for increased opportunity this season. Dunbar is an especially attractive target with Scott Linehan calling the shots. Linehan tends to feed RBs in the passing game. Robinson and Pierce also lack the injury upside of Dunbar, but have a higher weekly floor without injury.
125. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, OAK
126. Darren McFadden, RB, OAK
I’m just lukewarm on Oakland in general. I know McFadden and Jones-Drew can ball from their histories, but I’m not sure I want to spend anything more than a 13th round pick on any Oakland back. I expect this to be an RBBC from the get-go and stay in flux even in the inevitable event of a McFadden injury.
127. Terrance West, RB, CLE
128. Devonta Freeman, RB, ATL
129. Tre Mason, RB, STL
130. Andre Williams, RB, NYG
131. Jeremy Hill, RB, CIN
The rookie running back crop! They are the shiny new toys, but they all need injuries to even have a shot to be relevant. West is interesting with Tate’s injury history, but I’m not sold on him being ready to click in the Shanahan running game. Freeman will likely have to share with Jacquizz Rodgers. Mason has to learn pass pro. Williams can’t catch. Hill looks like he’ll have to deal with fantasy thorn in our side Benjarvus Green-Ellis now that Rex Burkhead appears to be hurt.
132. Rueben Randle, WR, NYG
133. Jordan Matthews, WR, PHI
This pair of NFC East receivers has their backers, but I’m not one of them.
134. Philip Rivers, QB, SD
135. Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT
I’m not excited to start either of these quarterbacks, but they are just fine as the “oh $#&*” plan if you get left out in the cold and 14 passers go before you take one.
136. Seattle D/ST
Play em in the home weeks and stream the away weeks and it’ll work out.
137. Allen Hurns, WR, JAX
This is how the "out of nowhere" WR2/WR3 story starts in fantasy leagues.
138. Dexter McCluster, RB, TEN
139. Mark Ingram, RB, NO
140. DeAngelo Williams, RB, CAR
141. Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR
142. Knowshon Moreno, RB, MIA
My better instincts tell me that these backs are not going to mount to any sustained startable value this year, but I can see ways that they could surpass those low expectations. They’re worth end of the bench spots to see if they start hot or get some injury upside fulfilled.
143. Rod Streater, WR, OAK
144. Andrew Hawkins, WR, CLE
145. Doug Baldwin, WR, SEA
146. Brian Hartline, WR, MIA
These receivers could prove to be useful if you have trouble building WR depth, but they are unlikely to become reliable enough to become desired every week starters.
147. Marqise Lee, WR, JAX
148. Odell Beckham Jr WR, NYG
149. Kenny Britt, WR, STL
150. Andre Holmes, WR, OAK
There’s promise of talent here but I’m wary of taking these guys because their surroundings aren’t great and the talent may tempt you to hold them for too long.
151. New England D/ST
I think they could be dominant this year. Mix into a streaming approach when there aren’t good matchups for them.
152. John Brown, WR, ARI
153. Aaron Dobson, WR, NE
154. Davante Adams, WR, GB
155. Paul Richardson Jr, WR, SEA
156. Kenbrell Thompkins, WR, NE
This group of intriguing WR talents probably needs injuries to achieve fantasy relevance, but they have ability and good to great QBs. With a few early flashy plays, they could justify a longer stash period on your bench.
157. Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, ATL
158. Roy Helu, RB, WAS
159. Donald Brown, RB, SD
160. LeGarrette Blount, RB, PIT
161. Chris Ivory, RB, NYJ
162. Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, IND
163. James Starks, RB, GB
164. C.J. Anderson, RB, DEN
165. Knile Davis, RB, KC
166. Chris Polk, RB, PHI
167. Bryce Brown, RB, BUF
A bunch of solid to good backups who could be valuable if starters go down ahead of them. Their value is a factor of their talent, the quality of the surrounding offense, the likelihood of starter injury, and whether they would have to share with another backup.
168. Charles Clay, TE, MIA
169. Delanie Walker, TE, TEN
170. Antonio Gates, TE, SD
This group is safe, high-floor backup TE material, but the waiver wire can often provide that.
171. Carson Palmer, QB, ARI
172. Johnny Manziel, QB, CLE
173. Blake Bortles, QB, JAX
If a QB1 comes outside of the consensus top 16, it will likely be one of these two.
174. Steve Smith, WR, BAL
175. Malcom Floyd, WR, SD
176. Jerricho Cotchery, WR, CAR
177. James Jones, WR, OAK
178. Miles Austin, WR, CLE
179. Mohamed Sanu, WR, CIN
Any of this group could build a little momentum with starting roles early in the season, but sustained startable value is highly unlikely.
180. Shonn Greene, RB, TEN
181. Theo Riddick, RB, DET
182. Brandon Bolden, RB, NE
183. James White, RB, NE
184. Stepfan Taylor, RB, ARI
185. Jonathan Grimes, RB, HOU
186. Alfred Blue, RB, HOU
187. Latavius Murray, RB, OAK
188. Robert Turbin, RB, SEA
Running back lottery tickets.
189. Marvin Jones, WR, CIN
I’m not convinced Jones will play in Week 5 coming out of the Bengals bye, nor am I convinced he’ll be full speed when he does return. That’s a big cost for a player that was a boom/bust WR3/Flex before breaking his foot.
190. Mychal Rivera, TE, OAK
191. Brandon LaFell, WR, NE
192. Harry Douglas, WR, ATL
193. Frankie Hammond, WR, KC
194. Andre Roberts, WR, WAS
195. Mike Williams, WR, BUF
196. Ryan Tannehill, QB, MIA
197. Andy Dalton, QB, CIN
198. Cole Beasley, WR, DAL
199. Denarius Moore, WR, OAK
200. Donte Moncrief, WR, IND
