FBG says: Tough matchup. Just when the Tampa Bay backfield was thought to have been settling out with Ronald Jones at the helm, they throw another curveball by giving Peyton Barber 17 carries to just six for Jones in last week's blowout victory. The split between Jones and Barber has been rather unpredictable all season long as there have been games in which one out-carries the other by double-digits on multiple occasions. Neither running back has been particularly productive though, and this Tampa Bay rushing offense ranks 22nd in the league with 96.2 rushing yards per game and a below-average 3.7 yards per attempt. Barber has exceeded 4.0 yards per carry just one time this season, while Jones has done it only three times--including just one game of more than 3.7 yards per rush attempt in his last nine outings. While predicting who will have the hot hand in a given week remains a challenge, the Tampa Bay offensive line has been and will continue to be a concern that ultimately limits the upside of this rushing offense.
The Colts rushing defense had their worst game of the season against the run last week as Derrick Henry put up 149 yards and a touchdown. This was the first time any running back had exceeded 90 rushing yards against a Colts defense that has played excellently to have held running backs to just the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game on the season. Despite the stats from last week, this defense still played relatively well and has the personnel to shut down opposing backfields. Linebacker Darius Leonard, in particular, had a great game last week and has been a game-changer for this defense since returning from injury. This defensive line does have a lack of depth, but their starters have been solid and should have the edge over Tampa Bay's mediocre offensive line. Look for the Colts defense to bounce back in this one as the Buccaneers running backs are in for a challenge.