FBG says: Good matchup. Tom Brady is coming off one of his more efficient games of the season, completing 24 of 32 passes for 311 yards with one touchdown and one interception. The yardage total was his fourth-highest total of the year, and his 75% completion percentage was his second best game in that regard. In his first meeting against the Dolphins, Brady threw for 274 yards and three touchdowns with two interceptions, but he was also without Julian Edelman, and Josh Gordon was just getting his feet wet in the New England offense. Gordon has had at least 70 receiving yards or a touchdown in four consecutive weeks. Edelman is starting to come on as of late, averaging 6.2 receptions for 77.6 yards in his last five games, but he has only one touchdown over that span after catching two touchdowns in his first three games of the year. James White continues to be the Patriots most dangerous receiver and is coming off a seven catch, 92-yard performance against Minnesota. White has at least five catches in nine of his 12 games this year and has eclipsed 65+ receiving yards six times. Rob Gronkowski has been a disappointment this year, as it finally looks as though the injuries he has faced throughout his career have caught up to him. He is not creating separation like we have grown accustomed to seeing, and with a much more balanced Patriots attack, he is not seeing the volume that he has in year's past. The Patriots offensive line has been fantastic this year, allowing only 16 sacks on the season while also leading the league in adjusted sack rate (3.7%).
The Miami passing defense has been a source of pride for the Dolphins in 2018, as their run defense has been among the leagues worst, yet their secondary is a big part of why the Dolphins are currently 6-6. The Dolphins suffered a big blow as Xavien Howard is out with a knee injury which could create major issues for this Dolphins secondary. The Dolphins rely on turnovers as they rank second in this category behind only the Chicago Bears, and they are tied for 1st in touchdown to interception ratio, allowing 23 passing touchdowns to 19 interceptions. This is even more impressive when you consider that Deshaun Watson lit them up for five touchdowns (with no interceptions), so if you take out that one outlier game, Miami has forced more interceptions than they've given up touchdowns. The Dolphins rank 15th in total passing yards allowed at 267 yards per game but have not allowed many big games, having given up 300+ passing yards only three times on the season. They will have their hands full this week against a Patriots offense that can beat them regardless of whether Miami slows down the pace of the game. Without Howard, this is a completely different defense that should not be feared and one that could be in for a long game this week.