QB Brock Osweiler - Miami Dolphins
|6-7, 242||Born: 11-22-1990||College: Arizona State||Drafted: Round 2, pick 2012|
Week 14: vs New England Patriots
FBG says: Neutral matchup. In his second game back from injury, Ryan Tannehill completed 16 of 24 passes for 137 yards with three touchdowns and one interception. It was the fifth time in seven starts that Tannehill has thrown for at least two touchdowns, but it is also worth mentioning that he has yet to exceed 289 passing yards in any of those games. It is not due to a lack of efficiency though, as Tannehill has completed 66.3% of his passes and is averaging 7.4 yards per attempt, ranking him above Andrew Luck, Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins and Andy Dalton in that category. Tannehill is averaging only 25.4 attempts per game, as the Dolphins have relied on solid defense, a heavy volume of rushes and an offensive pace that ranks them as the 29th slowest team in the NFL (29.53 seconds between plays). Danny Amendola has been the Dolphins most consistent receiver week to week, catching at least five passes in five of his last six games. He fits into the Dolphins conservative ball control offense very well. Kenny Stills has combined for only 10 catches in his last six games and hasn't topped 37 yards in any of those games, and DeVante Parker has been his usual inconsistent self. Kenyan Drake has caught seven passes for 77 yards and two touchdowns in his last two games, and six total touchdowns in his last six games, but Adam Gase refuses to give him consistent touches from week to week which is holding the Dolphins offense back from reaching their potential. The Miami offensive line graded out as one of the least talented units before the season started, so considering the fact that they have allowed only 31 sacks, which ranks 16th overall in the NFL, the Dolphins coaching staff have to be pleased with their progress. The New England secondary has been the weakest part of the Patriots defense this season, but to be fair, the problems start up front with the defensive line. The Patriots defensive line has been unable to put consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks, which is always going to make it difficult on your secondary, as you can only hold up in coverage for so long before the receiver has the advantage. The Patriots have given up the ninth most passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks (23 touchdowns to 14 interceptions) and the ninth most passing yards per game (262.5 passing yards per game). There is a little bit more to the numbers though, as the Patriots have consistently held leads against their opponents which have forced opposing teams to pass more often. They rank third in this category, with their opponents throwing 40.2 times per game, which is 12 more attempts than the last place team, the Oakland Raiders. Within this context, the Patriots are much better than the numbers would make you think, allowing only 6.8 yards per attempts which is tied for fourth best in the league. The Patriots top two cornerbacks, Stephon Gilmore and Jason McCourty have held their own in coverage, which has allowed the Patriots to funnel opposing offenses to the middle of the field. It does not come as much of a surprise then, that New England is allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. This is all within the scheme of their defense and has worked out quite well for them though. The problem for the Dolphins is that their top two tight ends (Mike Gesicki and Nick O'Leary) have combined for just 24 catches on the season, and have no real role in the offense from week to week. This sets up really badly for the Dolphins passing offense, and the only way to counter this is by getting out of their conservative scheme and targeting Kenny Stills and DeVante Parker on the perimeter. We have yet to see that with any consistency from Adam Gase this season though, and it is unlikely to see this change this week.
Recent Stats and Projections
Weekly Performance vs QB 1, QB 12, QB 24
Brock Osweiler's percentile rank in each category, among QB with more than 50 fantasy points.
Recent Game Summaries
2018 Week 10 vs GB (23 / 37 / 213 / 0 / 1 pass, 1 / 0 / 0 rush)
Any sense of magic or talk that Osweiler may have found the ability that caused Houston to give him a monster deal a few years ago should be dead after this week. The Packers shipped off their top safety and have struggled on defense all season long, yet the Miami offense only managed 4 field goals. Osweiler continues to not be able to finish drives and is forcing his throws. He was fixated on Amendola and Parker this week and targeted the pair on almost 2/3 of his attempts. He seems unwilling to target his tight ends with both Gesicki and O'Leary seeing 1 target for 5 yards each, and not a single target to Grant in the entire game. Osweiler may not have the best weapons in the NFL, but he certainly has more options than he is using. His lone big play of the game was a 39-yard catch and run by Amendola. All of the credit goes to Amendola who cut up field and through the void left by the zone coverage. The interception was a poor read by Osweiler. He stared down Amendola on a short route and did not see Breeland break on the ball. He effectively threw a quick pass into double coverage and paid for it. Initial reports said Tannehill would be back after the Bye week, but the most recent said that it may be Osweiler for the rest of the season. This may be the last real audition that he gets, and he will have to play much better if he even wants to continue to be a backup in the NFL.
2018 Week 9 vs NYJ (15 / 24 / 139 / 0 / 0 pass, 3 / 4 / 0 rush)
It was not the best showing for Osweiler, but he did just enough to get his team the win this week. He finished without any touchdown passes and only completed 62% of his passes. He targeted Amendola and Drake for just over half of his passes and failed to get the tight ends involved this week. His longest play of the game was a 26-yard catch and run play to Amendola and another 19-yard pass to Stills. He was sacked 4 times and failed to move the chains when it mattered most. He led the offense to 2 field goals and was very thankful for an interception returned for a touchdown. This was the difference in the game and it had nothing to do with Osweiler. There is a chance that Osweiler only gets one more start for the Dolphins before Tannehill returns after the Bye. He has sprinkled in some very good games and some duds in his 4 starts so far this year. Look for another tough matchup in Green Bay next week.
2018 Week 8 vs HOU (21 / 37 / 241 / 0 / 1 pass, 0 / 0 / 0 rush)
The Dolphins came out swinging this week, but Osweiler could not deliver. They turned the ball over on downs the first drive after he failed to connect with Frank Gore on a 4th and 1 play. They then got the ball rolling with a touchdown after a penalty nullified a field goal and gave the Dolphins a fresh set of downs. It was a rushing touchdown and Osweiler played little role on that drive. The third drive resulted in an interception and I think you can see a trend forming here. Osweiler was then buried in a hole behind a career game from Deshaun Watson and he did not even get a chance to put up garbage time stats. The lone passing touchdown came from Danny Amendola rather than Osweiler. The longest connection of the game was a 46-yard pass to DaVante Parker and even after that the Dolphins settled for a field goal. Osweiler was sacked twice and just did not seem to have his best stuff this week. There is talk that Tannehill will be back next week and that should end the short tenure as a starter for Osweiler. Barring another injury, he will remain on the bench the rest of the season.
2018 Week 7 vs DET (22 / 31 / 239 / 2 / 0 pass, 1 / 2 / 0 rush)
After setting a career high in yards last week, Osweiler followed it up with another solid performance. He did not turn the ball over and helped to move the chains with short passes to Amendola and Drake. He combined to throw 15 of his 31 passes to these two and included one of his touchdowns. The first touchdown pass came on a 5-yard fade route to Kenny Stills. The speedy receiver made his way to the corner of the end zone and Osweiler led him perfectly where only he could make a play on the ball. The pass led Stills so far that he ended up running into a security guard and knocking her over. The second pass was another perfectly thrown ball to Amendola for 34 yards. Osweiler rolled right and threw a ball just over a diving defender and before the crashing safety could get over to make the play. The biggest issue this week was the pass protection as Osweiler was sacked 4 times and lost 24 yards. There has been no timetable set for when Tannehill will return, but ownership has been quoted saying that it will be his team again when healthy. With the short week, do not be surprised to see Osweiler starting again against the Texans.
2018 Week 6 vs CHI (28 / 44 / 380 / 3 / 2 pass, 2 / 8 / 0 rush)
It was a surprise start for Osweiler and an even more surprising victory for the backup quarterback. With 3 touchdowns and nearly 400 yards passing, Osweiler looked like the solid quarterback that had landed him his big money deal previously. He got a lot of help from Albert Wilson and a few really big plays, but he had an all-around solid day behind center. His first touchdown was a 5-yard toss to Nick O'Leary. The big tight end leaked out into the flat after the play action and Osweiler hit him in stride, so he could outrun his man to the pylon for the touchdown. The second touchdown did not come until the 4th quarter and was a product of Albert Wilson more than anything else. It was a quick hitting play to the sideline that Wilson was able to turn up the field and follow his blockers for 43 yards and the touchdown. Osweiler got the ball out quickly and it gave Wilson the chance to get to the second level in a hurry. His third touchdown was of the 75-yard variety and again came to Wilson before a 2-pt conversion to Kenny Stills tied the game late. Osweiler did have back to back drives (albeit sandwiched by half time and a Bears touchdown) where he threw 2 interceptions. The first came after the Dolphins had recovered a Bears fumble and it was a chuck and pray play right before half. There Bears did not have enough time to do anything with the ball and it was just Osweiler trying to make something happen before heading to the locker room. After half, the Bears opened with a touchdown and Osweiler tried to answer. Unfortunately, he stared down his receiver and had the route jumped by the corner. If it weren't for Mike Gesicki it would have been returned for a touchdown. Osweiler got a lot of help from the ground game this week and Albert Wilson, it will be interesting to see if he gets a shot next week or if Tannehill will regain his starting spot.
2018 Week 4 vs NE (4 / 5 / 35 / 1 / 0 pass, 1 / 7 / 0 rush)
This was probably not the opportunity that Osweiler wanted but he got his shot in relief of Tannehill in the 4th quarter. Osweiler looked good but it all came in garbage time against a soft New England defense that was playing with a big lead. He found Frank Gore on a 3rd and 2 play in the red zone. Osweiler rolled right as Gore leaked out into the flat. Gore broke a tackle and then walked into the end zone. His 1 rush attempt for 7 yards earned him second on the team in rushing this week and that is not something Kenyan Drake owners want to see. Osweiler is not taking over for Tannehill and will be relegated to backup duties again next week against the Bengals.
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|14||vs New England Patriots|
|15||@ Minnesota Vikings|
|16||vs Jacksonville Jaguars|
|17||@ Buffalo Bills|