FBG says: Great matchup. Jacoby Brissett has had a tough time in charge of an injury-plagued Colts passing offense. While he did pass for over 300 yards last week, Brissett made some poor decisions with a couple of interceptions and has not passed for just two touchdowns in his past five games. This receiving group has been decimated from injuries, from the season-ending injuries to both Eric Ebron and Chester Rogers to the continued sidelining of T.Y. Hilton and Parris Campbell. Neither Hilton nor Campbell are likely to return this week, but do keep an eye on practice reports as having either back (especially Hilton) would lift the tide in this otherwise mediocre passing offense. This leaves Zach Pascal and Jack Doyle as the top targets, both of whom were quite productive last week but have proven to be highly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis.
Tampa Bay has consistently struggled against the pass this season, giving up the second-most passing yards per game (281.1) and passing touchdowns (27) on the year as they have faced more passing attempts per game (41.8) than any other defense. Whether looking at the entire season or the last five games, this defense has also given up the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. The past two weeks, however, have been better for the Buccaneers as this defense has forced three interceptions while allowing only one touchdown per game and even limiting the Jaguars to just 240 passing yards last week. A strong pass rush with 33 sacks has helped and will continue to benefit this defense, but not so much this week as the Colts have one of the better offensive lines in football. The cornerbacks for Tampa Bay have very little name recognition, but they have actually played up to par in direct coverage. It has been the safeties for this defense that have set them apart, especially considering they have allowed 10 passing plays of 40 or more yards. Therin lies what could be an issue for the Colts this week, as Jacoby Brissett has not been particularly adept at throwing deep this season while he may lack any viable deep threats if T.Y. Hilton is not back on the field. The Colts have the edge, but not as much as one might think against what has been an exploitable passing defense.