FBG says: Good matchup. Josh Allen has made minor strides as an NFL passer in his second season, but he's still not producing any fantasy gold with his arm. Allen is fully capable of tough downfield completions, but remains a serious work in progress on the delivery. Throwing just 32 passes a game, there's not much productivity in this attack (213 yards and 1.1 touchdown). Allen hasn't thrown an interception since Week 5, but has flirted with several. He still puts more than his share of erratic balls into the air. Of course, that's also sometimes a blessing for big-play wideout John Brown, who's quietly served as a solid fantasy starter. Brown hasn't reached 100 yards since Week 1, but he's yet to fall below 51 in any game as Allen's most consistent target by far. Slot specialist Cole Beasley flashes with a big play in most games, but beyond that, this attack is anyone's guess. Newcomer Zay Jones could work his way into the mix this week, and speedy Robert Foster saw his snaps double last Sunday. Last year, Allen and Foster connected for 425 yards over the final 6 weeks. Altogether, this certainly isn't a deep unit, and its ceiling isn't great with such low volume and efficiency. Beyond Brown, there's little fantasy payoff here.
On paper, the Miami pass defense has improved mightily over the past 5 weeks, allowing opponents just 6.6 yards per attempt on a 57% completion rate. But it must be noted that they built those numbers against a comically weak quarterback schedule: Case Keenum, Josh Allen, Mason Rudolph, Sam Darnold, and Brian Hoyer (without TY Hilton, even). In other words, they actually allowed that run of passers to meet (or even exceed) their low expectations. With top cornerback Xavien Howard on injured reserve, there's little proven talent or even continuity in the secondary. Eric Rowe and Ken Crawley have long been beatable down the field, and safety Bobby McCain remains a liability as well. Opponents have attacked the Dolphins on all levels; nine different pass-catchers have topped 75 yards through 9 games. In this matchup back in Week 7, John Brown turned 6 targets into 83 yards and a touchdown. With Howard on the shelf, it's hard to find any Dolphin who projects to slow him.