FBG says: Neutral matchup. Production from the Packers passing offense has slowed down over the second half of the season. Aaron Rodgers averaged 8.2 passing yards per attempt, 290.5 passing yards per game, and two passing touchdowns per game to rank as the fourth-best fantasy quarterback through his first eight games. Since Week 9, Rodgers has regressed to the 24th-ranked fantasy quarterback, averaging just 5.9 passing yards per attempt, 187 passing yards per game, and 1.4 touchdowns per game with no notable difference in his level competition between those splits. As with Rodgers goes the rest of this passing offense, as top receiver Davante Adams has inconsistently produced since returning from injury in Week 9. He continues to regularly lead the team in targets, but Adams has exceeded 64 yards just once in five games. He did score twice in the big game against the Giants and remains a focal point for Rodgers, so look for Adams to rebound soon.
This Chicago defense limited the Packers to just 203 passing yards and one touchdown back in Week 1, however, the Bears defense is certainly a different animal now than earlier in the year due to a number of key injuries. The most notable injury of late is the season-ending pectoral injury to leading tackler Roquan Smith, which is a big loss to the center of this defense. In addition, cornerback Prince Amukamara missed last week with a hamstring injury and appears unlikely to play in this one. This situation creates a significant advantage for Davante Adams, as he should see snaps against Kevin Toliver, who played quite poorly in his start last week. The pass rush for Chicago is always a threat with Khalil Mack and Leonard Floyd coming off the edges, but they have slowed as the season has progressed--notching just 13 sacks in their last nine games after opening the season with 17 sacks in their first four outings. Green Bay does have a strong offensive line, but they have yielded four or more sacks in two of the last three weeks and gave up five sacks to the Bears back in Week 1--so the door is open for this Bears defense to harass Rodgers to further complicate a tricky matchup.