Spotlight: Felix Jones

posted by Jason Wood on Aug 6th


Jason Wood's thoughts

The Cowboys have enviable depth at tailback. In a league where teams are more frequently using RB-by-committee, the Cowboys personify the upside of that approach. In Marion Barber, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice, Dallas has the ability to impose their will and slough off any potential injury concerns. The plug-and-play nature of this tailback trio is both a blessing and a curse. For the Cowboys and their fans, it means they don't have to alter their game plan if one of the guys is nicked up. But for fantasy owners, it means the potential for unpredictability week to week and possibly a maddening sense of inconsistency even if -- at the end of the year -- their fantasy numbers are right where you expected.

According to data from ProFootballFocus:

First Last Total Run Pass RunBlock PassBlock %Snaps
Marion Barber 581 228 217 39 97 49.5
Felix Jones 338 149 113 31 45 30.7
Tashard Choice 326 85 132 24 85 26.1

As you can see, all three backs were integral pieces to the Cowboys offense last year, and in fact none of them were on the field for even half of the team's snaps. It should also be pointed out that Felix Jones was only on the field a bit more than Tashard Choice. Why is this an important point to consider, you ask? Because the conventional wisdom this year is that Felix Jones breaks out as the feature back. Entering August, Jones is being drafted RB22 on average and 48th overall. Meanwhile Barber is going off the board 63rd overall and RB26. Choice is a relative afterthought, being drafted RB56 and 174th overall.

Analyzing Felix Jones - Undeniable Upside but RISKY

There's a lot to like about Felix Jones, not the least of which is the fact he's been the apple of Jerry Jones' eye since he was running wild at the University of Arkansas. When the Cowboys used their 1st overall pick on Jones two seasons ago, many thought his explosiveness, speed and penchant for big plays would vault him ahead of Marion Barber. That wasn't considered a negative on Barber, but more a belief that Jones was special. Two seasons into his NFL career and we're all still waiting for Jones' breakout. As a rookie, he only played in six games and totaled a whopping 32 touches for 276 yards. He was a complete non-factor, but optimists noted Jones' gaudy 8.9 yards per carry average on his 30 carries. Last year, he played in 14 games and averaged an NFL-leading 5.9 yards per carry. That's the good news. The bad news is he only had 116 carries and 19 receptions on the season, and finished the year as the 41st ranked fantasy back.

A lot of the enthusiasm for Jones comes from his late season heroics against Philadelphia. In the final regular season game, and then in the first playoff game, Jones ran wild against the Eagles to the tune of 31 carries for 239 yards and 2 TDs. But I think it's VERY dangerous to extrapolate two games as a new baseline. The fact is, for all of Jones abilities [and they are many], he's NEVER been a full-time running back. He played as part of a tandem in college with Darren McFadden. In college, while he was explosive (7.7 yards per rush!), he never had more than 154 carries in a season. So I ask, why would he now suddenly be in the position to tote the rock 15-20 times per game?

Analyzing Marion Barber - Underestimating Him a Huge MISTAKE

So what's the story with Barber? The Cowboys rewarded him with a huge contract two seasons ago, and yet it seems the media and fans have been counting the days until he's no longer a focal point of the offense. But why? He's been very effective in every season. Barber has never been a 1,000-yard rusher in five NFL seasons. So he too brings concerns about durability and whether he's really suited to be a full-time runner. Yet, he has had 200+ rushes in each of the last three seasons, and averaged 4.3 yards per rush over that span. Most importantly, he has scored 24 rushing TDs (at least 7 per season) over that span, not to mention 4 receiving TDs. Last year, he finished outside the Top 20 (RB21) but just barely, which ended a streak of Top 20 fantasy seasons (2006-2008).

On the surface, I could see how some might look at Barber as someone on the slight decline and then see Felix Jones' explosiveness and believe it only makes sense to flip flop their workloads. But that ignores THE CRITICAL REVELATION of this offseason: Marion Barber played with a torn quadriceps last year. The idea that a bruising NFL runner could stay on the field for months playing with a torn quad boggles the mind, but that's exactly what Barber accomplished in 2009. Which makes his "slippage" last year seem far less concerning. By all accounts, Barber is 100% healthy and has looked great in OTAs and early camp. Don't forget that as you try to decide whether either of these runners is worth your fantasy roster spot.

Why mess with a good thing? - Committee makes too much sense

I get that fantasy owners want certainty. We want one of these guys to magically evolve into a 250-300 touch player so we can have an elite player on our roster and not worry about a committee or time share. But OC Jason Garrett has no real incentive to give us what we want. ESPECIALLY when you consider that neither of these guys has proven capable of carrying a full workload. Meanwhile, they've BOTH proven that they are VERY effective in their current roles. Consider:

Top 50 RBs (2005-2009), Sorted by Fantasy Points per Touch

Rank First Last Rush RuYds RuTDs Recs RecYds RecTD FPTs FPT/Touch
1 Darren Sproles 199 887 6 87 880 9 266.7 0.933
2 Pierre Thomas 325 1,669 16 89 738 6 372.7 0.900
3 Felix Jones 146 951 6 21 129 0 144.0 0.862
4 Maurice Jones-Drew 840 3,922 48 201 1,785 5 888.7 0.854
5 LaDainian Tomlinson 1,518 6,588 84 238 1,928 9 1,438.1 0.819
6 Najeh Davenport 207 855 8 39 434 4 200.9 0.817
7 Justin Forsett 115 619 4 41 350 1 126.9 0.813
8 Jamaal Charles 256 1,478 7 67 571 2 258.9 0.802
9 Jonathan Stewart 403 1,966 20 26 186 1 341.2 0.795
10 T.J. Duckett 284 1,020 20 12 133 0 235.3 0.795
11 Chris Johnson 607 3,229 23 93 763 3 555.2 0.793
12 Kevin Faulk 284 1,378 6 214 1,786 7 394.3 0.792
13 Brandon Jacobs 775 3,457 40 58 543 3 658.0 0.790
14 DeAngelo Williams 755 3,853 30 107 855 4 674.8 0.783
15 Adrian Peterson 916 4,484 40 83 829 1 777.3 0.778
16 Ahmad Bradshaw 253 1,324 9 28 261 1 218.5 0.778
17 Leonard Weaver 148 679 2 75 687 4 172.6 0.774
18 Corey Dillon 408 1,549 25 37 328 1 343.7 0.772
19 Brian Westbrook 969 4,374 27 307 2,670 19 980.4 0.768
20 Correll Buckhalter 340 1,668 9 93 911 3 329.9 0.762
21 Tashard Choice 156 821 5 36 317 0 143.8 0.749
22 Jerious Norwood 371 1,991 7 96 903 3 349.4 0.748
23 Marion Barber 927 3,984 43 163 1,231 6 815.5 0.748
24 Leon Washington 369 1,781 13 121 962 2 366.1 0.747
25 Reggie Bush 486 1,939 17 260 1,932 11 554.1 0.743
26 Michael Turner 761 3,652 33 18 139 0 577.1 0.741
27 Mike Anderson 294 1,259 13 31 292 1 239.1 0.736
28 Chris Wells 176 793 7 12 143 0 135.6 0.721
29 Steve Slaton 397 1,714 12 93 799 5 353.3 0.721
30 Joseph Addai 860 3,526 33 157 1,230 9 732.7 0.720
31 Heath Evans 129 469 4 38 311 3 120.0 0.719
32 Mewelde Moore 374 1,615 6 150 1,327 6 375.3 0.716
33 Tim Hightower 286 997 18 96 658 0 273.5 0.716
34 Michael Pittman 265 1,290 6 119 1,007 1 271.7 0.708
35 Frank Gore 1,167 5,553 32 224 1,831 7 972.4 0.699
36 Shaun Alexander 839 3,533 38 42 209 2 614.2 0.697
37 Stephen Davis 218 723 12 17 135 1 163.8 0.697
38 Ricky Williams 573 2,535 21 80 575 3 454.0 0.695
39 Jerome Harrison 269 1,308 6 57 402 3 225.0 0.690
40 Kenny Watson 216 956 8 78 590 0 202.6 0.689
41 Ronnie Brown 925 4,075 31 151 1,249 2 741.1 0.689
42 Tiki Barber 686 3,534 14 113 995 2 548.9 0.687
43 Ray Rice 362 1,792 7 111 975 1 324.7 0.686
44 Jason Snelling 170 719 5 38 348 1 142.7 0.686
45 Larry Johnson 1,280 5,538 45 132 1,093 4 961.3 0.681
46 Ryan Moats 202 833 8 19 127 1 150.0 0.679
47 LeRon McClain 285 1,105 12 49 319 2 226.4 0.678
48 Sammy Morris 421 1,883 14 71 592 0 331.5 0.674
49 Laurence Maroney 580 2,432 21 40 409 1 416.1 0.671
50 Rashard Mendenhall 261 1,166 7 27 278 1 192.4 0.668

Positives

  • Jones has always been the king of the big play, averaging almost 8 yards per rush in college and well over 5 yards per carry in the pros. He's 3rd among RBs over the last five years in fantasy points per touch
  • Jones' physical abilities and Jerry Jones' preference for him assure that the team will give him an opportunity to earn more touches
  • The Cowboys have an elite offense and are committed to a balanced attack

Negatives

  • Jones has never been a workhorse, including college and is frequently on the injury report
  • Jones' ADP is higher than Barbers and assumes a big leap forward in his total fantasy production
  • Flozell Adams was an effective run blocker and it's unclear whether Doug Free or Alex Barron are capable of matching his tenacity

Final thoughts

Felix Jones is an electric player, one of those guys who seems capable of going the distance any time he gets the ball. But those players can be misleading in terms of total fantasy value. On a per touch basis, Jones has been elite. But that's also because he hasn't been asked to handle the tough carries where RBs have to grind it out and earn their keep. If would be one thing if Marion Barber was clearly on the decline and an aging vet nearing the end of his run; but he's only 27, has a relatively light workload so far in his own right, and managed 4+ yards per rush and 7 TDs last year in spite of running on a torn quad. I see no reason why Dallas won't continue to split the touches and ALSO keep Tashard Choice in the mix. Whereas Jones was on the field for about a 1/3 of the Cowboys snaps last year, I could see him push for 40%-45% this year. That's enough to make him a viable fantasy RB3, but I still have trouble seeing him as a real breakout star.


Quotations from the message board thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

MrTwo94 said:

Gotta love Felix's ypc but given his inability to stay on the field it is just really hard to project 200 carries for him, much less anything above that. This team can run the ball, so if he can stay on the field and keep Barber/Choice off of it, then the sky is the limit. I don't see him getting 12 TD, though. Why would they not put Barber in on short yardage duties? He is a beast and Felix is an injury risk. I like the upside here, but there are a lot of WR I'm targeting in his ADP range so it'll be hard to justify the risk associated with him. Not just injury but the fact that there is so much talent at his position.

Iwannabeacowboybaby! said:

The three headed monster, a fantasy nightmare. All 3 backs are productive in their own way but unless one of them get injured, they all cut into each others numbers in a big way.

At the end of last season, everyone could see how effective Felix Jones was, it appeared as if he was coming into his own right in front of our eyes. It's easy to think that what we saw at the end of last season should translate right over into the beginning of this season. That could be the case but we haven't seen Felix Jones carry the ball 15 to 20 times per game for 16 games and be effective all season long yet.

Marion Barber definately looked like he lost a step. I thought he looked good VERY early in the season last year but then pulled a hammy or leg muscle. He played much of last season but I thought he never looked the same. He didn't break that first tackle and was much easier to bring down. I'm unsure if he's just lost a step or will he rebound from a nagging injury that slowed him down. Even if he was slown down, the pounding his body takes due to his running style will most likely reoccur at some point during the season.

T. Choice- Does a lot of things well and will be used as a specialty back in the Wildcat and will give both of the above Rb's a breather when he's needed. I don't see T. Choice as a fantasy contender unless one or both of the above are out of the lineup. However, both of these guys have been banged up before and if that's the case, T. Choice is good enough to be a top 10 weekly RB if he's THE guy in Dallas for the week.

LTF said:

Carry to carry, I think Felix Jones is a top 4-5 back in the NFL. If he stays healthy and gets carries, he'll put up big time numbers. I thought he was the best running back to come out of that draft (even though that title belongs to Chris Johnson) but I never liked McFadden over Jones. Felix has that elite extra gear and is an actual running back (as opposed to a great athlete playing RB). Granted, they're in significantly different situations (although McFadden does play behind a good run blocking o-line), but I always thought Felix would be the better pro and I think this is the season he officially breaks out. I don't think he'll be a huge fantasy star though just because of the lack of goal line work and how they'll still give choice some carries, but he'll be a great get for whoever picks him up in their leagues this season and will prove to be a very valuable dynasty piece going forward as well IMO.


Felix Jones projections

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