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LATE CUTS
The Top 10 could be the Top 12 or Top 15 every week. Here are some short points and late cuts that didn't make the featured segments:
- Although Alex Collins is the best healthy back on the roster (and potentially regardless of health), Javorius Allen looks quicker this year. While additional training could be the source, confidence in executing the offense is often the greatest reason young players look quicker compared to their early-career portfolio.
- Stefon Diggs looks healthy and his claims that this year's groin injury is nowhere near as bad as last appear valid.
- Stay tuned for this week's Gut Check. You'll be reading more about Tre McBride, Dede Westbrook, and potentially one other young receiver with potential to surprise down the stretch.
- Jack Doyle is clearly Jacoby Brissett's most reliable option. Although the Bengals allowed a career-high total in receptions for Doyle, many of Doyle's targets were tight-window throws. Doyle will never be a flashy athlete, but he does what he's supposed to do with a greater degree of consistency than Eric Ebron and Jared Cook.
Roll the tape.
1. Wilson-Watson: candidate for game of the year
There are some fantasy-worthy thoughts about this excellent game that dispel, confirm, or validate thoughts our community has about these teams, its players and schemes.
First, give up on the Seahawks ground game. It's not happening this year. If it does, then I'd prefer to be surprised without any of these backs on my roster. If I can't ditch them, I'll try not to start them until they face a pathetic run defense. And I'm not sure the 49ers and Cowboys qualify to that extreme.
Second, check out this fantastic release of DeAndre Hopkins against Richard Sherman. I love the thoroughness of his upper-body techniques. Many receivers hurry through the movements and don't maintain the position through its window of usefulness. Hopkins milks his arm position for all its worth.
Hopkins is an every-week stud (old news) who cannot be benched unless Watson gets hurt. This has less to do with Watson's arm and accuracy and more to do with his conceptual feel for the game, his play-making skills as an off-rhythm passer (a play extender), and the fact that the Texans fit an offense around him that the reserve quarterbacks could not execute in a believable fashion.
The player who benefits most from Watson's game when it's on-rhythm is Will Fuller. The pair connected repeatedly in this game, including a 59-yard score where Thomas underestimated Fuller's speed by a beat or two.
One of the most useful plays of this type tested the Seattle defense three ways before Watson even dropped back to pass. Although this target goes to Hopkins, there were multiple throws to Fuller on corner routes that had an impact in this game.
The use of Bruce Ellington is terrific on these plays. The Texans literally took a Jarvis Landry swing pass that had this pre-snap action and molded it into a whole new series of plays. All of the personnel involved in the fakes is believable use and executed in a rhythm that allows Watson to make a timing throw against a defense that has been disrupted multiple ways.
Fuller had a big day, but I do not expect every-week fantasy starter production from him this year. Even so, he makes a good WR3 with WR1 upside and he'll be a must-use Weeks 13 and 14 against the Titans and 49ers.
Watson threw multiple interceptions in this game and they came in situations where he either stared down veteran defenders (like most rookies do) or where he had to force a play late in the game. However, there were numerous impressive throws, including this target while moving to his left.
Watson is an obvious QB1 down the stretch even if he commits rookie mistakes. His offense is more obviously fitted to his skills than others, but it should not be an excuse to denigrate his NFL talent any more than we should argue that Tom Brady could out-produce either Watson or Wilson in Houston or Seattle's existing situations.
Speaking of Wilson, he carried this offense with his usual display of scrambling and underrated arm talent.
Here's a 56-yard throw from the pocket to the opposite numbers with pressure arriving in his grill...
This final throw to Paul Richardson Jr that set up the game-winning score, was a display of developing trust in Richardson to be the better athlete than the defender. It's very similar to Ben Roethlisberger's throw to Antonio Brown in the first half of the Lions game where Cris Collinsworth characterizes the decision the same way.
If not for an illegal block by Thomas Rawls, Richardson had three touchdowns in this game. Tyler Lockett may earn more touches, but Richardson has more impact per touch and he's earning a greater volume of trust throws from Wilson based on the target difficulty.
Wilson and the receiving game is getting hot, and I think Pete Carroll and company are coming to the conclusion that they better work to emphasize Wilson the way the Saints made Brees its focal point during his prime. If I'm right, this game will be one of the turning points.
2. do not sleep on Robby Anderson's continued development
We all saw last year that Anderson had excellent vertical speed, good hands, and underrated toughness at the catch point. It's why he emerged as a surprise starter during his rookie year with the Jets. This summer, it didn't appear that Anderson was making enough progress to take the next step. Combine his performance in training camp with the addition of several new receivers, and there was speculation that Anderson had fallen out of favor.
Individual development isn't as linear as it may appear on a bar graph or box score. Anderson's development is a good example. Last year, Anderson only shined against weaker defenses—his combined 14 catches, 240 yards, and 2 touchdowns against the Colts, 49ers, and Dolphins was his best three-week effort of his rookie year. On the surface, we could say the same about this year.
However, there have been glimpses of Anderson displaying greater skill against man coverage. This week, Anderson got the best of Desmond Trufant on a go route with a pair of head fakes within the first five yards of the line of scrimmage that a receiver rarely executes in succession.
Anderson also ran by Robert Alford, earning a second big play with a diving effort up the sideline.
Like another No. 11 I like (Marvin Jones), Anderson's strengths as a vertical route runner require a level of rapport with his quarterback. Until the Jets find a franchise quarterback, Anderson may remain a boom-bust fantasy option. However, Anderson and McCown could be gaining enough rapport that Anderson heats up during the final weeks of the year. The remaining schedule isn't as kind as it has been for the Jets, but Atlanta didn't seem like the team that Anderson would beat twice on vertical plays, either.
Anderson isn't a must-have player but if you're searching for discount options as end-of-the-roster upside stashes in leagues with at least 12 teams and 20 roster spots, he's one I'd have on my short list.
3. frank gore's knowledge (that Marlon Mack must learn)
Maron Mack scored this weekend, and it will bolster the surface-level arguments that the rookie should earn more of Gore's touches down the stretch. It was a pretty play, and it allowed Mack to do what he does best: run fast.
If the Colts pack it in and tell Gore that he's no longer wanted as its starter, (and look for Gore to ask for his release, he's a warrior who won't take kindly to giving up) then I understand the decision to use Mack as the every-down back even if I think it would be ill-advised.
Mack's big plays are an asset, but he is not ready to keep the Colts' offense on schedule with the frequency that Gore delivers as an interior runner, pass protector, and receiver. Mack takes too long to read the line of scrimmage, and his slower conceptual recognition of the play developing around him often renders his speed and quickness useless when he's not operating in space. As I describe below, a player's footwork is a window into what the player is seeing and processing.
Mack is processing late. In contrast, Gore anticipates the location of the defensive push and adjusts accordingly.
Mack often begins his read of the line of scrimmage closer to the line of scrimmage than he should. Watch the length of Mack's stride as he takes the exchange from Brissett. If he was reading the line earlier, he would have seen the penetration earlier, cut the length of his stride, and had access to the backside lane around right end to bounce the run into the open field.
Gore has a far more refined game than Mack between the tackles. Gore knows how to avoid defenders with multiple, subtle movements that eliminate good angles from defenders in tight spaces.
Mack's recognition of the line of scrimmage is not as consistent. There are good reps from Mack on tape, like the one below, but it doesn't occur nearly as often or with the variety of situations as Gore's film.
Gore's pass protection is also better. If it weren't apparent from Gore's usage and Mack's college tape, the Colts staff validated this analysis when it told the broadcast staff that one of the reasons that Mack's role is limited is his lack of experience as a pass protector.
Gore is good enough that he can stop an aggressive defender without contact. Watch Gore set up quickly and establish an angle that's so good, Vontez Burfict gives up on the effort before contact.
Regardless of how you feel about Burfict's penchant for cheap shots, he's known league-wide as a smart player (exhibit No. 1,343,634,234 that brains and wisdom aren't handed out as a matching set). Burfict sees immediately that Gore has the angle to run the linebacker into the line or pop Burfict in the chops without much to gain from it. Burfict slows down and engages minimally, hoping Brissett buys time and gives the linebacker a second-chance to beat Gore with a new angle of approach.
The early returns on Mack are positive, but nothing he has done is unexpected based on his college career. His athletic ability will only elevate his game if the Colts can find greater success in the passing game with multiple players who stretch the field and create mismatches or set the stage for good scheming like the screen pass that led off this segment. Otherwise, it will be incumbent on Mack to develop better footwork and that comes with practice and tape study focused on him understanding the variety of blocking schemes and situations he'll encounter at the line.
Frank Gore is a treasure trove of this knowledge. I hope Mack is doing more than watching reps and paying attention to him in position meetings. If I were Mack, I'd offer to pay Gore to train with him and get extended lessons on his training techniques on and off the field.
Unless Gore gets hurt, don't look for Mack to overtake Gore as the pace-setter for this offense in 2017. The stats and the film are aligned on this one.
4. Atlanta's offense: Better, but barely good enough
The Falcons did a better job of getting Mohamed Sanu and Austin Hooper involved on Sunday. Atlanta began the day using Hooper from the slot with repeated success during the second drive of the game.
I also liked that Atlanta varied that slot usage with dual wing back alignments. It gave a slightly different look than a pro-style set where the tight end is one of the three receivers or a two-tight end look that is more decidedly run or play-action bootleg in use. Here's Hooper earning a corner route from this alignment.
It's a good route with an effective rip move to work past the shallow defender. However, Hooper left his feet to catch a target that didn't require him to jump. The decision cost him at least that one step he needed to reach the front pylon on the play.
Leaving one's feet unnecessarily is a common issue with young receivers, backs, and tight ends, and it's also an indicator of what the player is processing on the field. Hooper didn't gauge the ball accurately or didn't feel comfortable about the prospect of extending his frame to catch the ball in an area where he might take a hit. Knowing his portfolio of tape, I'd say the issue is most likely the former.
Unfortunately, Hooper also left his feet unnecessarily later in the half on a target in the red zone where he ran a good crossing route past the defensive end and linebacker only to drop the target that arrived at chest level. Even so, Hooper scored on the play after the corner route shown above and he deserves credit for working open after Matt Ryan was hesitant to deliver the ball to Hooper when he first worked open.
I find fault with Ryan at the beginning of this play. The more I watch it, I see Hooper breaking wide-open to the left and Ryan unwilling to stick his feet in the ground and throw the ball to the open spot. I think Ryan was reacting to the pressure working through Devonta Freeman. It was happening directly in his sightline and it forced his eyes away from Hooper's open break at the point he should have released the ball.
By the time Ryan finishes his retreat from the pressure, Hooper is covered. To Ryan and Hooper's credit, they work well together on the adjustment to the end line. Hooper feels the open spot and works free with a smart second effort and Ryan anticipates the adjustment well.
However, we need to see more from this pair and it might begin with Ryan not reacting so fast to the potential of pressure in his face in a compressed area. Realistically, that's not going to happen. Ryan isn't afraid of pressure—and he has moments of excellence navigating it—interior pressure is the kind that disrupts him the most.
This play to Sanu is another strong example of Ryan and a receiver creating a second-chance opportunity in the red zone.
Excellent job by Sanu and Ryan pic.twitter.com/cqAX4k2kMR
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 29, 2017
This play notwithstanding, Sanu was a bigger impact between the 20s on third-down plays drawn up to exploit soft spots in the Jets' zone. I also have concerns about the Falcons relying on second-chance red zone plays as a reliable scoring process.
Although I liked Sunday's increased targeting and usage of Hooper, the offense still lacks pre-snap movement, creative misdirection, and creative alignments of Tevin Coleman. If the Jets scored more than three points off two Ryan fumbles of snaps deep in Atlanta's own territory, the Falcons likely lose this game by a touchdown and the offense's incremental progress might not have been as encouraging to the casual eye.
5. where the Panthers have gone wrong with McCaffrey
I understand that the Panthers have issues running the ball downhill. But the way that Carolina is attempting to work around it is trash. Check out this perimeter run to Jonathan Stewart.
Stewart is at his best as a downhill runner but the Panthers have placed him in a position where he's too close to the line to get an optimal view of the linebackers and the play design demands this big, strong runner to rely more on quickness and agility with a limited runway against a light and fast defense. Usually, I see the Panthers use McCaffrey as the wing/fullback on this pistol play. Although McCaffrey's quickness is a better match for it, the same alignment limitations and predictability of it only make the play moderately more successful.
Carolina is leaning too hard on this perimeter action and it isn't even doing it well. Here's McCaffrey working from the slot across the formation as Cam Newton calls for the snap. The timing between the snap and exchange is a total tip-off for the Buccaneers linebackers to win this play.
McCaffrey is 2 steps outside the tackle when the center snaps the ball. He gets the ball four steps later. In contrast, the Lions' ball carrier is no more than a step outside the tackle and he gets the exchange on his third step.
It's a small difference but if you read this column weekly, you know that one step often means the difference between being open, missing a tackle, and turning a three-yard gain into a breakaway touchdown. The Panthers' line woes, its perimeter play design, and execution are limiting this ground game's effectiveness to Cam Newton option plays and short-yardage dives. Fantasy owners will be hoping that Greg Olsen's imminent return will do more to open up the ground game.
6. o.J. Howard's integration continues its positive trend
Despite this weekend's box score saying otherwise, Howard's integration into the Buccaneers offense is taking a positive trend upward. As seen last week, the Buccaneers scouted against its own tendencies and installed two plays that played off its use of Howard as a run blocker.
This weekend, Tampa Bay played off Howard as a pass protector.
If not for Luke Kuechley reaching Howard a step before the tight end finished his acceleration, this reception becomes a huge play. The Panthers trio of Kuechley, Thomas Davis, and Shaq Thompson is one of the best pass coverage linebacking corps in the NFL.
The Jets, Dolphins, Falcons (twice), and Lions are the four teams the Buccaneers face over the next five weeks that will be vulnerable to Howard on plays we've seen Tampa employ with the tight end during the past two games.
7. juju Smith-Schuster is a stretch-run fantasy darling
I'm a fan of Martavis Bryant's football talent, and he's a different receiver than JuJu Smith-Schuster. However, Bryant handed the Steelers the opportunity to insert Smith-Schuster into the lineup and keep him there.
Bryant wants to be the primary option. He knows that he can't be that on a team with Antonio Brown, but he still wants to earn more targets. It's a common reaction for players who've flashed Pro-Bowl physical talent.
Even if it's not true, there's logic to Bryant's perception that Ben Roethlisberger is shutting him out of the offense because of the issues they left unresolved this spring and summer. Whether Bryant is correct, his reactions have lacked maturity and it's putting him in the position of the bad guy either way. The best thing he could have done was to shut up, be a good soldier, and bide his time to prove himself elsewhere.
Instead, the Steelers were given the convenient opportunity to bench a player who played well enough to stay on the field in favor of a rookie who could be a better fit for what the offense does. Smith-Schuster is a better blocker, a better route runner inside the hash, and has greater potential as an option who can play multiple receiver positions.
These qualities make Smith-Schuster that Hines Ward-type who can create big plays but also deliver the body blows that set up his teammates in a more believable fashion. The first play of the Lions game is a good example of Smith-Schuster's skill as a blocker contributing to a pass play that ultimately targets him as the receiver.
Smith-Schuster is also a budding route technician who should only get better with age. This stem below is a fantastic display of eye discipline to turn the off-coverage cornerback the wrong way.
Smith-Schuster is a versatile receiver who can get deep with his quickness and maintain his speed to create yards after the catch. Bryant is the better athlete, but wait until you see Smith-Schuster earn Roethlisberger's confidence on fade routes. He's rugged, good near the boundary, and displays good hand-eye coordination.
Bryant will have a part, but Smith-Schuster's draft-day acquisition confirmed my worst fears when Bryant and Sammie Coates Jr argued on Twitter about who the rookie was replacing: Both if they kept up this kind of immature behavior in public.
8. Ball security and the NFL
Readers often ask me about my scouting methods. They want to glean tips about what's important. Usually, it comes in the form of "Can you give me a magic pill that will give me the knowledge, skill, and perspective of someone who has spent over a decade doing this 60 hours a week?"
It's layers of information that creates a good scouting report. It's also understanding what is addressable and what is not. One of those addressable areas is ball security.
In college football, there are 4-6 players (at best) on any given defensive unit who possess the awareness and accuracy to find the ball and punch it loose on any given play. In the NFL, every defensive player has developed and refined this skill.
This is a great reach by Hunter from an odd angle to separate the ball from Crowell. But let's not confine this to Crowell, even the great Le'Veon Bell is susceptible on any given play. Last night was a good example.
Ezekiel Elliott also lost the ball on his first carry this weekend. Although it was his first lost fumble of the year, it was also the product of a defender's awareness and accuracy at locating the ball and knocking it free.
Some running backs have better track records of ball security than others, and there are some NFL coaches with differing levels of tolerance for these mistakes. Regardless, we all inherently understand (even if we didn't realize it) that a back's emotional resilience and willingness to adjust fast to the challenges of NFL defenses are more important than the early-career volume of fumbles.
Otherwise, we wouldn't have been so amazed that Kareem Hunt performed so well in the season opener after fumbling away his first NFL carry. Despite a heavy workload of 856 career touches, Hunt never fumbled at Toledo.
It's why I expect rookie running backs to fumble the football regardless of their past history of ball security. It's also why interviews and tape examples of emotional resiliency in action (responding to mistakes without losing focus) are even more important than the act.
Keep these in mind as you consider the potential of running backs with early-career mistakes like ball security. If you don't, you may write off the wrong players.
9. I'd (still) take Matthew Stafford over Matt Ryan
Ryan is a good NFL quarterback. If he can remain in an offense with elite surrounding talent, he may compile Hall of Fame numbers. If he wins a Super Bowl, he'll have that golden ticket to Canton. Other than Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, and maybe Dak Prescott. I would not argue with anyone for choosing Ryan over any other quarterback in the league.
Even so, if I had the Falcons personnel with Kyle Shanahan as the offensive coordinator and I could choose between Ryan and Stafford, I'd take the Lions quarterback.
It's not because I like gunslingers. Stafford is underrated because of his lack of surrounding talent, and I think he does more with less. Stafford makes throws that I don't see Ryan make nearly as often—if ever. Many of these targets were potential difference-making plays where his receivers failed him and not in that Jay Cutler way where Cutler finds the windows but his throws demand his receivers take punishment.
Some of these differences between Stafford and Ryan are minuscule, but they make a difference. Both quarterbacks can throw moving to their left. However, Stafford has greater consistency delivering with pinpoint accuracy over a longer range of the field.
This was also a patient use of the pocket before he flushed. This same edge in arm strength, accuracy, and consistency shows up with bucket throws versus Cover 2 where a quarterback must display just the right combination of trajectory and arm velocity. As Cris Collinsworth noted on this play, the Steelers didn't do anything; Stafford beat the coverage with his arm talent.
On paper, I'd argue that Golden Tate and Marvin Jones are arguably better than every receiver on the Falcons roster not named Julio Jones, Atlanta's overall balance of skill and line talent afford Ryan easier opportunities. There will be people who want to show me all of the tough plays Ryan has made. I've seen every one of them since he was drafted. I've set up this subject in a way that will make Falcons fans feel like I'm slighting Ryan, but the purpose is to stage Stafford in a light that may help others (non-Falcon fanboys and girls) see the Lions quarterback as an excellent talent on a team that frequently lets him down.
These are the types of plays Stafford has experienced with his surrounding talent even when Calvin Johnson was playing. The combination of inconsistent skill talent (Calvin Johnson excluded), a lack of run-pass balance, and unimaginative playcalling that often forces the Lions offense to leverage its weaknesses instead of its strengths.
Like I said, I'd take Ryan over most quarterbacks in the league, but I think Stafford has been in a worse situation than most—including Ryan—could hack. I would love to see the Lions get this right one day before Stafford's skill deteriorates. He remains a dynasty hold for me even if I would put Prescott and Wilson as my target "premium buys" for startups.
10. FRESH FISH
Fantasy football is a cruel place. We're always searching for that weakest link. While we don't want anyone facing the wrath of Hadley, we'd love nothing more than having our players face an opponent whose game has come unglued on the field.
In the spirit of "The Shawshank Redemption," here is my short list of players and/or units that could have you chanting "fresh fish" when your roster draws the match-up.
- Raiders Running Backs: It wasn't the offensive line or the defense, but the Oakland running backs who put this game out of reach in favor of the Bills. DeAndre Washington had the ball knocked out on a pass that resulted in a return for a score and Jalen Richard lost a fumble on a punt return. Cordarrelle Patterson nearly lost a fumble on a punt return as well.
- Travis Benjamin: Although he scored on a beautifully run go route later in the game, he reversed field inside the Los Angeles five on a punt return and New England dropped him for a safety.
- Tyrell Williams: He got knocked out of bounds before making a catch inbounds up the left sideline and it nullified a potential big play. He also committed an illegal pick that nullified a Benjamin touchdown in the third quarter. The next play, he dropped a wide-open corner route.
- Damien Williams: A bad blitz pickup wrecked one play and he fell down on a third-down screen pass against a blitz that was a terrific play call. If he stays upright, Wiliams had room to score.
As always, the league is moving fast. Don't blink...
