Yesterday, we published the first installment in my True Fantasy Points (TFP) series, which evaluated quarterback projections. (Click here if you missed it.) In Part 2 today, I'm moving on to running backs. To calculate these TFP projections, we need a few things. First, we need each player's data for the following rate stats:
- Yards per Carry (YPC)
- Touchdowns per Carry (RuTD%)
- Receptions per Route Run (RPRR)
- Yards per Route Run (YPRR)
- Touchdowns per Route Run (TDPRR)
TRUE STATS THROUGH 2016
Below are the actual stat rates and the "true" stat rates for the 60 running backs who are a) playing for the same team as last season, and b) projected for more than 100 "opportunities" this season -- defined as rushing attempts plus routes run (sorted by True YPC ranking; Top 3 of each category in bold; Bottom 3 in italics):
| ACTUAL RATES | TRUE RATES | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLAYER | TM | YPC | RK | TD% | RK | RPRR | RK | YPRR | RK | TDPRR | RK | YPC | RK | TD% | RK | RPRR | RK | YPRR | RK | TDPRR | RK |
| LeSean McCoy | BUF | 4.95 | 9 | 3.66% | 16 | 16.2% | 22 | 1.28 | 28 | 0.59% | 22 | 4.50 | 1 | 3.20% | 10 | 16.2% | 22 | 1.29 | 30 | 0.59% | 22 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | DAL | 5.07 | 8 | 4.66% | 7 | 12.1% | 50 | 1.37 | 23 | 0.38% | 34 | 4.49 | 2 | 3.47% | 4 | 13.6% | 52 | 1.35 | 22 | 0.55% | 37 |
| Jordan Howard | CHI | 5.21 | 7 | 2.38% | 35 | 9.7% | 58 | 1.00 | 47 | 0.33% | 39 | 4.49 | 3 | 2.75% | 37 | 12.0% | 59 | 1.16 | 48 | 0.53% | 41 |
| Ty Montgomery | GB | 6.26 | 1 | 4.17% | 11 | 16.9% | 20 | 1.24 | 30 | 0.00% | 45 | 4.46 | 4 | 3.02% | 18 | 16.5% | 20 | 1.29 | 31 | 0.50% | 51 |
| Jalen Richard | OAK | 5.92 | 2 | 1.20% | 52 | 23.2% | 3 | 1.55 | 17 | 1.60% | 4 | 4.46 | 5 | 2.70% | 40 | 19.1% | 6 | 1.39 | 20 | 0.70% | 10 |
| Chris Thompson | WAS | 5.51 | 4 | 2.83% | 31 | 18.3% | 16 | 1.25 | 29 | 1.01% | 10 | 4.45 | 6 | 2.88% | 30 | 17.7% | 15 | 1.28 | 33 | 0.72% | 6 |
| Jay Ajayi | MIA | 4.72 | 10 | 2.91% | 28 | 11.9% | 51 | 0.85 | 54 | 0.00% | 45 | 4.44 | 7 | 2.90% | 28 | 13.5% | 53 | 1.09 | 56 | 0.47% | 56 |
| DeAndre Washington | OAK | 5.37 | 6 | 2.30% | 36 | 14.8% | 33 | 1.00 | 45 | 0.00% | 45 | 4.44 | 8 | 2.82% | 34 | 15.6% | 32 | 1.24 | 40 | 0.53% | 43 |
| C.J. Anderson | DEN | 4.56 | 15 | 3.79% | 14 | 12.3% | 48 | 1.04 | 44 | 0.49% | 27 | 4.43 | 9 | 3.25% | 8 | 13.1% | 56 | 1.14 | 52 | 0.55% | 33 |
| Spencer Ware | KC | 4.63 | 12 | 3.15% | 24 | 13.1% | 44 | 1.52 | 18 | 0.67% | 17 | 4.43 | 10 | 2.97% | 22 | 14.2% | 44 | 1.42 | 17 | 0.61% | 17 |
| Darren Sproles | PHI | 4.63 | 11 | 4.70% | 6 | 18.3% | 15 | 1.50 | 19 | 0.37% | 35 | 4.42 | 11 | 3.36% | 6 | 17.9% | 14 | 1.45 | 16 | 0.50% | 50 |
| Thomas Rawls | SEA | 4.61 | 13 | 2.73% | 32 | 11.2% | 55 | 0.88 | 53 | 0.51% | 26 | 4.42 | 12 | 2.85% | 32 | 13.5% | 54 | 1.15 | 49 | 0.58% | 27 |
| C.J. Prosise | SEA | 5.73 | 3 | 3.33% | 21 | 21.0% | 5 | 2.57 | 1 | 0.00% | 45 | 4.42 | 13 | 2.91% | 27 | 17.7% | 16 | 1.58 | 7 | 0.55% | 35 |
| LeVeon Bell | PIT | 4.45 | 18 | 2.87% | 29 | 16.9% | 21 | 1.49 | 20 | 0.37% | 36 | 4.41 | 14 | 2.88% | 31 | 16.8% | 19 | 1.46 | 15 | 0.47% | 54 |
| Kenyan Drake | MIA | 5.42 | 5 | 6.06% | 2 | 15.5% | 29 | 0.90 | 52 | 0.00% | 45 | 4.41 | 15 | 3.04% | 15 | 15.9% | 26 | 1.26 | 36 | 0.56% | 31 |
| Mark Ingram | NO | 4.45 | 20 | 3.36% | 20 | 17.2% | 19 | 1.17 | 37 | 0.46% | 29 | 4.41 | 16 | 3.17% | 12 | 17.0% | 18 | 1.21 | 42 | 0.53% | 42 |
| Jonathan Stewart | CAR | 4.43 | 22 | 3.00% | 27 | 11.4% | 53 | 0.92 | 50 | 0.45% | 31 | 4.41 | 17 | 2.97% | 23 | 11.9% | 60 | 1.00 | 59 | 0.51% | 48 |
| Dion Lewis | NE | 4.58 | 14 | 1.77% | 45 | 19.7% | 9 | 1.79 | 10 | 0.74% | 15 | 4.41 | 18 | 2.73% | 38 | 18.3% | 8 | 1.54 | 11 | 0.62% | 15 |
| Darren McFadden | DAL | 4.47 | 16 | 1.14% | 53 | 15.3% | 31 | 1.22 | 33 | 0.00% | 45 | 4.41 | 19 | 2.40% | 56 | 15.6% | 31 | 1.28 | 34 | 0.47% | 55 |
| Tevin Coleman | ATL | 4.45 | 19 | 4.39% | 9 | 13.4% | 41 | 1.80 | 9 | 1.22% | 5 | 4.40 | 20 | 3.24% | 9 | 14.5% | 40 | 1.53 | 12 | 0.71% | 8 |
| Derrick Henry | TEN | 4.45 | 17 | 4.55% | 8 | 15.9% | 25 | 1.67 | 12 | 0.00% | 45 | 4.40 | 21 | 3.13% | 14 | 16.0% | 24 | 1.40 | 18 | 0.55% | 36 |
| Shane Vereen | NYG | 4.45 | 21 | 1.06% | 55 | 19.2% | 11 | 1.61 | 15 | 1.10% | 7 | 4.40 | 22 | 2.67% | 43 | 18.2% | 11 | 1.48 | 14 | 0.72% | 7 |
| DeMarco Murray | TEN | 4.39 | 23 | 3.07% | 26 | 15.1% | 32 | 1.07 | 42 | 0.85% | 13 | 4.40 | 23 | 2.95% | 25 | 15.4% | 34 | 1.19 | 45 | 0.66% | 13 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | TB | 4.34 | 26 | 1.55% | 47 | 9.6% | 59 | 0.72 | 58 | 0.00% | 45 | 4.39 | 24 | 2.67% | 42 | 13.2% | 55 | 1.14 | 51 | 0.52% | 45 |
| Ameer Abdullah | DET | 4.34 | 27 | 1.24% | 49 | 15.4% | 30 | 1.23 | 32 | 1.03% | 8 | 4.39 | 25 | 2.57% | 49 | 15.7% | 30 | 1.29 | 32 | 0.66% | 12 |
| Bilal Powell | NYJ | 4.37 | 24 | 1.88% | 43 | 15.8% | 26 | 1.19 | 34 | 0.28% | 41 | 4.39 | 26 | 2.44% | 54 | 15.9% | 27 | 1.22 | 41 | 0.43% | 58 |
| David Johnson | ARI | 4.36 | 25 | 5.74% | 3 | 15.9% | 24 | 1.84 | 8 | 1.10% | 6 | 4.39 | 27 | 3.99% | 1 | 15.9% | 25 | 1.68 | 4 | 0.80% | 4 |
| Jonathan Williams | BUF | 3.48 | 57 | 3.70% | 15 | 3.3% | 60 | 0.00 | 60 | 0.00% | 45 | 4.38 | 28 | 2.92% | 26 | 14.2% | 45 | 1.21 | 43 | 0.57% | 28 |
| Wendell Smallwood | PHI | 4.05 | 39 | 1.30% | 48 | 9.8% | 57 | 0.90 | 51 | 0.00% | 45 | 4.38 | 29 | 2.73% | 39 | 14.4% | 41 | 1.25 | 37 | 0.56% | 32 |
| Orleans Darkwa | NYG | 4.01 | 40 | 5.63% | 4 | 13.5% | 39 | 1.15 | 39 | 0.00% | 45 | 4.38 | 30 | 3.16% | 13 | 15.5% | 33 | 1.30 | 28 | 0.56% | 30 |
| Carlos Hyde | SF | 4.32 | 28 | 3.13% | 25 | 11.4% | 54 | 0.65 | 59 | 0.68% | 16 | 4.38 | 31 | 2.98% | 20 | 12.7% | 58 | 0.93 | 60 | 0.62% | 16 |
| Rob Kelley | WAS | 4.19 | 33 | 3.57% | 18 | 11.2% | 56 | 0.77 | 57 | 0.93% | 11 | 4.38 | 32 | 3.03% | 16 | 14.2% | 43 | 1.18 | 46 | 0.62% | 14 |
| Paul Perkins | NYG | 4.07 | 38 | 0.00% | 59 | 11.5% | 52 | 1.24 | 31 | 0.00% | 45 | 4.38 | 33 | 2.48% | 52 | 14.1% | 47 | 1.30 | 29 | 0.53% | 44 |
| Duke Johnson Jr | CLE | 4.16 | 35 | 0.56% | 58 | 18.5% | 14 | 1.70 | 11 | 0.33% | 40 | 4.38 | 34 | 2.40% | 55 | 18.0% | 13 | 1.58 | 8 | 0.49% | 52 |
| Malcolm Brown | LAR | 2.55 | 60 | 0.00% | 59 | 18.2% | 17 | 2.00 | 3 | 0.00% | 45 | 4.38 | 35 | 2.80% | 35 | 16.3% | 21 | 1.37 | 21 | 0.58% | 26 |
| Andre Ellington | ARI | 4.27 | 30 | 2.26% | 40 | 17.6% | 18 | 1.57 | 16 | 0.47% | 28 | 4.38 | 36 | 2.66% | 45 | 17.3% | 17 | 1.49 | 13 | 0.55% | 38 |
| Robert Turbin | IND | 3.49 | 56 | 14.89% | 1 | 15.7% | 27 | 1.08 | 41 | 0.60% | 20 | 4.38 | 37 | 3.68% | 2 | 15.9% | 28 | 1.24 | 38 | 0.59% | 21 |
| Devonta Freeman | ATL | 4.29 | 29 | 4.13% | 12 | 20.2% | 7 | 1.63 | 14 | 0.77% | 14 | 4.37 | 38 | 3.45% | 5 | 19.5% | 5 | 1.54 | 10 | 0.67% | 11 |
| James White | NE | 3.71 | 51 | 2.86% | 30 | 20.9% | 6 | 1.96 | 6 | 1.79% | 1 | 4.37 | 39 | 2.89% | 29 | 19.7% | 4 | 1.72 | 2 | 0.98% | 2 |
| Isaiah Crowell | CLE | 4.27 | 31 | 3.58% | 17 | 12.1% | 49 | 1.04 | 43 | 0.18% | 44 | 4.37 | 40 | 3.20% | 11 | 13.0% | 57 | 1.14 | 50 | 0.45% | 57 |
| Zach Zenner | DET | 3.75 | 47 | 3.81% | 13 | 13.3% | 42 | 1.38 | 22 | 0.00% | 45 | 4.36 | 41 | 3.02% | 17 | 14.8% | 39 | 1.34 | 23 | 0.52% | 47 |
| Jerick McKinnon | MIN | 4.16 | 36 | 1.23% | 50 | 19.1% | 12 | 1.18 | 36 | 0.63% | 18 | 4.36 | 42 | 2.35% | 58 | 18.3% | 9 | 1.24 | 39 | 0.60% | 18 |
| Chris Ivory | JAX | 3.75 | 48 | 2.56% | 33 | 14.4% | 35 | 1.34 | 26 | 0.00% | 45 | 4.36 | 43 | 2.84% | 33 | 15.3% | 35 | 1.33 | 26 | 0.52% | 46 |
| Damien Williams | MIA | 3.40 | 59 | 3.45% | 19 | 22.7% | 4 | 2.01 | 2 | 1.74% | 2 | 4.36 | 44 | 2.96% | 24 | 20.2% | 3 | 1.66 | 5 | 0.84% | 3 |
| Terrance West | BAL | 3.99 | 42 | 2.09% | 41 | 19.8% | 8 | 1.34 | 25 | 0.52% | 23 | 4.35 | 45 | 2.68% | 41 | 18.1% | 12 | 1.33 | 25 | 0.58% | 23 |
| Giovani Bernard | CIN | 4.20 | 32 | 2.40% | 34 | 18.6% | 13 | 1.66 | 13 | 0.60% | 21 | 4.35 | 46 | 2.66% | 44 | 18.2% | 10 | 1.58 | 6 | 0.59% | 20 |
| Lamar Miller | HOU | 4.00 | 41 | 1.87% | 44 | 12.4% | 47 | 0.79 | 55 | 0.40% | 33 | 4.35 | 47 | 2.60% | 48 | 13.9% | 50 | 1.09 | 57 | 0.55% | 34 |
| Charles Sims | TB | 3.89 | 44 | 0.90% | 57 | 19.5% | 10 | 1.92 | 7 | 1.02% | 9 | 4.35 | 48 | 2.39% | 57 | 18.6% | 7 | 1.69 | 3 | 0.73% | 5 |
| Matt Forte | NYJ | 3.73 | 50 | 3.21% | 22 | 15.5% | 28 | 1.36 | 24 | 0.52% | 24 | 4.33 | 49 | 2.97% | 21 | 15.8% | 29 | 1.34 | 24 | 0.58% | 24 |
| Jeremy Hill | CIN | 4.13 | 37 | 4.35% | 10 | 13.1% | 43 | 0.98 | 49 | 0.21% | 43 | 4.33 | 50 | 3.62% | 3 | 13.9% | 49 | 1.11 | 53 | 0.47% | 53 |
| Branden Oliver | LAC | 3.63 | 53 | 1.58% | 46 | 25.3% | 1 | 1.97 | 5 | 0.52% | 25 | 4.33 | 51 | 2.60% | 47 | 21.0% | 2 | 1.58 | 9 | 0.58% | 25 |
| Devontae Booker | DEN | 3.52 | 54 | 2.30% | 36 | 13.8% | 38 | 1.18 | 35 | 0.45% | 30 | 4.33 | 52 | 2.77% | 36 | 14.8% | 38 | 1.26 | 35 | 0.57% | 29 |
| Doug Martin | TB | 4.19 | 34 | 2.27% | 39 | 13.8% | 37 | 1.16 | 38 | 0.23% | 42 | 4.33 | 53 | 2.52% | 51 | 14.2% | 42 | 1.21 | 44 | 0.43% | 59 |
| Theo Riddick | DET | 3.45 | 58 | 1.22% | 51 | 24.2% | 2 | 1.99 | 4 | 1.70% | 3 | 4.32 | 54 | 2.56% | 50 | 22.6% | 1 | 1.79 | 1 | 1.03% | 1 |
| T.J. Yeldon | JAX | 3.86 | 45 | 0.96% | 56 | 14.5% | 34 | 1.00 | 46 | 0.34% | 38 | 4.32 | 55 | 2.28% | 59 | 14.9% | 37 | 1.11 | 54 | 0.50% | 49 |
| Jeremy Langford | CHI | 3.51 | 55 | 4.76% | 5 | 14.3% | 36 | 1.47 | 21 | 0.35% | 37 | 4.31 | 56 | 3.34% | 7 | 15.0% | 36 | 1.39 | 19 | 0.54% | 40 |
| Todd Gurley | LAR | 3.93 | 43 | 3.16% | 23 | 13.4% | 40 | 1.08 | 40 | 0.00% | 45 | 4.30 | 57 | 3.01% | 19 | 14.1% | 46 | 1.18 | 47 | 0.41% | 60 |
| Melvin Gordon | LAC | 3.74 | 49 | 2.28% | 38 | 16.1% | 23 | 1.33 | 27 | 0.44% | 32 | 4.28 | 58 | 2.65% | 46 | 16.1% | 23 | 1.33 | 27 | 0.54% | 39 |
| Frank Gore | IND | 3.81 | 46 | 1.91% | 42 | 13.0% | 45 | 0.98 | 48 | 0.90% | 12 | 4.27 | 59 | 2.46% | 53 | 13.7% | 51 | 1.10 | 55 | 0.70% | 9 |
| Alfred Blue | HOU | 3.64 | 52 | 1.11% | 54 | 12.8% | 46 | 0.79 | 56 | 0.62% | 19 | 4.26 | 60 | 2.17% | 60 | 13.9% | 48 | 1.05 | 58 | 0.60% | 19 |
We can use this table to identify the best "true" all-around running backs, the best runners at the position, and the best receivers at the position. With respect to the all-around profile, there are only two running backs that rank in the Top 30 (or better) across all "true" stat categories: LeSean McCoy and David Johnson. That said, McCoy and Johnson differ in their "true" strengths within said profile, as the former seems most adept at running for yardage, while the latter seems most adept at scoring touchdowns.
Given that McCoy and Johnson are two of the Top 3 running backs off the board in fantasy drafts this season, you might be wondering, "Where's Le'Veon Bell in this all-around talk?" Although simply opening your eyes while a Steelers game is on makes it obvious how great of an all-around skill set Bell possesses, from a "true" stat perspective, his bugaboo is scoring touchdowns, especially as a receiver. To wit, his 1,350 routes run in Pittsburgh is beyond the stabilization point for TDPRR (i.e., 1,063 routes), and yet he's only scored 5 receiving touchdowns.
Moving onto specific skill sets, Ezekiel Elliott and C.J Anderson are the only two running backs -- besides the aforementioned McCoy -- to rank among the Top 10 in both True YPC and True TD%. Anderson, especially, is a surprise in this regard, as Denver has brought in running back after running back the last two of offseasons to (what sure seems like) replace him.
As far as the best receiving back goes, Theo Riddick is the undisputed champion heading into 2017, ranking No. 1 in all three "true" stat categories. The scuttlebutt of late has surrounded Ameer Abdullah's ascension to bellcow status, but one has to imagine that a competent offensive coaching staff wouldn't leave Riddick's receiving acumen to rot away on the bench.
In addition to Riddick, only James White and Damien Williams also rank in the Top 5 of all three "true" receiving stat categories. After his performance in Super Bowl LI, no one -- especially no one playing fantasy football -- should be surprised by White's inclusion here; which is why he's currently being drafted in the 11th round despite having next-to-no value as a runner in New England's crowded, situation-dependent backfield. Williams, on the other hand, is basically free right now in PPR redrafts and has a much clearer, shorter path to a three-down gig.
TRUE PROJECTIONS FOR 2017
The table below displays David Dodds' projections, my TFP projections, and the difference between the two. In reading it, you should pay primary attention to the "DIFF" column, as that's what tells you which running backs are most overrated, most underrated, or somewhere in between.
| DODDS STATS | TRUE STATS | POINTS | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLAYER | TM | RUYDS | RUTD | REYDS | RETD | RUYDS | RUTD | REYDS | RETD | DODDS | TFP | DIFF |
| Ty Montgomery | GB | 803 | 6 | 332 | 2 | 750 | 5 | 313 | 1 | 161.5 | 143.9 | +17.6 |
| Devonta Freeman | ATL | 932 | 8 | 467 | 3 | 919 | 7 | 451 | 2 | 205.9 | 192.2 | +13.7 |
| LeSean McCoy | BUF | 1095 | 9 | 372 | 2 | 1057 | 8 | 391 | 2 | 212.7 | 200.6 | +12.1 |
| C.J. Prosise | SEA | 206 | 2 | 371 | 2 | 203 | 1 | 350 | 1 | 81.7 | 70.6 | +11.1 |
| Duke Johnson Jr | CLE | 369 | 2 | 507 | 3 | 363 | 2 | 499 | 2 | 117.6 | 107.6 | +10.0 |
| Melvin Gordon | LAC | 1040 | 8 | 442 | 2 | 1112 | 7 | 396 | 2 | 208.2 | 201.9 | +6.3 |
| Jay Ajayi | MIA | 1178 | 8 | 255 | 2 | 1168 | 8 | 276 | 1 | 203.3 | 197.2 | +6.1 |
| Tevin Coleman | ATL | 571 | 5 | 399 | 2 | 572 | 4 | 402 | 2 | 139.0 | 133.9 | +5.1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | DAL | 960 | 7 | 216 | 1 | 898 | 7 | 237 | 1 | 165.6 | 160.9 | +4.7 |
| Mark Ingram | NO | 738 | 5 | 288 | 2 | 728 | 5 | 284 | 1 | 144.6 | 140.1 | +4.5 |
| Jalen Richard | OAK | 389 | 2 | 166 | 1 | 348 | 2 | 167 | 1 | 73.5 | 69.2 | +4.3 |
| Ameer Abdullah | DET | 649 | 4 | 251 | 2 | 672 | 4 | 254 | 1 | 126.0 | 124.0 | +2.0 |
| Darren McFadden | DAL | 534 | 5 | 155 | 0 | 573 | 3 | 172 | 1 | 98.9 | 97.0 | +1.9 |
| Bilal Powell | NYJ | 748 | 4 | 380 | 2 | 747 | 4 | 399 | 1 | 148.8 | 148.0 | +0.8 |
| Spencer Ware | KC | 878 | 8 | 258 | 1 | 930 | 6 | 290 | 1 | 167.6 | 166.9 | +0.7 |
| Theo Riddick | DET | 250 | 2 | 484 | 3 | 298 | 2 | 467 | 3 | 103.4 | 103.3 | +0.1 |
| Derrick Henry | TEN | 632 | 4 | 155 | 1 | 634 | 5 | 148 | 1 | 108.7 | 108.7 | 0.0 |
| Darren Sproles | PHI | 345 | 2 | 352 | 2 | 349 | 3 | 356 | 1 | 93.7 | 93.8 | -0.1 |
| Chris Thompson | WAS | 230 | 1 | 353 | 2 | 223 | 1 | 339 | 2 | 76.3 | 76.4 | -0.1 |
| DeMarco Murray | TEN | 987 | 7 | 308 | 2 | 1011 | 7 | 317 | 2 | 183.5 | 183.9 | -0.4 |
| LeVeon Bell | PIT | 1215 | 8 | 607 | 2 | 1192 | 8 | 645 | 2 | 242.2 | 242.7 | -0.5 |
| Jordan Howard | CHI | 1238 | 7 | 298 | 1 | 1190 | 7 | 310 | 1 | 201.6 | 202.3 | -0.7 |
| Isaiah Crowell | CLE | 1015 | 7 | 300 | 1 | 974 | 7 | 325 | 1 | 179.5 | 180.4 | -0.9 |
| DeAndre Washington | OAK | 394 | 2 | 180 | 1 | 373 | 2 | 199 | 1 | 75.4 | 76.5 | -1.1 |
| Dion Lewis | NE | 361 | 2 | 149 | 1 | 375 | 2 | 152 | 1 | 69.0 | 70.2 | -1.2 |
| James White | NE | 217 | 1 | 299 | 2 | 227 | 2 | 297 | 2 | 69.6 | 71.5 | -1.9 |
| Jerick McKinnon | MIN | 242 | 1 | 145 | 1 | 262 | 1 | 142 | 1 | 50.7 | 53.0 | -2.3 |
| Andre Ellington | ARI | 147 | 1 | 126 | 0 | 153 | 1 | 121 | 0 | 33.3 | 35.6 | -2.3 |
| Chris Ivory | JAX | 222 | 2 | 70 | 0 | 244 | 2 | 78 | 0 | 41.2 | 43.6 | -2.4 |
| Shane Vereen | NYG | 280 | 1 | 304 | 2 | 286 | 2 | 309 | 2 | 76.4 | 78.9 | -2.5 |
| Doug Martin | TB | 663 | 5 | 175 | 1 | 735 | 4 | 195 | 1 | 119.8 | 122.9 | -3.1 |
| Charles Sims | TB | 173 | 1 | 187 | 1 | 196 | 1 | 200 | 1 | 48.0 | 51.2 | -3.2 |
| Terrance West | BAL | 754 | 6 | 252 | 1 | 827 | 5 | 265 | 1 | 142.6 | 146.7 | -4.1 |
| Damien Williams | MIA | 86 | 0 | 149 | 1 | 105 | 1 | 148 | 1 | 29.5 | 33.9 | -4.4 |
| Jonathan Williams | BUF | 337 | 3 | 83 | 0 | 373 | 2 | 102 | 0 | 60.0 | 65.3 | -5.3 |
| Zach Zenner | DET | 220 | 2 | 82 | 0 | 258 | 2 | 91 | 0 | 42.2 | 47.6 | -5.4 |
| Giovani Bernard | CIN | 451 | 2 | 332 | 2 | 479 | 3 | 347 | 1 | 102.3 | 108.0 | -5.7 |
| Paul Perkins | NYG | 629 | 4 | 164 | 1 | 679 | 4 | 194 | 1 | 109.3 | 115.0 | -5.7 |
| Alfred Blue | HOU | 174 | 1 | 62 | 0 | 196 | 1 | 75 | 0 | 29.6 | 35.7 | -6.1 |
| Thomas Rawls | SEA | 480 | 4 | 109 | 0 | 531 | 3 | 120 | 1 | 82.9 | 89.1 | -6.2 |
| Robert Turbin | IND | 351 | 3 | 170 | 1 | 394 | 3 | 179 | 1 | 76.1 | 82.4 | -6.3 |
| Kenyan Drake | MIA | 299 | 1 | 61 | 0 | 287 | 2 | 63 | 0 | 42.0 | 48.5 | -6.5 |
| Lamar Miller | HOU | 1085 | 7 | 241 | 2 | 1166 | 7 | 267 | 1 | 186.6 | 193.2 | -6.6 |
| Malcolm Brown | LAR | 148 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 175 | 1 | 101 | 0 | 29.8 | 36.8 | -7.0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | TB | 527 | 4 | 130 | 0 | 571 | 3 | 156 | 1 | 89.7 | 97.8 | -8.1 |
| Jeremy Langford | CHI | 145 | 1 | 69 | 0 | 172 | 1 | 84 | 0 | 27.4 | 35.6 | -8.2 |
| T.J. Yeldon | JAX | 251 | 1 | 234 | 1 | 285 | 2 | 246 | 1 | 60.5 | 68.8 | -8.3 |
| Carlos Hyde | SF | 888 | 6 | 190 | 1 | 920 | 6 | 204 | 1 | 149.8 | 158.2 | -8.4 |
| Rob Kelley | WAS | 729 | 6 | 148 | 0 | 789 | 5 | 158 | 1 | 123.7 | 132.4 | -8.7 |
| C.J. Anderson | DEN | 698 | 5 | 221 | 1 | 731 | 5 | 243 | 1 | 127.9 | 136.7 | -8.8 |
| Orleans Darkwa | NYG | 288 | 2 | 87 | 0 | 329 | 2 | 92 | 0 | 49.5 | 58.7 | -9.2 |
| Wendell Smallwood | PHI | 240 | 1 | 77 | 0 | 263 | 2 | 87 | 0 | 37.7 | 47.1 | -9.4 |
| Frank Gore | IND | 694 | 5 | 225 | 1 | 791 | 5 | 241 | 2 | 127.9 | 139.6 | -11.7 |
| Branden Oliver | LAC | 304 | 1 | 89 | 0 | 346 | 2 | 83 | 0 | 45.3 | 57.2 | -11.9 |
| Jeremy Hill | CIN | 430 | 3 | 61 | 0 | 476 | 4 | 64 | 0 | 67.1 | 79.6 | -12.5 |
| David Johnson | ARI | 1113 | 11 | 675 | 4 | 1164 | 11 | 792 | 4 | 268.8 | 281.5 | -12.7 |
| Devontae Booker | DEN | 274 | 1 | 120 | 0 | 303 | 2 | 128 | 1 | 45.4 | 58.2 | -12.8 |
| Jonathan Stewart | CAR | 668 | 5 | 85 | 0 | 750 | 5 | 100 | 1 | 105.3 | 118.3 | -13.0 |
| Todd Gurley | LAR | 1053 | 8 | 277 | 1 | 1161 | 8 | 292 | 1 | 187.0 | 200.0 | -13.0 |
| Matt Forte | NYJ | 647 | 4 | 240 | 1 | 715 | 5 | 254 | 1 | 118.7 | 132.9 | -14.2 |
The "DIFF" column may speak for itself, but here are two underrated running backs and two overrated running backs that I think are worthy of some extra statistical detail and discussion:
Underrated: Todd Gurley
Almost all of the discrepancy between Dodds' projection for Gurley and that of TFP's is due to YPC. Last season, Gurley ran for 3.18 YPC after posting 4.83 YPC in 2015. There's only one way to go after that precipitous of a drop. And indeed, both systems believe something resembling a return to rookie Gurley is in the offing. The difference is in how much of a return. At 1,053 yards over 270 projected carries, Gurley has an implied YPC of 3.90 according to Dodds. As we saw in the earlier table, however, Gurley's True YPC is even higher (4.30), which means those same 270 carries should produce over 100 more rushing yards than Dodds projects.
Underrated: David Johnson
Yesterday, I listed Aaron Rodgers as underrated despite him being projected as the No. 1 quarterback. Well, Johnson is the Rodgers of running backs. And as was the case with Rodgers, the biggest statistical reason is due to yardage in the passing game. Specifically, Johnson's 1.68 True YPRR ranked 4th in the earlier table, but Dodds' projection implies a 16th-ranked YPRR of 1.43. Over the course of 470 projected routes, that quarter-yard discrepancy translates to a discrepancy of over 100 receiving yards.
A big reason why the larger YPRR is more likely to be correct is because Johnson has the highest True Average Depth of Target (aDOT) of any running back in the league by far: His is 3.97, which is over a full yard higher than second-place Andre Ellington. The fact that Johnson's teammate ranks that high as well is no coincidence, as aDOT is an indicator of a receiver's usage pattern within their offensive scheme. Bruce Arians digs the long ball, so much so that even running backs are targeted farther downfield than most of the league. Put this all together, and one realizes that Johnson's YPRR is somewhat inoculated against a value as low as Dodds projects.
Overrated: Ty Montgomery
Although Dodds projects better totals than all four of Montgomery's underlying "true" stats suggest, the main culprit is YPC. Through two years in Green Bay, Montgomery has a completely unsustainable 5.89 YPC. Dodds regresses that down to a more reasonable 4.78. TFP regresses it further down to 4.46 because Montgomery's only carried the ball 80 times, while YPC takes nearly 2,000 carries to stabilize as a reliable indicator of "true" skill.
There's an elephant in the room, of course: Montgomery has a nebulous role in a hybrid position. It could be that he really is a 5.00-YPC runner. It could be that defenses catch up to him, and he ends up even worse than a 4.50-YPC runner. It could be that he's only keeping a seat warm for Jamaal Williams and will be back in more of a wide receiver role sooner than later. Thankfully, this is exactly the kind of situation TFP was built for. When there's maximum uncertainty, just regress everything to the mean to be safe. And with a costly ADP of 42 right now, I think it's best to play this one safe.
Overrated: Devonta Freeman
Last year, I listed Freeman as overrated. Got that one wrong, so fool me twice, shame on me, right? Wrong. It turns out that Freeman outscored both Dodds' and TFP's projections because of one thing: Instead of regressing towards the mean, his TD% jumped from 3.64% through 2015 to an otherworldly 4.85% in 2016. As seen earlier, this was enough to raise his actual TD% with the Falcons to 4.13% and raise his True TD% to 3.45%. Same as last year, both Dodds and I have regressed Freeman's TD% downward toward the league average (his down to 3.81%), and once again Dodds projects 8 rushing touchdowns while TFP projects 7. If Freeman bucks the touchdown math again, I guess it will be shame on me.
