The Rundown: FantasyScore Week 14

A weekly guide to FantasyScore's Salary Cap and Draft-and-Go contests.

As always, what you'll encounter in this article is a list of probabilities for each position reflecting the most and least likely players to achieve value on FantasyScore (either for cash games or GPPs).

quarterbacks

Below are the quarterbacks with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

MOST LIKELY TO ACHIEVE VALUE
NAME TM SALARY AVG P(CASH) NAME TM SALARY MAX P(GPP)
Johnny Manziel CLE 4600 19.5 80.7% Johnny Manziel CLE 4600 21.5 68.3%
Blaine Gabbert SFO 4800 19.2 76.7% Blaine Gabbert SFO 4800 21.2 62.1%
Matt Hasselbeck IND 5800 20.0 65.2% Matt Hasselbeck IND 5800 21.0 36.8%
LEAST LIKELY TO ACHIEVE VALUE
NAME TM SALARY AVG P(CASH) NAME TM SALARY MAX P(GPP)
Drew Brees NOR 8200 20.0 23.7% Ben Roethlisberger PIT 8400 22.1 3.9%
Aaron Rodgers GNB 8400 21.6 28.7% Aaron Rodgers GNB 8400 22.3 4.1%
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 8400 21.6 29.1% Drew Brees NOR 8200 21.9 4.7%

If I were to have to choose between one of the Top 2 quarterback values this week, it would be Manziel. That's because, although both Cleveland's and San Francisco's pass defense rank in the Bottom 5 when it comes to allowing 40+-yard receptions, Manziel is more of the gunslinger type -- a quarterback whose stats depend on big plays. Gabbert may have hit a 71-yard game-winning touchdown last week, but that's not his M.O.

Among "least likely" quarterbacks, Roethlisberger is my pick to defy the odds, mainly because Cincinnati's best cornerback, Adam Jones, is listed as doubtful on the injury report. Between Dre Kirkpatrick and Troy Hill, Steelers wideouts should be able to roam free, and so Roethlisberger should be able to have no trouble finding them.

running backs

Below are the running backs with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

MOST LIKELY TO ACHIEVE VALUE
NAME TM SALARY AVG P(CASH) NAME TM SALARY MAX P(GPP)
C.J. Spiller NOR 2000 12.6 90.1% C.J. Spiller NOR 2000 15.2 86.8%
Juwan Thompson DEN 2000 9.7 79.8% Juwan Thompson DEN 2000 11.4 73.1%
Melvin Gordon III SDG 2100 10.1 79.4% Tim Hightower NOR 2000 10.8 69.9%
Tim Hightower NOR 2000 8.7 73.9% Matt Jones WAS 2800 14.5 67.4%
Matt Jones WAS 2800 11.4 70.4% Melvin Gordon III SDG 2100 10.7 66.3%
LEAST LIKELY TO ACHIEVE VALUE
NAME TM SALARY AVG P(CASH) NAME TM SALARY MAX P(GPP)
DeMarco Murray PHI 4800 6.1 6.6% DeMarco Murray PHI 4800 7.3 4.6%
Ryan Mathews PHI 6700 9.8 10.6% Ryan Mathews PHI 6700 11.9 7.9%
Antonio Andrews TEN 4300 7.4 16.4% Charcandrick West KAN 6900 13.3 10.2%
Eddie Lacy GNB 5200 9.0 16.8% Antonio Andrews TEN 4300 8.8 12.1%
Giovani Bernard CIN 6400 11.2 17.5% Giovani Bernard CIN 6400 13.9 14.4%

Given that he needs only 6.0 points to achieve cash game value and 8.0 points to achieve tournament value, C.J. Spiller is a must-play this week. On the flip side, Philadelphia's running backs are the worst values of the week, primarily because the better of the two, i.e., Murray, has been shipped to the bottom of the depth chart.

Also on the bottom of the table, somewhat curiously, is Charcandrick West. With Spencer Ware vulturing goal line carries, it's difficult to see how West could possibly score the 26.7 points necessary to achieve GPP value.

wide receivers

Below are the wide receivers with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

MOST LIKELY TO ACHIEVE VALUE
NAME TM SALARY AVG P(CASH) NAME TM SALARY MAX P(GPP)
Brian Hartline CLE 2000 10.0 81.9% Brian Hartline CLE 2000 11.8 75.5%
Brandon Coleman NOR 2000 9.9 81.2% Malcom Floyd SDG 2300 13.1 73.5%
Malcom Floyd SDG 2300 11.2 80.4% Brandon Coleman NOR 2000 11.1 71.9%
Roddy White ATL 2100 9.6 77.2% Chris Givens BAL 2000 10.6 69.1%
Chris Givens BAL 2000 9.1 76.7% Roddy White ATL 2100 10.9 67.8%
DeVante Parker MIA 2800 12.2 74.4% Javontee Herndon SDG 2000 10.3 67.3%
Kenny Britt STL 2000 8.1 70.2% Keshawn Martin NWE 2300 11.1 63.0%
Jeremy Butler BAL 2000 8.0 69.4% DeVante Parker MIA 2800 13.1 60.9%
Keshawn Martin NWE 2300 8.8 66.9% Seth Roberts OAK 2200 9.7 56.9%
Anquan Boldin SFO 4000 14.9 64.9% Terrance Williams DAL 2500 11.0 56.7%
LEAST LIKELY TO ACHIEVE VALUE
NAME TM SALARY AVG P(CASH) NAME TM SALARY MAX P(GPP)
Tavon Austin STL 5700 8.6 11.1% Tavon Austin STL 5700 9.4 5.8%
Rueben Randle NYG 5300 9.2 16.6% Rueben Randle NYG 5300 9.4 7.5%
Dez Bryant DAL 7600 13.8 18.5% Steve Johnson SDG 5100 9.2 7.9%
Jordan Matthews PHI 6300 11.7 19.7% Kendall Wright TEN 4400 8.3 9.1%
Pierre Garcon WAS 5200 9.7 19.9% Pierre Garcon WAS 5200 9.9 9.4%
Randall Cobb GNB 6700 13.0 21.8% Randall Cobb GNB 6700 13.6 11.5%
Emmanuel Sanders DEN 6900 14.1 24.7% Jordan Matthews PHI 6300 12.9 11.8%
Michael Crabtree OAK 6300 13.0 25.4% Michael Crabtree OAK 6300 13.1 12.3%
Sammy Watkins BUF 6700 13.9 25.6% Demaryius Thomas DEN 7900 16.9 13.4%
Demaryius Thomas DEN 7900 16.5 26.1% Dez Bryant DAL 7600 16.8 14.6%

Among the wide receivers most likely to achieve value, I'm hitching my wagon to either Devante Parker or Anquan Boldin. Last week, the former played 90% of Miami's offensive snaps, and the Dolphins-Giants game has the fourth-highest over-under of Week 13. Meanwhile, Boldin is the clear go-to wide receiver for the 49ers, especially since Blaine Gabbert ascended to starting quarterback: The last three games, Boldin's averaged just over 10 targets per game. And, in fantasy football, opportunity is king.

tight ends

Below are the tight ends with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

MOST LIKELY TO ACHIEVE VALUE
NAME TM SALARY AVG P(CASH) NAME TM SALARY MAX P(GPP)
Will Tye NYG 1700 9.7 88.1% Blake Bell SFO 1700 12.6 87.2%
Jared Cook STL 2100 8.4 69.9% Will Tye NYG 1700 10.0 76.2%
Austin Seferian-Jenkins TAM 2600 9.7 65.3% Ladarius Green SDG 2100 10.1 63.3%
LEAST LIKELY TO ACHIEVE VALUE
NAME TM SALARY AVG P(CASH) NAME TM SALARY MAX P(GPP)
Antonio Gates SDG 7300 11.1 10.5% Antonio Gates SDG 7300 12.1 5.2%
Tyler Eifert CIN 7700 12.1 11.5% Gary Barnidge CLE 6900 12.8 7.8%
Gary Barnidge CLE 6900 12.7 18.4% Tyler Eifert CIN 7700 14.4 8.0%

Aside from his bye, this table has consistently featured Will Tye over the past five weeks (rhyme intended). And yet, I (once again) won't endorse him in cash games. Rather, Austin Seferian-Jenkins fits the bill. Tampa Bay eased AS-J into action last week, but the gloves are coming off; which coincides perfectly with a matchup against a Saints pass defense that ranks dead last in coverage agaisnt tight ends (per DVOA). That said, Tye's fine to play in GPPs.

defenses

Below are the defenses with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

MOST LIKELY TO ACHIEVE VALUE
NAME TM SALARY AVG P(CASH) NAME TM SALARY MAX P(GPP)
San Francisco 49ers SFO 1200 9.9 97.7% San Francisco 49ers SFO 1200 10.2 93.2%
Chicago Bears CHI 1500 10.2 94.7% Chicago Bears CHI 1500 10.2 85.3%
Jacksonville Jaguars JAC 1500 10.1 94.5% Jacksonville Jaguars JAC 1500 10.1 84.8%
LEAST LIKELY TO ACHIEVE VALUE
NAME TM SALARY AVG P(CASH) NAME TM SALARY MAX P(GPP)
Denver Broncos DEN 3300 11.4 60.9% Denver Broncos DEN 3300 11.5 39.3%
Carolina Panthers CAR 3300 11.5 61.6% Carolina Panthers CAR 3300 11.6 39.9%
Cincinnati Bengals CIN 2600 9.1 61.9% Cincinnati Bengals CIN 2600 9.2 40.4%

Of the three high-value defenses, I'm inclined to lean on the Bears, primarily because Washington is god-awful on the road. In five such games this season, they've been outscored 162-86, have turned the ball over 14 times, and have amassed a total of 224 rushing yards.

week 14 draft lists

Finally, to supplement the statistics-based strategies I recommended earlier in the season, here are the VBD draft lists you should use for FantasyScore's Draft-N-Go (DNG) games:

2-PERSON DNGS5-PERSON DNGS8-PERSON DNGS
NAMEPOSTmNAMEPOSTmNAMEPOSTm
Odell Beckham Jr WR NYG Odell Beckham Jr WR NYG Odell Beckham Jr WR NYG
Antonio Brown WR PIT Antonio Brown WR PIT Antonio Brown WR PIT
DeAndre Hopkins WR HOU DeAndre Hopkins WR HOU DeAndre Hopkins WR HOU
Seattle Seahawks DEF SEA Brandon Marshall WR NYJ Brandon Marshall WR NYJ
Devonta Freeman RB ATL Alshon Jeffery WR CHI Alshon Jeffery WR CHI
Brandon Marshall WR NYJ A.J. Green WR CIN Devonta Freeman RB ATL
DeAngelo Williams RB PIT Julio Jones WR ATL DeAngelo Williams RB PIT
Alshon Jeffery WR CHI Devonta Freeman RB ATL A.J. Green WR CIN
A.J. Green WR CIN DeAngelo Williams RB PIT Julio Jones WR ATL
Julio Jones WR ATL Allen Robinson WR JAC Allen Robinson WR JAC
David Johnson RB ARI Delanie Walker TE TEN David Johnson RB ARI
Delanie Walker TE TEN Greg Olsen TE CAR Calvin Johnson WR DET
Cam Newton QB CAR Calvin Johnson WR DET Delanie Walker TE TEN
Russell Wilson QB SEA David Johnson RB ARI Doug Martin RB TAM
Allen Robinson WR JAC Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI
Doug Martin RB TAM Seattle Seahawks DEF SEA Thomas Rawls RB SEA
Greg Olsen TE CAR Cam Newton QB CAR Greg Olsen TE CAR
Carolina Panthers DEF CAR Russell Wilson QB SEA Danny Amendola WR NWE
      Doug Martin RB TAM Eric Decker WR NYJ
      Danny Amendola WR NWE Demaryius Thomas WR DEN
      Eric Decker WR NYJ Javorius Allen RB BAL
      Thomas Rawls RB SEA LeSean McCoy RB BUF
      Demaryius Thomas WR DEN Jeremy Maclin WR KAN
      Travis Kelce TE KAN Shaun Draughn RB SFO
      Jeremy Maclin WR KAN Adrian Peterson RB MIN
      Jordan Reed TE WAS Travis Kelce TE KAN
      Javorius Allen RB BAL Jordan Reed TE WAS
      LeSean McCoy RB BUF Seattle Seahawks DEF SEA
      Tom Brady QB NWE T.Y. Hilton WR IND
      Shaun Draughn RB SFO Jarvis Landry WR MIA
      Adrian Peterson RB MIN Matt Forte RB CHI
      Carson Palmer QB ARI Cam Newton QB CAR
      T.Y. Hilton WR IND Russell Wilson QB SEA
      Jarvis Landry WR MIA Darren McFadden RB DAL
      Carolina Panthers DEF CAR Martavis Bryant WR PIT
      Kansas City Chiefs DEF KAN Doug Baldwin WR SEA
      Denver Broncos DEF DEN Mike Evans WR TAM
      Martavis Bryant WR PIT Anquan Boldin WR SFO
      Doug Baldwin WR SEA T.J. Yeldon RB JAC
      Mike Evans WR TAM Gary Barnidge TE CLE
      Jameis Winston QB TAM Tom Brady QB NWE
      Matt Forte RB CHI Golden Tate WR DET
      Anquan Boldin WR SFO Emmanuel Sanders WR DEN
      Gary Barnidge TE CLE Jonathan Stewart RB CAR
      Green Bay Packers DEF GNB Frank Gore RB IND
            Sammy Watkins WR BUF
            Vincent Jackson WR TAM
            Carolina Panthers DEF CAR
            Kansas City Chiefs DEF KAN
            Dez Bryant WR DAL
            Amari Cooper WR OAK
            Carson Palmer QB ARI
            Lamar Miller RB MIA
            Denver Broncos DEF DEN
            Tyler Eifert TE CIN
            Kamar Aiken WR BAL
            Green Bay Packers DEF GNB
            Scott Chandler TE NWE
            NY Jets DEF NYJ
            DeSean Jackson WR WAS
            Donte Moncrief WR IND
            Stefon Diggs WR MIN
            Jameis Winston QB TAM
            Arizona Cardinals DEF ARI
            Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT
            Michael Crabtree WR OAK
            Ryan Fitzpatrick QB NYJ
            Aaron Rodgers QB GNB
            Chris Ivory RB NYJ
            Randall Cobb WR GNB
            Richard Rodgers TE GNB
            New England Patriots DEF NWE


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