The Rundown: FantasyScore Week 10

A weekly guide to FantasyScore's Salary Cap and Draft-and-Go contests.

The combination of recent injuries that haven't been priced into the system and an average over/under of 45.9 -- the second-highest of 2015 -- means that there's a ton of value to be had in Week 10. The key, as always, is to identify the players that are most likely (or least likely) to achieve value. Once again in this space, I'm going to present and discuss value probabilities I've calculated via a system I introduced in Week 8. (Click that link if you want to read more about the details.)

So let's get to it.

quarterbacks

Below are the quarterbacks with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

MOST LIKELY TO ACHIEVE VALUE
NAME TM SALARY AVG P(CASH) NAME TM SALARY MAX P(GPP)
Kirk Cousins WAS 4900 20.1 81.3% Kirk Cousins WAS 4900 20.6 56.5%
Joe Flacco BAL 5700 20.3 69.9% Joe Flacco BAL 5700 20.7 36.5%
Matthew Stafford DET 6500 19.4 49.4% Alex Smith KAN 5900 18.5 20.2%
LEAST LIKELY TO ACHIEVE VALUE
NAME TM SALARY AVG P(CASH) NAME TM SALARY MAX P(GPP)
Carson Palmer ARI 8400 20.2 20.3% Carson Palmer ARI 8400 21.5 2.4%
Eli Manning NYG 7900 19.6 25.1% Andy Dalton CIN 8400 22.0 2.9%
Derek Carr OAK 8200 20.8 26.7% Drew Brees NOR 8800 23.7 3.0%

Cousins is far and away the best value this week. His opponent, the New Orleans Saints, have given up over 300 yards passing in six of their nine games, including three straight coming into the Washington game. Marcus Mariota (Week 9), Eli Manning (Week 8), and Andrew Luck (Week 7) all posted season-high scoring totals against this pass defense. Cousins isn't on par with those three in terms of talent, but he's still good enough to score the 14.7 points in cash games or 19.6 in GPPs that are required to achieve value.

Meanwhile, Palmer is the quarterback to avoid. The Seahawks last two opponents have failed to crack 100 net passing yards. And although Palmer's significantly more talented than Colin Kaepernick and Matt Cassel, John Brown is questionable with a hamstring injury, and the game is at CenturyLink Field, a venue where opposing quarterbacks don't perform well historically. 

running backs

Below are the running backs with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

MOST LIKELY TO ACHIEVE VALUE
NAME TM SALARY AVG P(CASH) NAME TM SALARY MAX P(GPP)
Matt Jones WAS 2500 10.8 67.6% Matt Jones WAS 2500 12.4 62.9%
Isaiah Crowell CLE 2400 9.4 62.0% Isaiah Crowell CLE 2400 11.8 61.8%
C.J. Spiller NOR 2200 8.2 58.8% C.J. Spiller NOR 2200 10.1 57.1%
Dexter McCluster TEN 2700 9.0 54.9% Javorius Allen BAL 2100 8.1 48.4%
Marcel Reece OAK 2300 7.1 50.9% Jay Ajayi MIA 2000 7.3 46.2%
LEAST LIKELY TO ACHIEVE VALUE
NAME TM SALARY AVG P(CASH) NAME TM SALARY MAX P(GPP)
Chris Johnson ARI 7700 10.5 4.2% Chris Johnson ARI 7700 10.8 0.3%
Eddie Lacy GNB 6600 8.6 6.2% Adrian Peterson MIN 8600 16.6 0.7%
Alfred Morris WAS 5400 5.2 6.6% Alfred Morris WAS 5400 5.7 1.5%
Adrian Peterson MIN 8600 15.7 8.3% Eddie Lacy GNB 6600 11.6 2.1%
Ryan Mathews PHI 6500 10.5 10.9% Doug Martin TAM 7300 14.6 2.3%

On both sides of the ledger, the main story is a clear suggestion for which Washington running back you should opt for this week -- that is, if you're the brave soul contemplating the contrarian use of a Washington running back.

Otherwise, the best value play for my money is Marcel Reece. According to Football Outsiders, the Vikings pass defense ranks 25th against opposing running backs, and Latavius Murray, although listed as probable, is nevertheless coming off of a concussion. Therefore, it's reasonable to assume that Oakland's coaching staff may be inclined to limit Murray's touches if at all possible. And that benefits Reece, among others.

wide receivers

Below are the wide receivers with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

MOST LIKELY TO ACHIEVE VALUE
NAME TM SALARY AVG P(CASH) NAME TM SALARY MAX P(GPP)
Chris Givens BAL 2000 10.4 72.0% Chris Givens BAL 2000 12.5 72.3%
Bryan Walters JAC 2000 9.6 68.2% Harry Douglas TEN 2300 12.7 67.7%
Dorial Green-Beckham TEN 2200 9.8 66.4% Bryan Walters JAC 2000 10.9 64.9%
Kenny Stills MIA 2200 7.8 56.1% Tyler Lockett SEA 2400 11.5 59.9%
Justin Hunter TEN 2000 6.9 54.5% Dorial Green-Beckham TEN 2200 10.6 59.4%
Harry Douglas TEN 2300 7.6 53.5% Justin Hunter TEN 2000 9.0 55.2%
Tyler Lockett SEA 2400 7.8 53.3% Bennie Fowler DEN 2000 8.3 51.6%
Nate Washington HOU 3700 11.4 51.5% Kenny Stills MIA 2200 9.0 51.0%
Jerricho Cotchery CAR 2000 6.3 51.4% Jerricho Cotchery CAR 2000 8.0 50.0%
Nelson Agholor PHI 2000 6.0 50.0% Andrew Hawkins CLE 2000 7.8 49.0%
LEAST LIKELY TO ACHIEVE VALUE
NAME TM SALARY AVG P(CASH) NAME TM SALARY MAX P(GPP)
Dez Bryant DAL 8400 15.1 9.1% Julian Edelman NWE 8300 17.6 2.0%
Jeremy Maclin KAN 7300 13.1 12.4% Larry Fitzgerald ARI 7900 16.1 2.1%
Ted Ginn Jr CAR 5800 8.7 12.6% Jeremy Maclin KAN 7300 13.9 2.2%
Larry Fitzgerald ARI 7900 15.3 13.4% Demaryius Thomas DEN 8400 18.8 2.6%
Emmanuel Sanders DEN 7800 15.2 13.9% Dez Bryant DAL 8400 19.0 2.7%
Julian Edelman NWE 8300 16.8 14.2% Emmanuel Sanders DEN 7800 16.6 2.7%
James Jones GNB 6300 11.1 15.2% A.J. Green CIN 8000 17.8 3.1%
Michael Floyd ARI 6400 11.9 16.7% Antonio Brown PIT 8700 20.7 3.2%
Tavon Austin STL 6600 12.6 17.1% Tavon Austin STL 6600 12.9 3.8%
Antonio Brown PIT 8700 19.2 18.0% Ted Ginn Jr CAR 5800 9.9 4.0%

Among wide receivers most likely to achieve value, it appears as if Ravens-Jaguars is the game to target. After a 5-54-1 stat line last week, Walters has shown he can produce when the two receivers ahead of him on the depth chart, Allen Hurns and Marqise Lee, are out with injury. And this week, both are listed as questionable. Chris Givens, on the other hand, is more a leap of faith when it comes to his scoring ability when taking over for a fallen comrade. That said, at $2,000, all he needs to post is a 4-40-0 stat line to achieve value in both cash games and GPPs.

Larry Fitzgerald's has a high salary, is nursing an ankle injury, and will feel the same effects of playing the Seahawks in Seattle as his quarterback. Per Pro Football Focus, it's unlikely that Fitzgerald will be shadowed by Richard Sherman, but Footballguys is still calling this one a tough matchup.

tight ends

Below are the tight ends with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

MOST LIKELY TO ACHIEVE VALUE
NAME TM SALARY AVG P(CASH) NAME TM SALARY MAX P(GPP)
Crockett Gillmore BAL 2400 9.1 62.4% Will Tye NYG 1700 9.3 66.2%
Will Tye NYG 1700 7.0 62.2% Crockett Gillmore BAL 2400 11.5 62.4%
Zach Ertz PHI 3900 10.8 43.7% Clive Walford OAK 1700 8.7 62.4%
LEAST LIKELY TO ACHIEVE VALUE
NAME TM SALARY AVG P(CASH) NAME TM SALARY MAX P(GPP)
Gary Barnidge CLE 6800 11.8 7.5% Tyler Eifert CIN 7500 14.4 0.5%
Travis Kelce KAN 6900 12.3 7.9% Gary Barnidge CLE 6800 13.3 1.0%
Tyler Eifert CIN 7500 14.1 8.1% Travis Kelce KAN 6900 14.2 1.3%

Tye shows up as offering supreme value once again this week, but Gillmore's the better play because of his matchup. According to Football Outsiders, Jacksonville ranks 29th in pass defense efficiency against opposing tight ends, while New England ranks 5th.

Meanwhile, the value math agrees that Barnidge, Kelce, and Eifert are likely to be unnecessary drains on your salary cap should you choose to roster them.

defenses

Below are the defenses with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

MOST LIKELY TO ACHIEVE VALUE
NAME TM SALARY AVG P(CASH) NAME TM SALARY MAX P(GPP)
Oakland Raiders OAK 1300 10.2 88.1% Oakland Raiders OAK 1300 10.3 83.2%
Pittsburgh Steelers PIT 2000 11.2 83.4% Pittsburgh Steelers PIT 2000 11.4 73.9%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers TAM 1900 10.4 81.0% Tampa Bay Buccaneers TAM 1900 10.5 70.8%
LEAST LIKELY TO ACHIEVE VALUE
NAME TM SALARY AVG P(CASH) NAME TM SALARY MAX P(GPP)
Seattle Seahawks SEA 3400 9.8 46.9% Seattle Seahawks SEA 3400 9.9 24.3%
Arizona Cardinals ARI 2700 9.0 56.7% New England Patriots NWE 2800 9.6 38.1%
New England Patriots NWE 2800 9.5 58.2% St. Louis Rams STL 3200 11.2 38.1%

Personally, I have the Steelers everywhere, typically stacked with DeAngelo Williams. Among the other two high-value defenses, Tampa Bay is a better option than Oakland. As we saw last week (and the week before) with the Saints, just because a bad defense represents good value given their matchup doesn't mean they're worth including in your lineup. In short, Oakland, like the Saints before them, is priced this low for a reason! The Buccaneers, on the other hand, rank 9th in FantasyScore points despite having only played eight games, and so their positive matchup against Dallas represents a true bargain, not a mirage.

week 10 draft lists

Finally, to supplement the statistics-based strategies I recommended earlier in the season, here are the VBD draft lists you should use for FantasyScore's Draft-N-Go (DNG) games:

2-Person DNGs5-Person DNGs8-Person DNGS
NAMEPOSTmNAMEPOSTmNAMEPOSTm
Rob Gronkowski TE NWE Todd Gurley RB STL DeAndre Hopkins WR HOU
Todd Gurley RB STL Rob Gronkowski TE NWE Odell Beckham Jr Jr WR NYG
DeAndre Hopkins WR HOU Mark Ingram II RB NOR Todd Gurley RB STL
Odell Beckham Jr Jr WR NYG DeAndre Hopkins WR HOU Antonio Brown WR PIT
Tom Brady QB NWE Odell Beckham Jr Jr WR NYG Rob Gronkowski TE NWE
Mark Ingram II RB NOR DeAngelo Williams RB PIT Mark Ingram II RB NOR
Antonio Brown WR PIT Tom Brady QB NWE Demaryius Thomas WR DEN
DeAngelo Williams RB PIT Antonio Brown WR PIT Allen Robinson WR JAC
Demaryius Thomas WR DEN Demaryius Thomas WR DEN Alshon Jeffery WR CHI
Allen Robinson WR JAC Allen Robinson WR JAC DeAngelo Williams RB PIT
Alshon Jeffery WR CHI Darren McFadden RB DAL Tom Brady QB NWE
Randall Cobb WR GNB Alshon Jeffery WR CHI Randall Cobb WR GNB
Aaron Rodgers QB GNB DeMarco Murray RB PHI A.J. Green WR CIN
Darren McFadden RB DAL Randall Cobb WR GNB Mike Evans WR TAM
A.J. Green WR CIN A.J. Green WR CIN Calvin Johnson WR DET
Greg Olsen TE CAR Aaron Rodgers QB GNB Julian Edelman WR NWE
Denver Broncos DEF DEN Mike Evans WR TAM Amari Cooper WR OAK
Green Bay Packers DEF GNB Calvin Johnson WR DET Darren McFadden RB DAL
      Julian Edelman WR NWE Michael Crabtree WR OAK
      Drew Brees QB NOR Jarvis Landry WR MIA
      Amari Cooper WR OAK DeMarco Murray RB PHI
      Cam Newton QB CAR Stefon Diggs WR MIN
      Justin Forsett RB BAL Aaron Rodgers QB GNB
      Michael Crabtree WR OAK Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI
      Adrian Peterson RB MIN Emmanuel Sanders WR DEN
      Jarvis Landry WR MIA Brandin Cooks WR NOR
      Lamar Miller RB MIA Jordan Matthews WR PHI
      Greg Olsen TE CAR Dez Bryant WR DAL
      Jordan Reed TE WAS Drew Brees QB NOR
      Denver Broncos DEF DEN Justin Forsett RB BAL
      Green Bay Packers DEF GNB Willie Snead IV WR NOR
      Stefon Diggs WR MIN Adrian Peterson RB MIN
      Carolina Panthers DEF CAR Cam Newton QB CAR
      Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI Lamar Miller RB MIA
      Emmanuel Sanders WR DEN Greg Olsen TE CAR
      James Starks RB GNB Jordan Reed TE WAS
      Cincinnati Bengals DEF CIN Rishard Matthews WR MIA
      Brandin Cooks WR NOR Tyler Eifert TE CIN
      Jordan Matthews WR PHI Delanie Walker TE TEN
      Blake Bortles QB JAC James Starks RB GNB
      Dez Bryant WR DAL Marshawn Lynch RB SEA
      Marshawn Lynch RB SEA Jeremy Langford RB CHI
      Tyler Eifert TE CIN John Brown WR ARI
      Delanie Walker TE TEN Brandon LaFell WR NWE
      Pittsburgh Steelers DEF PIT Jeremy Maclin WR KAN
            T.J. Yeldon RB JAC
            Blake Bortles QB JAC
            Andy Dalton QB CIN
            Denver Broncos DEF DEN
            Green Bay Packers DEF GNB
            Charcandrick West RB KAN
            Doug Martin RB TAM
            Kamar Aiken WR BAL
            Martellus Bennett TE CHI
            Tavon Austin WR STL
            Martavis Bryant WR PIT
            Allen Hurns WR JAC
            Carolina Panthers DEF CAR
            Jonathan Stewart RB CAR
            Derek Carr QB OAK
            Golden Tate WR DET
            Cincinnati Bengals DEF CIN
            Pittsburgh Steelers DEF PIT
            St. Louis Rams DEF STL
            Michael Floyd WR ARI
            Jimmy Graham TE SEA
            Joe Flacco QB BAL
            Giovani Bernard RB CIN
            Travis Kelce TE KAN
            Davante Adams WR GNB
            Philadelphia Eagles DEF PHI
            Baltimore Ravens DEF BAL


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