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Dixon Rising
Terrance West began the game strong. He earned good creases and ran hard through them.
But Kenneth Dixon also looked strong. The knee brace is gone and the lateral agility and burst are back.
Although Dixon didn't out-produce West, I see this game as a sign of Dixon's rise in this offense for several reasons. The rookie faced difficult situations relative to West and was impressive on film.
Here's a strong display of balance, power, and effort to turn a loss into a gain.
Here's a play with good stop-start skill and a hard cut to get downhill and finish strong.
Here's another cut past Ryan Shazier's penetration and he finishes strong.
As this plays unfolded, West began making mistakes. This may be total narrative street, but I sense West feels some pressure to keep his job. If he isn't, his mistakes may open the door for Dixon to eventually take it.
West's pass protection had some flaws this weekend. He has to be more aggressive at the collision point. There's no way he should be waiting for Ryan Shazier to initiate the contact.
Dixon had no such trouble. He took the fight to James Harrison with great depth, position, and leverage.
West also committed a fumble inside Baltimore's 15 that could have become a game-altering turnover.
Dixon made no mistakes of this type and also showed good care for the ball on a difficult reception with a defender bearing down on him.
West is still a good back, but a healthy Dixon is one of the best rookie runners from the 2016 class and a prospect with a lot of talents that made Frank Gore a terrific back for a long time. At worst, Dixon did enough against the Steelers to earn consistent playing time in a committee with West. But I wouldn't be surprised if he earned himself even more than that despite the box score looking like West had the edge.
It would be a good time to buy Dixon.
CRUISE THE WIDE-OPEN SEAMS OF TAMPA
The most notable thing I saw on film Thursday Night against Atlanta was the vulnerability the Buccaneers had up the seam on the right side of the field. Many of Atlanta's big plays came off coverage miscommunications or the Falcons' receivers straight-up beating Tampa's defense.
So I checked the defensive game logs and noticed that the best producers against this unit are receivers and tight ends that work the middle of the field and the seams.
Check out the table and the players in bold type.
Wide Receivers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
All of these players in bold run crossers and seam routes as a function of their offense.
| NAME | WK | RSH | YD | TD | TARG | REC | YD | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 80 | 1 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 66 | 1 |
| Justin Hardy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 77 | 1 |
| Jaron Brown | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 78 | 1 |
| John Brown | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| Tavon Austin | 3 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 82 | 1 |
| Brian Quick | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 53 | 1 |
| Kenny Britt | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Bradley Marquez | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 94 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 8 | 88 | 1 |
| Jordan Norwood | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Jordan Taylor | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 70 | 0 |
| Corey Brown | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn Jr | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Aaron Burbridge | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Quinton Patton | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 12 | 173 | 1 |
| Michael Crabtree | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 8 | 108 | 0 |
| Seth Roberts | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 69 | 1 |
| Johnny Holton | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Holmes | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 8 | 111 | 1 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 9 | 2 | 24 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 74 | 0 |
Tight Ends vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The players in bold below either play in an offense that uses multiple tight end sets with great frequency or they are athletic "move" options that work the seams when targeted.
| NAME | WK | TARG | REC | YD | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Tamme | 1 | 8 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 2 | 5 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Jeff Heuerman | 4 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 5 | 13 | 9 | 181 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 7 | 6 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 7 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Mychal Rivera | 8 | 3 | 3 | 36 | 1 |
| Clive Walford | 8 | 4 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 9 | 6 | 3 | 46 | 1 |
| Levine Toilolo | 9 | 1 | 1 | 32 | 1 |
If you're in need of a spot starter down the stretch, Tampa's defense should be a prime matchup for you to consider move tight ends and secondary receiving options with a little more weight.
Carson Wentz: Adding perspective to "QB mechanics" analysis
He's not much more than a bye-week match-up play in re-draft leagues, but Carson Wentz has played well for a rookie starter. In recent weeks, we've seen more mistakes from Wentz and there is bound to be a lot written about him and other rookie passers as see defenses game plan against them.
Analysis of rookie quarterbacks trends towards the reactionary and it is often focused on the wrong things. One of those things is "mechanics", a catch-all term for the player's footwork and release of the ball.
A lot of inaccurate analysis has been written about footwork and release patterns with quarterbacks. For instance, many writers don't realize that there are certain techniques for throwing the ball from off-balance stances and they are actively taught by quarterback coaches. If they're not careful, they become the football equivalent of grammar instructors-turned-book reviewers that pan a book for things that were done on purpose.
Take this interception as an example. Most writers will comment on the footwork that leads to the ball sailing. I did...
But I also commented on the fact that most teams aren't worried about fixing stray mechanical issues with rookie quarterbacks during Year 1. If Wentz had major flaws, he wouldn't have been playing unless absolutely necessary.
Wentz will work on keeping his feet at shoulder width and doing so as he maneuvers the pocket. His accuracy after resetting in tight areas has always been a weakness and it stems from this tendency to set his feet too wide.
It's a minor thing in the scheme of what Wentz faces as a rookie: learning the play calls, reading defenses, and getting acquainted with the massive jump in athletic ability at the NFL level.
The Eagles quarterback coach may note this issue to Wentz, but there are more pressing priorities. In contrast, Blake Bortles knows his offense and should (BY NOW, BUT DOESN'T) demonstrate greater facility with reading defenses, so any regression in mechanics will be worked with immediately.
Don't expect massive technical improvement from Wentz this year. What you see is likely what you'll get. It means he's an up-and-down match-up play for the rest of the year and I wouldn't be buying any of his receivers as every-week starters.
Plug-in: Dujuan Harris
I liked Harris as a UDFA prospect of the Jaguars. Before the draft, I compared his body type and style to a former Jaguar.
DuJuan Harris, Troy (5-7, 202): Harris has a low center of gravity and short area quickness. Combined with the footwork and the combo of large muscular thighs and bubble, Harris is a physically-viable NFL RB prospect. He has the feet to pick through trash between the tackles and the stop-start speed to change directions in the open field while setting up defenders in the hole. He finishes plays with good pad level and he’s tough to bring down without wrapping. Harris catches short passes very well with his hands and he’s a willing blocker on the edge in the run game or in pass protection.
He frequently ran the ball from formations where pressing the hole wasn’t a part of the play’s execution. Therefore, I didn’t see traditional situations where he had to demonstrate any level of patience he might have as a runner. Although he can run through hits, he’s a short player and there will be a concern that he won’t hold up as an every down runner .
Harris will be criticized for his tendency to stop his feet because there are very few backs that thrive in the NFL with a stop-start style on a consistent basis. He grades out higher on the sum total of his individual skill sets than what he does putting them all together and this issue with his feet is one example. If he can change that stylistic tendency, he could become a viable committee back with possible upside.
He reminds me stylistically of a small-school Maurice Jones Drew, but without the top-end speed or unusual power. Still, Harris could have a chance to surprise if he is consistent in a training camp; has better speed than I gauged; and/or he can perform well against a higher level of athletes.
Harris has bounced around the league, earning time with four teams. The Packers Mike McCarthy liked Harris a lot, but Green Bay eventually cut him loose. Although the team kept him on the roster and used him sparingly after his recovery from a knee injury, the Packers had more exciting developments at the position.
When Tom Rathman talked about Harris to a recent broadcast crew, the 49ers RB coach said that Harris could be a productive player on the roster if he showed a little more decisiveness between the tackles. I heard this statement a month ago.
Harris must have followed Rathman's gameplan because he was the best running back on the 49ers this weekend. He won't overtake Carlos Hyde by any means, but he's a viable contributor regardless of this production coming against the Saints.
The biggest reason for this segment on Harris as a viable fantasy option in Hyde's stead is his pass protection. Mike Davis is a quality third-down back with big-back upside. For Harris to earn playing time ahead of Davis, pass protection is a must.
While Davis saw playing time and fared well as a pass protector, picking up a blitz like a good starter, he also fumbled at the one yard-line.
I don't know when Carlos Hyde is expected back but if you have the luxury of adding Harris as a handcuff or stretch-run option if Hyde gets hurt again and the 49ers shut him down, I'd do it.
Game plan or more? Vikings vs. lions
With Norv Turner out and Pat Shurmur in, Minnesota's offense was bound to have some differences this weekend. I think we were seeing hints of it in recent weeks when Cordarrelle Patterson became a routine part of the offense.
Although there was a steady amount of buzz this offseason that Patterson had worked on his route running, and I saw some better timing routes, I still didn't see a major improvement with his work against press coverage. Turner is a stickler for his receivers to master the timing game, including intermediate routes and sight adjustments of the defensive coverage.
Patterson's usage hasn't included these things and it meant Turner compromising his philosophy to get a playmaker on the field. I suspect Turner had enough of altering his ways and felt it was best for the team if he moved on.
Minnesota's offensive strategy against Detroit featured significant differences from other games: fewer intermediate and deep routes, a lot of targets exploiting the linebackers and safeties in the middle of the field, and quick-hitting routes to running backs.
Before the offense fell apart in recent weeks, Diggs seemed poised to become a decent fantasy play for the stretch-run after we saw him light up the Packers. Now that the Vikings are going to a quick passing game, Diggs has the PPR potential of Jarvis Landry.
Defenses would rather let offenses dink and dunk because long, successful drives without explosive plays are rare in the NFL. It means Diggs could wind up a reception monster down the stretch.
I'm not as optimistic about Patterson, but he's worth monitoring. He and Diggs are strong YAC receivers. So is Laquon Treadwell (see below). If Shurmur can figure out ways to use these three consistently, this offense could surprise. I'm not counting on it as much as I am Diggs.
I'd also watch Ronnie Hillman. Has the best runner on the field for pitch plays and other gap plays. Jerick McKinnon appeared tentative and indecisive. Even so, this looks like a three-way committee. The safest investment is Asiata, but the combo of cheapest with the greatest upside could be Hillman.
Youth movement
I'm always scouting developing young talent that hasn't broken loose on the fantasy scene. It's a valuable exercise for both re-draft and dynasty formats. Here's a short list of players that caught my eye this week and in recent weeks.
WR Roger Lewis: The former Bowling Green star caught my eye when studying him for the 2016 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. He lacks deep speed that made stopwatch clickers drool, but he has a knack for getting on top of defenders and tracking the football. He was one of the best vertical threats in the college game and I thought he displayed great polish in areas that are difficult to teach. Lewis scored in the season opener, his first NFL catch. This weekend, he scored on a busted zone route where his route at the top of his stem exacerbated the situation. With Victor Cruz dealing with an ankle injury, Lewis is a player to watch over the next week or two. He's also a player I like as a luxury stash in really deep leagues (40-50 man rosters).
WR Robby Anderson: The rookie is not only earning regular playing time, but his speed is forcing veteran cornerbacks to play off coverage and give up shorter routes. Anderson also displays acrobatic skill and toughness at the catch point.
Anderson worked with Chad Johnson on his routes before the draft and this summer. The Jets love his focus on the game, Brandon Marshall thinks the rookie has a chance to be a future star, and Ryan Fitzpatrick has confidence him.
Laquon Treadwell: Norv Turner is one for starting rookies and Adam Thielen has played good football. Thielen isn't the athlete Treadwell is, but he's where he's supposed to be, reads the defense the way his quarterback expects, and catches the ball well. It made him a more trustworthy commodity for a defensive-oriented team that can't afford a ton of mistakes because the offensive line is bad.
These factors have caused fantasy owners to question just how good Treadwell is. It's hard for them to believe that Treadwell is good if he can't see the field this far into the season. They want to compare him to Michael Thomas.
It's not fair to either player. Thomas has played with the same quarterback all summer and fall. Treadwell was learning with Teddy Bridgewater and the scheme used with the young quarterback. When Bridgewater got hurt, the Vikings altered the scheme to accommodate it to Sam Bradford's strengths.
In addition to that change, the Turner demanded a fuller execution of the route tree from its receivers than the Saints. Treadwell was a little slower to learn the full range of the system and he second-guessed decisions that kept him off the field and made him look tentative in practices.
Turner and Mike Zimmer had differing philosophies about the offense and personnel. The fact that Cordarrelle Patterson has been seeing the field in recent weeks (see my segment on the Vikings offense above) is an indication that Zimmer wanted playmakers on the field and the offense tailored to them, which goes against Turner's system-first philosophy.
With Turner gone, we had a Treadwell sighting and the dig he ran for a 15-yard completion was an excellent route.
Remain patient with Treadwell. He may not emerge this year (although monitor his progress), but if anyone is willing to accept a late first or second-round pick for him in dynasty leagues, don't hesitate.
Dwayne Washington: I saw some of the same things from him this weekend from a stout Vikings unit that I saw from him during his brief tenure as a starter at Washington. The rookie has Coach Caldwell excited about the same things: power, balance, and burst.
Watch the rookie win this matchup in the hole with Anthony Barr.
I still believe in Ameer Abdullah's feature back abilities, but Washington has the potential to force a committee in Detroit long-term. What you need to monitor is his offseason growth as a blocker and receiver. If he proves to be a worker, watch out.
Return of the easter Bunny
Steve Smith was a game-time decision this weekend, but he has a post on Twitter with a meme of a little boy that I'm presuming was his son. It said to the effect, I'm paraphrasing, "If you don't think he's playing this weekend, you don't know my daddy."
I doubted Smith would be good this year, much less effective, after shredding his Achilles. Although I was predicting that my doubts would be proven wrong, it was hope more than belief.
I thought Smith would be a decoy this weekend, but he flashed enough good healthy to make plays. This one below is a good illustration of the power, leverage, burst, and determination we've come to love from Smith.
It's a good indication that Smith will be returning to fantasy lineups next week and beyond. May the retirement tour recommence.
In case you don't know why I call Smith the Easter Bunny, it stems back to the year Adrian Peterson returned in record time from his ACL tear. I said on a preseason episode of the Audible that there was no fantasy Santa Claus. Ever since I've called Peterson Fantasy Santa Claus.
When Smith was rehabbing this summer, I began referring to Smith as the Fantasy Easter Bunny.
Single coverage
Notes about relevant fantasy options based on Week 9's games:
- Xavier Rhodes shut down Marvin Jones on vertical routes. There were enough targets to do damage, but Rhodes provided excellent coverage.
- Ben Roethlisberger's accuracy was off early on because he was uncomfortable transferring the weight to his front leg. It was difficult to tell whether he gained more confidence in the leg or made slight changes to his release, but he got hot in the fourth quarter and executed difficult throws downfield.
- Tim Hightower started the game and he was a consistent force on the ground game, and Mark Ingram's 75-yard gain was through a huge crease and a bad decision by Antoine Bethea, but Ingram made the big plays and demonstrated better agility and burst throughout. Expect Hightower to earn consistent time but barring more mistakes, the Saints' starting gig is Ingram's.
- IDP leagues: Every week, I'm seeing 2-3 impressive plays from Lions defensive end Kerry Hyder, Jr. He's worth monitoring if you don't already have him.
Double Takes
This segment below is not your typical plays of the week fodder. It won't appear weekly and while some of these highlights are breathtaking, some will be heavier on the football geek factor.
This Ryan Shazier tackle won't be found on a segment of "top plays" but it's the second time in a few weeks that I've seen him blow up a screen play.
I'm placing it here because the Steelers' may not be a great defense, but if you have to consider a bye-week or injury replacement running back with Pittsburgh as the opponent that weekend, I want you to forget about him earning much as a receiver in the flat.
If you watch the Browns or Bengals, you see a variation of this alignment at least once a game. You may have heard that opposing defensive coordinators spend several hours a week working on how to defender it.
Yet, I bet you've rarely seen it do damage to a defense. At least until until now.
If I were a defensive coordinator and had to add 4-6 hours to my work week for this play that's rarely used, I'm not sure whether I'd want to shake the hand of the offensive coach or go after him.
Why did Cleveland acquire linebacker Jamie Collins last week, knowing it will have to negotiate a new deal by year's end? Because left tackle Tyron Smith is a beast who makes fools out of good edge defenders. Watch him trash the Eagles defenders in Week 8 (@johnowning has some of these on his timeline from last week) and then watch Collins work through the All-Pro and tackle Ezekiel Elliott behind the line of scrimmage.
That's two big-time feats on one play and he barely knows the defense. If the Browns can keep Collins, Terrelle Pryor, Joe Thomas, and Hue Jackson, there's hope for the Browns.
As I've written about earlier this year, Double A-Gap pressure is a difficult problem to solve for any offense. I think it might be more difficult early in the year when offensive linemen aren't as in sync as they are as the season progresses.
The Lions offensive line handled it well against the Vikings on Sunday, generating a big play.
Although linebacker Eric Kendricks wasn't in the lineup, it leads me to wonder if opponents aren't figuring out some of the Vikings' tricks. I don't expect a huge downgrade of the Vikings' unit, but I'm interested in seeing if future opponents will counter Minnesota's favorite pressure look.
Speaking of the Lions, this 2nd and 2 with 0:17 seconds left, no timeouts available, and 25 yards needed to reach field goal range was the best moment I saw all day.
To complete this pass was tough, but for the Lions to get downfield in time to spike the ball with two seconds left and set up the game-tying field goal was tougher. Huge props to Matt Stafford and the Detroit offense.
And if that two-play sequence was the best thing I saw all weekend, this game-winner from Golden Tate where he crossed the goal line like a Luchador entering the ring was the most fun.
I know it wasn't a strategic decision, but throwing the "cross booty block" on the Vikings defender was an effective way of practice good ball security.
Fresh Fish
Fantasy football is a cruel place. We're always searching for that weakest link. While we don't want anyone facing the wrath of Hadley, we'd love nothing more than having our players face an opponent whose game has come unglued on the field.
Catch of The Day: Broncos Pro Scouts and/or Offensive Staff
For weeks, I have listed the right side of the Oakland Raiders defensive front as the "Silver and Black" welcome mat. And for the past two weeks, neither of Oakland's opponents ran to the right side. Not only has the right side of the line been weak against the run, but running towards Khalil Mack slows down his pass rush.
I thought Denver would not make the same mistake as Tampa Bay, but it did. The Broncos did not run once to the right side of the Raiders line during the first 3.5 quarters of the game. By the mid-fourth quarter, the game script evolved as such that establishing the run and working off it was a moot point.
As a fan, the Broncos are my least favorite team in football. As a guy that writes about the game, I was shocked that Denver missed this weakness. The "Fresh Fish" calls go to either the pro scouts that didn't see or note this sizable, existing weakness in advanced scouting reports or the offensive staff for not exploiting it.
By game's end, the Denver defense was calling the Raiders offensive "daddy" while pleading for its mommy.
In the spirit of "The Shawshank Redemption," here is my short list of players and/or units that could have you chanting "fresh fish" when your roster draws the match-up:
- The right side of the Raiders' line—in case we forgot after Tampa and Denver avoided it.
- The 49ers' run defense: Mark Ingram was the 7th consecutive 100-yard rusher against it—an NFL record.
- The left side fo the Steelers' line still looked weak despite the return of Cam Heyward.
- Dolphins cornerback Byron Maxwell was beaten deep by Robby Anderson on the first drive of the game but Ryan Fitzpatrick overthrew the target. Maxwell didn't even try to jam Anderson. The former Seahawks' corner also drew two defensive pass interference penalties against Brandon Marshall.
- I wouldn't be surprised if the Browns' fans offered more resistance to the large presence of Cowboys' fans in Cleveland Stadium than the Browns' defense did with Ezekiel Elliott and Alfred Morris. At least the 49ers front exists to make Cleveland's unit look good by comparison.
- The Saints linebackers are a collection of players that were not slated to be in the lineup this year. It shows when they are trying to cover tight ends and receivers working the middle of the field. If in need, target receivers, tight ends, and backs facing the Saints that see a lot of crossing route targets or play-action routes in the middle of the field.
- This note about the Saints also applies to the Colts and Lions linebackers.
