1. THE DEZ EFFECT
Cowboys-Eagles is one of my favorite rivalries and last night's game was an introduction to a new cast of hopefully long-term characters who could add to the history of this divisional feud. But one of the players with the greatest impact on how this year's game turned out was Dez Bryant and it had less to do with his performance and more to do with the way his teammates and opponents reacted to him.
As a guy with Bryant on my dynasty squads, it was refreshing to see this again:
But for the development of Dak Prescott, I think it was a blessing in disguise that Bryant got hurt early. Prescott had as up-and-down a performance as I've seen since he made his pro debut and I think much of it had to do with him trying to force the ball to Bryant rather than let the game flow in front of him.
There were multiple plays where Prescott made errant throws and rushed his process. Here's a red zone play where he fired the ball off his back foot from a clean pocket and placed the ball on the hip of the cornerback rather than above the back shoulder of Bryant.
As the game wore on, Prescott made numerous throws where he was trying to force the ball and be a playmaker without good game management practices—especially in the red zone. Here's an egregious case of Prescott bird-dogging his receiver as if the linebacker dropping was a million miles away to the right.
This scramble drill ending with a stubborn, forced target rather than throwing the ball away and taking the field goal is a strong example. If the Eagles were an inch or so better with its defensive execution on these plays, Dallas never wins this game.
Without Terrence Williams committing an offensive pass interference penalty, this fourth quarter drive likely ends with an Eagles interception and Philadelphia maintains a comfortable lead. This play wasn't the last.
The play before tying the game and sending it to overtime, Prescott tries to be Steve McNair and nearly delivers the game-sealing interception.
For all the bad decisions and rushed footwork, Prescott made enough good plays to support my statement that it was good that Bryant got hurt early in the season. The rookie played enough disciplined football without a superstar receiver for several weeks that he was able to stop a total spin-out.
The play after his near-interception, here's Prescott delivering another fade to Bryant when it counted most—and with both feet on the ground.
In overtime, Prescott exhibited great pocket presence and rhythm to avoid pressure and find Cole Beasley in the flat. What I especially liked about the play below is the fact that Prescott showed poise. The Eagles blitzed the Cowboys' quarterback with abandon during the final seconds of the fourth quarter and early in the extra period and he was not only ineffective, he should have earned an intentional grounding penalty on one of those drops.
The rookie recovered from that mess and his response below was a textbook play.
Despite Prescott's emotional recovery at the right time, l concerned that Bryant's influence will lead to Prescott forcing the ball more often in future weeks. I'm also wondering if the rookie didn't try too hard to be a playmaker, knowing that Tony Romo's return is imminent.
Prescott's fantasy value remains at the tier of a boom-bust streamer, especially with what I'm noting with Bryant in the mix. Prescott's tendencies are actually good for Bryant and the desire to stretch the field with Bryant makes life easier for Ezekiel Elliott.
2. See A-Rod Run...
If one of Don Jackson or Knile Davis goes off against the Colts, forget what I'm about to tell you. But I don't think it's going to happen. What I think the Atlanta game revealed is that until James Starks is ready to return from early-October meniscus surgery, the ground game will revolve around Ty Montgomery and Aaron Rodgers.
Rodgers carried the ball 6 times for 60 yards against the Falcons and his ability to bounce plays outside the pocket complemented what makes Rodgers a great thrower of the football.
When linebackers have to climb to account for a quarterback's running, it opens the field for his receivers to work back to the ball and shield chasing defensive backs from the throw. It sounds great in theory, but few quarterbacks can execute with the skill Rodgers possesses.
Although this touchdown to Jeff Janis isn't a full-blown throw on the run, it is a throw on the move and the target is delivered while moving in the opposite direction of where Rodgers has to lead the receiver.
Pin-point completions of this caliber combined with Rodgers' speed makes him one of the few quarterbacks who can still operate well with an incapacitated ground game. Granted, Atlanta's linebacking corps is comprised of rookies and journeymen that are easily confused, but the Packers aren't overly concerned about running right now. The fact that Green Bay put Davante Adams in the backfield several times against the Falcons so it could earn easy targets for the receiver, but never once handed him the ball as a runner, is another piece of supporting evidence.
If you're one of those fantasy owners holding on to Davis or Jackson, I think you'll come to the realization by next Sunday evening that the back to own will be Montgomery (if listed as such) or Starks.
3. Don't blame Gronkelce
Patriots fans will whine that no one compares to Rob Gronkowski. Fantasy analysts who only look at data scoff at the notion. Neither has watched enough of Travis Kelce or they would see there is a legitimate case that the Chiefs tight end has skills in the neighborhood of the Patriots' superstar.
This is one of the best hard breaks I've seen a tight end run and I saw Kelce do it all the time as a Cincinnati Bear Cat. Note how far he drops his hips into this break at the top of his stem. There are receivers that lack this leg power and flexibility. It's what allows Kelce to earn separation on underneath routes against aggressive safeties.
The route below is a corner-post run against a safety that results in a touchdown. Pay attention to the hard jab step inside, the head-fake outside, and the quick turn back to the post. This is a route that would make any wide receiver proud to run.
It's not just the route running and skill after the catch, he tracks the ball well on a dead-run and he's a fine run blocker. If Tyreek Hill can continue to develop into a reliable field-stretcher and Alex Smith...yeah, forget it. If Kelce can get matched with a smart AND aggressive quarterback before his body breaks down, he may one day become the fantasy prize that dynasty leaguers hoped he'd become.
I expect Kelce's re-draft value to rebound down the stretch and he's a good buy-low if you can get him. But expecting anything more than top-5 production is probably unrealistic.
4. CRABTREE VS. COOPER
During a recent Footballguys Roundtable, I posed a question about Michael Crabtree or Amari Cooper for the rest of the season. The panel leaned towards Cooper, but not without some serious consideration of Crabtree. I thought about this question again after watching the Buccaneers game. Tampa Bay Defensive Coordinator and former Falcons Head Coach Mike Smith told the broadcast team this week that the Buccaneers considered Crabtree that primary threat of the Raiders passing game.
Although Cooper out-paced Crabtree on the box score, Crabtree had one touchdown called back due to a penalty that wasn't his own and a deep catch reversed on a holding penalty. Throw in a second nullified touchdown where he pushed off Brett Grimes at the top of a stem, and Crabtree could have equaled or surpassed Cooper's impressive totals.
I've often shared at Footballguys that young receivers I've spoken with have repeatedly dropped Crabtree's name as the guy they study for route running. What we often forget is how good Crabtree was after the catch at Texas Tech. Watching Oakland find scenarios in this game where they could exploit Crabtree's ball carrying was a good reminder.
He no longer has the same burst and top-end speed he had before the Achilles injury (and even then, it wasn't top-notch), but he remains a smooth runner with open-field balance and power.
Appreciation for Crabtree doesn't diminish my outlook for Cooper. I'm sharing it because I think Crabtree remains a sneakier buy for those of you in leagues who can still get him. Cooper has higher upside but I bet people will be surprised by year's end at the stats. They would have been surprised to hear Coach Smith's statement about the two that I relayed earlier.
If there is a Route of the Week, Cooper ran one that would have earned my nomination:
I hope you drafted one of these two receivers.
5. Welcome back, Josh Mccown (and Gary barnidge)
From the first play of the game, the Browns' duo picked up where they left off (note the three-tight end set that is becoming all the rage).
Barnidge's 3-catch, 42-yard day doesn't remotely match what I just stated, but that's because you didn't see the pass interference penalty he drew on Calvin Pryor in the end zone that led to a 1-yard plunge by Isaiah Crowell. It disguised the real impact and fantasy potential of Barnidge's game from the pure box score jockeys out there.
It was also a funny play because Pryor told the broadcast crew before the game that Barnidge mostly ran inside-breaking routes and lacked the speed to work outside. This may be true, but the statement was a reflection of Pryor's over-confident, over-aggressive play on Barnidge below and the Browns' tight end made Pryor pay.
I hope Barnidge doesn't get sick because eating fish caught in East River is hazardous. Poor Chase Stuart...Not really. Poor me. The Jets won, and after the things that I saw in Lake Erie (and heard about the Cuyahoga River) growing up, I have little room to poke fun at the East River.
6. SPROLES SURPRISE?
Two weeks ago in my Friday "Best Of" feature, I had a gut feeling about Darren Sproles against the Vikings that didn't come to fruition. It appears that I was a week early. Sproles earned the starter workload against the Cowboys and performed well enough that we should be wondering if he'll keep it.
Here are my thoughts on Sproles' talents heading into the Vikings game:
I won't normally profile deep sleepers in this feature, but I feel compelled to do so this week. Take my gut feeling with a grain of salt on this one if you're a data-hardened player, but I had a chance to watch Sproles' college tape again on Thursday night and was struck by his talent.
Since Sproles became a known entity in the NFL, every draft analyst I know—myself included—has compared a player to Sproles. And we've all been dead-wrong. Sproles was amazing at Kansas State. His balance, power, burst, and agility where Heisman-worthy.
Watch the moves he makes at the 39-second mark. This is Marshawn Lynch-like for his hip and leg flexibility. As my buddy, Eric Stoner of the Big Bored Blog says, "his upper and lower body operates independently of each other."
There's also an excellent understanding of where his other foot should strike the ground while dealing with contact and that leg is in the air. It's a motor-spatial awareness that's rare among runners. What also separates Sproles from all the pretenders is that he wasn't a spread formation runner in college, but an I-back who ran power, counter, trap, and ISO from compressed line splits that match the NFL game much more than the guys often compared to him.
Sproles will never be a power runner and shots like these often scare coaches who even think about leaning on him as the lead backfield option.
But they shouldn't be so concerned. Sproles and Warrick Dunn paved the way for collegiate teams to consider backs like Dion Lewis and Jacquizz Rodgers. I'm hoping, at least for this year, Rodgers paves the way for the Eagles to stick with Sproles as its lead back. He's in his 12th year, so injury won't be a huge loss. And because he's played this long without a lead role since he was Kansas State's bell cow (bless Bill Snyder for making it happen), he'd probably love to leave the league with at least one extended shot to do it and show us what we've been missing.
Most important, Sproles' dimensions and talents make it easier for the offensive line. He's not just a patient runner, but his size and speed is an asset because the holes don't need to be as big or held onto as long.
The offense can also expand its run-pass options without specializing to the back on the field.
As the game progresses, the line play will still wear down opponents and Sproles has the thick lower body and balance to run through arm tackles and bounce off certain hits that you wouldn't expect.
It doesn't look like much, but this is a four-yard gain in the red zone after contact near the line of scrimmage that would knock a lot of bigger runners sideways.
What will happen more frequently is Sproles ripping through tired defenders reaching for him in the crease.
At this moment, Sproles is the best back in Philadelphia. Kenjon Barner isn't a complete player, Wendell Smallwood lacks experience and I have questions about his decision making between the tackles, and Ryan Mathews is probably in a funk.
Mathews is the real argument here. He's a great talent but his ball security has cost him the staff's trust and I wouldn't be surprised if he has also lost confidence in himself. The business of football is tough and sadly, there is some history of this happening with him.
I don't know if the Eagles are truly ready to hand the job to Sproles, but 20 touches in a divisional game on the road vs. 10 total for the other 3 backs says they are. I'm not evening broaching a discussion about the Eagles' schedule, Sproles was a great college running back who never got a shot to prove he could be a good every-down runner. I hope he gets the final eight weeks of this season to try. He's worth a luxury add to your roster and I'd dump a high-upside reserve getting little playing time or a committee handcuff dependent on injury to make it happen.
7. CHECKING IN WITH THE PATRIOTS' MAN-ZONE THEORY
Three weeks ago, I shared my fantasy theory on the Patriots' offense and after it panned out, I revisited last week.
Beyond the obvious plays of Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski, one of the most compounding plays has been the supporting cast of the Patriots' offense. Laid out below is the working theory. I thought it would be trashed sooner than it has, but so far it has been accurate.
Opponents That Play A Lot of Man
- Buffalo (Week 8): Technically, the Bills play a lot of Cover 4 zone but its style of zone converts to man against "inside" routes often run by tight ends. It also plays its share of press coverage.
- San Francisco (Week 11): The 49ers like to play press coverage.
- New York Jets (Weeks 12 & 16): Darrelle Revis...
- Baltimore (Week 14): A lot of man on the outside.
- Denver (Week 15)
Opponents That Play A Lot of Zone
- Pittsburgh (Week 7): Although some of these options have higher upside based on the defensive scheme, I wouldn't downgrade Bennett, Hogan, or Blount when they're not facing those units.
- Seattle (Week 10): Although Seattle is known for Richard Sherman coverage skills, the Seahawks are essentially a zone defense.
- L.A. (Week 13): Gregg Williams will use his share of press man to blitz defenses but he also likes to place his safeties in disguised zones.
Optimal Pats vs. Man:
- Martellus Bennett: The Browns played a lot of man coverage and Bennett's size poses difficulties for linebackers and safeties at the catch-point and after the catch. The two tight end alignments and play-action also give Bennett big-play opportunities because the opposing corner, safety, or linebacker has to honor the run.
- Chris Hogan: Not as fast as Edelman, Hogan is a better receiver at the catch-point on downfield targets. He's a physical receiver and tracks the ball better against tight coverage. Because he's slower than Edelman, he's often the target on play-action deep routes involving those heavy run sets with two tight ends.
- LeGarrette Blount: Defenses are more likely to honor the run in two tight end sets with him in the backfield in comparison to James White. Blount is also a decent screen receiver and an excellent draw runner. He'll have some big runs when Brady and company break the huddle in heavy sets with tight ends to the same side but then shift pre-snap to a shotgun look with both tight ends split from the formation as receivers on each side.
Optimal Pats vs. Zone:
- Julian Edelman: Mostly a slot receiver, Edelman performs better when a cover corner isn't assigned to him. When Brady can run play-action and find Edelman behind the linebackers on deep crossers or in-cuts that let him work across the field with a running start, he's in for big days. Cincinnati rushed four and dropped seven with regularity this weekend and it was Edelman who earned a team-high 7 targets among the wide receivers.
- James White: White had some moments against the Browns two weeks ago, but he was at his best against the zone-oriented Bengals. He earned nine targets and caught eight of them for 47 yards and 2 touchdowns. Brady often targeted White under the linebackers in the right flat for nice gains, including one of White's touchdowns. He's just quick enough to do damage. If Dion Lewis returns to form, substitute his name here.
- Danny Amendola: Amendola is a terrific zone option when healthy. If you need a bye-week desperation flier, you can do worse than Amendola when the Patriots face zone-heavy defensive units.
Week 8's Results versus Buffalo: Because the Bills play a lot of Cover 4 zone that converts to man up the seam against tight ends, the matchup was promising for zone and man targets at receiver and man targets at tight end and running back.
- LeGarrette Blount earned the carries, but not the yards. His touchdown saved him from a disastrous fantasy outing, but it was the clear start ahead of James White, who followed up his good zone matchups with Cincinnati and Pittsburgh with a total dud against the Bills.
- Chris Hogan's 4-91-1 performance fit the press coverage and seam element of the Bills offense.
- Gronkowski's 5-109-1 fit the seam element perfectly, but Martellus Bennett's 4-35-0 day was a disappointment.
- Zone specialists Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman were about as productive as Bennett when not counting their touchdowns, but it's that touchdown appeal against zone looks that made "optimal zone" plays.
The Patriots have a bye this week. In Week 10, the New England faces Seattle and this should be a zone game that benefits Edelman, Amendola, and White.
8. CATCH OF THE DAY I: FORK-TENDER DARRELLE REVIS
This is one of the sadder segments of the season for me as a football fan. Revis is one of the greatest press corners to play the game. This weekend, Revis admitted that he's not the same player and his body is "beat up."
You didn't need to hear him say it if you saw the way he played Terrelle Pryor on Sunday. Revis in his prime was strong, balanced, and quicker running sideways and backwards and almost any receiver moving forward. Although Pryor is well on his way to becoming an elite receiver in the NFL, this matchup reminded me of the underrated Larry Holmes facing Muhammad Ali well after Ali should have ever been donned the gloves gain.
Revis played well off Pryor for most of the game, content to tackle the receiver rather than let the Brown run by him—and that strategy didn't always pan out for him.
When Revis played tight he appeared a step slow.
You might say that Revis was in good company because I profiled Josh Norman getting schooled by Pryor in the first half of the Cleveland-Washington game, leading to Washington helping in the second half with a safety over top. But as good as Norman can be, Revis was way better in his prime—especially against big, physical receivers with quickness.
What makes this sadder is that Pryor has been limited the past two weeks with a nagging hamstring injury. Even so, Revis has earned a career's worth of respect as a great cornerback who has gone down hill. Norman is the equivalent of a fish caught on a line in the East River and repped as an ocean-quality catch.
9. Faux CATCH OF THE DAY II: GREEN-FRIED JOSH NORMAN
I'm being harsh with Norman because he annoyed me on Sunday morning. Maybe he was doing it for his own fragile self-confidence, but watching him talk smack and make "incomplete pass" gestures on unsuccessful targets to A.J. Green—most of them he was not a factor in preventing legally—are reasons why he's a pretender in my eyes.
John Lynch described this matchup more favorably for Norman than it actually was. In Lynch's defense, he was calling the game real time. I have the luxury of watching plays multiple times. Green spanked Norman and this play could easily embody the entire matchup between the two:
Norman held, Green dealt with his usual less-than-pinpoint quarterback, and Green still made good.
This play above was really his best "legal" play and it was aided by Dalton severely underthrowing the target. Normal also got hurt on the play and it gave the Bengals a few plays to target Green against former wide receiver Quinton Dunbar, who wasn't experienced enough to even try to hold the All-Pro.
And in case you need a reminder, Green is a lot stronger than he looks with that beanpole frame.
Dear God, please give me a league with fantasy owners who have pause starting A.J. Green against any cornerback—especially Josh Norman. On second thought...please don't. I like competition.
Instead, can we give Green and Travis Kelce a quarterback with an aggressive mentality and the arm to make good on it? That's a better prayer for all football fans.
10. FRESH FISH
Fantasy football is a cruel place. We're always searching for that weakest link. While we don't want anyone facing the wrath of Hadley, we'd love nothing more than having our players face an opponent whose game has come unglued on the field.
In the spirit of "The Shawshank Redemption," here is my short list of players and/or units that could have you chanting "fresh fish" when your roster draws the match-up:
- Atlanta linebackers: Confusion with motion at the goal line on Sunday resulted in an easy touchdown between two of the linebackers. Deion Jones was trying to communicate the change, but it didn't help.
- Colts secondary: The safeties and linebackers couldn't handle Kelce, Jeremy Maclin, or Tyreek Hill—and many of these poor moments weren't huge products of Vontae Davis exiting the game with a concussion.
- Darrelle Revis: I'm hoping he's just really banged up, but I think that's denial talking.
- San Francisco front seven: They didn't play, but the unit's past performances keep them squarely on this list.
- The right side of the Raiders line: It was better this week, but the Buccaneers didn't exploit it nearly as often as I expected them to.
- Jacksonville Jaguars secondary: Since it's Halloween, I'll leave you with a graphic photo of fright and dread. Ramsey has this zone as his responsibility but inexplicably dips inside two steps as if he saw something and forgot Delanie Walker was his responsibility. Maybe the rookie saw a ghost...
See you next week (hopefully not in Fresh Fish).
