articles

The Top 10

Seattle's triplets, Ezekiel Elliott, the Siemian Delivery Mechanism, Tabloid Fantasy Narratives, and Fresh Fish in Week 3's Top 10. 

By Matt Waldman
September 26, 2016
The Top 10
Photo: Brian Spurlock, USA Today Sports
Underdog Fantasy Deposit Match

 

1. Congratulations Seattle, you've got triplets...

 ...And they arrived in most unlikely fashion.  

Christine Michael's story is the NFL's version of the Prodigal Son, except that Thomas Rawls might not be inheriting that starting gig when he returns from a shin injury that could keep him sidelined for a month. Michael and the left side of Seattle's offensive line—which looked far better than it has to open September—gashed the 49ers early and often. 

 

Seattle featured Michael early and often as a runner and receiver, although the 49ers were much better at limiting Michael through the air. The mature Michael actually had a better day than the box score appeared. The Seahawks runner had three good runs nullified due to penalties, one of them a strong run on a Luke Willson hold that was unnecessary.

Pete Carroll is about competition but if Michael continues playing like this, the Seahawks will not only be taking its sweet time with Rawls' rehab but last year's rookie surprise might wind up a role player for the remainder of 2016. With rookie right guard Germain Ifedi likely to return as soon as next week, this Seahawks unit could be ready to roll.

If you're weak at receiver, tight end, or quarterback, and Michael is part of a strong stable of runners for your team, I'd consider selling one of your name brand studs and rolling with the Seahawk runner. If you're weak at running back and can get him at a moderate value—a RB2/RB3, depending on how well you can convince your negotiation partner of the risks of Rawls—I recommend doing so.

Doug Baldwin has been the middle child of NFL receivers, but it's clear he's Russell Wilson's go-to guy. He reminds me a lot of Derrick Mason, the former Titan and Raven receiver who had seven seasons as no worse than a fantasy WR2 during his 11 years as an NFL starter. Both were excellent at winning difficult targets. 

 

No, I don't endorse the NFL public relations employee who floated the idea that Baldwin's grab could be the "catch of the day." This, ladies and gentlemen, was the catch of the day. 

 

This is among the many reasons why Peterson earned consideration as a part-time receiver early in his career with the Cardinals. Back to the Seahawks, Michael and Baldwin are solid fantasy options with big-play skills that will open up this offense. The linchpin—not Lynchpin—is the improbable recovery of Jimmy Graham, who this time last year seemed like a horrific fit for this offense before he tore his patellar tendon. 

 

The Seahawks tight end is showing no fear and his confidence his growing steadily. He took a big hit to his rehabbed leg against the Rams last week and it was a monumental psychological step in his recovery. For the past three weeks, I've seen Graham make plays against collisions from defenders, which has been encouraging enough for the Seahawks to up his snaps significantly each week.

I can't tell if his burst and vertical prowess is all the way back but it's good enough that he has mid-range TE1 fantasy value. As long as Seattle's offensive staff doesn't try to make Graham a blocker again, Seattle's fantasy fortunes look much better than they did two weeks ago.

Although Russell Wilson suffered an MCL sprain, Carroll was correct in noting that the Seahawks' quarterback's ankle was much healthier. Wilson took far more snaps from center than he did against the Rams and his intermediate and deep game was much-improved. We didn't see the Doug Flutie-esque flights from the pocket until he found a receiver but he was effective.

I know my bud Matt Harmon believes that Jimmy Graham's rehab spells doom for Tyler Lockett's value but I think my colleague might be falling for the "too many mouths to feed" syndrome that we have all experienced as disappointed fantasy owners. Last year, Doug Baldwin had 5 games in 6 weeks with no more than 3 catches and 36 yards.

Lockett had two games with goose eggs in his box score in 2015. Consider him more prone to game scripts where Seattle has a huge matchup advantage on the ground and can dominate this game early. There won't be many of these.  

2. How Carson Wentz Became a viable fantasy option

If I had my preference, I'd keep most rookie quarterbacks on the bench during their first year. My preference is based on the assumption that the quarterback in questions lacks experience in offensive schemes most commonly seen in the NFL and doesn't have a staff of former pro quarterbacks for coaches.

Even with his experience operating a pro scheme at North Dakota State and having the tutelage of the likes of Doug Pederson and Frank Reich, Carson Wentz has been exceptional. Like Dak Prescott, Wentz has a strong offensive line to work with and it has given him a lot of clean plays to execute.

Unlike Prescott, Wentz has been forced to make more plays under duress and he's been given the green light to be aggressive downfield. Wentz has also proven a strong improviser in the passing game. Pittsburgh hoped it could blitz Wentz, drop into a zone, and ruffle the rookie (it still works on a veteran the likes of Andrew Luck more often than people realize) but it backfired.    

 

(By the way, can someone please digitally edit a skateboard under Darren Sproles' feet while he's weaving through the Steeler's secondary? It would be perfect Random Shots material for Joe Bryant.)

Wentz's offense in Philadelphia has a ton of similarities  to the one Alex Smith operates in Kansas City. The Eagles like to throw a lot of variety at the defense in terms of formations, shifts, and misdirection.

 

Wentz's experience with a variety of drops and play fakes helps him sell this offense well. He's also getting rid of the ball when pressured and most rookies tend to hold onto passes too long, especially in an offense where a lot of the work begins under center.

He has also shown significant improvement with his deep accuracy. When I studied his college tape, Wentz's footwork and timing were consistently off in the vertical game.

Thus far, his footwork has been sharp and his passes pinpoint—and I'm not talking NFL.com's Twitter PR version of "perfect" that's used to describe two underthrown Trevor Siemian passes later in this column. I'm talking about Bill Walsh, you've-gotta-be-kidding-me, pinpoint accuracy that he expected from Joe Montana to Jerry Rice. Wentz hit Dorial Green-Beckham with one of these throws in the end zone this weekend but the receiver dropped the touchdown after contact. 

Wentz is for real and I would have no problem starting him against Detroit or Washington. The first unit that likely confounds him will be Minnesota in Week 7. After that, Seattle in Week 11 and Cincinnati in Week 13 have the players to foil the rookie. Otherwise, I'm optimistic about what he can do.

3. Vikings offense sets its ignition timing at Halftime with its Rudolph Engine

At the end of the half in Charlotte, Vikings guard Alex Boone was helped off the field and carted to the locker room from the sideline due to knee and groin injuries. Kicker Blair Walsh continued his slump of missed field goals and point after attempts. And Carolina's pressure up the middle of the Minnesota line confounded Sam Bradford.

This was all I could see of the Vikings offense.

 

To the credit of Bradford, the offensive staff, and Boone, they all returned from halftime with the hull repaired, the water pumped from the ship, and a giant outboard motor with its timing set for peak performance. The unit ran more quick-hitting timing routes that allowed Bradford to rely on his embedded skills as a pro passer and he found Stefon Diggs and Kyle Rudolph multiple times to take the Vikings down the field for 13 points in the second half. 

There was a stretch where Bradford when 9-of-10. Although Diggs didn't have a big day against Carolina's strong defensive unit, I wouldn't be surprised if this weekend serves as a turning point for the Vikings when it comes to the way it handles this offense moving forward.

Minnesota's schedule isn't favorable for huge fantasy games in October, but if Bradford and company stay healthy through Week 7, they'll face Chicago and Detroit twice down the stretch as well as potential fantasy gifts of Jacksonville and Indianapolis.  Despite some difficult matchups to come, a lot of fantasy owners have written off Kyle Rudolph.

When I read that Rudolph was never really that good anyhow I think they must be talking about something other than football—whether they realize it or not. The Vikings tight end has always been at his best making plays in tight coverage with the ball in the air. We'll see a lot more of this over the next month, regardless of the matchup.

4. Don't write off Dexter McCluster

The Chargers lost a heartbreaker at Indianapolis this weekend. Although one could place some blame on cornerback Jason Verrett for getting schooled repeatedly by T.Y. Hilton, Philip Rivers did not have his best day.

After a great week in Jacksonville, Rivers missed a wide-open Melvin Gordon on a short in the right flat during the first half with nothing but open grass between Gordon and the end zone. This was Rivers' most egregious mistake and he could be seen on the sidelines after the play trying to work past it.

Rivers also missed another touchdown pass in the first half when he targeted Dexter McCluster on a double move up the left sideline. McCluster got wide open up the rail but the pass arrived a foot beyond his diving reach.

In the second half, Rivers found McCluster on a quick slant in the red zone and the Colts defense stopped the back less than a yard shy of the goal line. Although the newcomer fantasy story for the Chargers this weekend was Hunter Henry—a solid day as a receiver, but a false start and a lost fumble on consecutive plays with less than 90 seconds left that ended a potential game-sealing drive—McCluster's modest 2-catch, 9-yard day isn't something to write off during a season where injuries have hit fantasy rosters hard. 

McCluster has always been heralded has a smart football player who can take a concept from the chalkboard and perform it to perfection on the field. The Chargers need weapons and I don't think it will take more than a week or two for Rivers and McCluster get on the same page. McCluster has Woodhead's upside as a talent but I'll limit his ceiling to RB3 value.    

5. Dallas Rookie Progress Report

The Cowboys' rookie continues his poised play and the coaches are expanding Prescott's role. The NFL PR department is working overtime on this description of Prescott's throw to Cole Beasley, but the fact that it's the first pass greater than 20 yards in the air that the receiver has caught in the NFL—and one of the few Prescott's targets thrown of this distance—it's a positive development.  

 

I like that the Cowboys are using similar concepts for Beasley that the Saints use to get Willie Snead open on routes beyond 15 yards. It's also a good sign that the team is beginning to trust the rookie quarterback with a downfield passing game.

For the past two weeks, Dallas has used Dez Bryant as a short-range option on slants and they're trusting Prescott to know when it's there for the taking. 

 

I'm also enthused to see the team give the rookie opportunities to look off shorter routes and choose slower-developing deeper routes. Prescott is showing more confidence and range within the mental part of the game.

There will rough spots ahead. The Cowboys face teams with better defenses than the Bears and those coaches will have 3-5 weeks of tape on the rookie quarterback.

What I don't think they'll have is a solution to Ezekiel Elliott. As the Cowboys give Prescott opportunities to loosen up defenses, Elliott is earning bigger creases. I had a fantasy owner ask me last week "what is wrong with Elliott?" After answering "Nothing," I explained that until Prescott can do more to loosen up the defense, Elliott won't have the big nights he's capable of having.

Well my friend (you know who you are), enjoy...   

 

Although Elliott's form is better, I still like LeGarrette Blount's hurdles more. 

 

If there's any takeaway here, it's the fact that Elliott's fantasy output should steadily increase to his preseason expectations.  

6. Fresh Fish: Week 3

Fantasy football is a cruel place. We're always searching for that weakest link. While we don't want anyone facing the wrath of Hadley, we'd love nothing more than having our players face an opponent whose game has come unglued on the field.   

 

In the spirit of "The Shawshank Redemption," here is my short list of players and/or units that could have you chanting "fresh fish" when your roster draws the match-up: 

This Week's Trophy Fish...

The first player, Jason Verrett, is more like catching Moby Dick. There's no way I'd recommend him as an easy matchup, but the way T.Y. Hilton schooled Verrett on multiple routes—one of the better young cover corners in the league—sometimes you have to show off the trophy fish. Hilton earns that honor this week despite the fact that it would have been more appropriate if Verrett got the best of the Colts, considering how much Andrew Luck looks like Captain Ahab. 

 

 Although the catch was good, what the video doesn't show is the release at the line got turned Verrett around and left him helpless and overreacting to everything Hilton dictated. 

By game's end, Verrett was not in his right mind (nor healthy) and Hilton harpooned the Bolts. 

 

Fresh Fish of Note

CB Byron Maxwell: He's an excellent press corner but place him 3-6 yards off the receiver and ask him to play man and Maxwell struggles. The Dolphins have been asking Maxell to do this a lot and he has given up big plays.  

A.J. Green, Tajae Sharpe, and Antonio Brown are ahead for Maxwell. If the Dolphins don't let him press, he might be calling for mommy.

The Oakland Raiders Defense: I mentioned this in Friday's Best Of: Oakland's defense is a silver and black welcome mat—especially the right side of the right side of the defensive front against the run.  

Terrance West, Melvin Gordon, and Spencer Ware are next.

The San Diego Chargers Linebackers: Manti Te'o was already struggling against running backs in the passing game. Te'o tore his Achilles Tendon Sunday and Jatavis Brown was no match for Frank Gore. Heck, neither was Te'o against Gore on the ground before the injury. 

The Chargers linebackers routinely broke down too early in the crease and let Gore slip by them. There was a play early in the game where Gore worked past Te'o in the crease and you could see the linebacker throwing a tantrum face down on the turf like a four-year-old in a Wal-Mart. Oakland's backs, C.J. Anderson, and the Falcons' duo are on the docket. 

The Detroit Lions Linebackers: Tahir Whitehead plays middle linebacker like an edge rusher—and that's not a good thing. Whitehead is everywhere he shouldn't be against the run and it allowed the Green Bay Packers to bait him with wind-back plays for big yards. 

The Packers also got Jordy Nelson paired with weakside linebacker Thurston Armbrister pre-snap and the result was a 59-yard play. I may be dead wrong but if I'm Whitehead and I see Ambrister over Nelson in man coverage, I'm calling a timeout. And as the middle linebacker, it is the kind of thing I should notice. 

Among those next in line for a good time at the expense of the Lions defense: Zach Miller, Jordan Howard, Darren Sproles and the four-headed Eagles backfield, Brent Celek, Tavon Austin, and Todd Gurley. 

7. Marvin Jones' Career Day

One beneficiary of the Lions defense is fantasy owners of Matt Stafford and Marvin Jones—the No.1 fantasy QB and WR in standard and PPR formats after three weeks. That's what a 206-yard, 2-TD performance will do this early in the year.  

It was a great day. But someone has to note that Packers corner Damarious Randall still plays the position like a safety. It makes him a big play waiting to happen—both good and bad—depending on the pass and your point of view. 

Corners that can't play physical, tight man coverage are no match for a route runner of Jones' acumen. 

 

Top-notch corners will keep Jones in check—or at least make the Lions' receiver earn every yard of his production—but look for Jones and Stafford to remain a productive duo because of their skills and the Detroit defense creating garbage time. I saw Jones as a top-15 receiver before the season. I'll stick with that assessment because Randall, as good of a playmaker he can be for the Packers defense, was a trophy fish for the Lions receiver.

8. Tabloid Alerts

Every week, there are false narratives that I expect to hear about. They are storylines based on results rather than process. Here are three I believe are fit for a tabloid.   

Davante Parker's Rise: Parker caught a 26-yard touchdown in the first quarter of this game. This was a follow-up to his 100-yard performance the week prior. What you may not know about Parker's catch is that it came against a fourth-string, rookie UDFA cut by the Jaguars by the name of Briean Boddy-Calhoun. 

Parker got a free release from the line of scrimmage against the corner who was lined up tight on the receiver. Boddy-Calhoun should have jammed the receiver, but didn't put his hands on Parker until late in the route—and the foul he committed was so weak that didn't even prevent the touchdown. 

To Parker's credit, he demonstrated good footwork outside before breaking inside and turning the corner around. This play accounted for half of Parker's production this weekend and until I see Parker use his hands against a veteran defender, I'm not buying his progress. 

Carson Palmer's Decline: The Cardinals' quarterback threw four interceptions against a Bills defense that the Jets passing game lit up like the sky on the Fourth of July. What you may not realize is that three of Palmer's interceptions came on throws into the end zone and two of them were the result of route errors by David Johnson and Michael Floyd. 

The Cardinals failed to exploit the Bills defense like the Jets for three reasons. First, the Bills were more disciplined about keeping the Cardinals receivers in front of them. Second, the Jets attacked the Bills deep on the perimeter while the Cardinals spent the first, three quarters trying to beat the Bills deep in the middle of the field. Third, the Bills forced Carson Palmer off his spot in the pocket and the result was off-target throws in the short zones.

While I have concerns about John Brown and Michael Floyd's performances early on, I'm not abandoning this passing game because of a week that involved poor execution by two wide receivers and a defense that corrected some of its glaring issues.

Green Bay's Offensive Rebound: Aaron Rodgers is still great, Jordy Nelson is returning to form, and there's enough talent between Randall Cobb, Davante Adams, and Richard Rodgers to keep this unit humming. But I wouldn't say leap from No.9 to No.2 in the quarterback fantasy totals for Rodgers is because the offense has turned a corner. 

The Lions defense is bad. Eddie Lacy's 100-yard performance on the ground owes a big debt to Detroit's linebackers and the corps poor run fits. The Packers tried to get Jared Cook involved and he couldn't win a one-on-one up the seam that should have been a touchdown. On another open target, Cook was late getting his hands up and the ball bounced off his shoulder pads. He limped off the field after that. 

I would not want to have either of these players on my teams this year. 

I'm not saying the Packers passing game and offense won't be good. I am saying that the truth lies somewhere in between the Vikings and Lions games.

Rodgers-to-Nelson? Absolutely. Everyone else? I'm not sold. 

9. Cleveland's two-headed Quarterback

It's not really a two-headed situation, but fantasy owners with Terrelle Pryor enjoyed the receiver's opportunities at quarterback. The Brown's injury woes translated into rushing, passing, and receiving yardage for Pyror—including red zone looks. Expect it to continue until Josh McCown returns. 

Rookie quarterback Cody Kessler had a rough start. The offense opened with a delay of game penalty because Kessler was asked to perform a complete shift of the formation before the snap (way to over-complicate things for a rookie on his first play—coaching ego out of control). On the same drive, Kessler was sacked and stripped. 

But to Kessler's credit, he made some nice reads of the Dolphins' blitz and found open receivers down field. He also delivered a perfect rainbow fade in the end zone to Gary Barnidge Kessler held onto the ball too long on a few drops and bad things happened but between him and Pryor, I'm not sure all is lost with Cleveland's skill players. 

In addition to Kessler's reads and mobility in the pocket, Pryor's legs opened things up for Isaiah Crowell. The Browns offense will be a matchup-dictated group of fantasy options and the return of Josh Gordon should still prove helpful. 

10. Is Trevor Siemian For real? 

As a fantasy quarterback? Marginally so. As a delivery mechanism to Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas? Absolutely. These two plays below illustrate my points above perfectly. 

Neither touchdown is a perfect pass (although the NFL's PR department labeled the one to Sanders "perfect" on Twitter). Both targets are delivered behind the receivers and if the coverage was tighter, it's far less likely that either player converts. 

 

But what I love about these plays is Siemian's recognition of the situation. The young quarterback sees the field well and he's good in the pocket.

The touchdown to Sanders came on a blitz to the right side of the line. Siemian slid to the left and deliver the ball in rhythm to Sanders.

Keep in mind, that left tackle Russell Okung missed this series with a back injury and the entire line was shuffled during this drive. That's intelligence, poise, and skill. 

I still have doubts that Siemian can hold off Paxton Lynch long-term but if I could get my hands on Emmanuel Sanders this year, I'd do it. He and Marvin Jones are a similar style of player and I think it meshes best with Siemian's play and this offense. 

Tags:Analysis
Underdog Fantasy Deposit Match

More by Matt Waldman

Roundtable Week 18: 2024 Bold Predictions

Matt Waldman, Jan 4, 2024

Roundtable Week 18: 2024 Offseason Points of Intrigue

Matt Waldman, Jan 4, 2024

Roundtable Week 18: Perception or Reality?

Matt Waldman, Jan 4, 2024

Most Recent

Biggest NFL Draft First Round Fantasy Winners and Losers Ricky Pearsall, San Francisco 49ers - Instant NFL Draft Reaction Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs - Instant NFL Draft Reaction Brian Thomas Jr, Jacksonville Jaguars - Instant NFL Draft Reaction Marvin Harrison Jr. Drafted By Arizona Cardinals Brock Bowers Drafted By Las Vegas Raiders - Instant NFL Draft Reaction Malik Nabers, New York Giants - Instant Reaction Rome Odunze Drafted By Chicago Bears - Instant NFL Draft Reaction Drake Maye, New England Patriots - Instant NFL Draft Reaction