The Best Of Week 2

Photo: Bob Donnan, USA Today Sports

You guys have a ton of articles. 

This statement about Footballguys is a blessing but it can feel like a curse. Our staff delivers insights that change seasons for the better yet realistically, no fantasy owner has the time to read everything we publish in a week. 

If this describes you, let me be your scout. Here are seven insights from Footballguys articles that I find compelling for the weekend ahead. I'll share what should help you this week, touch on the long-term outlook, and sometimes offer a counterargument.  

1. The C.J. Anderson Gravy Train Is Operating at Full Speed 

Mark Wimer and Joe Bryant list the Broncos runner as a great matchup against the struggling Colts defense this weekend, citing that Indianapolis gave up 116 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Lions in the opener and it dovetails with the unit's 2015 average of 122 yards allowed per game. With the Broncos at home, the weather pleasant, and Anderson working over a strong Carolina Panthers defense to the tune of 24 touches, 139 total yards, and 2 scores, Footballguys is optimistic that Anderson delivers another RB1 performance this weekend. Justin Bonnema, author of Footballguys' DFS feature The Fade, thinks "it's reasonable to expect Anderson to have a multi-score game." 

My Advice: The one question you might have about Anderson and the Broncos is the high-powered, Colts' offense and its impact on the game script in a way that could force Denver to lean on second-year passer Trevor Siemian at the expense of Anderson's potential. While possible, the Broncos still sports one of the best pass defenses in the league, the Colts' offensive line is far weaker than the Panthers' unit, and Anderson is a reliable part of the receiving game for a young quarterback who has done a good job of getting rid of the ball fast and looking to his check-downs. Unless the Colts shock the Broncos and build a three-touchdown lead in the first half, expect Anderson to remain the focal point of the offense and a good fantasy RB1.

2. Rookie Wide receivers Are Walkin' The Walk And making Pasquino's Money Talk

Jeff Pasquino's Money Talks feature is devoted to a subject that fantasy owners ask tons of questions about, waiver wire spending strategies and player bid recommendations. Although there is no high-dollar talent on Pasquino's or Sigmund Bloom's radar this week, a trio of rookie receivers has caught Pasquino's eye as potential bye-week options with immediate match-up starter potential in most league formats: Will Fuller, Tajae Sharpe, and Michael Thomas. 

Pasquino recommends bidding nearly 20 percent of Free Agent Acquisition Budgets (FAAB) on Fuller; nearly 15 percent for Sharpe; and 10 percent on Thomas. He astutely cited Fuller's 11 targets in the opener, Fuller's speed, and the way the Texans used the receiver in the offense. Sharpe also earned 11 targets for the Titans and Pasquino describes the rookies as "a solid WR3 pickup, especially in PPR leagues." Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead stole the spotlight from Thomas with huge days but Thomas' 58-yard debut on 6 targets, which he caught all of them, is a promising start in an offense that will have to pass a lot to stay in the game. 

My Advice: I couldn't agree more with Pasquino about these three players. What's fascinating about the trio is that from a standpoint of refined talent, Thomas would be the first guy and Fuller the third guy. But these three are a good example of how team fit and early production will have an influence on value. 

Fuller dropped a wide open target that, if caught, had a strong likelihood of becoming an 80-yard touchdown reception. The Texans' rookie has been known for dropping passes because he doesn't consistently use the correct position with his hands based on the location of the target. This is a correctable issue. Moreover, Ted Ginn Jr had a good fantasy year in 2015 despite dropping a lot of targets because the Panthers understood that Ginn's explosive plays helped the team more than his drops hurt it and I believe the Texans have the same view of Fuller. The rookie is a boom-bust knockout artist with low-end WR2 upside in 12-team leagues.

Sharpe is the best route runner of the trio. He's graceful and reliable in traffic despite having a wiry build. He was clearly Marcus Mariota's primary option against a tough Vikings defense. If you're seeking a steady option in terms of volume, he could be the best choice this year.

Thomas is arguably the best combination of physical and technical skills and he has the best quarterback by far. When it comes to top quarterbacks in great offenses, the concern about "too mouths to feed" is a fallacy. Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Brees have supported more than three starting-caliber receiving options in the same season in recent years. Thomas' upside appears the least appealing after Week 1 because Willie Sneak's numbers overshadowed the rookie's, but don't be surprised if Thomas's reason-long production isn't far from matching the other two in this recommended trio of first-year options.

3. Lane Johnson's Season still has life and it enhances Ryan Mathews' value

As Matt Bitonti mentioned last week, the testing agency can't find Lane Johnson's B-sample and it's forced the NFL to allow Johnson on the field until it's found. Ryan Mathews wasn't fantastic last week but he produced as the No.14 RB just as David Dodds projected.  Dodds has Matthews at 14th on his RB list again this week and with Johnson enhancing the offensive line's ranking as the No.2 unit on Bitonti's list, it's a good match-up with the Bears' No.19 defensive front.

My Advice: Same as last week and until the NFL finds Johnson's sample, this is a decent enough showcase for Mathews it's strengthening your chances to sell high by midseason—especially if Carson Wentz plays steady football. I'm preaching patience on Mathews' trade value building but if you can get a good deal now, take it. 

4. Oh By the Way: Roll with Emmanuel Sanders and Virgil Green, Too

Jeff Haseley lays out the situation well in his weekly feature Fantasy Overview: 

The word out of Denver is that Demaryius Thomas has a hip injury that could cost him some missed time. At best, he'll have to manage the injury and undergo rehabilitation. This could be enough for him to see a reduction in snaps/targets, that could mean a bump in productivy for Sanders, who led the team with 8 targets in Week 1. Oh yes, Denver hosts the Colts this week, who have injury concerns of their own, especially in the secondary.

Green earns the Sleeper Tag from Sigmund Bloom:

 Green should have had a score to cap a nice Week 1, and Week 2 will bring even more opportunity because Broncos top red zone receiver Demaryius Thomas is battling a hip injury. The Colts allowed a score toEric Ebron last week, and between the problems they have shown tackling and the issues they have on the depth chart, Green is one of the best bets at tight end to have a good Week 2. He also faces a much easier matchup than the Carolina linebacker corps from Week 1, which is clearly one of the best in the league.

My Advice: Sanders has always been the more technically sound route runner of the tandem. Cecil Lammey, who covers Broncos practice as one of his jobs, told me Thursday that Thomas can run well on vertical routes and he could run a decent slant. But when it came to hard-breaking timing routes like the comeback, Cecil said, "Thomas looked like you or me trying to show someone how to run a comeback route." 

Not good, especially when Trevor Siemian is best at the precision routes. Not all is lost for Thomas owners because Thomas looked markedly better the next day. Even so, Siemian isn't an aggressive, vertical thrower of the ball, which pairs best with Sanders and the underneath targets.

Much of Denver's offense against the Panthers was predicated on yards after the catch. Lammey charted the Colts-Lions game last week and noted that most of the Lions' production came on short and intermediate passing with yards after the catch. This dovetails well with what Siemian wants to do and what Sanders, Green, and C.J. Anderson are good at. 

5. The Game Predictor Likes Washington, Atlanta, and Arizona's Offenses This week

If "Q" from Ian Fleming's 007 novels were a real person, his real name (or is it an alias) would have been David Dodds and he would have left the agency to become the co-founder of a fantasy football site with the owner of a family boat business.

"The Game Predictor is our primary tool to establish how each team will attempt to play their game (rush/pass) that week," says Dodds, who explains that it factors in an opponent, YTD data, recent games played, critical injury information, home/away situations and more. "I believe it to be one of the best simulation tools available on the internet and has been refined since it's birth on the mrfootball.com website 16 years ago."

I spoke with Dodds about the Game Predictor in greater detail and one of the most important takeaways is it's at its strongest as the season progresses and the data is updated based on the changes to the team and how they've taken effect this year. At this point, a lot of the data is rooted in last year's performances. 

So as the season progresses, we're going to see some things stand out in a big way with the help of Game Predictor. Right now, it's more of a pick-your-spots approach.

With that said, three teams stood out this week:

The Washington and Arizona attacks are essentially the same as last year. Despite the addition of Mohamed Sanu and center Alex Mack, who should fortify the passing attack and ground game, there has been little change for the Falcons.  

Looking at Dodds projections after he made some tweaks that accounted for news this week, here's how he projects the three quarterbacks:

Player (Positional ranking) Comp-Att-Yds-TDs-INT

• Kirk Cousins (No.10 QB) 24-35-272-1.7-0.9
• Carson Palmer (No.4 QB) 25-37-297-2-0.7
• Matt Ryan (No.14 QB) 24-37-278-1.7-0.9

My Advice: you picked Palmer as your QB, don't waiver on starting him in Week 2 at home against the Buccaneers.  With Atlanta's Week 1 opponent facing the Cardinals, we're about to find out this week if Atlanta's poor rushing performance was a continuation of its lackluster play down the stretch on 2015 or Tampa's defense is a tougher draw. 

6. Need a tight end? Grab Dennis Pitta now   

One of Pasquino's bargain moves of note is the return of the former Pro Bowler and Joe Flacco favorite. He recommended investing between 8-10 percent of FAAB for the veteran who has successfully returned from his second hip injury. Although Pitta only earned 39 yards against the bills, he caught 3 of 4 targets, and Pasquino understands the connection PItta and Flacco have in open zones, especially the red zone. 

My Advice: Our Ravens-Bills game summary reveals that Pitta earned twice as many snaps as Crocket Gillmore. One of those catches was described as "a big play down the seam making a back shoulder catch for a gain of 27" and our staffer covering the Ravens expects "Pitta to be Flacco's second-most popular target behind Mike Wallace." 

I can envision that happening. Before PItta's injuries in 2013-2014, he was the No.7 fantasy tight end in 2012 with a 101-target, 61-catch, 669-yard season that included 7 touchdowns.

What's fascinating to me is that the Ravens have brought in a lot of promising tight ends after Pitta got hurt in 2014 but they still had the patience to wait and see if would return to health. It's a sign of how much the team values Pitta's hands, blocking, and skill to find open zones that a lot of younger, more athletic options struggle to do. 

Pitta is the type of player you should considering adding if you have the likes of Rob Gronkowski, Jordan Reed, or Greg Olsen and your team is lacking depth or struggling at other positions—especially if you couldn't acquire help this week. The reason it's a good (and cheap) medium-term strategy is due to the appeal of your top-flight tight end. If PItta starts turning in TE1 production on a consistent basis, you can trade your higher profile tight end options for players you aren't landing as free agents.

7. Beware of Thomas Rawls, but prepare for Russell Wilson to surprise 

Although the game summary observed Thomas Rawls showing power between the tackles, the projection team of Dodds, Bloom and Tremblay have Rawls No.17, No.17, and No.25 respectively against the Rams this week. In addition to the Christine Michael playing well enough to earn signifcant time at Rawls' expense, the trenches tell the story. Bitonti has the Seattle offensive line as his worst unit in the NFL and the Los Angeles defense as one of his top five fronts.  

By Sunday evening, there was speculation that Wilson might miss Week 2 with an ankle sprain he suffered during the fourth quarter of the Miami game. He didn't appear capable of driving the ball with any velocity in the waning minutes of his comeback victory. But Jene Bramel explained in his Week 2 Injury Rounds that all might not be lost for Wilson.

"The next 24 hours are the most critical," said Bramel, noting that if Wilson could practice on Wednesday or Thursday, he'll likely play and play well. "If not, he's likely very limited if he's able to go at all."

Wilson practice Wednesday and while Tremblay and Dodds don't have Wilson listed as a starter value in even larger league formats, Bloom has Wilson ranked 12th.  Mark Wimer and Joe Bryant describe the Rams defense as a "Good Matchup" and that's with the uncertainty about the sprained ankle baked into the analysis. 

While Doug Baldwin was the only game in town clicking with Russell Wilson in a major way last week, Justin Howe notes in this week's DFS Roundtable that Lockett's subpar outing is likely an outlier. 

I also like Tyler Lockett's shot at a Week 2 mulligan. His eight targets were solid - pretty much in line with preseason expectations - but I think he'll see more room to operate in a more wide-open game. This matchup is touted for its defensive showdown, but they've posted 65- and 54-point totals over the last two years of the series. There will be far more red zone scoring opportunity here and a lot more than 17 yards for Lockett. He has, by most accounts, developed into a truly dynamic downfield target in addition to his burgeoning slot prowess. His 8-target games going forward should yield far, far more upside than we saw last week.

I also think Jimmy Graham looked better than I expected once the Seahawks finally put him into the game. His athletic ability wasn't tested significantly but he moved well enough that I didn't have any "rut-roh Raggy" moments in my head about his recovery. Seattle appeared to be playing it cautious with most of its returning players last week. Expect this week to be a bigger unveiling of its regulars. 

My Advice: Before reading Bramel's analysis, I wasn't considering Wilson this week. Despite the optimism, I'm thinking twice. Wilson threw three touchdowns and rushed for 70 yards in two games against the Rams last year. If this injury is a low ankle sprain, Wilson could heal fast enough that the majority of fantasy owners are too cautious about his prospects.  

Although the Rams gave up 150 yards and 3 touchdowns on the ground against the 49ers and it's worth noting that , it's worth noting that Bitonti has a B+ grade for the 49ers ability to run block. The front neutralized and frustrated star defender Aaron Donald to the point of an ejection.

Bitonti's run-blocking grade for the Seahawks is a D-. Although Rawls may earn the majority of carries, I'm not expecting Seattle to reduce Christine share to a crumb and Rawls' served a four-course meal. Rawls is startable in three-back lineups, but don't presume he's ready to produce to the high-end RB2 average draft position that he had for most of the summer.