Waiting on quarterbacks has become a very popular strategy in drafts.
Unless you're playing in a 2QB league or drafting Andrew Luck/Aaron Rodgers, you're unlikely to be picking a quarterback before the seventh or eighth round. Using the ADP of MFL leagues on MyFantasyLeague.com, only Luck and Rodgers rank inside the top 50, with Russell Wilson the only other quarterback inside the top 60. Even Peyton Manning and Drew Brees fall outside the top 60 picks, while just eight quarterbacks in total rank in the top 100.
Waiting on quarterbacks allows you to pick up players such as Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Newton, Philip Rivers, Ryan Tannehill, Tom Brady, Eli Manning and Matthew Stafford at a discount even though they're established starters. The strategy becomes more intriguing when you wait further though.
Two of the more fascinating picks after the crowd of established starters are Colin Kaepernick and Robert Griffin III III. Kaepernick checks in at 138th, the 16th quarterback overall, in the MFL ADP. Griffin is much further down the rankings, as he checks in at 194th, the 26th quarterback in the league behind players such as Derek Carr, Alex Smith, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Carson Palmer and Andy Dalton. Griffin shares a tier with Nick Foles and Blake Bortles, essentially the bottom tier for fantasy quarterbacks.
It's easy to explain the difference between Kaepernick and Griffin. There is no concern over Kaepernick's status as the San Francisco 49ers starter. He struggled a lot as a passer last season, but he still ranked 16th overall in scoring amongst quarterbacks. Kaepernick isn't a good option, but he hasn't missed time through injury to this point in his career and the 49ers' other option at quarterback is Blaine Gabbert.
Griffin and Kaepernick are tied together for obvious reasons. Both are very dangerous rushing threats, or at least have been in the past in Griffin's case, so their potential value in fantasy likely surpasses their actual value to their teams. Even though Griffin is the riskier pick, that risk is offset by the value you gain in selecting him so much later in the draft than Kaepernick. More importantly, his upside should be considered higher than Kaepernicks for a couple of reasons.
Firstly, because of the retirements and departures in free agency, the 49ers' supporting cast on offense isn't what it once was. Without Mike Iupati, Anthony Davis and Frank Gore, Kaepernick won't sit in a situation that masks his limitations to still make him a productive passer. In Griffin's case, his supporting cast is one of the better units in the NFL. It could prove to be the best if a couple of things develop as intended. Adding Brandon Scherff to the offensive line alongside Trent Williams will not only improve the pass protection and run blocking of the line, it will also allow the offense to be even more creative with its screen designs.
With Alfred Morris in the backfield and a cast of explosive receivers, Griffin has a better supporting cast than Kaepernick to be a productive passer.
Secondly, Griffin is entering his second season in Jay Gruden's scheme. That transition was a huge task for the young quarterback last season. In Kyle Shanahan's offense, his reads were much simpler and he primarily threw off of play action against distorted coverages. In Gruden's offense, he needed to make more expansive reads from the pocket while throwing with anticipation to create throwing windows also. Kaepernick shouldn't be running a radically different offense to the one he has run in San Francisco over the years, but he has proven to be borderline incompetent at times when asked to be a dropback passer. He fails to come off his first read and he has no subtlety with his actions in the pocket.
Griffin has had similar struggles, but shown much more ability as a quarterabck in understanding the nuances of the position. Griffin can also point to health as a major contributing factor to his struggles as a player whereas Kaepernick's struggles are more reflective of his skill set.
The three quarterbacks who played in Gruden's offense last season combined for 4,461 yards and 18 touchdown passes. Those yards would have ranked sixth in the league if achieved by one quarterback, while 18 touchdowns would have tied for 19th. It's not unreasonable to suggest that Griffin would have outperformed both McCoy and Cousins if fully healthy and available for 16 games in the same system. Neither McCoy or Cousins are viable starters in the NFL, Griffin may have had his issues, but he wasn't the second overall pick in his draft just because he could run.
With any quarterback and his production, you want to understand how much of it comes on easy plays. Plays where it doesn't matter who is playing quarterback because any competent player at this level could execute the play.
Gruden creates a lot of easy yards for his quarterback, largely by relying on screen plays. Washington threw a huge number of screens last year. They were able to because of the types of receivers they have. Each of Pierre Garcon, DeSean Jackson and Andre Roberts can turn simple tosses underneath into big plays downfield. When you combine Alfred Morris' threat as a runner to incorporate play action into those passes, the space that Gruden creates and the simplistic requirements he puts on his quarterback create easy completions and easy yardage.
Against the Dallas Cowboys last season, Griffin had 336 yards. That number was bloated by two huge screen passes that resulted in 116 yards.
The first results in 47 yards and is thrown to Garcon in the slot. Gruden uses play action to the far side of the field from a heavy-set formation to pull the defense away from Garcon. The athleticism of left tackle Trent Williams allows him to be the lead blocker for Garcon. Williams actually escapes so far outside that he takes his assignment out in line with the numbers. When Garcon makes a defender miss in space on the second level, he can escape to the sideline for a huge gain. Nothing Griffin did on this play was exceptionally difficult. He still needed to act on time and deliver an accurate pass, but he was comfortably able to do that.
The second screen was exactly the same, but this time the play fake drew more of the defense away and Jackson was the target instead of Garcon. Jackson's greater speed allowed him to trot into the endzone from 69 yards away.
Thirdly, Griffin's raw ability as a passer and runner has eclipsed Kaepernick when both were enjoying their peaks in the past. Even surpassed that, Griffin's play towards the end of last season offered more reasons to believe in his upside moving forward than Kaepernick's did throughout the season as a whole. Buying into Griffin's ability isn't solely based on what he did during his rookie season, even if it is a significant percentage of it.
For as much as Griffin struggled last season, he still showed off an ability to throw precision passes downfield. He is one of the most talented deep passers in the NFL when his footwork is disciplined and decisive. Against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 16, he had two outstanding deep throws to DeSean Jackson for huge gains. Both passes showed off Griffin's arm strength, but also his ability to control the trajectory of his passes and place them in ideal spots. Griffin's arm talent allows him to throw any kind of pass to any area of the field. His arm may not be as strong as Colin Kaepernick's, but it's not far behind with more control and accuracy.
He was particularly impressive pushing the ball downfield after play action.
Although Griffin's biggst issue last season was working from the pocket, there were still examples of his ability to read defenses, make good decisions and place the ball accurately for his receivers. On this play, he works through his reads correctly before throwing Roberts open by intentionally placing the ball behind him to lead him back towards space. Roberts was able to escape downfield for another huge gain.
Similar to his play from the pocket, Griffin also flashed his athleticism on occasion.
Health is the only major reason to pass on Griffin late in drafts. Not trusting his durability at this point is a fair action, but he is at least entering the year healthy after finishing last season healthy. If Griffin is truly injury prone, then his career will likely be marred for the foreseeable future. If he's simply endured a rough stretch of misfortune, his value as a late round pick could supercede any other player's in fantasy this year.
If any draft pick is based on risk, reward and cost, Griffin is one of the best this year.
