The first round of the 2014 draft was a good one.
Jadeveon Clowney, the first player taken in the draft, has had the beginning of his career severely limited by various injuries. Plenty of players have stepped up to pick up the slack though. Khalil Mack, Sammy Watkins, Jake Matthews, Blake Bortles, Anthony Barr, Mike Evans, Odell Beckham, Aaron Donald and Zack Martin are all on course to live up to expectations from those taken amongst the top 16 picks. There are some notable names amongst that top 16 who are sliding in the wrong direction.
Maybe the least talked about player from that round is Detroit Lions tight end Eric Ebron. Ebron was selected with the 10th overall pick in the draft, ahead of Beckham, Donald and Martin.
So far in his career, the tight end has accumulated 596 yards and four touchdowns on 54 receptions. He has largely been healthy, playing in 22 of a possible 27 regular season games. As a rookie, Ebron wasn't a full-time starter. He played significant snaps, but was consistently rotated on and off the field. Ahead of his second season, expectations were that the tight end would become a key component of the offense. Through nine games this season, Ebron has 29 receptions for 348 yards and three touchdowns.
Those are modest numbers, but they still flatter his performances.
Ebron has been targeted 48 times this season so far. Of those 48, only 39 have been catchable. Because one of Ebron's receptions was negated by a penalty, this means that Stafford has thrown the same number of uncatchable passes to Ebron that the tight end has failed to catch, nine. While Ebron has failed to catch nine catchable passes, his quarterback hasn't consistently helped him. Stafford stresses his receivers' ball skills with consistently poor ball placement and an inability to measure the velocity of his passes.
For a tight end/receiver such as Ebron, that is a major problem. Ebron came out of college as a raw receiver with impressive athleticism. He wasn't a refined catcher of the ball or route runner. He has so far shown no issues getting open in the NFL, but it's those ball skills that are curtailing his production.
This is the type of throw that Ebron is typically asked to work with. Stafford escapes the pocket and looks for Ebron down the sideline. The tight end is covered in such a way that he requires a backshoulder throw to make a comfortable reception. Stafford attempts to make that throw, but his accuracy is off. His pass is thrown with the right amount of velocity, but it lands inside of the defensive back rather than towards the sideline. Ebron has to work through the defensive back to get to the ball.
Ebron's initial actions are impressive. He adjusts to theb pass and works his body into a position where he is between the defender and the ball. However, it's at this point when his ball skills let him down.
It's not always a required action from pass catchers to pluck the ball out of the air with their hands extended away from their body. Body catching can be more beneficial for a receiver if he wants to catch the ball in stride and continue downfield. However, there are instances when a receiver must use his hands to catch the ball. This was one of those occasions.
By lowering his body to try and get level with the arriving pass, Ebron sets himself up to fail. He can't keep his hands beneath the ball and cradle it into his chest because he is trying to both locate the ball with his hands and push it back into his chest. Both of those actions while falling to the ground are significantly tougher to execute than those of a receiver who simply extends his hands away from his body, maintains his balance and advanes through the ball infield.
At just 22 years of age, Ebron can still develop better ball skills, but he is likely always going to remain an unnatural catcher of passes. Stafford's accuracy and control of his velocity isn't something that will change though. He is too far into his career to rationally expect him to improve.
What this means for Ebron's value is that his production is always going to be stunted so long as he remains in Detroit, presuming that Stafford remains the team's quarterback. For Ebron to offer great value in Detroit, he will need to improve his ball skills significant. If that happens, or if he leaves Detroit and plays with a higher class of quarterback, the tight end will have a chance to be a good fantasy starter in spite of his drop issues.
Ebron will still have a chance for the same reason he was drafted so high, his athleticism.
While being unnatural at the catch point, Ebron's movement skills are impressive for a 6'4", 255 lb person. When playing fast, Ebron is one of the tougher tight ends to stop. Of his 29 receptions this season, 13 have gone for 10 yards or more. Ebron has a season-long reception of 55 yards and another reception of 29 yards when working down the seam against zone coverage. In the above play, Ebron scores a 12-yard touchdown.
The tight end not only shows off fluidity and quickness to run a horizontal double move route after extending what initially looked like a curl route, but he followed that up with the power and aggression to work through safety Andrew Sendejo before extending to break the plane of the endzone.
It's rare that you find a player with such a huge frame who can move that quickly at that speed with such fluidity. It's even rarer when you can find a player who fits that criteria but who also shows some subtlety in his route running and body control. It doesn't always take experience or extensive coaching to create this kind of nuance, some players just have a natural feel for creating separation and using their athletic gifts.
On both of these plays, Ebron doesn't simply run away from a linebacker or overpower a defensive back in his route. In the first play, he runs a strong stem before setting himself up tight to the defenders body so he can make a sharp cut towards the sideline. He comes wide open, perfectly playing the route against the coverage the defense was playing against him. Unfortunately for Ebron, this play also highlights the other side of his skill set as he drops a perfect pass from Stafford without a defender in his vicinity.
The second play shows Ebron working against press coverage from the slot. Once again he works upfield and puts himself in position to make a sharp cut across the field. His footwork is excellent on this occasion. He is able to perfectly time his cut and make a decisive movement away from the defender before catching the ball to turn upfield.
At this point it's clear that the Lions shouldn't have taken Ebron as high as they did. He is not going to be a Rob Gronkowski-type of tight end or even someone who could mimic the impact of Jimmy Graham who is closer to a wide receiver than a tight end.
Ebron shares traits with Graham. He largely plays away from the offensive linemen in tight positions. 26 of his targets this season have come when he lined up in the slot, one more came wide to the right and another wide to the left. Ebron was comfortable no matter where he ran routes from and ran a variety of routes with impressive precision. He has the potential to be like Graham, but Graham's huge production came in a much better offense than the one Ebron currently plays in.
