Dak Prescott stole the spotlight during the preseason. He eclipsed Carson Wentz, Christian Hackenberg and Jared Goff, making many question why his peers were drafted ahead of him in the first place. Prescott only got the opportunity to shine in the preseason because Kellen Moore broke his leg. Prescott would still have played but he wouldn't have started the first game if Moore had been available, playing extensively with the first team instead of the second team. Tony Romo's injury against the Seattle Seahawks will give Prescott hte chance to extend his sample size into the regular season.
The Dallas Cowboys quarterback will be one of the biggest storylines in the NFL during Week 1. Will his play carry over or will his warts be exposed? More importantly, can we trust him in fantasy?
Even with Romo, the Cowboys would be a run-heavy team this year. Ezekiel Elliott was selected in the top five of the 2016 draft to be the team's feature back behind a dominant offensive line. Prescott's value off of that will come in taking deep shots to Dez Bryant and as a runner. Although he's not Robert Griffin III III during his prime, Prescott can take advantage of space that develops in front of him. He should be used on some read-option plays and have scrambling opportunities after hard play fakes.
This type of play was prominent for Prescott through the preseason. His athleticism allows him to comfortably carry out the play fake before throwing the ball accurately to an open receiver downfield. Prescott hasn't shown off precision accuracy, he won't throw his receivers open like Romo or consistently hit timing routes perfectly to exploit tighter windows. What Prescott does do is aggressively find his receivers when he can see them in space. That's not something the Cowboys' backup quarterbacks did last year.
Confidence can do a lot for you as a quarterback. The trio of quarterbacks who tried to replace Romo last year were too often hesitant with the ball whether inside or outside of the pocket. It wasn't their accuracy or decision-making that beat them, not that they were good in those areas either, their fear in the pocket prevented them from ever reaching that point of the play.
Although it was in the preseason, Prescott has shown off this aggressive style both in and outside of the pocket.
When Romo was injured against the Seattle Seahawks, Prescott stepped in to play against the Seahawks first-team defense for the best part of three quarters. This was Prescott's most impressive play. On Second-and-13, Prescott takes the ball from shotgun and drops back in the pocket. A defender comes free up the middle and is in position to disrupt Prescott's line of vision and impact his mechanics as he attempts to release the ball.
Both of Prescott's feet stay planted in the ground and he maintains his balance to put his full weight into the throw. Prescott's intended receiver isn't wide open. Brice Butler catches the ball 15 yards downfield in a soft spot of the Seahawks zone coverage.
Expecting Prescott to consistently pick apart zone coverages is unrealistic based on the offense he ran in college. However, making this play in Seattle against the Seahawks defense offers a glimpse at what he could eventually develop into. Asking Prescott to make these types of plays now will result in interceptions as defenses bait him into bad throws, all rookies suffer that fate, but that's the benefit of playing for the Cowboys.
Having a dominant run game will allow Prescott to focus on three things: running the ball himself, safe, clearly-defined short throws and safe, clearly-defined deep shot plays.
The Cowboys adapted their playbook to Prescott's skill set during the preseason. Adapting your playbook is often talked about like it's this huge operation when in reality it's not that difficult to run the ball more, use play action more, incorporate screens and designed runs. Prescott doesn't need some new designs that required creativity and very precise rules. He can just run typical read-option or quarterback draw/power plays that the Cowboys would run with Elliott. In the above gif, the Cowboys used Prescott on a zone-read.
Prescott makes a good decision at the perfect time. The defensive end who is left unblocked at the top of the screen never even considers that the quarterback could keep the ball.
Defending these plays will be extremely difficult for opposing defenses. Elliott's acceleration will make it tough for the edge defender to always catch him before he reaches the line of scrimmage. That will make teams more reluctant to use their inside linebackers to track the quarterback outside. If the edge defender stays outside to account for Prescott on every snap, Elliott will benefit from the numbers advantage created inside.
On this specific play you can see how the Seahawks' three linebackers are held by Elliott's presence and taken out of the play. The added wrinkle comes from tight end Jason Witten. Witten releases passed the unblocked edge defender to engage the nearest defensive back. Witten has declined physically over recent years but he can still dominate defensive backs as a blocker. He seals off a running lane for Prescott who gains an easy nine yards.
Prescott has also shown off an understanding of when to run and how to set up his opportunities to run. His movement in the pocket and use of his eyes once he is outside of the pocket on this touchdown run are both very impressive traits.
One of the benefits Prescott projects to have this year that the Cowboys backups didn't have last year is a fully healthy Dez Bryant. Bryant is going to thrive in an offense that forces the defense to focus on the running game. Chunk plays through YAC and on plays downfield should come with regularlity. The above play highlights Bryant's value to Prescott. Prescott is an aggressive passer but not a precise passer. He shows patience in the pocket on this play and pushed the ball to Bryant down the sideline. His ball placement is poor though.
Bryant adjusts to the ball and stays inbounds to scurry his way into the endzone for a touchdown.
Developing a relationship with Bryant will be crucial for Prescott's fantasy value. The Cowboys have a limited receiving corps on the whole but Bryant's presence along with the dominant offensive line makes Dallas one of the best places in the league to be a quarterback. While the Cowboys don't have great receivers complementing Bryant, they do have big-play options who will fit with the type of offense the Cowboys want to run with Prescott.
Prescott is going to be an inconsistent producer. There are two threats to his output: His own performance and the chance that the running back group combines for 30+ carries. Prescott will be a low-cost, high upside play in Daily Fantasy and a worthwhile matchup piece in season-long fantasy if you are a Romo owner in a 16-team or 20-team league/2QB league. There will probably be better options in 12-team leagues.
