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Daily Fantasy Football is back for 2016 and FanDuel offers a variety of cash and tournament contests. Projecting player ownership to build lineups is an integral strategy to long-term success. Here are the key players for Week 5:
THE CHALK PLAYS
Tom Brady (at CLE), $8,700: Brady is back for the Patriots with an enviable matchup. While on the road, the Browns have allowed 10 passing touchdowns (third-most in the NFL) and have forced just 1.5 sacks per game, well below the NFL average. With Rob Gronkowski ramping up his snap count and offensive involvement as well, Brady is a high-floor option in his first start of the season.
Carson Wentz (at DET), $7,500: While the Falcons are equally as porous against opposing quarterbacks, the Lions may be the best matchup to target. Detroit is allowing more than 70% of passes to be completed (second-highest in NFL), the second-most touchdowns through the air (12), and have interception a solitary pass through four games. On the flip side, Wentz is off to a torrid career start across the board including zero interceptions and the Eagles scoring at least 29 points in each game this season.
Melvin Gordon (at OAK), $7,700: Gordon is one of the few high-volume running backs to project weekly after Danny Woodhead's injury, seeing goal line and passing-down work. The Raiders are allowing an NFL-high 5.1 yards-per-carry and 134 yards on the ground each week, second-most in the league. The Vegas total of 50 points for the game is the high mark for Week 5 as well. Gordon offers a similar floor and ceiling to the top-salary backs this week, but saving ample cap space.
Theo Riddick (vs PHI), $6,200: Riddick has been seeing a dominant share of the backfield snaps since Ameer Abdullah exited the lineup. While miscast as an interior runner, the Lions has few other options for significant work between the tackles. Dwayne Washington got dinged up in Week 4 and Zach Zenner is the next man up. The Eagles are stingy versus the run (less than 4.0 yards per carry for running backs), but Riddick is at his best in space and as a receiver. Add to the formula Detroit is an underdog this week and the game script is looking strong for Riddick to see close to 10 targets this week, after seven and nine in the previous two games.
Antonio Brown (vs NYJ), $9,600: After a slow start to the season for the Steelers offense, they got well in Week 4 in the blowout win over Kansas City. With LeVeon Bell back in the lineup, Ben Roethlisberger looked dynamic with his passing weapons again. The Jets are horrible against the pass, allowing an NFL-high 71.4% completion rate and a whopping 9.7 yards-per-attempt. While the Jets get to the quarterback (11 sacks), big plays will be available downfield.
Steve Smith (vs WAS), $6,300: Smith is rounding into form after a slow start and turning Mike Wallace and Dennis Pitta into clear ancillary targets for the Ravens offense. The blend of expected targets, upside, and matchup is ideal for Smith this week at $6,300 in the WR3 range.
Zach Ertz (at DET), $5,600: Ertz is projected to be back this week for the Eagles, one of the better offenses in the NFL. Trey Burton has been viable in Ertz's absence. Detroit is allowing the second-most points to opposing tight ends, including touchdowns to five different tight ends this season.
Stephen Gostkowski (at CLE), $5,100: The Patriots are the top Vegas team total and 10.5-point favorites. Gostkowski's biggest downfall is too many scoring drives finishing in the end zone rather than stalling in field goal range.
Vikings (vs HOU), $4,800: The Vikings are a top-5 rush and pass defense by ProFootballReference.com Expected Points metrics. They have allowed just three passing touchdowns to six interceptions (second-most in NFL). Minnesota also rushes the passer well with the second-most sacks (15) in the league, while Houston has turned the ball over eight times in four games (seventh-most in NFL).
THE SNEAKY PLAYS
Joe Flacco (vs WAS), $7,600: Through my recent work on home-road splits for quarterbacks, Flacco graded out as the most sensitive to playing at home versus on the road, which he gets a suspect pass defense in Baltimore this week. With Steve Smith rounding into form, Flacco has a full complement of weapons, including multiple deep threats an area where Washington has struggled.
Jordan Howard (at IND), $7,200: Howard is not as cheap as Week 4, his first as a clear starter in Chicago. However, Howard outside the top-10 in running back salary still presents value. Howard is one of the few backs to project seeing 85% or more of the snaps (saw 91% to Joique Bell's 9% in Week 4) and the Colts are one of the best matchups for running backs this week considering the bye weeks. The Colts have been equally generous on the ground and through the air to backs, including the third-highest Expected Points allowed and five rushing scored against.
Emmanuel Sanders (vs ATL), $7,100: Sanders has dominated the Denver targets this season (at least eight per game and 15 more than Demaryius Thomas), yet is $600 less than Thomas this week. The Falcons have been torched through the air (on pace for more than 5,000 yards, 52 touchdowns allowed)
Jordan Matthews (at DET), $7,000: Detroit struggles in general against pass (see Carson Wentz above) in zone of 2015 Saints defense level. Eddie Royal feasted from the slot against the Lions last week (7-111-1 on seven targets). Matthews saw 23 targets the first two games of the season before the non-competitive blowout win over Pittsburgh in Week 3.
Hunter Henry (at OAK), $5,400: Henry has dominated the snap count since Antonio Gates left the lineup and has a strong 9-137-1 stat line on 12 targets over the past two games. Oakland is an above-average matchup for tight ends and San Diego lacks certainty at wide receiver with Keenan Allen out. Henry continues to be a value at $5,400 this week. *Saturday Update - It looks like Antonio Gates may play this week, but not be 100%. Henry still qualifies as likely to present value with strong snap and target numbers. Continue to monitor Gates' status over the weekend*
Ryan Griffin (at MIN), $4,500: Griffin saw a high share of snaps with C.J. Fiedorowicz exiting Week 4 with an injury. Minnesota is stingy on the outside with a tandem of strong cornerbacks. The Vikings are allowing the third-fewest points to wide receivers but are a middle of the road matchup for tight ends where the ball is more likely to funnel this week with Houston. Griffin is a bargain basement price, allowing for an additional strong running back or receiver in tournament lineups this week.
Chris Boswell (vs NYJ), $4,700: Boswell is a quality blend of explosive offense, Vegas total (third-highest this week), and cap savings from the top options.
Packers (vs NYG), $4,600: The Giants are struggling to protect Eli Manning and have turned the ball over nine times this season (fifth-most in NFL). While Green Bay is not a shut-down defense, they can pressure the quarterback (10 sacks in three games) and make opponents one-dimensional (seventh-best Rushing Expected Points allowed).
