The regular season is here and with the first week comes a small sample size. Was what we saw in Week 1 an aberration or the new reality? By acting or sticking with our status quo player 'bets' we are choosing one side or the other. Here are some of my observations from Week 1 and the action plan for each:
2016: Tight End Streamers Delight
The depth of tight ends on the starter spectrum is pronounced this year. Most of them are dirt cheap or on the waiver wire, even heading into Week 2. Here are just a few to keep in mind depending on the depth of league:
Dennis Pitta, in his first game back from injury, lapped incumbent Crockett Gillmore for playing time. With the Baltimore wide receiver corps more stocked than recent years, the Ravens will only support one tight end for fantasy viability. Gillmore is back to the waiver wire and Pitta is an add this week.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins was an impact player on around 30% of the snaps in Tampa Bay, logging a highlight touchdown reception and drawing a deep defensive pass interference penalty on another target. Staying out of the doghouse will be key for Seferian-Jenkins, but Week 1 showed his upside even with a limited snap and target count.
Virgil Green had a muted stat line, but had a wide open end zone target get tipped at the line of scrimmage. Add the touchdown and Green would have a different look to the consensus heading into Week 1. Green dominated snaps as the clear starter in Denver with a serviceable Trevor Siemian.
Hunter Henry saw more than 40% of the snaps as a Week 1 rookie. With San Diego losing Keenan Allen for the season and Antonio Gates looking physically done point towards a larger role in the coming weeks for the well-rounded tight end.
Jacob Tamme saw 77% of the snaps in Week 1 and Austin Hooper, while a long-term talent, has been logging plenty of growing pains and had just 14% of the snaps. I would be especially interested in Tamme any week Julio Jones (who got dinged up in Week 1) or Mohamed Sanu misses.
Running Back Committees
Devonta Freeman owners should be very concerned with the even split of snaps for Tevin Coleman in Week 1. Plus Coleman saw the higher leverage touches in space and in the passing game. Freeman's upside takes a huge hit if that trend continues. Atlanta looked to scheme touches for Coleman to use his burst and speed, two components not present in Freeman's game.
Another backfield not turning out as many projected in Week 1 was in Cleveland. Despite trailing most of the game, Isaiah Crowell saw 58% of the snaps in a game script which would point to Duke Johnson Jr. Without catch-up mode and strong pass volume, Johnson could be irrelevant for fantasy owners outside of a bye week-level flyer.
Every back performed for Detroit to open the season. Theo Riddick was efficient with his touches. Even Dwayne Washington saw only goal line work and punched in a carry for a score. While the Lions be as productive weekly as we saw in Week 1? Probably not. This is one backfield I project week-to-week frustration. Ameer Abdullah saw 62% of the snaps, but not high leverage red zone work.
Like Atlanta, Kansas City's Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West were a dead heat in snaps. Ware did far more with his playing time, but this is poised to be a tough projection when Jamaal Charles returns. Ware showed plenty of passing game upside, which limits West's appeal as the smaller, more space-oriented option of the pair longer term.
Mark Ingram's 42% snap rate was a surprising figure to open the season. Ingram was earmarked to be in the bellcow group, but Travaris Cadet, like Theo Riddick in Detroit, was seeing the high leverage touches with his 38% of the snap pie. The Saints have historically been a PPR factory for running backs. Cadet is looking like the PPR play of the 2016 version.
Darren Sproles was the top snap count in Philadelphia's backfield despite a positive game script much of the time against Cleveland. This is troublesome for Ryan Mathews' upside and good news for Sproles being on the RB2 PPR radar going forward.
Similarly to Philadelphia, Danny Woodhead was the 'lead' back in San Diego while the Chargers led most of the game. Woodhead had a 2-to-1 edge over Melvin Gordon.
Bellcow Watch
Jeremy Langford was one of the surprise bellcows in Week 1. The Bears offense may stink in a global sense, but Langford saw nearly every offensive snaps for Chicago.
C.J. Anderson saw more than 80% of the Denver snaps. Devontae Booker's early game fumble could not have helped his cause for more playing time. Anderson looked the part as the lead back and until at least midseason could see a heavy majority of the work for the Broncos.
T.J. Yeldon had a taste of bellcow treatment with Chris Ivory out. With Ivory out of the hospital mid-week, he may be available in Week 2. Yeldon looked strong last week, a positive sign if Ivory should miss time along the way.
Deep Names to Know
Trevone Boykin: Russell Wilson got dinged up last week. Boykin showed well in the preseason and has mobility to have him on the top-20 fantasy radar if he saw spot starts. Boykin is a proactive pickup in QB-premium formats.
Travaris Cadet: I mentioned him above. Other running backs will be sexier names on the waiver wire this week, but Cadet has RB2 PPR potential as the Saints defense will lead to shootouts.
Brice Butler: He has more upside than incumbent Terrance Williams. Butler saw more than 30% of the snaps and was rotating with Williams. Dak Prescott probably will not unlock the passing game in the coming few weeks, but Romo's return (or Prescott growing over the next month or two) could unlock ancillary targets in Dallas more consistently for the physical talent.
Paul Richardson Jr: The top-3 Seattle receivers all saw more than 75% of the snaps in Week 1. Richardson was a distant fourth but an injury to any of the three ahead of him makes him a strong pickup. Richardson has looked back to his pre-injury form in the preseason and Week 1.
Jalin Marshall: Quincy Enunwa is the more shallow young receiver to know with the Jets, but Marshall flashed with a big kickoff return and getting early first-team snaps this week, drawing a defensive pass interference penalty. Marshall is the deep receiver talent to know in New York.
