Photo: Kevin Jairaj, USA Today Sports

There have been so many thoughts swirling around my head as the fantasy season - at least for redraft and dynasty leagues - came to a close a few days ago. While many soak it all in, my transition period lasted all of about 20 minutes. As Brandon McManus would have needed six or seven field goals on Monday Night (or in another title game Emmanuel Sanders needed 40 PPR points), my championship 'sweats' were not all that intense. Instead I sweat it out with a fellow UTHDynasty.com writer as we following the closing minutes of the game with his title hanging in the balance. The following morning I glanced around my couple dozen dynasty leagues briefly, then I was already off to begin my 'offseason' activities. The term makes me smirk as January through the NFL Draft is essentially dynasty season where owners proactively position their teams for future season glory, and dive into future NFL talent with the enthusiasm of a kid at Christmas. My typical move in life is to be mentally past a situation as it's happening or before it even occurs. As a result, a day or two before the Week 16 slant, I was already in draft mode, ready to update my glut of spreadsheets, formulas, and data for 2016 and beyond. Going back in time, here are a few thoughts from the 2015 fantasy season that was and looking ahead to the offseason:

The Running Back Wash-Out

It was brutal at the top of the running back board (specifically looking at redraft ADP from the preseason). There is a question on the Footballguys Roundtable this week on the subject and my mind was already on the topic. One big component, that I have seen Adam Harstad state in the past, is the running back position heading into this season was plain old. The 'established' options were past the prime window of production for the position. Betting on 27, 28, and up backs on the age curve is a dicey game and the top-12 by redraft ADP - so the backs contenders in dynasty were likely banking on as well, was littered with these expiring options. Adrian Peterson worked out, but that's about it from the older crowd. Add Jeremy Hill underwhelming (wait, so all those long well-blocked runs from 2015 were not going to continue for a straight-line athlete?), LeVeon Bell getting hurt, and Eddie Lacy turning into offensive lineman size and it was a minefield few owners survived. 

The good news is help is on the way. Turnover at the position was needed and the previous few draft classes had not provided enough ammo to fully stock the cupboards on the backend. Todd Gurley, David Johnson, and T.J. Yeldon were all weekly starters in 2015 as rookies - the low-hanging fruit for restocking. Add in promise from Ameer Abdullah, Matt Jones, Karlos Williams, Thomas Rawls, and Javorius Allen as potential starters in 2016 or later and younger running backs could easily be on the road back. Devonta Freeman was a welcome surprise after Tevin Coleman saw significant work early in the season pre-injury and Carlos Hyde had a huge Week 1 to tease what could have been another young producer at the position. Jay Ajayi has juice in Miami if Lamar Miller bolts in free agency. Jerick McKinnon has flashed as a potential Adrian Peterson replacement. Jeremy Langford forced a committee with Matt Forte, who is finishing out his current Chicago contract. Even if half of these promising sections of production emerge into 2016 NFL starters, the position will be in good shape for a rebound.

Finally, running back - by my projections - is the strength of the 2016 NFL Draft class for the dynasty skill positions. More than being better than previous running back classes by early metrics, it is better than the wide receivers at this pre-combine phase. 

Welcome to the Top, Jordan Reed

For only the second time in the last five seasons, Rob Gronkowski was not the top tight end in points-per-game. Jimmy Graham was the last non-Gronk leader at his peak. In 2015, Jordan Reed had a pretty quiet dominant season considering his 83 receptions and 11 touchdowns - matching Gronkowski - in 13 games. Injuries have been the concern for Reed through three seasons as he missed 12 games between 2013 and 2014. Kirk Cousins being competent or better most of the season as helped and Reed's talent was never in question; he had the moniker 'great...when healthy' early in his career. A player is injury prone until they aren't and buying up those injury-tagged commodities can pay big dividends if they put together a healthy stretch. The big question with players like Reed is how aggressively to buy (via startup or trade) or sell the following offseason. Even accounting for Reed's injuries, his buy-sell line is in the historical 1.08-1.12 range. Considering the tepid or worse 2016 draft class overall, Reed could be a few spots higher in a fair market deal by my values.

Dynasty Power Rankings

One metric I keep is a combined dynasty value for each NFL team. Team strength is becoming a more important factor to move players with tiers and especially for stash players. I would rather have the next guy up on a strong offense than a middling option already seeing playing time on an average-or-worse offense. Sammie Coates Jr is a good example in Pittsburgh. Marqise Lee is basically free in Jacksonville. Kenny Bell is slightly more expensive than free in Tampa Bay. Some are getting tired of waiting on Jeff Janis. The list goes on and on. Here are the current dynasty team values when I made my significant updates changing over to 2016:

Big Bets for 2016

In the running back section above I outlined all the promising young options with potential lead roles in the not-too-distant future. In addition to a few of those, here are where I am putting my poker chips - some pricier than others - for potential season-changing production in 2016:

Kevin White

White was the typical 1.03 in rookie drafts immediately following the NFL Draft, I even saw him at 1.01 and 1.02 on occasion. By August, he was falling into the back-half of Round 1, if not farther. White was the No.7 overall pick (teaser - that's pretty good) with prototypical traits, and rare athleticism for his size. Those prospects do not miss often historically. Add to that profile Alshon Jeffery being in a contract year with the possibility of being on a franchise tag deal in 2016 and White is slam dunk investment. When he was drafted, I had Jeffery and White neck-and-neck in long-term value even if both were to stick in Chicago long-term. Now, White may be the unquestioned lead receiver - like Jeffery has been post-Brandon Marshall's departure - sooner than expected.

Jordan Matthews

The shift coming in Philadelphia with Chip Kelly gone is a good thing for Jordan Matthews. I grew tired of seeing Matthews run short crosser route one after another for two seasons. He was still a 13-14 PPG option in PPR under the circumstances. Remember the projections floating around for Matthews in the preseason in the 100-reception, 1,500-yard range? Those undelivered expectations lead to a post-hype buying opportunity. Matthews was a ridiculously well-balanced prospect and a top performer at Vanderbilt within the SEC. In addition to a safe long-term floor, Matthews has WR1 upside in 2016.

Martavis Bryant

Like David Johnson, Martavis Bryant is producing high-level numbers as he figures out playing at the NFL level. Bryant has 15 touchdowns in 21 career games, including 12 different contents. He is a big-play machine and he is being slow-played into the Pittsburgh passing attack. Antonio Brown is tremendous, but Bryant is the big upside play of that passing game considering current price points. Bryant profiled as a boom-bust receiver prospect and this is an example of what happens when the boom wins out early on. I would give the 1.01 without thinking for Bryant.

DeAndre Smelter

In a recent twitter poll I conducted, Smelter was the top choice for leading the 49ers in receiving yard in 2016. Smelter, like White, missed his entire rookie season in 2015 with an injury. Smelter has prototypical traits, hands the size of griddles, and a wide open depth chart to snatch a significant role. Blaine Gabbert has been a quality surprise down the stretch on a poor team around him as promise under center. 

Charles Sims

Sims has been rock-solid in his secondary role to Doug Martin the past two seasons. Sims is a hyper-strong receiving back with plenty of size to run inside. Martin ran hot all season, avoided injury, and I bet he bolts for likely his last big payday with free agency looming. Tampa Bay would be smart to going into Week 1 with Sims as the starter instead of overpaying in free agency or going running back over defense or another option to aid Jameis Winston's development in the early rounds of the draft. Sims has quality burst and high PPR upside with more opportunity. Like my affliction for Mike Evans and Jameis Winston, I see a rising offense in Tampa Bay and I want more exposure on my teams. Charles Sims - and Kenny Bell - qualify.

Clive Walford

Rookie tight ends are essentially invisible for fantasy terms. However, we are looking for flashes of potential amidst the lost opening season for first-year tight ends. I liked Walford more than Maxx Williams for the money back in May. Since, Walford has made a handful of quality plays down the seam, versus tight coverage, and after-the-catch mirroring his Miami prospect tape. Like Sims in Tampa Bay, Oakland is another rising offense. Derek Carr is on the short list of quarterbacks with age and upside in their profile, Amari Cooper looks the part and Michael Crabtree was resigned after a strong season. Outside of 4-5 names at tight end, there is a huge grab bag of options from ho-hum veterans to peeking through keyholes at young upside with little playing time. Walford is my favorite dirt-cheap TE2 or stash TE3 for 2016 with the potential to land a top-10 producer.

Final Thoughts

In taking a longer pause than usual this week thinking about the season (and year) in retrospect, I have such an appreciation for the platforms from which I am able to content. Dynasty is such a wonderful game, infusing skills which weave from life to game theory to metrics to human relations and beyond. Writing at Footballguys.com has been a wonderfully enjoyable venture - a true bucket list item, exceeding even my lofty expectations from the outside before joining the star-studded staff. The Under the Helmet podcast, now five years young, has allowed for a weekly soap box to discuss the game we all love. UTHDynasty.com started nearly two years ago as another outlet to merge metrics, film study, player evaluation, and audio content. 2015 marked the start of my first (of hopefully many) audio book projects, The UTH Dynasty Experience, where I transparently discuss life as a dynasty owner, analyst, writer, host, and website operator. Also, 2015 included the release of my ground-breaking dynasty trade calculator, a project two years in the making as I built it in the background. I started Under the Helmet podcast years ago as I saw a need in the marketplace for a quality resource. The trade calculator had the same motivation for its creation. Thanks for a great 2015 dynasty season and, as I close every UTH podcast with: never settle, refuse to be average, and keep building those dynasties.

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