This week is the trading deadline in many leagues. Personally, I am not a fan of having a deadline at all. First, it naturally decreases activity by restricting player/asset movement. While the negative side of the no deadline argument is an annual arms race for contenders buying starters leading up to or during the playoffs, they can already do that up until Week 11 in the previous example. Allowing trades at all times aids teams out of contention as well. Those additional weeks give owners looking ahead to 2016 more opportunities to land future rookie picks for producing players if an injury or two strikes a contender down the stretch.
Another potential drawback is owners bailing on the league due to bad trades or simply going all-in intentionally for a given year, leaving a shell of a dynasty roster for another owner, which can be difficult to find without a substantial discount or rookie pick capital, to clean up. The fix to this is the same as any league with trading of future picks. Instead of having only owners trading away future picks (some designate future first rounders only) pay a deposit to execute a trade, I like all owners having a deposit on file from the first season.
The 'pay if you trade a rookie pick' setup does not work well in my experience and actually discourages trading. Having all owners pay say 50% deposit from the outset - or all together in an offseason - gets everyone on the same page. Then trading is freed up in-season where owners don't have to think about paying up to execute a deal and the commissioner does not have to monitor and track down owners to finalize a deal. You also have to deal with the circumstance of what if an owner trades away a pick without paying the deposit. I say they are locked from submitting a lineup, but then what if they execute a trade on Saturday night or Sunday morning? Things get sticky when timely deposits are due amidst the regular season weekly shuffle of league activity. In short, this is an important topic for a league to iron out in the offseason to make the regular season seamless and more enjoyable.
Dynasty Trading Tips
You Better Shop Around
As the song goes, dynasty owners, like deal-seeking shoppers or speed dating, need to play the field. Many lowball sells are attributed to this deficiency. When selling a specific player, my go-to move is sending out at least one offer to every owner in the league - all of similar value. That way, you do not have a strong preference if any one of them come back as accepted out of the gate. Be reasonable in your asking price and consistent in the scope of the offers. Using rookie picks is a simple way to create parallet offers. For example, a marginal long-term asset with some short-term production appeal makes sense as Player X + Round 3 for a future Round 2 pick construction or the like. As a seller, it is best to have a broad scope of preferred returns as other rosters will have a variety of offerings. For example, selling running back for a future first may work for teams with later Round 1 projected draft slots, but asking for one from a bottom-tier team is not using the parallel construction guideline. Instead, their proposal may be their early second and a player you like, or two seconds, or a player with a later first market perception for instance.
Going All-In
A straight forward approach is selling producers to contending teams as a non-contender. However, digging into your league history can foster easier deals. Most leagues have a dead-red contender or two who made deals in the opening month or two of the season selling out for a title push. Did any of them sustain an injury or two since? Did their patch job not work? They may be even hotter for a boost closing in on the playoffs than weeks ago. Any weak spot for an all-in minded contender is a weekly source of frustration. If could be via injury, poor play, or missing on waiver wire options along the way. Offering a sustantial upgrade can provide a premium return of future-based assets. Like in the advertising or selling industry, if you can alleviate a pain, concern, stress from the other side, they will pay consistently and well for that relief.
Solve Problems Cheaply
My mantra if buying a short-term rental player for the stretch run is do it on the cheap. Instead of dealing away future firsts or blue chip prospects, view the rental for what they are: a shot at helpful production for the next month or so. If an older player they will carry less value in the offseason. If a situational performer, the opportunity will be a more crowded environment once free agency and the NFL Draft pass. The odds are stacked against a singular player or addition being THE difference between a championship or not. Approaching band-aid deals late in the season through that lens will keep a dynasty team healthier year in and out.
The Players
Here are a few players I would have my eye on to acquire as a contender in the final weeks, days, or hours before the trade deadline:
Alex Smith has a quality schedule down the stretch and a high weekly floor. Baltimore and Cleveland are his Week 15-16 matchups. If dealing with injuries at the position or want another committee option, Smith is a quality combination of schedule, consistency, and dirt cheap acquisition price in most leagues. Moving up in cost, I like Blake Bortles down the stretch. Julius Thomas has been a non-factor, but I hold out some hope to integrate as a viable red zone option at a minimum. While not an impact player, Marqise Lee helps in the WR3/4 role. Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns are coming into their own. Bortles also gets the Saints, you know the worst defense by far this season, in Week 16.
Charcandrick West has an outstanding closing schedule with minimal competition for touches. West is a well-balanced prospect with some long-term appeal as well. I would not go above a mid-second for West, but he offers a boost to most running back depth charts down the stretch. Lamar Miller is another back with an outstanding closing stretch. The buzz of Jay Ajayi is checking Miller's production under the radar to some extent and the coaching change has helped Miller get into space and Miami to stick with the run game. San Diego and Indianapolis in Weeks 15-16 is an ideal finishing schedule for Miller.
Demaryius Thomas has lost plenty of steam this season, mostly because of his ridiculous cold snap with finding the end zone - a single score through 10 weeks. Thomas has a high floor for a contender through volume and I doubt Brock Osweiler will hurt his chances seeing what Peyton Manning has done (read: not done) during his sharp decline. Kamar Aiken is an ideal 'solve problems cheaply' target. The Ravens have a strong schedule for receivers to close the season (Chiefs, Steelers in playoffs) and Aiken has a high floor of targets. Chris Givens is a dark horse there, but Aiken continues to show well without Steve Smith. Danny Amendola is an undervalued option to close the season as well. I know firsthand the market is not overly hot as a seller of Amendola. A late-second would get him in most leagues. The Patriots have a schedule without an avoid matchup for receivers left on the docket.
Julius Thomas: The schedule has been brutal to-date for Thomas and it clears up like the sky after a storm starting this week. Through the championship week, Thomas has strong matchups consistently. Blake Bortles has optimism as well making Thomas a quality addition if a contender needs depth or an upside play. Thomas can likely be had for a second rounder. Ben Watson is another tight end to know. Being on bye in Week 11 may help foster a deal and the Saints are a poor defense with plenty of negative game scripts and passing volume. Watson is not a long-standing producer or hot upside name, making him more obtainable. His finish against Detroit and Jacksonville is one of the best among tight ends to boot.
Final Thoughts
This has been said in this column before and this week will not be the last - optimize your roster spots as soon as possible and allowable within the league rules. The moment your team is down submitting rosters for the season, drop your kicker and defense for upside plays heading into the offseason. Is there middling depth you held to get through the bye weeks? Evaluate their importance to your playoff run or future seasons, exploring shopping them for late round picks, then drop them. Check out upcoming free agents for the offseason. A change of scenery may be a welcome change for a positional player, but typically they do not perform as well if a high-priced acquisition. Also check out the depth chart they would leave behind for free agents in your league to stash for an early uptick in situational value. Josh Hill and Ben Watson are examples of oscillating value with the departure of Jimmy Graham (albeit via trade) in the 2015 offseason. Hill had plenty of juice, especially after the Saints did not address tight end in the draft, then Ben Watson turned into the player to target and was a regularly on the waiver wire even leading up to Week 1.
