The winds of change are in motion with dynasty player value. With five weeks in the books, here are some catch-all thoughts on the landscape:
Positional Recalibration
The running back position is one where my thoughts have changed over the past year. Long-term starters are few and far between and projecting many peak seasons from even backs on the front side of their career arc is a dicey game. My general approach of acquiring rookies in which I have confidence or older pass-catching backs remains, however, I am closer to redraft mode with running backs than any other dynasty position.
Using historical career arcs and mined data, I do not view running backs in the 27-year-old range much different from options pushing or past 30 years of age. All of those backs are one-year plays in my eyes with overt current-year production being paramount to their remaining value.
The main difference would be between premium prospects or yet-to-produce younger options (say 25 or under) and those senior citizens at the position. Using some current year examples of these concepts, here are some players of note:
While still young, Eddie Lacy has shifted down a significant chunk. He is miring in unproductive land and the film matches the box score with a Trent Richardson-like lack of ability to cleanly move. Every carry looks like a wrestling match to do much beyond the line of scrimmage.
Danny Woodhead is the quintessential stopgap option for contending teams. His touches are high-leverage in the pass game and red zone, plus his quarterback has fueled PPR backs for years now. At 30 years old Woodhead is a year-to-year projection but a high-floor weekly starter for now. A big benefit to Woodhead is his market value does not even approach Round 1 rookie pick status but the production is a boost for contenders all the same. Dion Lewis is a higher cost option to Woodhead on a better offense and five year younger. Lewis is likely to cost a future first as a result. Shane Vereen fits the Woodhead approach to running backs with more usage variance week-to-week. Duke Johnson Jr is emerging into a similar model of PPR player in his rookie season.
Devonta Freeman is a tough running back to value in dynasty. He was a mid-Day 3 pick, who mired away until 2015 and Atlanta drafted Tevin Coleman significantly higher this offseason. Coleman proceeds to get the lion’s share of touches before his injury and Freeman stringing together elite usage and production in the meantime. Coleman returned to the lineup in Week 5, but sparsely played. Did Freeman relegate Coleman to a minority role? Is this like Jeremy Hill’s 2014 where Atlanta will ride the hot hand until a more tepid temperature? The face value facts are Freeman’s tape the past few weeks has been excellent and at 23 years old he has the lead role (including goal line and passing down work) in a quality offense. Using only those factors, Freeman is a top-5 dynasty back. The peripheral noise of Coleman’s presence and previous usage before injury, and Freeman’s track record can alter the valuation. Going back to my previous general view on running backs, Freeman is closer to the top-5 status than not. This is a sharp correction from my low valuation in the offseason. Part of the reason is I was not a particular Tevin Coleman fan, seeing him as far too straight-line and not exceling after contact. Being agnostic towards Coleman allows for a strong reaction to Freeman’s play. This reminds me in some ways to Le’Veon Bell, who underwhelmed on tape as a rookie and emerged into a different player later in his career.
Wide Receivers: Wiggle Room
Running backs are a rather innate position. Run to daylight, run around defenders, and run through defenders. Blocking is a certainly a factor, but I view the run game having fewer moving components and skills from the high school and college landscape translating more directly to the NFL. In the pass game, there are more exterior factors. A receiver can ‘win’ their route only for the quarterback to go a different direction, succumb to pressure, or defensive pressure to dictate the play outcome.
These factors give my valuations more patience with someone like Michael Floyd, who is a ‘what the heck flex’ at best this year and has been largely an underwhelming producer in his career. However, Floyd enters free agency this coming offseason. While free agency typically gives me pause, Floyd is stuck in a crowded depth chart. I would bet Floyd gets top free agency money to be a team’s top (or at least 1B) option. Floyd has not proven he cannot play at this point, keeping the draft pedigree and strong entry metrics in his valuation.
Brandin Cooks and Mike Evans are two younger receivers who fit the same mold. Both have high pedigree and while expectations were high for their sophomore seasons, external factors play into the equation. Tampa Bay, rightfully, has adopted a lower volume approach with Jameis Winston and the pass game en route to two games of sub-20 attempts this season. Within that team-based limitation, Evans has performed well enough considering Vincent Jackson has yet to show extensive decline on the opposite side. Cooks did log a 20-point PPR game in Week 5 and I compare Cooks’ curious usage through 1.5 seasons to another New Orleans first round pick, Mark Ingram. Cooks has won deep routes yet has seen underthrown (or not thrown) Drew Brees passes. Considering the overall disappointment of the Saints offense, Cooks gets more rope. Even with the hand-wringing this season from WR1 expectations, Cooks has been at worst a WR3 with upside on otherwise strong wide receiver corps.
College Watch
My evaluation process, in addition to film study, centers on a metric-based historical projection model. Each prospect is scored in comparison to all others since 1999 at their respective position. All the end of the metric rainbow, a prospect receives category scores (Athleticism, Rushing, Receiving for example at running back) which feed into an overall grade. Specifically the production scores update throughout the season in an age-weighted fashion for the current year. Here are some highlights for the 2016 class (eligible prospects) and beyond from the 2015 season:
Corey Davis
At this point, Davis has a close-to-insurmountable lead as the top metric major conference wide receiver for 2016. While I project Davis to be an underwhelming athlete, his production is top-shelf with dominant age 18 and 19 seasons. His 2015, which is off to a tepid start, is a mere formality.
LaQuon Treadwell
Treadwell has been a long-time devy format star, oozing with size-movement upside. However, the production has been marginal to-date. His career yards-per-catch is historically anemic and while he has two above-baseline seasons by age standards, he has only 25% of his team’s receiving yards and 18% of touchdowns. Both are poor measures for a receiver with his physical attributes and competent quarterback. Even with a huge combine, Treadwell projects outside the top-10 major conference receivers for 2016. I am not labeling Treadwell as an avoid player (yet to study his tape fully), but a size-speed player with marginal college production falls into the boom-bust category of prospects as a general rule.
Derrick Henry
Henry has a tantalizing combination of size and athleticism. One comparison I had casually watching an Alabama game or two this season was a more laterally-explosive T.J. Duckett or Brandon Jacobs. Henry is in the rare spectrum of oversized backs (230+ pounds) with well-above average athleticism scores. The list includes recent names like Chris Wells and Jonathan Stewart as well as more historical prospects like Lendale White, Jacobs, Duckett, and Ron Dayne. Based on the history of these size-speed college backs, Henry has a good chance to be in the Round 1 NFL Draft mix. One concern is Henry’s tepid production. Currently Henry sits at +9% in rushing (0% is your absolute average producer to be drafted by the NFL since 1999) and -30% in receiving.
A final point on Henry is the history of Alabama backs. Typically they have to wait their turn to emerge as dominant producers amidst a stacked depth chart of high school recruits. The two backs in their recent history to break through at age 19 or younger were T.J. Yeldon and Mark Ingram, both top-40 selections. Henry’s 2015 season, at 21 years old, is his first above-baseline campaign, a similar age curve to Trent Richardson, Glen Coffee, and Shaun Alexander in their Alabama career arcs.