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With a month of games under our collective belts, dynasty owners are at a pivotal period of the calendar. Picking a direction in October is vital to maximizing a dynasty roster for its long-term health.
Are You In or Out?
It is such a short and simple question, but like an elder tree, the branches can be a tangled web of ‘maybes’ and uncertainty. The regular season is a sprint and most fantasy leagues are 30-35% over. Hot streaks happen, but like NFL franchises, the odds are stacked against rising to playoff glory from an anemic September. Here is an overview of checkpoints to determine your team’s 2015 mindset.
League Format
In leagues were 6-of-12 teams make the playoffs, owners have more wiggle room for a slow start. The playoffs may start a week earlier, but finishing at .500 gives a decent chance of a ticket to the dance. In a more top-heavy format, being down three games (or more) from a bevy of teams in October turns a slow-starter in a lottery ticket at best.
The setup of the rookie draft is also a factor. If a toilet bowl determines the best rookie slots, then being competitive – even without championship aspirations – is preferred. If record or total points or, my preference, potential points is used for the draft order, selling off short-term scorers for rookie capital or 2016 uptick players is the play. While tanking is never acceptable, making trades geared towards the long-term well-being of your franchise is encouraged. For a non-playoff squad, current year points are a detriment, while 2016 points and roster capital are the new objective.
Injuries
Key producers out of your lineup can morph a strong team into a 1-3 or 0-4 start with ease. Dez Bryant and LeVeon Bell are prime examples whose absence could have fueled an unplanned loss or two in September. The tight end landscape has caused plenty of lineup strife. Maybe you weathered the storm with someone like Gary Barnidge if needed; perhaps not. Between Andrew Luck, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, and Tony Romo your quarterback situation could be a key component here. Assess if your team has seen enough surprise performers to weather the storm. Are the supplemental options baseline scorers or possess upside to win matchups? Losing 2-3 top players for a chunk of the season could be enough to close up shop, looking ahead to 2016.
Wrong Side of Lineup Decisions
Beyond injuries or under-performing projected starters, an owner can also get caught on the wrong side of the lineup decision wave. Take Ameer Abdullah as an example: With uncertainty for his Week 1 role, you bench the rookie not knowing what to expect. He put up nearly 20 PPR points. In Week 2, you feel confident his is earmarked for a weekly starter role in your lineup. Abdullah logs a dud. Costing you a matchup, Abdullah is taped to your bench for Week 3, his second-best performance of the season to-date. In Week 4, Abdullah had a tough matchup against Seattle, but without Joique Bell soaking up snaps and a quality game in Week 3, you roll him out. Abdullah underwhelmed again.
This is an example of a single player resulting in four lineup decisions which could affect an otherwise strong team’s season start by a game or two. Matchup data and team usage solidifies as the season progresses, but September can be a bumpy ride in terms of maximizing starting points.
Points For and Against
Before examining more detailed team and league metrics, a simple survey of the points landscape can shed light on your team’s chances and early-season luck. Through four games, most leagues will have a team sitting at 4-0 or 3-1 who has been a little lucky. They have faced a low total of points against or barely scored enough to win multiple games. The power of regression is a real possibility where the luck runs out and the true strength of the team aligns with the record by the end of the season. On the flip side, a high-scoring 2-2 or worse team record-wise, may have an equally sky-high points against total. While one of the strongest teams in the league on paper, their regression is applying pressure upwards in the coming weeks. Something as simple as point differential is an indicator for team direction early in the season.
Power Rankings
Diving deeping into the ‘Power Rankings’ data for myfantasyleague.com hosted leagues provides more information of team strength. The Power Rankings themselves show a score for each team. There is a team or two in each league with a significantly different standing in the Power Rankings than the raw head-to-head record. Next, check out the data of ‘would have won’ and ‘could have lost’ matchups. This information works in concert with the potential lineup decisions section above.
Lineup efficiency will waver over the course of the season and from team to team. A top-heavy roster, or one back-filled with sparsely-playing young players, will obviously have a higher efficiency rate for lineup decisions. A more balanced team will have tougher sit-start decisions weekly and bound to miss on one or two in many matchups. Finally, check out the ‘Potential Points’ or ‘PP’ column of the Power Rankings. This total optimizes your lineup each week with a running tally, representing how your team would have scored with perfect lineup decisions along the way.
The Timeline
I estimate a bell curve-like chart with teams deciding their rest-of-season direction. 25% of owners on the fence will go through the above criteria and determine it is best to chug forward for a deep playoff run. Another 25% will determine they should throw in the towel and maximize their roster and assets for 2016 and beyond. In the middle lies the remaining 50%. Waiting another week or two and reassessing the checklist with more data is the prescription.
Final Note
One last factor to consider is the rest of the league. The earlier a team throws in the towel (who should) during the season, the more options they have in terms of contending trade partners. Other owners even at 1-3 may consider themselves strong contenders, in addition to weak 2-2 or better squads. Waiting to shop win-now assets will decrease the trading pool as teams lose more games, shifting their outlook. Offering a now-productive player to a team missing a key piece, fighting the bye week gauntlet, or working through a glaring starting lineup weakness is the perfect storm to cash out for maximum value in the trade market.
