Landing a top wide receiver without paying WR1 prices before the season is a value boon. For the past six years, I have tracked trends to find those receivers through common traits, regression, and probability. Here is the tale of the tape for 2015:
Objective
- Find a top-12 wide receiver (points-per-game in PPR scoring)
- The breakout receiver will out-produce their preseason positional ADP by 10+ spots
With those standards, the potential pool begins at WR11 (to outproduce their price by 10 spots they would need to finish as the No.1 overall receiver) all the way to WR60.
Criteria
The measured criteria include:
- Fantasy Points per Opportunity (Points divided by Pass Routes Run), calculated from ProFootballFocus.com data
- Receiving Grade, from ProFootballFocus.com
- Age
- Draft Pedigree
- Quarterback Strength, Preseason ADP used as proxy
- Depth Chart Clarity
- ADP Score, based on historical study successes
All categories function on a 1-100 scale, resulting in a total breakout score
Finally, the score rank is compared to their positional ADP rank to return the best and worst bets for WR1 production within tiers.
*ADP is used from MyFantasyLeague.com data for 12-team PPR leagues from July 15 to August 3, 2015.
The Results
WR11 to WR20
Best Bets
DeAndre Hopkins: The lone demerit for Hopkins is a big one - weak projected quarterback play. Hopkins had a strong 2014 sophomore season and now the depth chart is clear with Andre Johnson gone and hum-drum veteran Nate Washington currently occupying the No.2 role. The volume is a given and with even average quarterback play Hopkins can vault to a strong WR1 bet.
T.Y. Hilton: Being the top returning option on an Andrew Luck offense gives any receiver plenty of tiebreakers in terms of upside projections. Hilton checks all the boxes for WR1 numbers in 2015 with a few lesser marks than DeAndre Hopkins.
Emmanuel Sanders: Like Hilton, Sanders has a top quarterback (pending a potential decline from Peyton Manning) and a locked in depth chart situation. Sanders had the top PFF grade of any receiver on this list and one of the best efficiency scores in 2014.
Avoid
Alshon Jeffery: Middling PFF numbers in 2014 and a questionable quarterback situation in Jay Cutler hold back Jeffery despite a strong depth chart standing.
Jordan Matthews: The quarterback situation is a wild card in Philadelphia. Matthews, like Jeffery, had middling efficiency in 2014. The depth chart is ripe for the picking for Matthews to see an uptick of at least 20% in terms of pass routes.
Sammy Watkins: The combination of a likely bad quarterback situation in Buffalo plus Watkins coming off a target-fueled season (low efficiency) makes Watkins a stretch to hit WR1 production. More than 90% of study successes surpassed the league average efficiency the year prior, which Watkins missed last season.
Amari Cooper: While the depth chart is wide open for Cooper, Carr is a projected below-average quarterback by the ADP and rookies are historically a low-probability play to emerge as a WR1 in their first season.
WR21 to WR30
Best Bets
Martavis Bryant: As the most efficient per-route receiver in the study for 2015, Bryant has plenty of upside after only seeing 200 pass routes as a rookie. Ben Roethlisberger is a quality option and the No.2 role in Pittsburgh, if Bryant can secure the job, has a comfortable floor. One of Bryant's weak areas - draft position - becomes less of a metric wart following a strong 2014.
Jeremy Maclin: The only negative for Maclin resides in Alex Smith under center in Kansas City. The depth chart is wide open for Maclin to see a glut of targets and he checks every other breakout box.
Kevin White: Like Alshon Jeffery, a big question mark is Jay Cutler and a new offense in Chicago. Also, White is a rookie without a clear path to the top role in the passing game.
Andre Johnson: Negatives include having a poor 2014 season (DeAndre Hopkins lapped Johnson in efficiency within the same Houston passing game) and Johnson is past the prime age window to project an unexpected WR1 burst of production. On the flip side, the depth chart and Colts passing game is an enviable situation.
Avoid
Brandon Marshall: He was rather inefficient in 2014, is past the breakout age curve, and the Jets could be a Houston-Washington-Buffalo type quarterback situation which hinders a receiver's WR1 potential.
Julian Edelman: Edelman is older than the typical breakout, his PFF rating from 2014 was below-average, and Tom Brady's positional ADP is not the same projected advantage for a receiver's chances as previous seasons.
Golden Tate: While Tate seems likely to be a top-30 option, without Calvin Johnson missing a bevy of games Tate looks like a high-floor but low-upside option. Matthew Stafford having a 2011-like season would breathe life into Tate's chances.
WR31 to WR40
Best Bets
Breshad Perriman: The depth chart is promising for Perriman and Joe Flacco is functional. A first round draft pedigree helps his breakout score as well.
DeVante Parker: While there are able options in the Miami passing game, the Dolphins opted for Parker as their top-half Round 1 selection despite the depth and signing Jordan Cameron and Kenny Stills in free agency. Ryan Tannehill is a trendy upside play and Parker could be an Odell Beckham-light impact once healthy and integrated into the offense by midseason.
Avoid
Charles Johnson: Mike Wallace's addition moves Johnson down the depth chart in Minnesota. Johnson has draft pedigree plus a poor PFF rating from 2014 working against him by the metrics of note.
Vincent Jackson: Age plus Mike Evans surging past Jackson on the depth chart hurts Jackson's chances at WR1 production.
Roddy White: Like Vincent Jackson, White has a young stud ahead of him on a non-elite projected passing game in Atlanta.
WR41 to WR60
Best Bets
Terrance Williams: While not an overt physical talent, Williams was a second round draft pick and Dallas did nothing to challenge Williams on the depth chart this offseason. Tony Romo is a quality option under center and Williams' only demerit is his low PFF rating from 2014.
Brian Quick: The Rams quarterback situation is likely a speed bump, but Quick is in his prime age window to emerge to WR1 status (if he ever does). The light was coming on for Quick in 2014 pre-injury and the combination of decent play from Nick Foles and beating out Kenny Britt for top targets is the needed storyline for Quick to hit big.
Kendall Wright: The Tennessee depth chart is wide open for Wright to see a glut of targets. Marcus Mariota is a huge wildcard as well as the Titans offense in general.
Avoid
Victor Cruz: Behind a young thoroughbred in Odell Beckham, Cruz also has the variable of significant injury recovery and a non-elite passing game. Rarely does a passing game produce two WR1 Fantasy options (especially without a stud quarterback), so giving Cruz a shot at WR1 is expecting a significant downturn from Beckham historically.
John Brown: Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald cloud Brown's chances, but Floyd's hand injury gives Brown av early leg up. Carson Palmer would need a significant rebound to give Brown much of a shot at WR1 numbers.
Pierre Garcon: DeSean Jackson deters Garcon's target projection and Washington could be one of the worst passing games in the NFL. Finally, Garcon is past the prime age to fit the breakout avatar.
Dorial Green-Beckham: Middling situation score and a heavy underdog to see enough targets to project a rookie season to rival even Martavis Bryant's 2014.
Larry Fitzgerald: See John Brown, except with a lower score due to age factor.
