Photo: Brad Mills, USA Today Sports

Whether a contender or not, projecting to the offseason and the next season climate is key to maximizing roster spots on the back-end of a dynasty roster. Closing up the 2016 regular season, I will outline the key 2017 NFL free agents at each offensive skill position. Here is a look at the wide receiver position:

wide receiverS

• Alshon Jeffery
• DeSean Jackson
• Michael Floyd
• Terrelle Pryor
• Kenny Britt
• Josh Gordon
• Steve Smith (retiring?)
• Brice Butler
• Willie Snead
• Jeremy Kerley
• Ted Ginn Jr
• Kenny Stills
• Terrance Williams
• Cordarrelle Patterson
• Adam Humphries
• Seth Roberts
• Charles Johnson
• Vincent Jackson
• Pierre Garcon
• Brian Quick
• Markus Wheaton
• Kendall Wright

This is a big list and I generally ordered them by how excited I would be if I had a rooting interest in an NFL team and they signed said receiver this offseason.

Alshon Jeffery clouded his stock with a four-game suspension in the second half of 2016. Jeffery had a strong three-year run of production in 2013-15, hitting 16-18 PPG in each season. 2016 has been a struggle with the Bears pass game being a notable lackluster group and Jeffery has just one touchdown through nine games as of publication time. Jeffery is in his prime (turning 27 this offseason) and Spotrac.com projects the prototypical receiver to garner a deal in the 5-year, $60 million range. Most teams in the league would offer a quarterback upgrade over what Jeffery had in 2016.

DeSean Jackson still offers the over-the-top speed element for an NFL team. He has been a boom-bust, best ball-centric fantasy proposition and turns 30 years old in early December. The stark drop in yards-per-catch in 2016 is concerning for a big-play receiver exiting his age prime. Spotrac.com suggests a middling 3-year, $20 million free-agent deal. I doubt leaving the rising Kirk Cousins and Washington would be a good thing for Jackson outside of an optimal quarterback pairing.

Near the top, Michael Floyd is one of the most interesting names. After being part of a talented Arizona receiver depth chart for his rookie contract, Floyd has prototypical traits and untapped upside. Spotrac.com projects something in the neighborhood of a 4-year, $33 million deal this offseason. Floyd has yet to truly breakout as even his 1,000-yard season in 2013 was weighed down by just 65 receptions and five scores. With Carson Palmer eroding quickly, Floyd should see a quarterback upgrade with a team change and is still in his physical prime at 27 years old.

Terrelle Pryor is finding his stride as an NFL receiver and a change of scenery would almost certainly yield an upgrade at quarterback. He has ideal attributes and Spotrac.com projects a deal between Alshon Jeffery and Michael Floyd on the free agent market, comparing the quarterback convert to Michael Crabtree, Doug Baldwin, and Marvin Jones as recent free agent receivers. This is a tremendous rise for a receiver who had just two career receptions before 2016. While intrigued by his physical upside, I am more skeptical than optimistic Pryor changes teams and truly becomes a lead receiver. With a boom-bust profile, there is likely a bigger fan in the trade (or startup) market early this offseason than I would recommend.

Kenny Britt is a name to remember as well. He has played well for multiple seasons now, being generally 'lost' by playing with the passing game-stunted Rams of late. He is healthy and still young enough to project a peak year out of him. While Britt has been on the dynasty front for seemingly forever, he entered the NFL young (just 21 years old) and will be 28 for Week 1 next season. The ride has been a bumpy one as Britt mired through (in my view) longer lasting effects of early-career injuries and rededicating himself the past two seasons with the Rams. However, he is peaking heading into free agency and has earned a multi-year contract, which Spotrac.com projects in the range of a 3-year, $19 million deal.

Josh Gordon is a major question mark beyond his free agent appeal this coming offseason. There are a few Gordon believers still in most dynasty leagues, while others are done with the one-hit wonder who was once the No.1 overall startup pick for a moment in time. Since his breakout second season, Gordon has not been all that impactful in his most recent season even when playing, averaging 12.6 yards per catch, 11 PPR PPG and 60 yards per game in 2014. Getting his life in order is a bigger hurdle than projecting his dynasty value according to potential team change dynamics.

Steve Smith has indicated he plans to retire at the end of 2016, but Baltimore spoke on the subject in late November and would welcome Smtih back if he chose to return. He has surpassed a milestone in 1,000 career catches this season and turning 38 years old this offseason is a tough ask for any receiver. Smith is averaging around his career low in yards-per-catch in 2016 and has missed a number of games in the last two seasons.

Brice Butler is a player deserving more opportunity. He was a fill-in when Dez Bryant missed time earlier this season, but Butler has the physical attributes to be a quality No.2/3 on an NFL depth chart from Week 1 next season. Without name value, Butler is a stash player in dynasty where available for a situational uptick.

Willie Snead is a potential 'faller' on this list. New Orleans has been an ideal spot for Snead between 2015 and 2016. However, Michael Thomas is the projected future for 2017 and beyond (along with Brandin Cooks), making Snead a luxury for the Saints. Snead drops in priority if added to most other NFL depth charts for fantasy purposes as a better NFL player than projectable fantasy option.

Adam Humphries could thrive in the right offense. I commonly refer to Humphries as Cole Beasley-East with his route-running precision and strong hands. Humphries even has a more durable frame for interior work. It takes the perfect storm for a slot receiver to truly emerge on the fantasy landscape, but Humphries is on the short list of receivers who could thrive with a Wes Welker in his prime type opportunity within an offense.

Cordarrelle Patterson and Charles Johnson are intriguing athletes still with some promise. They could also be off the radar by this time next year without a positive change of team. While Patterson has seen more action in Minnesota this year than expected, most of his touches are still manufactured nearly the line of scrimmage or in the return game. Without seeing much receiver refinement to his game, the outlook beyond being a return specialist and situational gadget-type offensive player is minimal beyond this season. 

If stacking up this list back in the mid-offseason, Vincent Jackson would have been far higher. He has underperformed to a high degree and, while I still have a shred of hope for a late-career bounce-back, the porch light is flickering on and off at this point. Jackson has a clear run as the No.2 receiver in Tampa Bay and struggled to beat secondary defensive backs with Mike Evans emerging into a top option throughout. Jackson has been a major financial disappointment for the Buccaneers, paying him $12 million each season between 2014 and 2016 with significant dead cap penalties to move on. At 33 years old, Jackson's best case is something in the 3-year, $15 million range like Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, or Brandon Marshall type deals recently all hinging on if an NFL team believes a bounce-back is possible.

Pierre Garcon was on the decline track since his 2013 volume-infused career year, but 2016 has been a solid one thus far with a boost in yards-per-catch and seeing an uptick in receptions and yards per game. While his big upside days are in the rearview mirror, Garcon still has some appeal as a secondary possession target on an NFL offense. A 2-to-3 year free agent deal fits, but for fantasy terms leaving Washington is a likely downturn in whatever utility he had left in his early 30s.

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