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Strong takes are paramount to winning the long-term game of dynasty fantasy football. There is value in making incremental moves and accruing interest by 5-10% margins in trades and through waiver wire churning and flipping. However, using historical data and projected outlooks beyond the current season can lead to optimal trades and roster value windfalls over the long term. Here are my platform players to maximize their value for the rest of the season:
Platform running backs
Jordan Howard
His action plan will depend to some extent on team outlook. As a strong contender, I can see holding Howard and rolling him out to raise weekly projected win rates. However, he is a clear sell for teams looking ahead to 2017. My projection model is built on a number of factors for collegiate prospects, crushing the predictive value of draft position alone dating back to 1999. Jordan Howard was not a strong recruit entering college. Also, he was not an overtly strong metrics prospect. Finally, the NFL Draft process agreed with the sentiment as he fell to mid-Day 3. When combining all elements of Howard's profile, his probability of producing VBD (value over baseline as a fantasy starter per ProFootballReference.com measures) in his career at a paltry 13%. Using his key factors, the only producers for fantasy have been of the short-term variety, far from core assets. Even if Howard remains the starter for rest of the season, beyond when Jeremy Langford returns to active status, history points to Chicago addressing running back in a stronger way than a mid-Day 3 selection this coming offseason. Howard will become a watch player to avoid a serious addition through free agency or one of the many projected NFL starting-caliber backs in the 2017 NFL Draft.
I recommend shopping Howard for a 2017 1st or similar type value while he has an uncontested run as the lead back. I recently flipped Howard for Derrick Henry for example. Henry has nearly six times the Adjusted Draft Tier (overall odds) of becoming a longer-term fantasy starter in my database. Kenneth Dixon is another much stronger prospect I would explore acquiring (and Howard sellers can get an additional piece or two on the side I project in the deal). There will be a number of 2017 incoming rookies with a higher profile than Howard in a few months. Also, for teams not strongly contending this year, Howard's points are a detriment instead of a positive in terms of rookie draft positioning.
DeAndre Washington
Washington is another rising rookie running back. My film notes are in the zone of Washington being a poor man's Giovani Bernard - at best - in his big picture fantasy future. Washington has been in a murky split with Jalen Richard with Latavius Murray out of the lineup and even ancillary Oakland backs have been mixed in for goal line and short-yardage situations. Washington is rising to the mid or early Round 2 rookie pick range in the dynasty market, a quality exit. Washington can be sold individually, ideally shopped to the Latavius Murray owner in dynasty leagues or short-handed running back corps.
Washington, like Howard, was buried on Day 3 of a lackluster running back class in 2016 with odds in the 10-15% range. Oakland's usage without Murray points to a committee back - at best on the lower-band of a share - for Washington. Getting a Round 2 pick in 2017 will produce a much better projectable talent among running backs or the flexibility to draft any position or trade the pick.
Latavius Murray
With teammate DeAndre Washington on the list, one would think Murray would be held in higher regard but that is not the case. Murray, even when producing to a marginal level early in the season, was seeing a low snap count for an NFL lead back. Murray's tape has eroded the larger his sample size. Once his feet stop, the play is largely over. His oversized frame has a tough time getting up to speed to use his breakaway ability in the open field. Oakland has not used Murray like a lead back in 2016 even with Washington and Jalen Richard projecting as complimentary NFL backs instead of future lead back potential. Murray's true sell high window has been shut for good, but he can still draw a potential 2nd to 1st rookie pick upgrade or a 2nd and an upside player package once he returns from injury. Be proactive sending out offers around the league to get something in return for Murray before the bottom falls out over the next few months.
Melvin Gordon
Gordon is another weak prospect for his draft position. His usage turned optimal in 2016 with the injury to Danny Woodhead and the lack of other running back options for San Diego. Gordon will dominate snaps the rest of the season. However, he was not a strong mid-1st running back draft pick by the NFL. In the 10-20 overall range, Gordon is in line with the Ryan Mathews-William Green zone than the higher-level fantasy performers over the past 15 years. Gordon can draw a better return than any of the above-mentioned players. A high 2017 1st is possible, or transitioning to a more sturdy top receiver talent are preferred exits. The optimal timing could be riding Gordon as a contender for a few more weeks to log a quality floor of usage weekly and then swap for other assets. Other running backs emerging on an owner's depth chart over the next month can facilitate moving Gordon. On non-contenders, I would be shopping Gordon around the league weekly.
Jonathan Williams
To not make the article all gloom and doom, Williams has been a quality running back on tape from the preseason to the regular season. The sample size has been small, but Williams looks the part of a prototypically-sized back with three-down acumen and lateral explosion. Williams was a strong recruit entering college and has a decent metric prospect for a Day 3 pick. The best part of Williams is his cost. He was a late 2nd to early 3rd round rookie pick in most leagues as he landed behind LeSean McCoy in Buffalo. Mike Gillislee and Reggie Bush have even seen snaps over Williams early in Williams' rookie season. With dynasty owners focusing on production and a 'what have you done for me lately' mentality in-season, Williams is the perfect final piece addition to a larger trade, stashing Williams' talent on the end of the bench for a future uptick.
Darren McFadden
McFadden was out to start the year due to an elbow injury back in June. However, he is a top talent and history has shown to continue betting on them historically until completely out of the NFL for good. McFadden is a free agent after this season, plus Footballguys' Cecil Lammey shared this on twitter recently:
no word on whether or not #Broncos have interest in RB Darren McFadden - many expect him to draw interest b4 Nov1 trade deadline @1043TheFan
— Cecil Lammey (@CecilLammey) October 18, 2016
Expect McFadden to have another shot, at least as a strong committee back if not a lead role, later this year or in 2017 outside of Dallas. He is on the waiver wire in some dynasty leagues and available for pennies in the rest. Buy distressed NFL Draft position and McFadden may be the best bang for the buck out there.