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Jimmy Graham comes to Seattle on the heels of one of his least effective, and least healthy, seasons. It would be unfair to label him “injury-prone” – in fact, it’s a pretty unfair term for most players – but he’s had his share of health setbacks. Over his four seasons, he’s been markedly limited by a sprained shoulder, three ankle sprains, back spasms, and a torn plantar fascia. Through it all, he’s missed just two of 80 games, so we can’t call him a particularly risky prospect. But preparation is key, and developing a contingency plan for a Graham injury is crucial to his owners. How should you proceed if Graham goes down long-term?
Buy
WR Doug Baldwin – There’s probably more volume available for Baldwin than you think, even with Graham in the lineup. The quintessential hustle and vigor type, Baldwin has overachieved both outside and in the slot; he’s been Russell Wilson’s most voluminous and dependable target over the last two years. Without Graham, Baldwin would likely see real, if inconsistent, WR3-level usage in an offense likely to ramp up its passing game. And in Baldwin’s case, that means ultra-efficiency and overachievement: he’s posted a studly 67.9% catch rate and 9.4 yards per target clip dating back to 2013.
WR Chris Matthews – A Graham injury would leave a sizeable situational hole: the big-bodied goal line target. Baldwin has been a solid red zone option, but he’s not imposing nor utilized there very often. And likely starter Jermaine Kearse has been awful in the role: over the last two years, he’s turned nine targets from inside the 10 into a grand total of one catch for -1 yard. Matthews, a tree of a man at 6’5” and 218 pounds, certainly profiles well physically for the job. His Super Bowl explosion may have been a mere flicker, but the former CFL star certainly looked comfortable in his skin. His improvised touchdown catch from Wilson late in the first half was both impressive and encouraging for his odds of seeing real field time going forward. If that chemistry carries over into 2015, Matthews could be looking at a juicy situational role – especially if Graham is lost.
Hold
QB Russell Wilson – An injury to Graham seems unlikely to ding Wilson much, if at all. He’s already ascended into the second tier of fantasy QBs with an uninspiring crew of targets – most of whom remain in place in his arsenal. If Graham proves early on to be an offensive lynchpin and target monster, Wilson owners may brace for a slight boost in rushing volume and drop in passing. But Wilson is unique in that his legs are factored heavily into his team’s run game – more team rushing would mean a proportionate jump in Wilson’s own opportunity. As always, that potential would keep Wilson among the top fantasy options with or without a key target in the lineup.
Sell
None.
Add
TE Luke Willson – Like Graham, Willson is a supreme athlete for the position. At 6’5” and 251, he posted nearly identical athletic numbers at his 2013 pro day to Graham’s 2010 combine, and reportedly rates highly in Nike’s SPARQ rating – a measure the Seahawks don’t take lightly. It’s concerning that Willson didn’t definitively nail down the TE job after Zach Miller’s injury, but he was a playmaker, turning seven of his 22 catches into gains of 20+ yards – the second-best rate among TEs who caught 20 or more balls. If Graham goes down, Willson will likely step into his 2014 role as the nominal starter and fourth or fifth target. It’s not an ideal situation by any means, but he’ll carry sporadic value as a TE2 streamer capable of a TE1 performance here and there.
WR Tyler Lockett – The rookie isn’t here as a lark – the team parted with three draft picks to select him in Round 3. He’s a gamebreaking returner, and his skillset fits the offense nicely, with great quickness and slot instincts and enough downfield speed to make plays on multiple levels. Lockett could conceivably carve out a regular offensive role in the preseason, but would likely need an injury or faceplant elsewhere to threaten for fantasy relevance. Subtracting Graham, Baldwin, or Kearse from the lineup would place him squarely on the WR4 map, with potential for more.
Drop
None.