Welcome to Week 13 of The Docket, a weekly column that offers strategy and advice on players that you should be targeting and avoiding each week. We bring the energy each week with the positive, neutral and negative charge.
Lions vs Saints (-5.5 o/u 53.5)
- Matthew Stafford – The dude still can’t get any respect. He doesn’t go off against the Vikings on a short week and now he’s no good? Come on. With one of the bigger over/unders of the season, this game should be high scoring and the Lions are a pass first team. He dropped 254/3 on them last year and will probably do better this year.
- Theo Riddick – Averaged over 5 YPC since coming back from injury in 3 out of the four games, and in the one he didn’t, he caught 8 passes for 70 yards. He’s their guy out of the backfield and he should be very active in the pass game.
- Marvin Jones Jr, Anquan Boldin, Golden Tate – The Saints have played much better defense lately, but this is not a shut down secondary. Look for all of these guys to be active in a high scoring affair. I would roll with Boldin as a PPR Flex, while Jones and Tate are WR3’s with WR2 upside. Worth noting, Jones has a questionable tag this week and while he will play, he will not be 100%.
- Eric Ebron –Disappointed big time last week, but that was against the Vikes. He makes for a solid mid-tier TE1 as one of Stafford primary targets.
- Drew Brees, Brandin Cooks Willie Snead IV and Michael Thomas – All these guys should be locked and loaded for a scoring extravaganza. Could one of them fall flat like Cooks last week? Sure. But that’s not how this game sets up and you can’t play scared. Cooks has the toughest matchup against lock down CB Darius Slay, but after complaining all week about not getting the rock, they will probably grease the squeaky wheel. Thomas will mainly matchup against decent CB Nevin Lawson, while Snead has the easiest matchup by far against CB Quandre Diggs, PFFs 86th rated CB. That said, they will move all of these guys around and I think they all get theirs.
- Mark Ingram II and Tim Hightower – Both of these guys should get a decent number of carries making them viable plays as a RB2 and Flex play respectively. The Lions do have a decent run defense so I wouldn’t go nuts in DFS.
- Coby Fleener – His snap count is down, but at home against the league’s 2nd worst tight end defense, look for Fleener to have a good game.
Rams vs Patriots (-13.5 o/u 44.5)
- Todd Gurley – He’s a middling RB2. Owners will play him this week, but they won’t be drafting him next year.
- Kenny Britt – He’s fantasy’s #23 receiver and seems to get it done every week, posting another solid 5/52/1 last week. Unfortunately this week he faces off against Malcolm Butler, PFF’s #4 rated corner, so best to temper expectations and only use as a WR3 if you are in need. At least it looks like Goff has a good deep ball.
- Lance Kendricks – He’s chugging along as a top 10 tight end in four of the last five weeks and is a safe option to keep that going this week in a game where the Rams may have to throw it a lot.
- Tavon Austin – You can’t count on him for any production despite his score last week.
- Tom Brady – The Rams defense has played well, but he should be able to pick them apart. If the Pats go up big though, it could turn into a Blount game.
- LeGarrette Blount – Only 11 carries last week, but if the Rams get blown out, he could be used heavily in the 4th quarter. He is also their goal line back, so he’s a solid RB2 if all goes according to plan against a Rams defense giving up up 5.1 YPC over the past five weeks.
- Malcolm Mitchell – Tough to totally trust since he only seeing a limited number of targets, but he’s playing with Tom Brady and going up against PFF’s #116th rated CB, E.J. Gaines. He catches another TD this week.
- James White/Dion Lewis – These guys may eat each others value and I’m not sure who will get the most looks this week, but the matchup is certainly good for them against a Rams team that has given up 5.1 YPC and 25.5 FPG to opposing RBs the past five weeks.
- Julian Edelman – Actually has a decent matchup in the slot against CB Lamarcus Joyner, although more concerning is the ability of the Rams to keep up, according to Vegas that may not be the case. In season long he is a solid play, but perhaps not a strong one in DFS or those looking for upside.
- Rob Gronkowski – If Gronk returns he makes for a solid TE1, but he is now dealing with two injuries. If he plays, can he stay in the game?
- Martellus Bennett – Even if Gronk sits, he’s hard to trust. I would rather look to a guy like Vance McDonald.
Dolphins vs Ravens (-3 o/u 40.5)
- Jay Ajayi – Two tough matchups in a row for Ajayi, this week against a Ravens run defense giving up just 3 YPC over the past five weeks. Fortunately for the Dolphins, they could get back 2 or all 3 of their injured offensive linemen, so he should be used comfortably as a RB2.
- Jarvis Landry – The best way to attack this Ravens defense is through the slot and Landry may be very active especially if Ajayi is stymied on the ground. He goes up against PFF’s 80th rated CB Jerraud Powers.
- Ryan Tannehill, DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills – On the road in Baltimore, this is a tough game for this passing offense, especially since Parker may not play. I wouldn’t be proactive using these guys this week if you can help it.
- Kenneth Dixon – Out snapped and out touched West in Week 12 despite them leading for most of the game. Had 17 touches last week and should see a similar workload this week. He should be viewed as a RB2 in PPR leagues with some upside.
- Terrance West – Per my note above, it looks like Dixon has asserted himself as the “lead” back in this offense, but really it is still a total time share. While West only played 34% of the snaps, he still got 16 touches, just one short of Dixon and looked pretty decent. In this better than average matchup, you can still rely on West as a standard league flex or low-end RB2. In PPR leagues, he is certainly a bit harder to trust.
- Mike Wallace and Steve Smith – This Dolphins secondary, which was atrocious to start the year has come together and surprisingly have given up the 8th fewest passing yards per game on the year. That said, they are not a lock down group and there is a revenge game narrative here for Mike Wallace who will face off against second year converted from WR to CB, Tony Lippett. Wallace should be fine as a WR3 with upside while Steve Smith is more of a PPR WR3 that can hopefully get you WR2 numbers in a tougher matchup against CB Byron Maxwell.
- Dennis Pitta – Miami giving up a whopping 19.2 FPG to opposing TEs the past five weeks, so he has a chance to do something.
- Joe Flacco – Has only thrown for multiple TDs twice on the year and the Dolphins are allowing the 8th fewest passing yards on the season. This isn’t a wacko for Flacco week.
Broncos vs Jaguars (+5 o/u 41.5)
- Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas – The Jags play solid pass defense, so tough to trust these guys in DFS, but both make for decent WR2’s, but expectations should be in check on the road.
- Devontae Booker – This is a solid Jags run defense, so best to be left off your DFS squad. In season long, trot him out as you normally would against a Jags defense giving up 24 FPG over the past five weeks.
- Trevor Siemian – The Jags have allowed just over 17 FPG to opposing QBs the past five weeks and only 2 QBs to finish inside the Top 10 on the season.
- Blake Bortles, Allen Robinson, Marqise Lee, Allen Hurns, T.J. Yeldon and Julius Thomas – This is as tough as it gets, best to avoid all of these guys if you can. Robinson can maybe get free in three wide sets when CB Roby shifts outside, but after going 2/24 on 4 targets last week, tough to expect much of anything. With Chris Ivory out at least Yeldon will get most of the work, but he's also banged up so it's tough to expect much from him. Denard Robinson becomes an interesting reach play if Yeldon is out for some reason.
49ers vs Bears (-2 o/u 43.5)
- Colin Kaepernick – Bears missing both inside linebackers, so Kaep should find room to run, and run he will. I don’t like bad throwing QBs, but that’s not Kaep’s game.
- Carlos Hyde – Looked good last week and should be the foundation of this offense both running the rock and catching passes. While the Bears have been solid at home, without Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman, their defense is not nearly as imposing.
- Vance McDonald – He’s Kaep’s guy and the Bears have given up 3 TDs to opposing TEs the past four weeks and are missing LB Freeman and S Adrian Amos, which is a big blow. All of this sets up well for McD.
- Jordan Howard – They are still missing both Guards and their right tackle, but QB Barkley had the offense moving and Howard was the foundation. He should have a solid game against a 49er run defense giving up a monster 34 FPG to opposing RBs the past five weeks.
- Marquess Wilson – Saw 11 targets and had a monster game last week and is the teams’ most talented receiver by far. He should face off against CB Tramaine Brock who is decent, but who also got roasted by Devante Parker last week.
- Matt Barkley – Actually played pretty well and is up against a 49ers pass defense that is giving 28.3 FPG to opposing QBs the past five weeks.
Texans vs Packers (-6.5 o/u 45.5)
- Lamar Miller – He’s living that Todd Gurley life, but after starting tough, the Packers have been gashed by opposing RBs lately, giving up 4.8 YPC and a 28 FPG to RBs the past five weeks. Fortunately for him, he’s an every down RB and will be used whether they are winning or losing. The availability of Packers LB Clay Mathews could also help as he is dealing with a sprained shoulder.
- DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller V – This could come back and bite me in the rear end, but with Hopkins seeing more time in the slot and Fuller looking healthier, I could see both of these guys come through with at least WR3 value, which is at least something. The Packers are giving up 41.6 FPG to WRs the past five weeks, so they have a chance.
- C.J. Fiedorowicz – Brock loves looking his way and he’s seeing a ton of targets. He makes for a solid back end TE1 against a Packers team giving up over 17 FPG the past five weeks.
- Brock Osweiler – He goes by the name Brock Osweiler. Enough said. Expect to see Tom Savage soon, if the rest of the team is lucky.
- Aaron Rodgers – Brock will help put the Packers in good field position and Rodgers will take advantage at home. While the Texans do have a strong defense they are giving up a big 32 FPG in last five games. The Texans also have a slew of injuries on the backend, which should help Rodgers and these receivers with CB Jonathan Joseph (shin) limited, CB Kareem Jackson (hamstring) limited and S Andre Hal (illness) not practicing.
- Davante Adams, Jordy Nelson – These two are leading the charge for this team and should be started at home even against a tougher pass defense. They might not go off, meaning they will probably each have at least 5 catches for 100+ yards or a TD … so I guess they will.
- Randall Cobb – Nothing scary about the matchup, but unless he scores a TD, he’s more of a 5 catch for 50 yard guy with Adams now the number 2 (possibly number 1) dawg in town.
- James Starks – If they give Starks another shot at lead duties he should produce as mid-range RB2. However, he does have a few things working against him: 1) he averaged just 2.4 YPC on 17 touches last week after averaging 2.8 the week before; 2) HC McCarthy said they want to get Christine Michael and Ty Montgomery more involved and that Michael has picked up the offense very fast; 3) they sometimes use a fullback at the goal line and; 4) the Texans are giving up just 3.2 YPC over the past five weeks. So there is a lot of risk here.
Eagles vs Bengals (+1.5 o/u 42.5)
- Darren Sproles and Wendell Smallwood – It looks like Ryan Mathews will sit this week again, making Smallwood a viable starter. The biggest issue is how the touches will be divided up between the two. It looks like a game that Sproles should do well in, yet Smallwood will likely see the goal line looks and did run pretty well last week in limited action. It’s tough to fully rely on either guy, but I’m thinking both make for decent flex plays, with Sproles the edge in PPR and Smallwood in standard against a Bengals team giving up nearly 135 yards on the ground the past 7 weeks.
- Jordan Matthews – He should be good to go after exited last weeks game with an ankle injury, but he will be hard to trust as anything more than a WR3 with the injury and going up against a good, although not great, Bengals secondary.
- Zach Ertz – Bengals have been bad against the TE, as LB Karlos Dansby hasn’t got it done for them this year as they would have hoped. He’s best relied on as a back end TE1, but the talent and matchup is there for much more against a Bengals team giving up 18.5 FPG to tight ends the past five weeks.
- Carson Wentz – He’s a viable starter in two QB leagues but I would still look to fade him in leagues using just one QB since his receiving core is hard to trust fully.
- Dorial Green-Beckham – The Bengals give up catches but not huge plays at home to opposing receivers for the most part, and while Beckham looked good in bursts last week, you can tell it’s still not all there for him, making him tough to totally trust just yet. Against this secondary giving up the 5th fewest yards to WRs on the season, he’s a deep league play only.
- Andy Dalton – Always throws for 1 TD, but only has 2 TDs twice and no games with more than that. So …. That’s Dalton.
- Tyler Eifert – Another tough matchup for him against a secondary giving up only around 9 FPG to the TE position the past five weeks. That said, last week against an even tougher matchup he was able to haul in 5 catches for 68 yards and a TD. I can see a repeat of that line this week.
- Brandon LaFell and Tyler Boyd – Both guys saw 9 targets last week and the Eagles CBs are giving up catches and 45 FPG to WRs the past five weeks. Still, they are merely WR3’s and not especially strong ones at that.
- Jeremy Hill – Saw six targets last week and he should get most of the work on the ground, despite Rex Burkhead out snapping him. Through volume alone he’s a solid RB2.
Chiefs vs Falcons (-3.5 o/u 49)
- Spencer Ware – No DE Clayborn is a big boost for this run game and he should bounce back this week with a solid game against a Falcons defense giving up 8 catches and 28.8 FPG to opposing RBs the past five weeks.
- Travis Kelce – Has 3 hundred yard games in the past three weeks. With Maclin out, he's locked and loaded as one of the better TE plays of the week.
- Tyreek Hill – Without CB Trufant, this Falcons secondary is very beatable and is giving up g 42.8 FPG to opposing WRs the past five weeks. Hill is a great gadget player, so you don’t really know where the plays are going to come from, but they will come as he is being targeted on over 31% of his routes, the best in the league. With Maclin out again this week, Hill is a WR3 with WR1 upside.
- Alex Smith – No CB Trufant or DE Clayborn is a big boost to this whole offense and should provide Smith with enough time to throw to make some plays in what could end up being a high scoring affair. He’s on the road, so I’m fading in DFS, but if you need a streamer or a QB2, he’s on the map.
- Matt Ryan – He is great at home and despite one solid corner, this Chief’s secondary can be lit up, as we saw Trevor Siemian do last week.
- Julio Jones – With CB Nelson injured, Julio naturally lines up against CB Kenneth Acker, who he should handle with ease. My fear for him is that they move S Eric Berry over to double cover him, since he is by far the teams’ biggest offensive passing threat, while they let CB Marcus Peters handle and lock down Taylor Gabriel on the other side.
- Mohamed Sanu – With all the attention on Julio and with Peters on Gabriel on the outside, Sanu is going to dominate PFF’s #117 rated CB, Gaines, in the slot. Sanu is going to go off for a big game this week.
- Devonta Freeman / Tevin Coleman – Both make far better flex plays if you can, as opposed to solid RB2’s. Upside always there as the short passing game to them may be the best way to beat this defense outside of Sanu.
- Austin Hooper – When Safety Berry is not helping out on Julio, he will be locking down Hooper. That said, if Berry is tasked to helping out Julio on every passing play, then Hooper should see coverage from a linebacker and could have a big game. There is no telling which way this will go; I’m thinking the latter.
- Taylor Gabriel – He was my Zig Zag podcast take of the week last week, and I told you on that pod that he was going to win you some money in DFS. Unfortunately, this week he will tangle with Chief’s top CB Marcus Peters. That said, the Falcons will look for ways to get Gabriel the ball, but this isn’t the week to really put trust in him.
Bills vs Raiders (-3 o/u 49.5)
- LeSean McCoy – All it takes is one play and he is gone, like we saw last week. He’s the foundation of their offense and with Oakland giving up the 3rd most rushing yards to opposing RBs, he’s a must start as always.
- Tyrod Taylor – He makes for a solid QB2 with weekly upside due to his rushing ability. Vegas projects a high scoring close game, so I think he can be used safely as a QB1 if you need some help.
- Sammy Watkins – Argggg … just when we thought he was back, he has been limited with swelling in his foot all week. He does have a tough matchup on paper against CB Sean Smith, but Smith can't hang with Watkins deep (if his foot is okay) and Tyrod will take some shots. Fortunately the Raiders best CB, David Amerson, is also probably going to miss.
- Derek Carr – The injury on his throwing hand is a concern, but the Bills have been lit up, allowing 26.5 FPG over the past five weeks. Due to the finger injury, he is also more likely to play out of the shotgun for most of the game, which bodes well for this passing attack, although could potentially hamper the run game not being out of the eye. As long as the finger is okay, he should be good to go.
- Michael Crabtree & Amari Cooper – Cooper killed me last week. While the Bills have given up a ton of points to opposing WRs this season, their CBs are playing a bit better lately. I would trust both of these guys in season long as WR2’s but I’m staying away in DFS.
- Latavius Murray – A part time player that has a tough matchup. In season long leagues he’s an every week RB2 because of the TDs and at least DeAndre Washington was a healthy scratch last week. One concern is Carr's inability to take handoffs from under center due to his finger injury, meaning Murray will have to just grab and go, which is not ideal.
Buccaneers vs Chargers (-4 o/u 47.5)
- Jameis Winston – Despite a strong pass defense, the Chargers games always turn into shootouts, giving up nearly 23 FPG to opposing QBs the past 5 weeks. It might be a tough slog, but he probably gets you 20.
- Doug Martin – Volume is king with him, but he’s barely averaging 3 YPC and the Chargers have a solid run defense. I wouldn’t be surprised if he had 50 to 60 yards and not much else.
- Mike Evans – He schooled Richard Sherman at home, but on the road against PFF’s #5 rated CB Casey Heyward could prove a tougher challenge. He’s seeing insane volume, but Heyward could keep him check.
- Cameron Brate – He’s TD dependent, but at least last week he caught a TD … before it was taken off the board. He’s as viable as any of the myriad of TEs this year with Reed, Gronk and Walker missing this week.
- Philip Rivers – The Tampa D played great last week, but they will be a let down across the country this week and have been giving up nearly 26 FPG to opposing QBs the past five weeks.
- Tyrell Williams – The shoulder injury is a concern, but if he can play, he should be a solid WR2 in season long leagues. Due to his injury, and the presence of top notch CB Alterraun Verner, I would probably fade in DFS.
- Dontrelle Inman- With Travis Benjamin still banged up, Inman is stepping up. Last week he went 119/1 and has an amazing matchup against CB Vernon Hargreaves III III, PFF’s 101st rated CB.
- Melvin Gordon III – Volume is king, and he gets all the volume he can handle. Once again, despite a great showing last week, the Bucs are giving up 4.5 YPC and Gordon should be a rock solid RB play at home.
- Antonio Gates – Like Eric Ebron, Gates put up a goose egg last week, look for him to bounce back against a Bucs team giving up over 16 FPG to opposing TEs the past five weeks. The Bucs are also missing their safety, Chris Conte, which should help.
- Hunter Henry – He scored last week, but saw just three targets. If you need help, he’s viable, but he’s not sure thing with such little volume.
Redskins vs Cardinals (-2.5 o/u 49.5)
- Pierre Garcon – With CB Branch on Crowder & CB Patrick Peterson on DJax ... Garcon gets a kush matchup against Marcus Cooper, PFFs 117th rated corner who got burned mightily last week. Sneaky play to win you a DFS GPP this week.
- Kirk Cousins – This is as tough as it gets, on the road against this Cardinals defense giving up around 19 FPG to opposing QBs. Cousins is on a serious roll though, averaging almost 30 FPG in the last 5 games, so use him in season long if you don’t have a better option, but this isn’t the week to get tricky, especially with Jordan Reed likely to miss. If he plays, it’s a little more comforting.
- Jamison Crowder – He’s been on fire lately, so I know it’s hard to bench him, but he’s more of a mid-range WR3 this week against CB Tyvon Branch, who is back from injury this week.
- Rob Kelly – Not dynamic enough to go off against the league’s second best run defense.
- Chris Thompson – Nope.
- DeSean Jackson – Will see Patrick Peterson, so you are just hoping he gets lucky.
- Vernon Davis – Davis is a reach play, but this Cards defense plays the tight end tough, so don't assume you are getting high end value this week.
- David Johnson – He’s the man.
- Larry Fitzgerald – He’s as dependable a WR2 in PPR leagues as you can find and Josh Norman won’t be covering him in the slot. Instead he will see CB Kendall Fuller, PFF’s 89th rated corner.
- Carson Palmer – He’s been horrible lately, but passes to Dj and Fitz should provide him with usable QB2 numbers.
- John Brown, Michael Floyd, J.J. Nelson – I don’t know, do you? One will see Josh Norman, the other CB Breeland. It looks like Brown will miss, which means at least Nelson should be on the field a lot. Honestly, just stay away.
Giants vs Steelers (-6 o/u 49)
- Eli Manning – He’s up and down as usual, but all he needs is to get the ball into Beckham’s hands and he can do the rest. While the Steelers are giving up only 18.5 FPG, this game could feature a lot of passing.
- Sterling Shepard – He had zero targets last week and Eli apologized for that, so look for him to get at least 4 or 5. If you need 5 catches for 50 yards, I think he can come through and possible score as well.
- Rashad Jennings – Steelers giving up just 3.4 YPC and if he couldn’t get it done against the Browns, what makes us believe he can have a great game here. He’s just a RB4, but at least he will get the ball a bit if you are desperate.
- Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown – At home, these guys are locked and loaded as usual. That said, the Giants have a very strong defense, so while they will put up top numbers this week, they might not be silly good.
- Ben Roethlisberger – He should be fine, but the Giants defense gives up just 17.6 FPG to opposing QBs the past five weeks, so this is a tougher matchup than usual. More of a back-end QB1.
- Ladarius Green – He was targeted on 3 of 14 plays, so while he only played on 26% of the snaps, he turned that into 67 yards and the Giants are giving up nearly 16 FPG to TEs the past five weeks. With a full 10 days rest, the explosion could be coming any time, but yes, it’s still a risk until we see it happen. The signs are there my friends, the signs are there.
Panthers vs Seahawks (-6.5 o/u 44.5)
- Greg Olsen – He’s been down the past few weeks, but does seem to do well against this Seattle team. So in season long use him, but he’s not a great upside DFS play.
- Cam Newton – Cam goes into Seattle without his LT Michael Oher and both his Centers, Ryan Kalil and Gino Gradkowski, who were placed on IR. I’m not feeling him this week, so if you have a better option, go for it.
- Kelvin Benjamin – While Richard Sherman got beat up by Mike Evans last week, he's a different animal at home and the Seahawks get back S Earl Thomas and their other CB DeShawn Shead. This is a Seattle team playing angry.
- Jonathan Stewart – The return of S Earl Thomas and DE Michael Bennett doesn’t bode well for him.
- Russell Wilson, Doug Baldwin, Jimmy Graham and Thomas Rawls – The gang failed you last week, I know. You are sitting here, reading this, saying to yourself, no way. Not again. Not me! But these guys got embarrassed and they have a lot of pride and are playing back at home against a Panthers defense missing ILB Luke Kuechly, S Kurt Coleman and DT Kawann Short is banged up. The Panthers best CB James Bradberry should be on Lockett most of the game, leaving Baldwin to do battle with PFF’s 114th rated corner, Leonard Johnson. This all bodes well for these guys to get back on track. I should also note that for some reason Jermaine Kearse has actually done well against the Panthers in their prior meetings, so for those in desperate need, he's worth a flier.
Colts vs Jets (+2 o/u 49.5)
- Andrew Luck, Donte Moncrief, T.Y. Hilton – They need a win and the Jets are a funnel defense in the air, so all of these guys should be very active and make for fine starts in all leagues with Hilton and Moncrief both WR2’s with upside. Corners Buster Skrine and Darrelle Revis are PFF’s worst ranked duo.
- Frank Gore – The Jet’s run defense is very solid, but they have been worn down a bit and are giving up give up 4.5 YPC and 7 catches a game over the past five weeks. If you need 8 to 10 points in standard leagues and 12 to 15 in PPR, I think he comes through with that, but probably not much more.
- Jack Doyle and Dwayne Allen – The eat each others value and the Jets give up just 7.9 FPG to TEs over the past five weeks. Best to look elsewhere.
- Matt Forte – The Colts giving up 15.5 FPG to RBs the last 5 weeks and he should be able to find running room against them on the ground and through the air. He’s an overlooked DFS play this week.
- Brandon Marshall – He should keep things rolling at home in a national game. Colts CB Vontae Davis has been banged up and burned all season long, so Marshall should get it done as a high end WR2 with upside this week. He put up 7/101/1 on them last season and could beat that this year.
- Quincy Enunwa – Went 5/109/1 last week and should keep things rolling with Fitzpatrick under center. He has a slightly tougher matchup against Darius Butler in the slot, but if you are in need of a PPR WR3, he’s a viable play this week in a projected high scoring affair.
- Ryan Fitzpatrick – The Colts are giving up 27.5 FPG to opposing QBs the past five weeks. He can always melt down, but in a projected shootout, he is a viable sleeper in 2 QB leagues.
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