Photo: Mark Konezny, USA Today Sports

Each week, I’ll be touring the league’s top dark zone outlooks – plays from inside the opposing team’s 10-yard line – with DFS on my mind. I’m always looking for touchdowns (specifically multi-touchdown performances) to take down tournaments, so while the dark zone doesn’t outright decide my GPP lineups, it certainly informs them.

In Week 3, of course, I’m dealing with limited information, so the science isn’t yet as tight as I’d like it to be. But based on what we think we know about 2016 dark zonerolesand defenses, here’s a rundown of who catches my eye for Week 3:

Passing Game Notables

Odell Beckham Jr., allen robinson

Patience is a virtue, and those who keep the faith in these two will be rewarded. They’re ascending studs with fantastic dark zone track records, and both these offenses are almost certain to trend upward from their current floors. Beckham, especially, should see a touchdown uptick before long. He’s drawing the lion’s share of Giants attention near the goal line, and he’s got two years of red zone history as an elite touchdown producer firmly on his side. There’s modest concern over Robinson, who plays in an offense that’s thrown just two passes from the dark zone thus far and gets Chris Ivory back imminently. But he’s simply too strong an asset near the goal line for the team to ignore his TD-making skills. Last year, no team threw more from inside the 10 than Jacksonville, and no player drew more such looks than Robinson. We’ll soon see his catch-point dominance manifested before long.

Kelvin Benjamin

The revolution is on: Benjamin is laughing at the foolish (I was one of them) who questioned his dominance of the Panthers offense. He’s the clear favorite of Cam Newton, but perhaps just as importantly, he’s really defying his rookie dark zone inefficiency. In his debut season, Benjamin turned just 2 of his 9 dark zone targets (a fairly pitiful 22.2%) into touchdowns; thus far, he’s scored on both his 2016 looks. (Last week’s 13-yarder, by the way, was a workmanlike thing of beauty.) The Panthers offense is definitely pacing up from its norm, so the scoring opportunities aren’t going away. The massive, massive Benjamin could be one of the league’s elite TD producers going forward.

Larry Fitzgerald

No one has seen more dark zone looks through two weeks than Fitzgerald’s five. In fact, all five have come from the 4-yard line or closer; his fades and ball skills are the offense’s clear focal points near the goal line. With John Brown severely limited and Michael Floyd usually a short-yardage afterthought, the future Hall of Famer’s role seems unlikely to change. His Week 3 date with the Bills’ shoddy pass defense looks tempting.

Jordy Nelson, randall cobb

Surprisingly, through two games, Nelson has drawn three dark zone targets to Cobb’s 1. Cobb has always been far more effective from there, though, so I expect this to even out before long. One of the league’s best touchdown creators from in close, Cobb seems set to erupt with 2-3 scores one of these weeks. This looks like a good time to take a GPP stab – Cobb will be exceptionally low-owned, facing a mediocre slot cornerback (Quandre Diggs), in a game Vegas projects to the week’s third-highest point total (48). Nelson, likely to be shadowed by Lions stud Darius Slay for much of this Sunday, is a shaky proposition to make noise.

Stefon Diggs

Generally speaking, I’m also aboard the Diggs train, but not with reckless abandon – and mainly in cash contests. A major reason is that he just doesn’t project to generate many touchdowns in relation to his fantasy WR1/2 peers. Through two games, the Vikings have thrown just one pass in the dark zone (a TD to Kyle Rudolph), despite carrying Diggs and two big-bodied split ends (Charles Johnson and Laquon Treadwell). In fact, through 15 NFL games, Diggs has only been targeted once from inside the 10. That leaves it up to him to create his touchdowns, and while he’s certainly capable of it, it clouds his weekly outlook by a hair. His career TD rate (7.4%) is thoroughly mediocre.

All of that said – you want Diggs this week, the last time he’ll come cheaply throughout the DFS industry and won’t need WR1 numbers to bring high value. I’m not talking you out of him by any means. Just note that he’ll have a harder weekly road to those WR1 numbers than many of the guys he’ll soon be priced right next to.

Mohamed Sanu

As has become the norm in Atlanta, Julio Jones is simply not a real part of the Falcons’ dark zone plans. He’s never been efficient there, and has always lagged noticeably behind most elite receivers in usage. As a result, complementary targets like Sanu have typically soaked up strong short-yardage work. He’s already been targeted twice from inside the 10, tied for second in the league, while Jones hasn’t yet been looked for. In a likely shootout with the Saints (current 54-point Vegas total), Sanu is as fair a bet as anyone to find the end zone from close range.

Marcus Mariota, delanie walker

By my projection model, Mariota looks set to lead Week 3 passers in dark zone attempts. He’s thrown seven such passes already – completing three for touchdowns – and faces a beatable Raiders secondary that’s often challenged near the goal line. His salary is very palatable for a guy with such strong TD potential. His most likely beneficiary is Walker, who led the team in dark zone targets last year and remains its top scoring threat.

Jesse James

James leads all tight ends through two weeks with three dark zone targets. But I’m skeptical that he’ll keep that stranglehold. Markus Wheaton is nearing a return and could bring another mouth to the table as soon as this Sunday. And last week, little-used reserve Xavier Grimble siphoned four targets from James, scoring an impressive touchdown along the way. The Steelers know James is a blocker first and brings little dynamism to the passing game, so it’s unlikely they’ll feature him to this degree much longer.

Running Game Notables

C.J. Anderson

Only Melvin Gordon projects by my model to find the end zone more easily than Anderson in Week 3 – and I’m markedly more confident Anderson will. As the top weapon (by a mile) alongside a caretaker passing game, Anderson’s usage dominance carries over into the dark zone. He’s tied for second league-wide in dark zone rushes, and turning them into touchdowns at an elite rate (60%). It’s hard to ask for a better Week 3 matchup than the Bengals, who are struggling to defend the run in general. As far as touchdown dice rolls go, this one looks too easy.

Melvin Gordon

A third no-brainer. Gordon has taken every dark zone carry for the Chargers, scoring on 60% of them. And with Danny Woodhead’s injury, he’s inheriting even more red zone work. And the porous Colts defense has thus far allowed 40% of such rushes to end in touchdowns. Gordon’s too-low price tag will draw gobs of ownership attention this week, so he’ll lose that fun GPP appeal. But he’s also one of the three most stable cash options this week, thanks in large part to his dynamite short-yardage outlook and near-certain TD odds.

Ryan Mathews

He carries the mail on all levels of the field for an offense that runs in the dark zone more often than anyone. As a result, his nine dark zone rushes and three touchdowns lead the league. I don't know whether I expect that kind of opportunity this week – the Steelers are his first strong opponent, and game script may not land in the form of numerous goal line snaps. And it’s hard to profile him for DFS purposes; his ceiling is more appealing than his floor, yet his ownership will be through the roof. Either way, he projects as the week’s third-best TD scorer, so it might be best not to overthink game theory on this one.

Jerick McKinnon, matt asiata

One of Fantasy Twitter’s most popular topics this week was the expectation that Asiata will produce touchdowns better than Jerick McKinnon. There’s merit to it: Asiata thoroughly dominated short-yardage work while in this boat in 2014. He actually finished seventh in the league in dark zone rushes, scoring on nine of his 23 attempts, an impressive 39.1%. Only two weeks into 2016, my projection model doesn’t know what to do with this situation, but I’m on board. McKinnon should lead slightly in carries and easily in yardage, but if 2014 was any indication, Asiata could benefit from any trip into the red zone. McKinnon will dominate ownership, but Asiata brings the multi-TD potential needed to place in large GPPs.

Eddie Lacy, james starks

I can’t help but to weekly expect the touchdown floodgates to snap open for either Lacy or Starks. And when it happens, it’ll be borderline glorious. Through two weeks, only one team (Philadelphia) has run the ball in the dark zone more than Green Bay, yet just two TDs have resulted. (That’s reason #29 not to release an All-Pro guard in September.) Before long, the Packers’ starting back will start finding the end zone. Lacy, the clear featured weapon when healthy and happy, sports a significantly stronger career dark zone TD rate (33.9%) than the league average. The offense is limping a bit, but keeping busy in the red zone, so opportunity should never be an issue. With a slipping salary and already low ownerships, a GPP dice roll on Lacy could pay off on any given week with 2-3 touchdowns.

DeMarco Murray

Here’s an interesting case. Murray has two touchdowns on his 2016 books, but both came on Week 1 receptions. I don’t see that as particularly fluky, but it’s certainly an outlier, and it’s worth noting he’s only taken one carry from inside the 10 through two games. That did represent the team’s only dark zone rush thus far, so he could well dominate whatever dark zone usage the Titans do manage to find. The problem is that, industry-wide, he’s priced for those two TD catches. He doesn’t really bring the volume or TD opportunity outlooks you’d like at his costs, so he’ll likely need to find the end zone once or twice to bring value.

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