Simply put: you’re going to want to check in here each week before setting your DraftKings lineups. That’s because I’ll be helping you sift through your DFS options without spinning my wheels talking fantasy scoring.
No, my goal will not be to opine to you on the highest scoring plays of the week’s slate; that’s a semi-fruitless task, and one you’re swarmed with on any other DFS advice site. Rather, I’m going to be reporting to you on the value of your options – their scoring abilities relative to their salaries. You’ll be filled in on the details of two weekly measures:
DK Points (DK Pts) is the player’s DraftKings projection for the week, rooted in the offense’s and defense’s performances over the last three weeks. (For the first few weeks, the model fills the gaps with my per-game projections for each player.) Please note that the goal of these projections is NOT to predict an exact point total; I’m not interested in supernaturally conjuring visions of A.J. Green’s next 40-point explosion. Rather, I’m keeping a tight view of a player’s capabilities and seeking the likely outcome of his matchup – in a sense, I’m seeking out his probabilities of reaching a certain scoring level.
H-Value (DK H-Val) is an attempt to reconcile a player’s scoring projection with his per-dollar value. You can’t fill a lineup with exclusively high-salaried players, and you’d never load up on just cheap, low-ceiling options. H-value brings the two together, marrying a player’s projected scoring and salary to lay out his true meaning to a DFS roster. The formula is simple:
(DK Pts^1.73205 / DK Sal) * 2,000
On to my Week 8 DraftKings plays:
Quarterback
Cash Considerations
Luck has underwhelmed at times thus far, but seems to be on track. But despite hitting cash value three weeks in a row, his salary has dipped to its lowest point in years ($6,800). It’s puzzling as to why DraftKings pricing doesn’t factor in his favorable matchup: over the last 3 weeks, Kansas City has allowed a rough 8.18 yards per attempt and a slate-high 6 touchdowns from inside the 10-yard line. There’s also no consideration for his now-healthy supporting cast, which elevates him to “easy play” status. He’s far exceeded this 20-point cash marker for three straight with a patched-together receiving corps, after all.
Palmer again comes dirt-cheap on the verge of a difficult matchup. But we can take comfort that his volume (39.4 projected attempts) will carry him to value – and the potential of another Panthers shootout brings serious GPP appeal. Carolina presents a dicey opponent in theory, but they’ve been buzzsawed twice in three games (503 yards from Matt Ryan, then 465 and 4 touchdowns from Drew Brees) and seem to have no answer for downfield receivers at the moment. Palmer’s TD outlook is iffy, but 300+ yards and 1 score would dump him very close to value, and his potential for (much) more is palpable.
I don’t care for Rodgers in a GPP; I never thought I’d say this, but his ceiling seems limited. Last week, it took 56 attempts against a sorry Bears defense to generate 3.9x value. But I like him in cash this week in Week 8’s highest-scoring Vegas projection (53 points). He’s averaged a whopping 47.7 throws over the last three games, and while the yardage efficiency hasn’t been there, there’s enough volume in play for cash value. I take comfort in assuming his fumbling is fluky, and that his arsenal of weapons can avoid Desmond Trufant enough to create points.
GPP Options
Most DFSers will shy from Brees, who faces the Seahawks’ imposing defense. That just makes him all the likelier to bring home a strong contrarian week in GPP games. Seattle’s defense is anything but targetable, but their last two opponents have thrown for 342 and 335 yards, and Brees’ home resume is just scintillating. He’s averaged a whopping 386 yards and 3.3 scores over his last 10 games in the Superdome, numbers that would easily bring 4x tournament value. He needs to occupy serious space in your GPS portfolio.
Taylor’s passing is very hit-or-miss for fantasy purposes, and New England doesn’t exactly field a targetable defense. But as always, Taylor’s legs and anemic price point have him squarely in the GPP discussion. He’s topped this 20-point marker twice straight, with just 179 and 221 passing yards on the board – adding 6.8 and 9.5 DraftKings points, respectively, on the ground. Four weeks ago, Taylor racked up 246 air yards and a touchdown at Foxboro; if he matches that Sunday at home, he won’t need more than solid-to-good rushing totals to hit value.
Running Back
Cash Considerations
Booker was fast-rising as cheap yet upside-packed salary relief even before C.J. Anderson’s injury was announced. He’d worked his way into a timeshare alongside Anderson and had actually been more productive, and at $3,700, he was a chic stab at clear 3x value. Anderson’s absence only cements him as the week’s strongest RB play. He’ll dominate a backfield that’s relied upon very heavily – the two combined for 35 touches last week – and needs just 11 points to return value. Don’t overthink Booker; most of your cash field will be rostering him and likely bringing home 3x scoring at a minimum.
Splitting time with Tevin Coleman, Freeman has managed to reach or land within a point of 3x value in 4 of his last 5 games. With Coleman likely to miss Sunday’s tilt with the Packers, Freeman looks like a near-lock for cash value. He’s taken 19+ touches in 5 straight games, and shouldn’t have much trouble topping 20 while alone in the backfield as a home favorite. Green Bay’s run defense has looked invincible on paper, but has really padded its numbers against some anemic run games. Ezekiel Elliott blew them wide open two weeks ago, after all. As the backfield dominator on all levels of the field and in the passing game, Freeman looks as safe as they come from under $7,000.
Nobody waves the red cape for backs quite like the Saints. Across their 6 games, only the anemic running games of the Giants and Chargers have failed to top 100 yards. And over their last four, opposing RBs have managed to score nine touchdowns (plus a short Cam Newton score). As a result of this matchup, Michael’s top-5 outlook soars from “solid” to “unquestioned.” He’s not dazzling anyone, averaging just 3.35 yards per rush over his last 3 games and projecting to a good-not-great 77.2 yards. But just one TD would shove those numbers into cash-game value, and that’s merely a floor against this pitiful defense.
Speaking of Elliott, I’m finally on board with paying a high cost for him. By now, he’s unquestionably among the short list of backs deserving of a weekly $7,000 investment. This week, he’ll need 21-22 points to cash, a number he’s reached in 4 straight games. I like Philadelphia’s punishing defense, but Elliott boasts stout volume in every facet of the backfield. Assuming he finds the end zone and catches 2-3 balls, he’ll hit his marker with just 110 yards – and he averages 142 over his last four.
Rodgers has, against all odds, excelled in the Buccaneers’ decimated backfield. He’s racked up 129 and 163 scrimmage yards in his two starts, so going touchdown-less hasn’t prevented him from crushing this 17-point cash marker. Rodgers is not a particularly good player, so the bottom could fall out at any point. But DraftKings simply still values him too cheaply; 17-18 points is well within reach for a bell cow back facing Oakland.
GPP Options
You want him heavily involved in your portfolio, regardless of matchup. Johnson is the Cardinals’ engine on all levels of the field; his ceiling for yardage and receptions are virtually unknown, and he weekly carries a top-tier touchdown outlook thanks to extensive short-yardage use. It’s fair to wonder about his true upside against a great Panthers run defense, but not overly so. He’s fresh off a 41-touch day against Seattle than launched him into GPP gold status last week, and a 5.0-YPC performance against the stout Jets run defense. Besides, his likely ownership dip against Carolina makes up for much of that hand-wringing.
DFSers are waiting for the Ware shoe to drop, and for Jamaal Charles to reclaim his spot atop the Kansas City backfield. Hot take alert: it’s probably not going to happen. Charles is 30, only moderately healthy, and simply not as effective thus far as the mega-talented Ware. As a result, shrewd DFSers should be all over Ware while much of the field avoids him. The beast is averaging 5.2 yards per rush and an impossible 19.0 per catch; he’s creating huge plays and dominating the Kansas City volume every week. That means there’s floor (18+ touches in 5 of 7 games), but also ceiling – Ware has yet to tap much into the touchdown market. His typical yardage-happy performance, combined with 1-2 scores, all seems very doable against the league’s most pathetic all-around defense.
With LeSean McCoy’s status again iffy, Gillislee (at just $3,800) would see high cash and GPP ownership rates if he were fully healthy himself. As it stands, though, the uncertainty and his lack of an NFL resume should push his number down fairly low. That makes him moderately attractive in GPP contests, where he’d need just 15 points to land value. Gillislee is an athletic, explosive young back, one who can hit that marker with just a big run or two. And he should have plenty of volume with which to make it happen – as the starter in a run-first scheme, he projects to a floor of 17 or 18 rushes.
Wide Receiver
Cash Considerations
The Packers passing game has always been fairly predictable for DFS purposes. Jordy Nelson has typically claimed the strongest target and big-play shares, while Cobb has run a bit behind him overall with added touchdown potential. (He’s historically been far superior to Nelson in the dark zone.) But of late, Cobb has taken the reins, claiming a dominant 25.9% of Aaron Rodgers’ looks over the last three weeks. With volume like the Packers have offered, that’s been awfully significant – he’s caught 27 balls over that span and delivered values of 3.7x, 3.1x, and 4.9x. The salary hikes a bit this week, but at $6,400 he remains more-than-affordable for an apparent target hog and solid TD threat. Considering he’ll dodge shutdown cornerback Desmond Trufant from the slot, Cobb might be the week’s top value overall.
There are indeed football reasons to target Evans this week. Most importantly, rostering him is a way to load up on high-upside chalk, as he’ll be highly valued at his $1,500 discount from Julio Jones. As you know, you should be loading your cash rosters with as much high ownership as possible. And when that chalk carries a high ceiling, it’s the best of both worlds: floor matters a little less, and ceiling can shove you over the line on its own. An inefficient or otherwise unproductive Evans week won’t hurt you much – but it’s hard to imagine him underperforming against Oakland. Wideouts have routinely feasted on the Raiders’ very burnable cornerbacks throughout the year.
Similarly, there are no football reasons whatsoever to fade Jones. He’s the dominator in an offense that tends to run a lot more plays than we’ve seen of late, and he faces a decimated Packers secondary in Atlanta. His early-season swoon looks far behind us, with 7-12 receptions in 4 of his last 5 games and a host of contest-tilting chunk plays. I do wonder a bit about his ownership levels – whether he’ll carry as much chalk as I’d like in a guy I plug into most of my lineups. Many DFSers tend to skip the top-salaried option right out of hand, and Jones’ $9,600 salary is indeed weighty. But I can’t imagine him falling short of 2.5x value, and we all know it’s not much of a stretch to expect more.
It’s the same story for Thomas: underpriced despite consistent production and another strong outlook. Thomas has actually hit 4x value for four straight weeks as the Saints’ most targeted wideout and prime touchdown threat. Many DFSers will wring their hands over his matchup with Seattle, but he’s primarily a slot guy and won’t see much Richard Sherman. Slot men Quincy Enunwa and Larry Fitzgerald have posted 6- and 9-catch games over the Seahawks’ recently – and neither of those guys can boast the combination of volume and homefield resume of Drew Brees. Thomas looks like a near-lock to reach his 15 points.
GPP Options
I knew there was a reason I drafted Tate in 20% of my MFL10 leagues. His early-season swoons in both usage and efficiency were both distinct and alarming, to the point that season-long owners dropped him in droves and his DraftKings cost fell as low as $4,400. But the slot extraordinaire seems to have reclaimed a spot near the top of Matthew Stafford’s priority list. A word of warning: Tate’s volume eruption has coincided perfectly with Theo Riddick’s absence, so a Riddick return could dampen things. But at least we know Tate remains capable, and he comes too cheaply ($5,100) for his volume potential.
He’s not an ideal target in deep GPPs, as his ownership is likely to crack 8-10%. But he’s a target based upon his immense potential for 4x value. He’s only cracked this week’s 30-point marker once all year, but could be on the verge of making it (close to) the norm. We know he’s insanely gifted, of course, and that he’s among the league’s elite producers of big downfield plays. We know that he’s surpassed Michael Crabtree as the most voluminous option in Oakland. But the Raiders are finally deploying him a bit near the goal line; he’s been the target on 3 of Derek Carr’s last 11 passes from inside the 10. And we all know how close he was to converting a few recent end zone throws. The Raiders throw the ball almost exclusively in the dark zone (11 of their last 14 snaps from there), so Cooper is more in play than ever for a multi-touchdown eruption.
My love for Moncrief is and has always been strong, strong, strong, and I’ll happily pounce when he comes cheaply and low-owned. DFSers will likely avoid him in droves as he returns from a five-week absence, with most of the Colts chalk probably going to Jack Doyle and T.Y. Hilton. But Moncrief looks like a true value winner. He’ll cost you just $5,400 and need a 20-point day for GPP value, which looks doable in this scenario. Kansas City cornerbacks have struggled with wideouts throughout the year, and over the last three games only four teams have allowed more touchdown passes. All Moncrief really needs to return value is a successful return into the No. 2 role and a TD.
Tight End
Cash Considerations
Here’s a guy to shoehorn into your lineup. In fact, I’ll be FLEXing Gronkowski in a hefty chunk of my portfolio. There’s lots of value down the salary ranks – a handful of cheap tight ends look likely to bring cheap value – and Gronkowski is back to offering a borderline-WR1 outlook at WR2 cost. At his $7,000 salary, he’d need to produce around the lower end of what he’s done over the last three weeks (18.9, 32.2, and 19.3 points). Martellus Bennett remains involved, but isn’t prohibiting Gronkowski’s production a bit. Even against the Bills defense, I’m not banking against him again.
Yes, it’s a fine week to pay up for tight ends. Olsen is priced highly, and his matchup with the Cardinals is semi-prohibitive. But he’s a volume machine, with 43 targets over his last 4 games, and he’s yet to fall below 64 yards in any game thus far. Arizona doesn’t allow much production to TEs, but Olsen can reach cash value by catching 6-7 balls (he averages 6.5) and finding the end zone. Considering Vegas projects the Panthers to 25.25 points, it’s safe to pay up and expect plenty of ball movement and scoring opportunity.
That said, it’s also a nice week to save on your tight end(s). High-usage guys with upside, like Doyle, come in bunches this week. Colts TEs always carry imperceptible fantasy value – their volume is often at least solid, but the individual distribution is spotty. With Dwayne Allen likely to miss Week 8, though, Doyle is in the driver’s seat to claim another 8-10 targets. Last week’s 22.8-point eruption indeed felt somewhat fluky, but Doyle remains cheap and only needs 10.5 to cash in. And given Luck’s propensity to target TEs near the goal line, there’s still handsome upside in play here. He’s likely to be an ownership-rate king, and it makes sense to follow the herd here.
I’ve long been an admirer of his blend of athleticism and consistency, and it seems Fiedorowicz is starting to pay off for the faithful. He’s seemingly passed Ryan Griffin on the Texans’ totem pole, drawing 56% of the duo’s target share over the last four weeks, and he’s soared beyond 3x value in each one. For Week 8, he looks like a near-lock to at least approach his marker. He’ll likely only need 3-5 scoreless catches to reach it.
GPP Options
Sam Bradford isn’t much to watch, and his Vikings offense will never be mistaken for the Saints. But when Bradford does throw, it tends to go Rudolph’s way – he’s claimed a team-high 24% of his new quarterback’s throws thus far. He’s swooned of late, generating just 14 DraftKings points over his last two outings, but I’m not deterred. His $3,500 salary is very affordable for a team’s volume hog – especially one who’s absolutely dominated targets in the dark zone. A touchdown would all but lock down his GPP value; Rudolph reached this 14-point marker without much trouble in Weeks 3 and 4.
DraftKings just will not price Barnidge appropriately. He’s toppled his 3x marker four times over five weeks, and hit 2.7x the other time. The likely return of Josh McCown to the lineup shoves him into the 4x range; Barnidge’s unlikely emergence came last year with McCown under center. My projection model, which does not take into account his 2015 connection with McCown, expects Barnidge to reach 3.9x value. Take the salary relief anywhere you’re not rostering Fiedorowicz and spend the savings elsewhere.
Defense/Special Teams
Cash Considerations
Minnesota
The salary is semi-prohibitive, but the results should be there. No defense looks more likely to create splash plays this week – they’ve registered multiple sacks in four of six games, and multiple takeaways in five of six. The Vikings disappointed last week, but this Sunday’s opponent is a far less efficient Bears offense captained by Jay Cutler and a messy stable of running backs. I hate paying this cost for a defense, but I will for the (relative) security.
Denver
The matchup looks daunting on paper, but these Broncos typically have little trouble handling Philip Rivers & Co. Over their last 3 meetings, they’ve managed just 14.0 points per game and coughed up the ball 6 times. Like Minnesota, Denver comes costly but safe.
GPP Options
Dallas
Carson Wentz is showing his warts; not many, but enough. Certainly enough to target Dallas here and there for salary relief. Wentz is still playing reasonably well, but his efficiency has dipped wildly in two recent, tough matchups. He’s thrown three interceptions over his last three games and absorbed eight sacks over that span. A road test with a quality divisional rival is where I put some investment into a semi-collapse.
Detroit
Defenses are typically a crapshoot, but I can get behind one that’s taking on Brock Osweiler. He’s just playing such poor football right now that I can’t help expecting another inefficient game.
