Join the Footballguys Daily Update
Start your morning with our roundup of the most important stories in football - with the fantasy insight you need to make league-winning decisions. Delivered straight to your inbox, 100% free.
Simply put: you’re going to want to check in here each week before setting your DraftKings lineups. That’s because I’ll be helping you sift through your DFS options without spinning my wheels talking fantasy scoring.
No, my goal will not be to opine to you on the highest scoring plays of the week’s slate; that’s a semi-fruitless task, and one you’re swarmed with on any other DFS advice site. Rather, I’m going to be reporting to you on the value of your options – their scoring abilities relative to their salaries. You’ll be filled in on the details of two weekly measures:
DK Points (DK Pts) is the player’s DraftKings projection for the week, rooted in the offense’s and defense’s performances over the last three weeks. (For the first few weeks, the model fills the gaps with my per-game projections for each player.) Please note that the goal of these projections is NOT to predict an exact point total; I’m not interested in supernaturally conjuring visions of A.J. Green’s next 40-point explosion. Rather, I’m keeping a tight view of a player’s capabilities and seeking the likely outcome of his matchup – in a sense, I’m seeking out his probabilities of reaching a certain scoring level.
H-Value (DK H-Val) is an attempt to reconcile a player’s scoring projection with his per-dollar value. You can’t fill a lineup with exclusively high-salaried players, and you’d never load up on just cheap, low-ceiling options. H-value brings the two together, marrying a player’s projected scoring and salary to lay out his true meaning to a DFS roster. The formula is simple:
(DK Pts^1.73205 / DK Sal) * 2,000
On to my Week 7 DraftKings plays:
Quarterback
Cash Considerations
Only Denver’s defense has held him definitively below this week’s 21-point cash marker – and that was an easy Falcons win in which Ryan threw just 9 second-half passes. The Chargers present a bit more resistance than their reputation suggests, but they’re still a solid target. They’ve allowed an average of 337 air yards (and 25.41 DraftKings points) over their three road games. Ryan looks like a near-lock for the 300-yard bonus, and he’s thrown multiple scores in every game except that semi-wonky Broncos one. He’ll also be covered in cash-game chalk as a $700 discount from Tom Brady.
The Colts defense is just barely even there. Two of their last three opposing QBs have topped 25 DraftKings points, and the third (Brock Osweiler) managed to rack up 269 yards and 2 scores. And its only real strength, shutdown cornerback Vontae Davis, doesn’t put much of a dent in the Titans’ passing outlook – they don’t carry a strong No. 1 wideout for Davis to neutralize. As a result, Mariota should spend the afternoon finding Delanie Walker and his slot men for chunk plays down the seams. His salary has yet to bloat despite back-to-back eruptions, so his cash marker (18 points) looks like a worst-case scenario. His passing floor isn’t great, but the suddenly dual-threat Mariota (14 rushes over the last two weeks) elevates his overall outlook to the point that $6,000 is a bargain. With a 50-yard rushing day, he’d only need modest passing totals against a poor defense to bring cash value.
GPP Options
His price tag continues to drop, and he now needs a fair 25-26 points for tournament value. It seems high, but he hit that mark on the road just two weeks ago, albeit against a pillow-soft defense. This matchup isn’t sexy, but it’s worth noting that Seattle managed to notch 32 and 36 points against Arizona last year. Wilson hasn’t been generating touchdowns in 2016, which means there’s a good chance we’d need to see him produce on the ground to hit that marker. But that could come at any moment, so DFSers with bigger GPP portfolios should spend a small percentage of it chasing Wilson’s true eruption.
This is about as contrarian as it comes, as Fitzpatrick is a bad quarterback who’s played badly almost all year and could be benched again. But he’s down at the QB-minimum salary, and the Ravens secondary is shaky, as evidenced by Eli Manning’s and Derek Carr’s recent eviscerations. Fitzpatrick will come with next-to-no ownership, and he’ll need just 20-21 points to provide GPP value.
Running Back
Cash Considerations
Murray will be the week’s chalkiest play, for a number of reasons. He’s been dynamite, for one, with 21+ points in 5 of 6 games. With his robust usage in both facets of the offense and strong short-yardage production, there’s nothing not to like. His price tag, far too high last week at $7,700, has fallen by $500 despite a mouthwatering home matchup with the Colts. They’ve allowed 6 backs in 6 games to reach 18+ points, so Murray’s cash floor is quite high.
After a disastrous Week 6 in which game flow worked against him, I’m back on board with Hyde as he takes on a sexier matchup. The Buccaneers have allowed strong days (and cash value) to Todd Gurley, rotational back Tevin Coleman, and reserve talent Cameron Artis-Payne thus far. Hyde, playing on a pace-up offense that features him near the goal line (5 scores on 10 dark zone rushes), so his usage is squarely in line with a back that can easily continue that trend. If he can find the end zone, he shouldn’t need more than 80 total yards or so to get there.
Across the field from Murray, Gore again looks like a bargain. He needs just 14.1 points to cash, a mark he’s topped in 3 of 5 games thus far. As the bell cow for an occasionally prolific offense, he carries a strong weekly floor. It’s annoying that he’s ceded some of his passing game work to his backups, but he’s managed to achieve cash value twice in one-catch games. Gore isn’t a sexy pick, as DraftKings’ pricing algorithm will attest to. But backs averaging 16.3 productive rushes per game should be priced about $4,700.
Despite his true Week 6 breakout, Miller’s salary actually took a sizeable fall for Week 7. That doesn’t smell right: Miller has taken 22+ touches in every game but one, and he’s just about as explosive play-to-play as they come. Much of that pessimism is based on his matchup with Denver, but it’s not a prohibitive one. Both Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman showed brilliantly against them two weeks ago, and Frank Gore/Robert Turbin hit cash value two weeks before that. Miller shouldn’t need more than 100 scrimmage yards and/or a touchdown to bring home cash value.
GPP Options
The chalk will probably lean toward Jamaal Charles, who’s seeing more and more work as he rounds into form. But those factors make Ware especially intriguing in tournaments. He saw just 3% ownership in tournament play last week, and that could even go down as the DFS world expects an increased Charles stake in the offense. But it would be foolhardy to expect a firm turnaround. Ware has been absurdly efficient, churning out 5.5+ yards per rush in 4 of 5 games. That speaks to both floor and ceiling; Ware can reach his 23-point GPP requirement even with diminished volume. The 100-yard bonus and a touchdown should all but guarantee it.
LeVeon Bell
He again costs an arm and a leg, despite a disappointing day at the office in Miami. And the Steelers offense could (should?) be brutal with Landry Jones, one of the league’s weakest backup quarterbacks, at the helm. All of that points to depressed ownership – Bell saw 30% or more in last week’s tournaments – which is always a potential contest-tilter in his case. He’ll see a healthy workload as Todd Haley seeks to keep the ball out of Jones’ hands, and when the Steelers do throw, Bell’s outlook is as strong as anyone’s not named Antonio Brown. Catching balls out of the slot as well as the backfield gives Bell a palatable worst-case floor and his usual sky-high ceiling. It’s a tough climb to his 32-point GPP marker, but Bell can accomplish it with massive volume and a touchdown. A line around 150 scrimmage yards, 7 catches, and a touchdown would bring tournament value, and that’s never out of Bell’s range of expectation.
Melvin Gordon
Gordon’s chalk will likely be fairly low, due to poor efficiency (3.5 yards per rush or fewer in half his games thus far) and a slightly bloated salary ($6,400). What’s not being factored in is his matchup with an Atlanta defense that’s tightening against the pass but collapsing against the run. They’ve allowed performances of 23+ DraftKings points to both Mark Ingram and Christine Michael over their last three games. Gordon has been anything in the world but a dynamic runner, but he’s scored touchdowns at a great rate, so 25-26 points is well within range in a likely shootout.
Rainey may be the only Giants backfield member actually capable of contributing something. He’s a supreme athlete who’s chipped in 18 receptions and 169 scrimmage yards over the past three weeks of extended usage. Rainey has averaged 28 snaps per game over that span, only a hair below what the lead backs (Rashad Jennings and Orleans Darkwa) have seen. That total includes 27 last Sunday despite Jennings’ return to action. Rainey is a semi-longshot for value as a part-timer in a punchless backfield. But with this much salary relief ($3,300), it’s fair to plug him into a deep tournament in the hopes of another 6- or 7-catch day.
Wide Receiver
Cash Considerations
The time to fade Jones may have come to a close. It was brief, but it made sense as he started so slowly yet his salary never got the e-mail. A week after hanging 139 yards and a score on the Seahawks, Jones looks to be the chalkiest and shrewdest play among the top salaries. Jones’ targets have wavered more than we’d like from a cash WR who costs over $9,000, but take heart. Two of the last three No. 1 wideouts to face the Chargers, Amari Cooper and T.Y. Hilton, posted 34.4 and 30.8 points, respectively. Even hitting below that range would easily land cash value for Jones, who needs a reasonable 27 points.
Allen Robinson
That said, it’s fair to take the $1,900 discount down to Robinson. Yes, he’s started slowly, and he hasn’t been the deep-ball or dark zone dynamos he was in 2015. But he maintains a stranglehold on the Jacksonville passing game (24.4% of targets), and he remains the most likely playmaker of the bunch. According to Pro Football Reference, he’s been targeted 11 times on deep balls and 6 times from the 11-yard line or closer. His matchup with a reeling Oakland secondary is sexy, and it looks to keep him awfully chalky. The Raiders have allowed three No. 1 wideouts top 100 yards over their last three games; two caught 11+ balls, and two caught touchdowns.
Thomas was highly owned last week; he exceeded expectations (4.4x value) yet remains underpriced, so he’ll again be carried by much of the pack. Thomas has established himself as a true short-yardage threat, having drawn four targets and scored three times from the dark zone over his last three games. More importantly, he’s seen 25 targets overall during that span. That puts a real floor under him, which is golden considering he needs just 14 points to cash. (He exceeded that mark in each of those three games.) The outlook has its drawbacks, as Drew Brees is simply less productive on the road and faces an active Kansas defense this week. But Thomas is capable of reaching value in two different ways, which is an enormous boon from a sub-$5,000 wideout.
Season-long owners and DFSers alike have waited impatiently for Tate’s breakout, and they might have gotten it in his 10-catch, 165-yard, 1-touchdown show last Sunday. Chasing a repeat wouldn’t necessarily be wise, but following the herd would, and Tate should see lots of Week 7 ownership. That’s because he remains cheap ($4,900) considering last week’s target share and his sizeable upside. Like Thomas, Tate is able to meet value expectations multiple ways – reception volume or electric playmaking from the slot – so there’s a good floor in place. His 15-point cash barrier is very reachable, even against a tough Washington secondary.
GPP Options
He’s been just outstanding lately, but his salary has swollen to a career-high $7,900, and he’s never been a touchdown producer, so his ownership could be markedly lower than you’d think. Look beyond the low TD numbers, though, and you’ll see how easily Cooper could have had several more. He came up just short on two end zone throws two weeks ago, had a long score wiped out on an iffy out-of-bounds call in Week 2, and has been tackled inside the five-yard line a whopping four times. He’s an elite downfield playmaker, which makes up nicely for his lack of short-yardage usage. In any event, he looks like a fine play in any format against a Jacksonville defense that’s been marauded by No. 1 wideouts lately. Steve Smith and Cameron Meredith have each recently turned massive usage into 11-catch days.
If Jordan Reed sits again, Washington should lean heavily upon its slot and underneath targets Sunday. That would be great news for Crowder and Garcon, who work the middle of the field and dark zone heavily in Reed’s place. The two have combined for 7 of Kirk Cousins’ 17 dark zone targets, and they take on a Lions defense that’s allowed receivers to score a whopping 9 times on 12 throws. Crowder and Garcon are priced so low ($4,300 and $3,700, respectively) that a line of solid volume (9-12 targets) and a touchdown would bring home incredibly easy GPP value. Both deserve attention this week.
Surprisingly, Williams is leading the Chargers in dark zone targets (6), but has yet to convert one into a score. Positive progression would put him into the end zone soon, and let’s not forget he’s an ascending deep threat with two touchdowns of 40+ yards mixed into his breakout. Williams is priced somewhat near his floor – a line around 6 catches and 90 yards would approach GPP value even without a touchdown – so he should be involved in everyone’s tournament portfolio. He’s just one of the slates’ likeliest guys to find the end zone, and considering the dynamism in play, his multi-TD appeal is strong.
If Stefon Diggs sits again, Thielen will vault into no-brainer cash-game territory. His Week 5 breakout looked real: Thielen got open at will against the Texans, both down the field and underneath, and he looks far more ready to produce than either of the team’s ballyhooed flanker options. If Diggs plays, Thielen would lose almost all of his ownership, but that would only inflame his tournament appeal. He’d likely share the No. 2 role with tight end Kyle Rudolph, and while his usage wouldn’t be predictable, the upside would far exceed his meager $3,900 salary.
Tight End
Cash Considerations
Walker should carry heavy chalk this weekend, as the Colts can’t stop anyone from compiling numbers, tight ends included. Three of their last four TE opponents have reached cash value, and none – including blocker C.J. Fiedorowicz – were woven as deeply into their team’s passing games as Walker generally is. He’s underpriced ($4,900) for such a weapon, as he’s toppled that cash marker twice in the last four weeks and seen 8 targets in another.
With Steve Smith out, Pitta steps in as Joe Flacco’s unquestioned top target. He’s drawn 18 targets over the past two weeks, so you know there’s a strong floor in place. And it seems entirely possible he soars beyond his 12-point cash marker. He’ll get to try it against a Jets defense that’s allowed a 19.2-point average to its last three TE opponents. Last week, Pitta notched his first two dark zone targets of the season, and his career resume from there (7 scores on 14 targets) is relatively strong. There’s not much explosivity potential here, but a solid worst-case with a strong discount from Walker.
Cash plays should typically follow chalk, which Barnidge doesn’t offer. He’s routinely lost in the value-TE shuffle and rarely sees cash ownership beyond 5%. But while, he’ll be locked into a handful of my cash rosters as a free square. He again needs just 9 points to bring home 3x value, and he’s registered 8.9+ in four straight games. He’s averaged 6.5 targets and 64.5 yards over that span, so he can provide great value by merely keeping the status quo.
GPP Options
Most of the DFS world will be chasing post-breakout Rob Gronkowski, and rightfully so. He did erupt all over the Bengals last weekend in such a Gronkowskian way that Bennett will be lost in the shuffle. But he’s still very much there; over the last two weeks, he’s drawn 13 targets of his own and turned them into 40.5 DraftKings points. If you’re not plugging Bennett into a few GPP lineups against the Steelers, who huff and puff in downfield TE coverage, then you’re not DFSing right.
The Steelers offense is experiencing a massive downgrade with Landry Jones under center, but James’ GPP bar (12 points) is so low he’s probably fully insulated from it. He’s entirely touchdown-dependent, but facing a Patriots defense that’s allowed GPP value to the likes of Gary Barnidge, Charles Clay, and Ryan Griffin. If James finds the end zone, he’s locked down big-time value as a pure punt.
Defense/Special Teams
Cash Considerations
New England
It starts and ends here; I try to avoid 100% exposure, even in cash contests, but this is just golden. DraftKings priced the Patriots before Ben Roethlisberger’s injury was crystal-clear, and $2,900 is absurdly low for any defense facing Landry Jones. He’s wildly inaccurate and turnover-prone, and New England’s penchant for strong scoring defense (just 11.5 points per game over its last 4) is very encouraging.
Minnesota
Road defenses are iffy, and the Eagles are a quality team. But that won’t stop me from chasing the Vikings in any lineup that can afford the premium cost. We know they’ve been aggressive to the point of suffocation – they’ve registered 19 sacks and 12 takeaways, and they’ve yet to allow more than 16 points. Carson Wentz is indeed promising, but he’s hit a wall of late, struggling on the road against two ho-hum defeses. He returns home, but it’s hard to see much productivity against the swarming Vikings.
GPP Options
Buffalo
The Dolphins offense looked prolific last week, but to be fair, the Steelers defense was banged up. Besides, that was an uncharacteristic eruption; this offense often borders on the dysfunctional. They’ve served up 11 giveaways, and Ryan Tannehill remains something of a sack machine. The Bills have recorded 3+ sacks in 5 of their 6 games, and they’ve scored 3 defensive touchdowns along the way.
